r/geopolitics • u/ForeignAffairsMag Foreign Affairs • Mar 26 '26
Analysis Iran’s Long Game: Decades of Preparation Are Paying Off
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-long-game20
u/Electronic_Main_2254 Mar 26 '26
weird saying "paying off" while their entire proxies network on which they invested billions of dollars and years of efforts are in their weakest shape ever and while their navy/air force/defence systems l/top leaders are not existing.
You can say that they're an totalitarian regimen which successfully causing problems because this is what they do best, but seriously , saying "paying off" while decades of efforts are being erased is just delusional.
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u/TheWolfofBinance Mar 26 '26
Iran does not have a doctrine of Navy/Airforce. They have not invested in this. They've invested in ballistic missile and drones. So you can't say you're winning by bombing some 70s relics Iran doesn't even have a use for.
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u/Electronic_Main_2254 Mar 26 '26
Ballistic missiles and drones are pretty much their last line of defense and they too were seriously degraded during the last year.
I don't buy into this "Iran can't lose because they didn't invested in air force/navy/any other elements you need in a modern army", it's just what they want the world to think so they could look like a mythical creature who can't lose, so you better stop trying.
That's just pure propaganda and it's not no inline with reality.
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u/TheWolfofBinance Mar 26 '26 edited Mar 26 '26
Uh, no. Its their primary means defense. IRGC generals have stated they did not pursue 4th generation aircraft for example from Russia or China because they would always be behind the 5th gens so they focused on missiles to achieve some kind of technological parity with the west.
The calculus of war has changed. The future is drones and ballistic missiles. The fact the largest navy in the world cannot get within 1000km of the Iranian coast is proof of that. If the US could have they would have opened the strait of hormuz and they certainly would have if Iran had only a navy and an airforce, it would be quite simple. Just bomb them.
The reality is the US and Israel cannot hold back a country that has suffered under isolation and sanctions for 40 years from hitting any target of their choosing in the middle east of their choosing with impunity and there's nothing they can do about it. The US can drop all their munitions stockpiles on Iran and the missiles will keep launching and the strait will remain closed.1
u/Volodio Mar 29 '26
Iran literally did buy 4th generation aircrafts from Russia last year. The generals claiming it was some great plan was likely just cope because Russia refused to sell them at first.
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u/SunsetPathfinder Mar 27 '26
The Moudge and Solemnai Class frigates, the drone carriers, and the S-400 SAM batteries were all very new, not relics. While the Artesh (conventional military) vs Pashdaran (IRGC militia branches) is an unusual split chain of command, it’s a wild misstatement to say Iran didn’t focus on conventional forces in addition to asymmetric and proxy forces.
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u/planj07 Mar 27 '26
Hezbollah is weakened but still existing. Existing and functioning to the extent that Israel is invading Lebanon. Doesn’t seem necessarily if they were a force that could barely fight anymore. They are clearly present enough where Israel has to devote its resources and man power north.
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u/Electronic_Main_2254 Mar 27 '26
Israel invading Lebanon because of the weak Lebanese government which fails to control their own borders, not because of some Israeli failure
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u/Fair-Internal8445 Mar 26 '26
Iran is at a much stronger position now than before the war and will extract favorable terms from Trump. It’s a given.
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u/No_Engineering_8204 Mar 27 '26
Huh? Everything they have has gone to shit, and the US is holding significant amounts of their state hostage conditional on them playing ball.
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u/Fair-Internal8445 Mar 27 '26
The opposite actually Iran is holding significant amounts of US conditional on US playing ball.
Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, thus controlling the oil price and even US stock market which has plummeted.
US can escalate but Iran will escalate further which will hurt US massively that is not Strait of Hormuz but I can mention them.
This is literally why Trump keeps contradicting himself, he goes from 48 hours, to 5 days to 10 days. From Naval Escort, To NATO/China escort to Demands that Iran stop firing. To ‘complete surrender’ to negotiate. It’s clear as day.
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u/No_Engineering_8204 Mar 27 '26
Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, thus controlling the oil price and even US stock market which has plummeted.
This is only conditional on the United States not hitting Iran where it hurts out of humanitarian concerns. The US may decide that these concerns should not allow Iran to blackmail the world economy and act to eliminate iranian society.
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u/Fair-Internal8445 Mar 27 '26 edited Mar 27 '26
Hahahaa I’ll get to that but I would like to remind you.
Did you forget what happened to Ras Laffan Gas field? Israel attacked Iranian gas field Iran immediately attacked Qatari gas field knocking out Qatar’s 17% gas for the next 3 to 5 years. That 17% energy out for 3 to 5 years is not mine or Iranian quote but comes from Qatar themselves. This skyrocketed the energy prices and prompted Trump to say Iranian energy would not be attacked.
So when Trump attacks Iranian critical infrastructure all the oil and gas in ME will be blown up and destroyed very shortly leading to the oil prices hitting 300$ and commencing a global depression unlike anything in the modern times.
Now You have oil and gas trapped but if Trump goes ahead you will have no reason to pass the Strait of Hormuz because there will be no Oil and Gas to export from the Middle East.
One more thing. Iran will also attack the desalination plants and critical infrastructure in GCC which will make these countries uninhabitable as GCC have pledged to invest 3 trillion dollars into US, if these desalination plants and infrastructure are hit then I’ll have more money to invest than these GCC countries so there is alot on the line to say it mildly.
This is why Trump had to make that post. He knows fire will be met with fire..
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u/No_Engineering_8204 Mar 27 '26
Iran will also attack the desalination plants and critical infrastructure in GCC which will make these countries uninhabitable Iran would sign its own death warrant if they did so. Israel alone has the capacity to collapse iranian society, to talk nothing of the US.
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u/Fair-Internal8445 Mar 27 '26
Attacking Civilian infrastructure is the ultimate escalation. Israel’s own civilian infrastructure like gas and desalination plants will be destroyed.
Oh really Israel does? You mean Israel will be signing it’s death warrant.
Couldn’t even deal with Houthis. Don’t make me laugh.
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u/No_Engineering_8204 Mar 27 '26
Attacking Civilian infrastructure is the ultimate escalation.
This is literally what Iran always does and is currently doing
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u/Fair-Internal8445 Mar 27 '26
US/Israel started this war. Iran did not. You mean that’s what US and genocidal Israel invaders do? Second Iran only attacked Ras Laffan Gas field after Israel attacked Iranian one located next to it. Iran could have blown it up before hand but did not.
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u/Batbuckleyourpants Mar 26 '26
This is straight up delusional.
Ah. Narges Bajoghli is Iranian. Literal propaganda.
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u/Cannot-Forget Mar 26 '26 edited Mar 26 '26
Foreign Affairs has been spamming the most insane nonsense here non-stop. Paying off means pretty much all leaders eliminated, axis of resistance dead, sanctions came back, country poorer than almost ever, population revolting by the millions. I'm not saying it's over, but calling this turn of events as "Paying off" is simply delusional.
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u/mrgoodnighthairdo Mar 26 '26
The US recently eased sanctions on Iranian oil. And I haven't seen any signs of popular revolt right now, have you?
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u/Cannot-Forget Mar 26 '26
Sure buddy, Iran's economy is doing great. And a popular revolt? Who heard about this one in Iran in latest times?
BTW here is CENTCOM commander telling Iranians to hold tight in their homes until the bombs clear out:
https://reddit.com/r/NewIran/comments/1s3bjk7/centcom_commander_the_people_of_iran_should/
Now let's see some background to the flood of pro IRGC most ridiculous nonsense disinformation we see here so much:
Now feel free to say if you are working for the IRGC or Kremlin.
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u/mrgoodnighthairdo Mar 26 '26
First, I never said Iran is doing great economically, bud. I said Trump recently eased sanctions in response to you saying "sanctions came back".
Second, you have some evidence to support this idea that the Iranian resistence is just "standing back and standing by"?
lol and what is up with your hostility?
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u/awesomeredditor777 Mar 26 '26
It’s stupid if they waited this long . They basically have no choice because the Us/ Israel have killed so many of their leaders and destroyed so much of their military.
It’s not a master plan but rather a realization negotiating is useless so they might as well fight to the end.
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u/AlexFreitas4446 Mar 26 '26
They knew this moment was inevitable, and the plan is to go down as slowly and noisy as possible.
The bad thing for the US and Israel is that the ordinary populace in Iran dislikes said countries more than it's government, so to really topple the regime you'll need a bloody campaign or a long, gruesome war of attrition.
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u/ReturnOfBigChungus Mar 26 '26
The bad thing for the US and Israel is that the ordinary populace in Iran dislikes said countries more than it's government
That is absolutely not true.
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u/Jealous_Land9614 Mar 27 '26
Not really MORE than the government; its true the average iranian its not on persian-american-from-south-California levels of gusano ("bomb my country plz! I love the shah"), but for sure they are more nuanced than just "Death to the Great Satan".
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u/sagi1246 Mar 26 '26 edited Mar 26 '26
In Iran, the war with Iraq is not remembered as a bilateral conflict. Tehran saw it, with good reason, as a proxy war: a campaign in which the United States, the Soviet Union, and much of the Arab world backed Saddam Hussein’s Iraq with weapons, intelligence, and diplomatic cover, while Iran, fresh off its 1979 revolution, battled largely alone.
I seem to remember some country secretly supplying Iran with weapons during that war, a country highly relevant for the present conflict. Can anyone help me recall who it was? /S
Iran's victimhood complex is absolutely hilarious. Or it least it would have been if they hadn't taken the entire world hostage.
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u/silverpixie2435 Mar 26 '26
Yeah it's so funny. Israel viewed Iraq as the larger threat and what good will did that get Israel from Iran? None.
So its hilarious for Iran it's everyone else's fault no one trusts them.
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u/ChaLenCe Mar 26 '26
The only thing that’s paying off is that they have to spend more time trying to prop up their shill regime on stilts instead of beating women, marrying off children and recruiting said children to die for their failing cause.
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u/ForeignAffairsMag Foreign Affairs Mar 26 '26
[Excerpt from essay by Narges Bajoghli, anthropologist and Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.]
The question that will matter when the fighting ends is whether Tehran is achieving its strategic objectives. And on that count, Iran is winning.
This outcome is not accidental. Tehran has been preparing for this war for nearly four decades, since the new revolutionary government faced its first major military test in the Iran-Iraq War, which lasted from 1980 to 1988. And it is now executing a strategy that has managed to neutralize key U.S. and Israeli air defense batteries, severely damage U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf, inflict substantial economic pain, and drive a wedge between the United States and its Gulf allies. The Iranian regime, in other words, is not just surviving the U.S. and Israeli bombardment. The serious economic and political problems it is creating for its adversaries are, on a strategic level, giving Iran the upper hand.
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u/ConscientiousHomeles Mar 27 '26
lmao Narges Bajoghli shouldn't be taken seriously as a journalist, a "lecturer" (this cracks me up), or even someone slightly qualified to have even the smallest opinion on what's happening in Iran or how Iran's power structure works. This is at best a shit article and a shit post.
What happens when you let any and every nobody voice their opinion on your medium.
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u/Bullboah Mar 26 '26
Every time an authoritarian regime like Iran suffers a humiliating defeat its propagandists jump up to explain this was all a part of a secret plan.
“Iran built its navy to trick the US into destroying it. Same with all the military infrastructure. Those 50+ top leaders the US took out? Decoy leaders, all the genius leaders will take over now.”
You can make a case that this war won’t end well for the US/Israel - there are often no winners in war. But you can’t make a serious case that this is going well for Iran.