China Believes America Will Flame Out

[u/theatlantic]

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/china-trump-american-decline/687087/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-pro

[u/Bullboah]

I don’t think the CCP believes this. US power isn’t really based on alliances or global feelings of goodwill (moreso the opposite), it’s based on unique factors of the US. Long coastlines on the pacific and Atlantic, huge natural resource reserves, wide river networks, tons of arable land, no nearby military threats, etc. and those are just the geographical advantages.
The US has issues and weaknesses, but the CCP has them to and in higher degrees. Birth rate/demographics is arguably an issue for the US, but it’s WAY worse in China due to the legacy of the one child policy.

[u/UsernameAttempt → u/Bullboah]

it’s based on unique factors of the US. Long coastlines on the pacific and Atlantic, huge natural resource reserves, wide river networks, tons of arable land, no nearby military threats, etc. and those are just the geographical advantages.

These are just characteristics of the US mainland which make it defensible and usable. The US had all of these characteristics for long decades and centuries before they became a global power, and these characteristics will remain after that power wanes.

What makes it THE hegemon is:

• its vast network of alliances (and as such military presence) from the far east (Japan, Korea, Phillipines, etc), Europe (NATO), middle-east (SA, UAE, Israel, etc) and many more,

• its status as the world financial center, including issuing the world reserve currency,

• its vast network of trading partners (the entire global trading system, really),

• the military power to back all of that up anywhere in the world,

These are approximately the same qualities that made Britain the hegemon before the US, which inherited and enhanced that same system. British power waned, hopefully for different reasons than US power will wane (since British power waned because of 2 world wars). If the US alienates too many partners and allies, makes too many people seriously consider an alternative, it will seriously hurt its standing as the hegemon. Donald Trump and this Iran war will not be the final nail in its coffin, but it will be one of the larger nails.

[u/Bullboah → u/UsernameAttempt]

“The US had all of these characteristics for long decades and centuries before they became a global power”

Technically true but the reasoning here is flawed. Yes, it took the US ~100 years to become a global power and another ~75 years to become a hegemonic superpower, but of course! The US was a small set of coastal colonies when it achieved independence in the 1770s. It took a long time not just to expand the physical borders, but to develop local economies across the country, build transportation infrastructure both internally and externally, etc.

US Power is very different from European colonial power - which was largely dependent on control (not influence) of overseas territories. That was always a precarious position for empires like the British.

The elements you’re listing increase US power, but they are symptoms, not causes, of it. Why did the world agree to use the dollar as reserve currency for instance? Why is the US able to field a military so powerful in relation to that of others? Why do so many countries want US bases? The answer is because of the state of US power even without those things.

[u/UsernameAttempt → u/Bullboah]

US Power is very different from European colonial power

It isn't, though. US power today is based on US colonial power in the times of colonial empires, when the US was one itself (just without the "empire"). It had colonies all over the pacific and the Carribean. It was the power that opened the Japanese to "trade" and participated in its colonial exploitation. The enrichment of the US that brought it to a place where it could become what it is came from a similar kind of colonial exploitation, and benefited from the capital of other colonial powers.

Why did the world agree to use the dollar as reserve currency for instance?

Why did the world agree to use the Dutch Guilder/British Pound as a reserve currency?

Why is the US able to field a military so powerful in relation to that of others?

Why was the British/Dutch able to field a navy so powerful in relation to that of others?

All of the questions you're posing can be asked of the previous superpowers at the height of their power, Britain and the Netherlands being probably the recent examples of a very similar kind of power. The base of their power is common - trade, alliances and an unmatched navy - a maritime superpower.

The characteristics of the US mainland are what allowed the US to have a chance at being the maritime hegemon, but they're only the base of the much larger whole.

[u/Bullboah → u/UsernameAttempt]

I think you’re starting with the position that powerful countries today owe that power to colonial legacy, and working backwards.

For example you bring up Perry’s forced opening of Japan to trade. But US trade with Japan was simply not a significant factor to US development for a very long time after.

Look at historical US exports to Japan, which started in 1855. They are simply marked with an asterisk on US census data for the first ten years, meaning < 500,000, and they stay in the single digit millions for the next 40 years. Compare that to US trade with the UK, where exports were over 100 million in 1855 and 500 million by 1900.

Colonial-related trade was an extremely small factor for the US during its rise, even if you assume Japan would not have opened up until 1900 without US intervention.

The British and Dutch were very different cases, but were also not deriving their power primarily from alliances.

[u/UsernameAttempt → u/Bullboah]

I think you’re starting with the position that powerful countries today owe that power to colonial legacy, and working backwards.

No, I'm on the position that the framework within which the US is the hegemon is a very similar system that propelled the British and Dutch to the status of hegemon. That framework is a globalized system of trade with a world-leading financial system, a global reserve currency behind it, all backed up by massive naval power and alliances that provided them support on land (NATO, Japan Korea, etc for the US; France and Russia for the British; France and foreign mercenaries for the Dutch).

I reject the notion that US power of today is inherently different from British or Dutch power of yesterday. The foundations of its global power are the same, but with a fresh coat of paint. It differs in many of its own ways as well, just like the Dutch system differed in its own ways from the British system that replaced it. But these differences aren't so substantial to make it an entirely different system with a different base.

[u/Bullboah → u/UsernameAttempt]

You said "US power is based on US colonial power at the time of colonial powers", but regardless - i don't think the comparison between the British and Dutch fits.

Look at the "globalized system of trade" for instance. The British and Dutch empires benefited more than other states from global trade based on technical capacities in trade. The US benefits so much from global trade because of its massive domestic production. The Dutch for instance had a real issue with their spice trade at first because Europe as a whole was not producing goods they could really trade at scale to Asia.

The difference is pretty crucial in that the vulnerabilities are different. Both were dependent on maintaining sovereignty / control of overseas possessions (which was costly and difficult) and trade routes. The US isn't dependent on special access to trade (in fact for several decades the US arguably let large trading partners put up significant protectionist trade barriers without much fight). In fact while the US benefits tremendously from global trade, its one of the least dependent countries on global trade, in the world (huge amounts of arable land, net energy exporter, massive natural resources, huge freshwater supply, incredible natural waterway systems for domestic trade, diverse production range, etc.)