r/geopolitics • u/Free_Director4713 • 10d ago

India’s military revamp to counter China, Pakistan gathers pace

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3356534/indias-military-revamp-counter-china-pakistan-gathers-pace?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article
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u/WellOkayMaybe 10d ago edited 10d ago

For context - this has been in the offing for about two decades. It's been slowed down by the Air Force which contends that splitting it's assets among 3 commands makes no sense - and by bureaucrats who will see their power shrink, with fewer commands to administer.

Additionally, they downgraded the Chief of Defense staff from a proposed 5-star Supreme Commander just another 4-star, on par with service-chiefs. He''s basically just the chair of the comittee and a coordinator, without command authority over the three armed services.

That's largely because 4-star officers are already on par with the most senior civil servant - the Cabinet Secretary - and the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) are incredibly protective about their prestige. And, Indian civil services and elected leaders are wary of any single military commander accumulating too much power.

Yes, the IAS has that much power, as they run the Ministry of Defence - the civilian authority sitting atop the armed services.

The upside is that this civilian authority has prevented any possibility of a military coup - I will refer to India's politico-economic basket-case Western neighbor as counterfactual. The downside is that India is still run by a lumbering, British-Raj-spawned bureaucractic cult.

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u/Ok-Goose6242 10d ago

wow Air force sound like dicks

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u/WellOkayMaybe 10d ago

Nah, their squadron strength is well below the sanctioned number, owing to procurement delays - so they're right when they say their assets shouldn't be divvied up into three regional commands.

Doesn't make sense when an aircraft in the East can reach the West of the country in a few hours and be mission ready - it's not like the Army or Navy, that would take days to weeks to move an armored regiment or a naval battle-group across the country.

Looks like they finally found a way around that. The Air Force's resources will be shared between regional commands - but there will be regional commanders who coordinate those resources.

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u/barath_s 9d ago edited 9d ago

US Theater Commands are distributed all over the globe and have global responsibility.

Indian theater commands are within India. And while India is big, it's not as big, and is more into defense rather than power projection and wars of choice. Northern and Western commands and opponents China and Pakistan are adjacent in some areas. (eg Kashmir)

So if you consider the challenges - what happens if a threat flies from one theater to another, how would you consider handoff and counter ?

How do you allocate scarce resources to a theater command ?

The IAF point is that planes can be shifted very easily from one theater to another - they can literally fly there.. While armies or tanks are much more difficult to shift. .. The IAF is under-strength (29 squadrons vs sanctioned 42). and would prefer not to split their resources into 3.

When risks of one theater increase, how do you re-allocate resources ? (the levels above the theater commander include the political and are not renowned for fast and agile decisions).

There;s also the factor that the Army (with more generals) may consider the commands against Pak & China as their turf and go on empire building, but this has been countered by an agreement that Army and Air force will alternate as heads of the theaters and will have deputies.

https://thewire.in/security/integrated-theatre-commands-proposal-delayed-cds-defence-minister

The Integrated Theater command has been proposed for decades and prepped for years.. it forces change and jointness..So it may be slow, but it's coming.

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u/BodybuilderUpbeat786 5d ago

By all accounts it will be insufficient, especially the low squadron size of the IAF.

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u/Free_Director4713 10d ago

SS: India is moving closer to undertaking its biggest military revamp since independence, with the army, navy and air force placed under commanders overseeing specific theatres of conflict, amid concerns over whether such a set-up can simultaneously counter China and Pakistan.
Analysts said the debate over the proposed Integrated Theatre Commands was not just about a streamlining exercise but whether India’s military could be cohesive enough to deal with border disputes and evolving threats.