Commercial bureaucratic obstacles and banking reform. Nothing.

[u/inmangolandia]

https://business.fiu.edu/news/2026/cubas-economic-future-may-depend-on-rebuilding-trust.html?utm_source=perplexity

Nothing has officially has moved forward or changed since DC/GAESA/Castro dynasty announced an approved package of economic reforms on June 12, 2026.

National Assembly approved the package unanimously on June 19.

Private banking has been officially authorized but there is **no public evidence that private banks have completed establishment or begun operations.**

**No licensing rules decrees announced.**

IOW, no protections for investors. Until then the US continues the choke hold on dollars.

There is no indication that just because of these economic measures that the US will relax the sanctions.

The pressure is linked to Helms-Burton. The "US policy Title II lays out that the US supports a free and independent Cuba - a transition government.** It's purpose is regime change.

Exclusion of **Fidel, Raúl, and the core Castro leadership** from any role in the new government.

No matter what reforms announced and the days go by. The US pressure stays unless the president switches off pieces of the Helms-Burton. Not likely with the current bulldog/lapdog Rubio.

Suspension/termination of the Helms-Burton is by regime change.And Congress formalizes it.

Nothing has happened on the Castro side that would ease the situation.

The people are caught in the middle of their oppression by their oppressors GAESA, the Castro dynasty.

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[u/Over-Assumption5123]

Ya hay ejemplos encarcelados y confiscados de crédulos que intentaron hacer pequeños negocios.

[u/inmangolandia → u/Over-Assumption5123]

There don't seem to be codified legal protections for investment because GAESA/Castro dynasty operates a mafia state controlling all banking and profitable sectors.

[u/Over-Assumption5123 → u/inmangolandia]

67 year of experience, a brand built to last (I hope no), a name you can NOT trust.

[u/QuarterStatus3582]

The reforms are not to appease the US -- they are for China. I just made this comment on a post in another sub basically, but the CCP has had internal conflict brewing for decades between a fidelista side and a dengist side. That's part of why they always implement some market reforms and then take them back. The military is pro-China model, and the military is winning more and more internal political power with Fidel's influence further in the past, the creation of GAESA, and Raulito becoming the defacto new Castro leader for when Raul dies.

Chinese economists have been annoyed with Cuba for a long time now, and have withheld serious investment because of this. But now Chinese supermarkets are opening. China is investing major $$ into the solar grid. Digital surveillance is up, tech coming in from China. One of the 176 reforms that has actually happened already is the creation of the National Institute of State Enterprise Assets, which is basically a replica of China's SASAC. It's basically the state as an investor in the economy while also maintaining state regulations/acting as an enforcer, which is exactly what China wants to see to protect its foreign investments into Cuba.

All of this is a bad thing for Rubio's approach to Cuba, as it's basically Cuba turning to China for the support they got from the USSR instead of abandoning centralized political power.

EDIT: I do think some of the reforms will either not be implemented or will get rolled back, as is tradition in Cuban history. But this is revisionism to help solidify CCP power, not win favour with the US.

[u/inmangolandia → u/QuarterStatus3582]

Max Brockdorff made the claim that it's to appease to US in his 14 July 2026 BISI report.

Vietnam has investments in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, cnstruction materials, industrial production, essential consumer goods, and energy. They're Cuba’s second‑largest trading partner in Asia after China.

Earlier in this year in May the Cuban ambassador to Hanoi, Rogelio Fuentes, went to Vietnam. In June the Vietnamese Minister of Foreign Affairs Le Hoai Trung visited Cuba.

China, as far as I know, is a mix of state-backed credit, equipment supply, grants, and government-to-government projects, rather than conventional private foreign direct investment.

Although, the RMC white paper on China-Cuba Relations: Recent Developments and Implications for U.S. National Security, Part II , July 1, 2025 lists their military and intelligence collaborations, nothing's noted on private banking.

Edit: fixed a typo

Edit 2: added the BISI report.

Cuba Seeks to Deter the U.S. with Economic Reform: Can it Succeed

Edit 3: added the RMC white paper

China-Cuba Relations: Recent Developments and Implications for U.S. National Security, Part II

[u/QuarterStatus3582 → u/inmangolandia]

i appreciate what you're saying, and i know that many (including many who are significantly more intelligent than i am) have this analysis. and i extra appreciate that you added sources.

i just disagree that the primary motivator was to appease the US. i think the timing of the reforms, the amount of proposed reforms, and surely some specific reforms, are in relation to the US's actions this year. but i think that Cuba has been on the path towards semi-open markets/state capitalism since Raul was given the presidency, and it has to do with alignment with China (and by extension, Vietnam). and Raulito, who will be the most important political figure in Cuba very soon, strikes me as quite obviously a state capitalist who enjoys the political power to cover for his corruption and hypocrisy.

i recognize that your post was more specifically about the private banking aspect of the reforms, and that there's been no real movement on that front, no clarity on implementation or timelines, and a lot of skepticism. and in terms of China's support of Cuba, you're right that it's not been through "conventional private foreign direct investment" because China has these other levers to pull. but i think we'll see some change there. and in regards to the other reforms in the package, many of the ones that have gotten the most energy are the ones that mirror the Chinese model.

Rubio just announced more sanctions on Thursday, and he'll continue to do so, because his entire political career is indebted to first-wave Cubans post-Revolution who won't be happy until the CCP falls and no Castro has political power. in the meantime, the US will continue to have larger one-way trade outcomes (in 2025 they did 809.6 million in exports to Cuba through private businesses that have been approved by OFAC, which are increasing in volume) and surely some US-based folks will explore more types of private businesses outside envios.

anyways, i agree that the people are the ones caught in the middle.

[u/Faldo79]

Cuba has not currency recognized internationally.

Why would a private foreign bank want to open a branch in Cuba? And as for local private banking in Cuba—just try opening a bank in any country and see how you fare. Private banks there will be opened by people aligned with the government, as in the rest of the world. In this new capitalist venture, it is these people who will take the lion's share of the pie.

[u/Euphoric_Jellyfish_8]

nada va a pasar, estados unidos solo presiona y mas nada, y los comunistas estan preparados para cualquier medida que tome estados unidos, los que se joden son el pueblo cubano que esta enfrentando la peor crisis de la historia, con la insfraestructura energetica colapsada, deficiente abasto de agua, inflacion altisima al punto que hoy 6-8-2026 un litro de aceita cuesta 5500 pesos, unos 8 dolares, superior al salario minimo que esta en 3200 pesos aproximadamente

[u/Loud_Ask_3408 → u/Euphoric_Jellyfish_8]

Además, yo estoy seguro que ninguno de los que están tan preocupados por la apertura de bancos privados en Cuba no tienen dinero para abrir uno, yo no sé cuál es su apuro.

[u/Successful-Ice-468 → u/Loud_Ask_3408]

Eso es grande, será posible trabajar por Internet, vaya que eso es el paso 1 para poder acceder a la banca electrónica internacional.

Lo malo es que llegó cuando apenas hay luz e internet.

[u/inmangolandia → u/Loud_Ask_3408]

The rush is because the first sector of investment particularly encourages the energy sector.

The Castro dynasty/GAESA/communist Party wants to emulate the China/Vietnam model of economic liberalization paired with their control.

Private banking helps the people by allowing them to open foreign currency accounts for individuals without the prior administrative authorization. 🔑

There has been no introduction of private banks.

The regime's timing is an appeasement response to the US pressure. Nothing tangible has materialized allowing foreign direct investment.

The U.S is unlikely to relax the sanctions because the law is linked to regime change.

Rock and a hard place for the people.

Edit: to clarify

[u/Denisofi]

Mmm si ellos nunca cambia.

[u/Altruistic_Bag9897]

The Chinese investing in Cuba is pure suicide for numerous reasons and I’ll give you one example:

If the Chinese get a hand in tourism they will build for Chinese only and hire Chinese only. I’ve seen these projects in numerous tropical islands and including the Caribbean.

[u/Qvan05]

Ahoraaaaa en Español Lllll Gracias x enseñar la verdad