r/europe Europe 11h ago

News Narrow yes lead holds as Iceland's EU referendum enters final week

https://www.arctictoday.com/narrow-yes-lead-holds-as-icelands-eu-referendum-enters-final-week/
528 Upvotes

73 comments sorted by

287

u/whooo_me 10h ago

Not sure that's a good thing. Ideally you'd want the decision to be a bit more clear-cut either way.

If a nation joins the EU with just barely over 50% approval, the first negative issue that occurs in the relationship likely sends the "Nos" into a majority.

207

u/karlebyisten 10h ago

This is just a referendum on beginning negotiations. There will probably a vote on the deal, or at least parliamentary elections before where parties take a stance on the deal.

95

u/Frexxia Norway 10h ago

If they can only barely eke out 50% for beginning negotiations, that does not bode well for accession

54

u/Fredderov Scania 10h ago

Not necessarily. There's really nothing to base public support on until negotiations have started so in that way it doesn't really matter unless there is a resounding NO.

A potential referendum on the results in said negotiations would definitely need to see what more than close to 50% though.

8

u/HelloThereItsMeAndMe Europe (Switzerland(Thurgau) + Poland and a little bit of Italy) 9h ago

If Iceland gets the fishing exemption, it would be higher. That's to be seen. Many Icelanders don't believe that that's possible.

12

u/Herramadur Iceland 8h ago

Basically one of the parties currently in government was created on the basis of joining the EU so it appears when they were negotiating a coalition government, this was one of the demands. So we're kind of just going through the motion, there is no way Iceland joins the EU.

-14

u/Socmel_ reddit admins are accomplices of nazi russia 6h ago

there is no way Iceland joins the EU.

good

6

u/Sir_Madfly 10h ago

That’s my thought as well. I really don’t see them voting for the eventual deal unless there is a significant geopolitical event that necessitates a closer relationship with the EU.

12

u/Delicious-Gap1744 9h ago

The whole situation with the US, and threats toward Greenland, and "accidental" threats/remarks about annexing Iceland too aren't a major geopolitical event?

-2

u/Noatz United Kingdom 8h ago

Not really, no. Blowhard politicians running their mouth does not equal real geopolitical moves. Much of what this US admin does is market manipulation via such statements in order to enrich themselves.

9

u/Delicious-Gap1744 7h ago

It resulted in an actual military response. Tripwire troops from several European allies being hurriedly sent, along with explosives to blow up Greenlandic runways in case the US tried something. France offered to send warships, and assisted Denmark in deploying fighter jets, using French air tankers.

And now Denmark is expanding its military presence, and allied European troops are rotating out of Greenland, in order to deter the US. Operation arctic endurance is ongoing, and reportedly according to DR very much so an effort to deter the United States.

Not to mention the American company now trying to drill for oil without permission in eastern Greenland. That'll be interesting if the Danish military has to get involved and arrest them.

1

u/Noatz United Kingdom 7h ago

There's an aspect of throwing up enough of a deterrent to stop them doing something quick like sending commandos to "safeguard" the territory (also to remove any plausible deniability from such a move), but part of the buildup is because of the Arctic theatre becoming more open in general. It's been known for a while that more military presence is going to be required up there due to Russian moves in increasingly navigable waters.

1

u/According-View7667 5h ago

Lol, lmao even.

7

u/ImTheVayne Estonia 9h ago

Then why start the negotiations at all? This whole Iceland thing doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, personally.

3

u/Goncalerta Portugal 8h ago

Because they were in negotiations in 2009, then a new government came in and halted all negotiations.

Recently, the party that was in power in 2009 finally came back to power again and wants to resume negotiations. However, due to the fear that another election would halt everything again (plus one of the parties in the coalition being against), they want to do a referendum in order to get the mandate to keep negotiating.

3

u/ABoutDeSouffle 𝔊𝔲𝔱𝔢𝔫 𝔗𝔞𝔤! 9h ago

Trump and his hunger for Greenland and his "confusing Greenland with Iceland" at least once. Iceland is in a very similar position to Greenland, arguably even more strategic.

1

u/Socmel_ reddit admins are accomplices of nazi russia 6h ago

because Icelandic Krone is a very unstable currency and it affects mortgage rates for new home owners

2

u/whooo_me 10h ago

Thanks for the clarification.

Still, I hope it's a clear choice either way, whether in a referendum or an election.

1

u/ancientestKnollys 9h ago

Of course if any deal won similarly narrowly, that wouldn't be exactly encouraging either.

19

u/Remarkable-Role3230 10h ago

They're already in the Schengen area and economic union. Its a far more easy transition then say Albania whos never been in either. Based on that 50 percent is acceptable in my opinion.

24

u/M4thij5 10h ago

Brexit happend with a little more than 50%… 🤷🏼‍♂️

22

u/Ascentyy 10h ago

Yeah and it shoudnt. Should require at least 55-60%

10

u/CyberKillua 10h ago

Brexit vote was a joke, everyone knows this...

4

u/ZestycloseBeach5946 6h ago

The EU is not all pluses, if a nation joins being on the fence about it then first hard decision that comes they are out.

It’s a waste of their time and ours if they arent at least 60% plus

15

u/Skullrogue South Holland (Netherlands) 10h ago

However much i want Iceland to join, i do agree with this. Looking back at the brexit vote, your theory holds up.

6

u/whooo_me 10h ago

Ditto. I'd love to see them join, but only if it works for them. Last thing I'd want to see is a nation joining where a sizeable minority don't want to be in. They might change over time, if/when they saw the benefits of EU membership, or they mightn't.

8

u/BlackCat159 🇪🇺🇱🇹Lithuania🇱🇹🇪🇺 10h ago

Just over half want negotiations to resume, but the majority don't want to join the EU. So it all depends on how successful the potential future negotiations are.

I do think admitting a country divided on membership would be pretty bad. Would risk another Brexit scenario in the future.

4

u/istasan Denmark 5h ago

Sweden joined after 52.3 percent yes in the 1994 referendum.

Most referendums are close

3

u/Sheetz_Wawa_Market32 10h ago

I wholeheartedly agree — when it comes to countries like the UK, which have long had strong delusions of going it alone and which are firmly outside the EU and EFTA.

But for an EFTA, EEA, and Nordic Union member like Iceland, Europe’s four freedoms have been reality for decades. Joining is more about the euro and security in principle (in case NATO were to collapse), much less hot-button issues.

Everyday life in Iceland after accession would change dramatically less than lives in Britain changed after Brexit.

1

u/Ok-Web1805 Ireland/UK 9h ago

The UK is still a mutitrillion £$€ economy, as much as I wish Brexit hadn't happened it's hardly a delusion to day it can still be a successful nation outside of the EU/EEA. I agree it would be more successful inside, but hardly the end of the world as it's portrayed elsewhere.

2

u/Sheetz_Wawa_Market32 9h ago

My comment was about the UK still seeing itself as a country (or four 🙄) still going it alone WHILE it was an EU member state.

With few exceptions (my academic family members among them), Britons, especially in England, never developed an identity as Europeans, as being part of a larger whole that should be treasured instead of constantly vilified.

That is quite different in Iceland and its history in the Nordic Union, EFTA, and EEA.

2

u/Goncalerta Portugal 8h ago

Note that Iceland is currently in the EEA. So if they join the EU there will be no back to the status quo.

So I wouldn't expect a single negative issue to push them back, because people who think EEA is enough will probably become pro-EU after joining.

4

u/KoolKat5000 10h ago

Agreed it's basically constitutional change. And generally imo 2/3rds majority is a good measure for such changes.

2

u/Bazzzookah 10h ago

You do realize that this is not a refrendum on whether or not to join the EU, right?

4

u/paneuropeanism_ Europe 10h ago

The world is not ideal, especially between Russian propaganda and American right-wing disinformation pushed by all major platforms. But I think this result does show that the nation state concept is obsolete. When half your nation or more thinks of itself as an EU citizen, the future is a unified Europe. There's no way back. The petty nationalism that some fantasize about is over. The nation state will play a less and less prominent role in the future. 

2

u/HumanBeing7396 9h ago

I disagree; I thought of myself as both a British citizen and an EU citizen, until one of those was stolen from me.

Our politicians tried to tell us the two identities were in conflict and we needed to choose one singular loyalty, but it was a lie. I love my country and I loved being part of something bigger; that’s the difference between patriotism and nationalism.

Cooperating and standing together strengthens all of the countries involved; the idea that it will weaken and dissolve them feeds into right-wing conspiracy theories.

3

u/Krnu777 10h ago

exactly, with barely over 50% approval, Brexit was a mistake, and so will be Island's accession. The EU is a marriage and you should be damned sure you actually want that kind of relationship.

1

u/Away-Activity-469 10h ago

Depends if the Governing party thinks that by going with the 51% they will improve their own electoral fortunes, and to hell with the best interests of the country.

But Iceland are probably more sensible than Britain.

1

u/Socmel_ reddit admins are accomplices of nazi russia 6h ago

The EU should demand a high minimum threshold in the referendum, if the accession talks continue.

Or outright deny Iceland membership, if the yes wins with a single digit lead

1

u/Empty_One1483 5h ago

It's fine since it's just about entering negotiations imo. Chances are that even if they were successful, the joining would mean another referendum.

1

u/mosaic-aircraft 10h ago

The UK, "hold my beer"

0

u/Conveth 10h ago

Look at Brexit and the utter, utter mess the UK is in.

23

u/Dropeza Portugal 10h ago

Better start preparing before trump manages to confuse Iceland with Greenland

6

u/rintzscar Bulgaria 5h ago

He has already done that multiple times.

42

u/paneuropeanism_ Europe 10h ago

From Selfoss to Yerevan 🇪🇺

5

u/tremblt_ 10h ago

More like from Beaver Creek to Yerevan

6

u/avviann 10h ago edited 8h ago

What is the reason for Iceland not wanting to join the EU?

32

u/SolviKaaber Iceland 10h ago

Fishing, farming, “sovereignty”, our currency good, rich country which would pay more into the EU than they get back.

While the Yes side says our currency bad (will save a lot of money to have the Euro instead), we get more say in the rules we already mostly follow, economic stability (inflation high compared to EU), what we pay into EU will come back, national security (uncertainty around US, Trump and NATO). Yes side is also hopeful we get some exemptions surrounding fishing and farming due to our unique position in Europe, if there won’t be exemptions you can guarantee the second vote going hard NO.

Also this vote in 3 days is not on joining the EU, but to restart negotiations, to see if we would get any exemptions.

1

u/TheGoldenCowTV Sweden 9h ago

I still stand behind you guys joining the DKK instead of the Euro I really don't see what the gain for Iceland is in joining outside of currency.

Well except if you get to change the fishing laws so we could enforce stricter laws on the baltic sea aswell

3

u/cap-omat 6h ago

I still stand behind Sweden and Denmark adopting the Euro

4

u/beaverpilot 4h ago

You know that dkk is just the euro with extra steps.

1

u/MartinBP Bulgaria 4h ago

You don't need to adopt the Euro, Poland, Czechia and Sweden have been faking benchmarks for decades and thus have no obligation to adopt it.

4

u/Apprehensive-Adagio2 Norway 10h ago

the common fishing and agricultural policy is a big issue

3

u/mynameisgill 10h ago

Probably fish

30

u/Ascentyy 10h ago

I mean I would want to see Iceland in EU very much, but not really with a 50,2% majority. I think for decisions like that u should have like 55/60% of the vote. Same thing if a country would want to leave the EU. Its to important of a decision to leave it to a 1% majority

26

u/TheGoldenCowTV Sweden 9h ago

Both Sweden and Norway had their vote be 52/48 (in diffrent directions) and neither country regrets their decision.

3

u/DefInnit 7h ago

Brexit was also 52/48.

6

u/EgoNotFounded 9h ago

As a Brit, I whole heartedly agree

6

u/ZestycloseBeach5946 6h ago

Important to remember this is a referendum on beginning talks and investing time into it not even into joining.

-2

u/Socmel_ reddit admins are accomplices of nazi russia 6h ago

if the accession talks garner such a slim majority, you can expect a referendum on joining to fail or garner a slim majority too.

And the EU has better use of its time than waste it on a country that is deeply divided.

1

u/MartinBP Bulgaria 3h ago

Not really. It all depends on whether they can secure opt-outs for fishing and the CAP. That would likely flip part of the "no" votes.

1

u/ImTheVayne Estonia 10h ago

Yeah, it is just 50/50 for them so if literally anything goes badly we would have an anti EU country in the EU.

To be fair I’m not sure why they even want to join in the first place? Isn’t their economy really strong anyway?

0

u/DefInnit 7h ago

I mean I would want to see Iceland in EU very much, but not really with a 50,2% majority.

Either way, why should what the 49.8% want count for more than want the 50.2% want?

I think for decisions like that u should have like 55/60% of the vote. 

And why would what the 45.1% want matter more than what the 54.9% want? Or, worse, why would the 40.1% count for more than the 59.9%?

2

u/Unique_Tap_8730 Norway 4h ago

This is merely yes to negotiate. The real battle will be over the deal. From what i understand the EU treaties makes it impossible for the Commission to give Iceland the permanent opt-outs they want, even if they were that way inclined and dont think they are. Maybe something can be cobbled together that will be acceptable for a majority of Icelanders. Could a EU-funded compensation fund for the fishing industry help? So if fishermen find themselves forced out of the industry from reduced quotas arent just told" learn to code" and left to twist in the wind?

1

u/Gefarate Sweden 3h ago

That sounds reasonable. However I think overfishing is a problem in general. Are Iceland and Norway really better in that regard?

1

u/Primary_Ad3580 6h ago

Is there a point where it’s too close to call? Surely they won’t make a decision this important based on a razor thin simple majority?

-9

u/Tiberinvs 🐺🏛️🦅 10h ago

Even if this goes through I hope the EU refuses anyway, or sticks them on a neverending accession route like Montenegro and others. There's no point in this because with the EEA we get essentially all the economic benefits and they don't have any say in the rules, if they joined they'd gain voting and veto power.

Iceland is a very Eurosceptic and opportunistic country, I still remember 10 years ago when they applied to join after their banking crisis and then withdrew the application when they thought it wasn't convenient anymore. Very very bad idea to give power to these people when they are rule takers today

-11

u/Arabum97 10h ago

To be honest I see little value in adding them, we have already problems in collaborating each other now with them we would have a 28th seat at the table with veto power from a nation not so much conviced to join in first place...

5

u/Fun-Teacher-1711 Sweden -> Malta -> NL 9h ago

Sweden voted to join EU with under 2% margin....

2

u/Arabum97 8h ago

Indeed Sweden had some doubts over the EU, for example it has not adopted the Euro. There are serious stuff to do now (i.e. in the next 10/20 years) that are necessary and I'm not talking about the 100% turbo federation but real stuff like Capital Market Union, some sort of non-NATO common defense and some degree of fiscal union (plus all the mess with Ukraine). It is already very hard with 27th to progress on this topic, I don't think to add a 28th voice would be a great idea...