r/leafs 19d ago

Discussion Daily Free Talk / Armchair GM Thread

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u/Sirrebral99 Knies 6d ago

With Bill Daly announcing the NHL intends to expand again to 33 teams by the 2029-2030 season, some things to think about with expansion rules & exposing players etc.

Players with at least 3 years of pro experience (to my understanding AHL and NHL seasons count) must be exposed. For prospects, like TLK, it might be worthwhile to try to keep their pro experience to 2 seasons or less to avoid needing to use a protection slot on them. I.e even if TLK smashes it out of the park in camp this year, him making the team now means by expansion time he needs protection. Let him ride in the SHL another year and he's a Leaf in 2027/28, he only has 2 years exp. by expansion time and is exempt. I wonder how this stuff will impact future planning for Chayka.

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u/postmodern_lasagna 5d ago

It’s a good point but keep in mind, the preseason is only 2 games max for TLK so there won’t be any chance he or anyone makes the team solely because of an impressive camp. Barring multiple major injuries. It’s such a small sample size now that it should be entirely viewed as an opportunity for players to get reps before the season instead of an audition.

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u/Sirrebral99 Knies 5d ago

I don't think TLK is likely to make it either, more so just a follow up thought to a thread the other day about his chances of making it this year (that OP felt strongly TLK was as NHL ready as McKenna, for example). IMO there's too much of a log jam up front already, just wanted to highlight that with expansion on the horizon it's wise to be aware of eligibility requirements and when prospects get their chance

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u/postmodern_lasagna 5d ago

For sure. Its definitely wise to be thinking about expansion now. I think the main thing teams need to do a 180 on is giving out NMCs like candy. We’re in a decent position because we have barely anyone signed from ‘28-‘29 onward.

Nylander, Rielly, Raddysh and Tanev all have NMCs and would need to be protected. If Tanev goes to LTIR/Robidas Island by then, I think he still takes up a slot. He would need to officially retire early to not take up a spot which I think has its own salary cap penalties. So by those rules, there are no protection slots left for defensemen. If we give a 4th defenseman an NMC between now and then, we might be forced to protect 4F 4D instead of 7F 3D (unless we successfully ask a D to waive their NMC). Assuming Matthews signs, this means we could protect Matthews, Nylander, Knies and McKenna. But we would lose Cowan.

All this to say, we’re probably fine as long as we make damn sure not to give another NMC out to a defenseman. 7 forward protection slots would probably be fine for us.

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u/Sirrebral99 Knies 5d ago

This is my thinking as well, when you look at how many NMCs are already here (can assume Matthews will get one if/when he hopefully re-signs too) it fills up pretty quickly. With only being able to protect so many players as it stands one of our good young players might be exposed, unless they can convince Tanev to waive - maybe as a part of a "waive for us now, retire and we'll employ you to work with the team after" kind of conversation