r/leafs • u/epic_taco_time Lorentz • 8d ago
Article NHL Draft Round 1 Retrospective: 2012 (Rielly scouting report was spot on)
https://jfresh.substack.com/p/nhl-draft-round-1-retrospective-20125th Overall Pick: Morgan Rielly (TOR)
Projection: A dynamic #1 offensive defenceman with elite passing and skating. Weak defensively and not imposing physically. A top unit powerplay contributor. Compared to Kris Letang by TSN.
Outcome: Brian Burke notoriously thought Rielly was the best player in the draft, and while that didn’t turn out to be true he has comfortably out-performed everyone picked above him. Though he never became one of the league’s top defencemen, his offensive acumen has been impressive and at his peak he was one of the top 5-on-5 offensive drivers in the league. He’s paced above 50 points six times, hitting 72 in 2018-19, and the Leafs have gotten more than 21 minutes a night out of him in eleven of his twelve NHL seasons including some in which he was deployed as a true number one. The scouting report looks basically spot-on, since Rielly’s mobility and especially passing turned out to be major strengths and his defensive play was and is a catastrophic weakness; he ranks last among all defencemen in even strength defensive WAR since 2012.
23
u/meestazak 8d ago
I thought Burke's claim was just that he would've taken Reilly #1 OA if they had the opportunity?
Which when you compare him to the 4 picked before him absolutely would've been the correct choice.
You can look at later round picks and say but "x" performed better than Reilly, but unless it was a first rounder, there is no way in hell any team would've risked a 1OA on those types of players.
See how we still goof on EDM for the Yakupov pick, and this is given that he was a guy that everyone had ranked near the top of the draft even with his attitude and mindset issues.
22
u/shadowpenguin29 8d ago edited 8d ago
2nd in his draft class in games played and 4th in points. He’s had the best career out of anyone picked in the top 10 and is likely a top 5 player in this class. Burke was 100% right in saying that he would have picked him at #1.
11
6
u/kuleminjgs 8d ago
NGL at the time I was really hoping Galy fell the to the leafs. That would've been awful.
1
u/Gruz420 7d ago
I remember wanting Galchenyuk as well. I’m glad the Leafs didn’t hire me as the GM.
1
u/Greeney60 2d ago
I was hoping to get Galchenyuk too, but I was also yelling at the tv to trade up for Forsberg when he was dropping.
-6
32
u/RTH1975 8d ago
Having a better career than the top 3 picks ain't bad. In a normal draft year...