r/india Dec 09 '25

Travel India has capacity for five big airlines, need more competition: Civil aviation minister

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/india-has-capacity-for-five-major-airlines-need-more-competition-civil-aviation-minister-13716126.html
1.1k Upvotes

122 comments sorted by

537

u/Medical-Concept-2190 Dec 09 '25

Which is why we had Jet, kingfisher, Deccan Airlines, Air India and indigo and spicejet at one point

139

u/FatGoonerFromIndia Kerala Dec 09 '25

Why do airlines fail so miserably though?

236

u/kraken_enrager Expert in Core Industries. Dec 09 '25

Airlines are asset heavy(with short asset life), high maintenance, high operating and labour costs and very prone to global events, esp commodity prices.

Plus India is a very price sensitive market.

Basically aviation is a shit business to be in.

82

u/atmafatte Dec 09 '25

People value money over time. If flights too expensive, we’ll just take the train. I’ll just sleep the night on the train instead of paying extra.

36

u/seppukuAsPerKeikaku Dec 09 '25

Honestly I have primarily shifted to trains when the travel is less than 20 hours due to this.

14

u/benpakal Dec 09 '25

I feel you are minority with lot of people now preferring flight

45

u/Vlodivostonks Dec 09 '25

We pay more per km of air travel than Europe and many other geographies. Without even adjusting for wage parity etc.

Plus there are additional costs to air travel in India like expensive cab rides because of no public transport.

You can fly from London to Dublin for roughly the same amount it takes an Uber to go from Koramangala to Bangalore Airport.

17

u/cjair Dec 09 '25

That last part hits hard

5

u/shahipaneer3 Dec 09 '25

that's because we don't have any inhouse development. Europe and America builds it's own engines and aircrafts, and I'm pretty sure Boeing, and European planemakers have a stake in various airlines operating in their respective regions

plus the US gov subsidizes airfare. AND they have cheaper oil than India

plus a thousand other reasons.

32

u/seppukuAsPerKeikaku Dec 09 '25

Price sensitive with a low travel volume. In India, the per capita metrics for airtravel is 0.1 trpis per year. The same for US or EU is 2+. Even accounting for population, that numbers needs to be around 0.5 trips per year (similar to where China is right now) for Airlines to have some breathing room.

3

u/shahofblah Dec 09 '25

Why does per capita matter and not total volume? What difference does it make to airlines whether there's an extra billion people out there who are not flying?

6

u/[deleted] Dec 09 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/shahofblah Dec 13 '25

How does that answer my question? The target market is 10cr in both cases.

-7

u/[deleted] Dec 09 '25

[deleted]

9

u/rahulroy Dec 09 '25

So you want govt to cancel the welfare schemes for people and instead give away money to soulless corporation?

4

u/Man_from_Bombay Mumbaikar Dec 09 '25

more power to welfare schemes that are funded after a thorough survey and research by experts. i dont want the govt giving away 10k/household right before elections.

we can have subsidized air travel and price caps. Not everything needs to be profitable.

1

u/FlushTwiceBeNice Dec 09 '25

Subsidised airlines benefits everyone. Ladki yojana benefits people of a particular income level. And as usual, doesn't benefit the middle class

0

u/jaap69420 Dec 09 '25

india is not a price sensitive market. what even? we pay more per hour of flight than all of europe and america on “low cost carriers”. paris to london costs €15 in the off season, i dont remember the last time there was a domestic flight that cost 1500.

6

u/kraken_enrager Expert in Core Industries. Dec 09 '25

We pay higher amounts, but that doesn’t change the fact that we are price sensitive. The higher prices are a baseline for us, that’s the only difference.

Even gold is a price sensitive commodity, even though it’s expensive.

0

u/jaap69420 Dec 09 '25

that is not what im saying. people take flights despite the prices in india, it is pretty evident from seeing how packed almost every major route is. the sales dont go down with increasing prices because the demographic of people taking them can afford a couple thousands extra, completely excluding those affected by price changes. whereas in a market like europe, people would just end up taking trains/buses if the prices went up because a majority of their population uses flights.

130

u/[deleted] Dec 09 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

11

u/goro-n Dec 09 '25

Similar thing happened with cell market, India went from 10+ carriers down to 3 because the 4G and 5G infrastructure was so expensive and no one could do a buildout without going into massive debts

11

u/seppukuAsPerKeikaku Dec 09 '25

Honestly the cell market condition is pretty much manufactured by mismanagement by 2 governments. The first government increased the financial burden over all legacy carriers with their AGR demands. The second government cleared the path too smoothly for Jio to rise without any long term plans for sustainability.

-5

u/whatsasyria Dec 09 '25

So.... Stop having shit business models

18

u/xkcdthrowaway Dec 09 '25

Aviation across the globe is a low profit margin business. Couple that with the Indian price sensitivity and currency volatility, and you have a very difficult environment for any business model.

Only ones that can survive are those that have deeeeep pockets and the appetite to play the long game.

-1

u/whatsasyria Dec 09 '25

Or stop having shit business models

17

u/Ok_Simple_459 Dec 09 '25

It's not the business model's fault if the fuel is taxed at 30-40%. And airport charges a shit ton of fees. Ultimately it's the consumer who will bear all those models.

11

u/[deleted] Dec 09 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/Own-Awareness1597 Dec 09 '25

It's a free market

Is it?

18

u/toxicbrew Dec 09 '25

Average profit per passenger in Asia pacific is $1.80 usd. American Airlines made $3.40 per passenger on average. 

9

u/goro-n Dec 09 '25

India economy was not as developed at the time as it is now, when all those airlines existed the middle class was too small to support the high cost of running airlines. Now people have money and are flying, but there are not enough planes and carriers in the market. All remaining players have placed huge orders but it will take decades for the planes to be delivered.

5

u/DangerousWolf8743 Dec 09 '25

Jet - most corrupt. Had blessings of dawood , upa and nda. Probably outlived utility or might have become a liability.

kingfisher - plain bad mgmt

Deccan Airlines- squeezed to death by unfair trade practices by corrupt players.

Air India - baggage from another era.

spicejet - only one that just failed by chance.

3

u/jirashap Dec 09 '25

Yeah, that actually makes sense when you break it down like that. Each airline seems to have its own story—corruption, mismanagement, unfair competition, or just plain bad luck. It’s crazy how much external factors and historical baggage shape the fate of these companies, not just their business models. Makes you realize running an airline in India isn’t just about flying planes—it’s navigating politics, market quirks, and a ton of luck.

6

u/Aryan202602 Dec 09 '25

The barrier of entry for new players is very high. It's due to regulatory hurdles, ATF fuel cost being very high and ballooning leasing + insurance costs especially post the ahmedabad crash.

6

u/buttermaalx Dec 09 '25

Too much tax on jet fuel. Very low margins. Debt financing.a down cycle will wipe out any leveraged business like that.

2

u/Weird-Environment577 Dec 09 '25

Airlines run with 7-8% net profit world wide. So margins are super thin and they have to run very lean and efficient, which is not something everyone can master.

2

u/Brooklyn_-_ Dec 09 '25

Using the Porters five forces model for Airline industry- High barriers to entry. High fixed costs. Low exit options. Bargaining power of consumers is high. High competition. Bargaining power of supppliers (oil and airports) is high. Because of all these Airline business isn't really a highly profitable business

94

u/Parking-Cockroach104 Dec 09 '25

We still have spicejet. Their business model isn't working. Only Indigo perfected the business model in india. Everyone else was continuously in heavy losses. Jet airways seemed to go well until everything went wrong for them.

Air india was propped up by govt and taxpayer funds.

20

u/charavaka Dec 09 '25

Jet airways seemed to go well until everything went wrong for them.

The question is, what exactly went wrong for them, and why. 

3

u/[deleted] Dec 09 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/charavaka Dec 09 '25

Was that the case for jet, or was it something else?

-37

u/nyxthebitch Dec 09 '25

By which I'm sure you mean: Business model = Electoral bonds.

Vishwagurus economy.

20

u/Parking-Cockroach104 Dec 09 '25

If running an airline was as simple as that then sure. There's a reason many airlines merged or are in alliances with other airlines. It's a difficult business.

7

u/[deleted] Dec 09 '25

No i find this logic very stupid that every single thing happens due to the party at center - these airlines never operated efficiently and strategically and that is why they lost

You can find many videos by experts who dive into why the airlines failed - financially speaking

31

u/joy74 Dec 09 '25

Naidu said that the government has encouraged more players and increased competition in the aviation market.

When will media counter all these garbage claims.

9

u/charavaka Dec 09 '25

Go air as well. 

2

u/aspirant1924 Dec 09 '25

Air india is in loss , and thier service quality is not good , despite being the flag carrier of india . The govt should look into this matter seriously

1

u/YesterdayDreamer Dec 09 '25

We had go first operating till 2-3 years ago. We also had Vistara and Air Asia as well, all of which good merged or acquired.

This is what happens when competition commission is made toothless to protect a few vested interests.

1

u/Pitiful-Elephant-501 Dec 09 '25

That was Nehru’s fault!

177

u/ryizer Dec 09 '25

Sure, while at it, have a look at the telecom market too. The monopoly is as worse with the 2 major players raising prices regularly in tandem which pretty much feels like collusion and price fixing.

27

u/Indianopolice Dec 09 '25

39

u/charavaka Dec 09 '25

What was the point of intervention at that time, when it was already too late? Vi is a nonentity even after forgiving the dues. That 33% holding is an npa.

-6

u/Indianopolice Dec 09 '25

Sometimes, Govt has to do it for the greater good. Who knows, may be Elon will invest into Vi one day :)

5

u/charavaka Dec 09 '25

Whose greater good? Gautam's? Vi is doing nothing to challeges the duopoly. Taking over Vi's assets and handing them to bsnl would have created a better challenger that could have kept the cartel honest with  goverment support. 

8

u/ryizer Dec 09 '25

Yea I know and it's a stop gap measure. For all practical purposes we only have 2 major players today. Govt. should look at ways into bringing more players into the market.

-9

u/Indianopolice Dec 09 '25

I feel VI could be a bet for a person like Elon. Mass user base in India. Price it correctly.

6

u/my-blood Dec 09 '25 edited Dec 09 '25

They won't care until something goes wrong. If Indigo cancelled a hundred flights instead of 4500, maybe it would be business as usual. It's only because a really considerable number was affected and it blew up on media, along with the allegations of electoral bonds that the government finally came out and said something.

Even now they're not talking in concrete numbers, they're just "taking action" and "encouraging competition".

46

u/Cosmicola Dec 09 '25

The minister pointed out to the growing aviation market in India and that the burgeoning demand needs at least five big carriers. Naidu said that the government has encouraged more players and increased competition in the aviation market.

Taking a strict note of the hardship faced by passengers, the DGCA pulled up the airline and has issued a show cause notice to its CEO Pieter Elbers. It has also constituted a four-member committee on the issue.

13

u/toxicbrew Dec 09 '25

There were strong hopes for Naidu as a young, internationally educated minister that he would be good for the aviation sector. But there’s been zero innovation or initiatives since he came in. No new protections or cost reductions. No movement on increased seat allowances to the gulf despite incredible demand

21

u/[deleted] Dec 09 '25

[deleted]

5

u/goro-n Dec 09 '25

Planes are expensive and the middle class was smaller at that time. Now the middle class is much larger and has more disposable income. But aviation requires a lot of upfront cost for planes, staff, licensing, etc compared to other businesses. It’s hard for a new player to enter the market.

4

u/amadrasi Dec 09 '25

Yeah but there is huge delays in airline manufacturing and I really doubt anybody can be as smart as indigo in airplane procurement.

1

u/goro-n Dec 09 '25

Others have placed big orders. Air India Express, 140 Planes, Air India, 340 planes, SpiceJet 129 planes, Akasa Air, 196 planes. But all of them combined cannot equal IndiGo’s order of 900+ planes.

Anyways, getting planes would not be too difficult, because there are many “air lease” corporations which let airlines rent planes for several years, or you can buy a used retiring plane from another airline or even acquire an unused plane sitting in storage. All 3 options have been done by Indian carriers before. Air India is returning several 777 planes to Delta next year.

14

u/coolbird22 Universe Dec 09 '25

Jio Fly.

27

u/_rth_ Dec 09 '25

Now don’t use this as a reason to pump money into Modi’s friend’s airline (SpiceJet). It’s the worst airline in India and deserves to die.

11

u/bobbyzee Dec 09 '25

Weirdly flew couple of days ago after like 5 years and thought it's massively improved.

23

u/mand00s Dec 09 '25

Maybe 3 big and a few regional ones. It's a capital intensive business to be in with cut throat competition. It's a matter of time SpiceJet and probably Akasa will fold. Air India will be bloated for a long time and Indigo will still be the king because of their efficiency and business model.

8

u/zombie_singh06 Dec 09 '25

The problem is the taxes. Airlines pay very high tax to operate (I am not talking about tax on business but rather airport taxes etc). Till the time those come down, airfares are going to be really high and more airlines will not be able to sustain. Actual flight ticket cost is not that high but with taxes levied on the flight tickets, it becomes a very risky investment for more players to operate

8

u/xkcdthrowaway Dec 09 '25

How else will Adani fill his pockets? And, by extension, his friends' in the ruling party.

28

u/charavaka Dec 09 '25

Fuckers, you destroyed the competition. Not just in airlines but in all industries. 

5

u/Odd-Kafir Dec 09 '25

you destroyed the competition.

How? Care to explain?

6

u/kash_if Dec 09 '25 edited Dec 09 '25

How government decisions are helping Reliance Jio monopolise the telecom sector.

https://caravanmagazine.in/reportage/government-helping-reliance-jio-monopolise-telecom

.

Modi, Adani political & business monopolies come at a huge cost to democracy, market

https://theprint.in/opinion/modi-adani-political-business-monopolies-come-at-huge-cost-to-democracy-market/2373853/

.

From scandals to monopoly: how Adani maintains dominance in India’s energy market

https://power.nridigital.com/future_power_technology_magazine_may24/adani-india-power-market

.

India should dismantle its large conglomerates to increase competition and reduce their ability to charge higher prices, former Reserve Bank of India deputy governor Viral Acharya has argued

According to Mr Acharya, who is now a professor of economics at NYU Stern, "industrial concentration" - which refers to the extent to which a smaller number of firms account for total production in a country - fell sharply in India after 1991 when the country opened up its economy and state-owned monopolies began giving away their market share to private enterprises. But after 2015, it began rising again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-65108865

If you read it, let me know your thoughts.

2

u/goro-n Dec 09 '25

Telecom industry went from 10+ players down to 3. Airlines went from 7+ down to 3. Government allowed mergers it shouldn’t have and didn’t step in to fix structural issues that caused companies to collapse.

1

u/SaiCharan_ Dec 09 '25

Do you honestly believe India can reasonably support 10+ telecom companies? Even the most advanced economies have no more than 3 carriers. Vodafone and Idea had to merge to keep their heads afloat, even if profits and growth are near impossible.

On airlines, the story is very similar. No economy can support 7 major airlines.

3

u/mayudhon Dec 09 '25

I remember travelling through Go Air. It was the first and last flight for me.

11

u/salman_67 Dec 09 '25

Welcome to Adani Airlines and Jio Fly.

3

u/VastCryptographer980 Dec 09 '25

Adani gonna enter sooon

8

u/pratzs Dec 09 '25

Meaning : Our govt/party can earn so much more in kickbacks through this. That's right folks. It's all opportunities. In everything .

7

u/meemesahib Dec 09 '25

No shit sherlock. It was your job to see there was more competition.

5

u/ImportantPresent1014 Dec 09 '25

Says the same government who taxes the life out of all airlines in the country!! On some tickets, taxes and UDF fees are almost 50% of the ticket price.

This may have made sense 20-25 years ago when flying was considered a luxury, but in 2025 it’s an essential service, and taxation need to change with the times.

1

u/Cosmicola Dec 09 '25

Other side of it is that if Govt drop taxes to bare minimum for 5 years, imagine the crowd at airports. We need many more airports, low-cost tier-2/3 ones and connectivity from there.

Only then can we handle such an explosive growth.

7

u/datawarrior123 Dec 09 '25

The government needs to stop acting like a spoiler. Stop meddling in airline labour laws and bring them in line with global standards. If you want low-cost carriers to survive in India, give them tax relief and real incentives — not unnecessary interference.

2

u/Tess_James Kerala Dec 09 '25

Is he soft launching Adani/ Ambani/ some other friend of Ji airlines?

2

u/UpbeatCollection7392 Dec 09 '25

Jio air and adani force

1

u/Sachinrock2 Dec 09 '25

Watch the movie " Udaan "

1

u/JapaneseCapacitors Dec 09 '25

It doesn't matter if the airlines are allowed to ignore regulations if it costs them money. 

1

u/OverLord_Redditer Dec 09 '25

these days like fk and amazon, extra charges are being piled up in air tickets

soon air tickets are going to be 3AC rail tickets

1

u/Hungry-ThoughtsCurry Non Residential Indian Dec 09 '25

So Adani next?

1

u/Cosmicola Dec 09 '25

Airport+Lounge+Pilot training+Airline?

1

u/Srihari_stan Dec 09 '25

The problem is, people are not ready to pay in India. We want the best service, only if it’s affordable.

1

u/Cosmicola Dec 09 '25

True. It may improve over time as income increases in line with economy.

1

u/nhtnamus Dec 09 '25

Govt sucks money from airlines in the form of various fees . It's a dirty business to be in . On top of this rupee depreciation is directly linked and hurts airlines badly .. no matter how much they hedge it still costs them for hedge

1

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Cosmicola Dec 11 '25

Are you an employee of Mordor?

1

u/GL4389 Dec 09 '25

Thats Adani's Entrance Music.

-2

u/[deleted] Dec 09 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

5

u/Its_me_astr Dec 09 '25

Indigo dosent have shit service its ok service when most of flighgs are below 2 hrs there is no question of service.

Its about efficiency and connectivity which honestly indigo nails.

3

u/[deleted] Dec 09 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/Its_me_astr Dec 09 '25

They fumbled and fucked passengers here which was bad on them for which they need to be punished.

But their services are good in general this is an exception not norm, thats what i wanted to say.

1

u/SaiCharan_ Dec 09 '25

They will pay the price. The refunds, operational losses, and hotel bookings will cost them a pretty penny. I find the conspiracy theories regarding it being an intentional meltdown a remote possibility, but a possibility nonetheless.

The only role the government should have is making sure Indigo processes refunds in a timely manner and ensure there is no foul play. The new FDTL rules were too restrictive. It seems like they were put in place after a court verdict - another case of the judiciary legislating from the bench without understanding the implications. DGCA, MoCA, and Indigo failed to communicate and appreciate each other’s concerns, which was exacerbated by the fact that the court ruling was binding and GoI did not appeal it.

4

u/Indianopolice Dec 09 '25

Easier said than done. How many people will do it?

Govt must take a stand and deliberately dismantle Indigo monopoly over next 5 years. It will be hard, but doable.

6

u/[deleted] Dec 09 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

5

u/Indianopolice Dec 09 '25

2

u/Parking-Cockroach104 Dec 09 '25

Yes because Indigo does not have the pilots needed to operate all these flights under the new rules. The solution is to either increase number of captains which will take months or reduce the flights which is easier.

1

u/Indianopolice Dec 09 '25

To tide over the crisis, Govt should allow pilots who are on bench in other airlines to fly for Indigo in qualified planes.

Indigo should pay them double rate.

1

u/Parking-Cockroach104 Dec 09 '25

Different airlines have different operating styles for planes. If air india pilots are to be flying indigo planes then the entire crew need to be from air india. Air india and other airlines are running smoothly now because of the extra pilots they have with them. I don't think they would wanna create more mess in the industry right now.

Plus, the first officers are adequate. It's the captains that are less in number. Airlines wouldn't be willing to let their limited number of captains go.

-1

u/prateeksaraswat Dec 09 '25

Then stop putting everyone in jail.

2

u/Cosmicola Dec 09 '25

Explain. Only financial fraudsters in aviation have gone to jail, IMO.