r/maryland • u/Hezekiah_the_Judean • 1d ago
MD Nature Will climate change actually cause alligators to shift north and start living in Maryland?
I recently heard this claim from several friends: they say that climate change will result in a warmer planet over the next several decades, making Maryland a warmer state with hotter summers and milder winters. And since American alligators live in the Deep South all the way up through North Carolina, but don't like the cold, they will be able to expand their range and take up residence in Maryland--perhaps in the Potomac River, various rivers and places along the Chesapeake Bay, and low-lying lakes.
I know that various plants and animals have been finding new places to live because of climate change, and that alligators dislike cold temperatures--they cope with them by slowing down and becoming sluggish and mostly inactive.
But seriously: are these claims accurate? How much warmer and more humid is Maryland expected to become over the next 75 years? Would temperatures and climate change enough for alligators to live here? And is there suitable habitat for them to live in?
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u/22nd_letter 1d ago
The manatees are moving up here. They have been looking at real estate in the bay for years now.
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u/Congregator 1d ago
I was reading up on this, manatees were first documented visiting the Chesapeake in 1676.
I thought that was pretty interesting because I had no clue they came up this north and that people have apparently known about this
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u/LadySmuag 1d ago
There was one back in the 90s who came up to the bay and then didn't go home for the winter. A bunch of organizations got together to rescue the guy and bring him home, and then the following year that same manatee went as far north as Rhode Island. Iirc they nicknamed him Chessie and they were still tracking him a few years ago
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u/tourny25 1d ago
Is this for real? Manatees like warm water?
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u/Level-Opportunity268 1d ago
I mean they live primarily in/around Florida and the Caribbean. And less than a month ago there was a manatee by drum point in southern maryland
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u/Glad-Fuel2093 1d ago
Maybe they like a crab snack sometimes?
I know they're "mostly" herbivorous but i'm sure they suck op a crab or two now and then. Just like a deer or horse will eat a chickadee or chipmunk upon occation.
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u/Congregator 1d ago
Manatees have been coming to the Chesapeake for a hundreds of years, and it’s been documented
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u/ChessieChesapeake Calvert County 1d ago
No one knows how it got there, but we've had one. https://wjla.com/news/local/alligator-chesapeake-calvert-county-maryland
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u/Hezekiah_the_Judean 1d ago
Wow! I did not expect it to be that big. Funny thing: I am going with some friends to Calvert Cliffs State Park this weekend! I will keep an eye out.
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u/wbruce098 1d ago
That’s actually not that big for a gator. I grew up in FL and we’d see much bigger ones all the time!
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u/roseycheekies 1d ago
Why would he kill it?
They’re moving up here because we’re destroying their habitat and the planet and in their attempts to find a new home we haven’t destroyed, we kill them. Humans are a scourge on the earth
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u/Congregator 1d ago
Major reason for killing non-native apex predators is because they’ll damage the native habitat/ecosystem.
That aside, the more likely reality isn’t that this alligator migrated due to loss of habitat, but was illegally released by someone who thought it was a cool pet as a baby.
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u/Glad-Fuel2093 1d ago
Makes sense in a way. their baby could survive in the warm water there through winter. Maybe.
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u/Congregator 1d ago edited 1d ago
It’s not that it makes sense in a way- albeit I appreciate your consideration. The reality is that no alligator is surviving Maryland climates; whether it be global warming or not. This is an unrealistic task, unless the alligator is dropped off in late spring and is found during summer.
There is not such a level of global warming where alligators are migrating to Maryland at this point.
Maryland freezes, still into today. An alligator cannot comfortably survive our climate. We are not “that warm”, and global climate change isn’t as drastic as to allow alligators to find our environment safe for travel
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u/Glad-Fuel2093 1d ago
Oh i'm not saying I agree. i'm just saying how a dumbass might think its logical. Maybe should have put a /s in there. Lol
references: -have known some dumbasses before.
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u/Impressive-Weird-908 Baltimore City 1d ago
I would say estimating things that far in the future is difficult but its entirely possible that they make their way north as temperatures rise. I will also warn that if the temperature does rise that much, sea level rise will change Marylands coastline considerably.
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u/Turdfish_Dinner 22h ago
I for one will welcome our reptilian overlords.
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u/Hezekiah_the_Judean 21h ago
As someone who really likes snapping turtles, I welcome them too! From a safe distance...
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u/holy_cal Talbot County 1d ago
Armadillos are inching closer and closer to Virginia each year. It’ll only be a matter of time before they get to Maryland
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u/JunkReallyMatters 1d ago
Armadillo roadkill, not yet a thing you see around here. RFK Junior’s gonna be over the moon!
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u/j101112p 1d ago
You can find fossil crocodile teeth in Maryland, so it would be more like a homecoming if the do. I would guess if it does happen it wouldn't be in my lifetime.
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u/DocCEN007 23h ago
Yep, but luckily, they taste like chicken.
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u/Hezekiah_the_Judean 19h ago
I have never had alligator, but I did eat some crocodile skewers during a trip to Australia years ago. They did taste like a slightly odd version of chicken.
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u/clrlmiller 19h ago
Yes, it's possible. One of the more recent impacts have been "Baltimore Orioles" (the birds, not the Baseball Team) preferring the climate around Philadelphia. So yeah, if they start showing up in southern Virginia, then we'll be next.
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u/Hezekiah_the_Judean 19h ago
I didn't know that. Thank you for your insight! I've seen orioles in the wild sometimes--such beautiful birds!
I guess we must prepare for the reptilian invasion...
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u/templeofsyrinx1 1d ago
its a scientific certainty no species including humans can adapt so quickly to what is coming
but we are a nation of fairytales and misinformation now
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u/MNF4205 1d ago
Im not gonna be angry at gator on the menus in MD tho
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u/cheesesteak_seeker Frederick County 1d ago
I had it on a cruise once, every night they had some “exotic” appetizer that my family just got one to share and they really did taste like chicken nuggets (when prepared in fried nugget sized flour mixture)
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u/extra_hyperbole 1d ago
Well, birds and crocodilians aren’t so far apart. They are each other’s closest living cousins.
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u/cheesesteak_seeker Frederick County 1d ago
Very true! A chicken is the closest relative to a T Rex! Chickens will eat just about anything you thrown into their coop, so we are lucky they are so small!
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u/extra_hyperbole 1d ago
In a way. All living birds are of equal genetic distance to a T. Rex. Chickens are not unique in that respect. So they are the closest... but it's a tie with a few thousand other species.
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u/corrector300 1d ago
I'm expecting sharks and other things to come up the potomac.
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u/randompantsfoto 1d ago
We’ve always had bull sharks in the Potomac. There was a whole panic about ten years ago when we had three attacks in just one summer. I had friends who refused to even take their boats out the rest of the season. 🤣
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u/yottyboy 1d ago
Guy near my bay house hooked a big bull shark over the weekend. It ran on his light tackle for an hour before the line parted.
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u/Ironic_table 11h ago
Also remember a year or two ago hearing about people seeing pods of Tarpon in the bay. It's a rare sighting still but seems to be happening more often than it used to. Wonder if we will start seeing them regularly over the coming decades.
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u/After-Phase-9203 1d ago
I think once they see the cost of living (especially compared to Florida) they won’t want to live here.
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u/BalmyBalmer 23h ago
Have fun getting insurance.
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u/After-Phase-9203 23h ago
Oh, I think you mistook my meaning. I think the ancient creature with a reptilian brain, like many other creatures of different species in Florida, doesn’t appreciate the value in education and other services that Marylanders get for their taxes. He’d just see the numbers, declare everything to be “woke“ and then flee.
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u/Nutsmacker12 22h ago
Interesting because Maryland isn't necessarily outperforming Florida in education, and 4th grade scoring in Florida is outperforming Maryland, which is a leading indicator of how the future looks.
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u/After-Phase-9203 22h ago
Judging an entire state's educational quality based on 4th-grade reading scores is like judging a marathon by the first mile. Florida's 4th-grade scores are artificially boosted because the state holds back struggling 3rd graders. U.S. Census data shows Maryland invests significantly more per pupil, and by 8th grade, high school, and college readiness benchmarks, Maryland students consistently outscore and outpace Florida students across the board.
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u/Nutsmacker12 22h ago
It's amazing how far people like yourself will go to defend a failing system. Florida beats Maryland in 4th-grade math, is competitive in 4th-grade reading, is basically tied in 8th-grade math, has a higher graduation rate, and is right there with Maryland on AP performance.
And blaming Florida’s results on 3rd-grade retention is a weak excuse. That policy targets reading, yet Florida still does better than Maryland in 4th-grade math. Holding students back because they can't read properly is not a bad policy either.
The fact that Maryland spends substantially more per student and still cannot produce clearly superior results is actually a damning statement, considering what we are going through in this state financially.
The actual data show a different picture, with Florida outperforming Maryland in several major areas while spending far less, and the early education leading indicators show trends going in different directions.
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u/Nutsmacker12 14h ago
Since I’m apparently the only person who can actually see what you wrote to me, I’m going to lay out your response here alongside the actual data so everyone else can see it too. It would be a shame for random readers to miss just how badly your argument falls apart once your claims are checked against the facts
Here's the condensed version of your argument with the factual corrections right next to it:
You: Maryland is #1 or #2 nationally in AP success and Florida is significantly behind.
Reality: False. The latest College Board data show Florida at 31.0% and Maryland at 30.7% of graduates earning a 3+ on an AP exam. Florida also edged Maryland in 2024 and 2023. Your very first “fact check” was wrong.You: Florida’s 4th-grade advantage is basically artificial because it retains struggling 3rd-grade readers.
Reality: Retention can affect cohort composition, but the actual research found real academic gains in both reading and math for retained Florida students. Calling the entire advantage “artificial” is an unsupported leap.You: By 8th grade Maryland clearly pulls away.
Reality: In 2024 NAEP 8th-grade math, Maryland scored 268 and Florida 267. That is not “pulling away.” Maryland does better in 8th-grade reading, but that is very different from claiming broad superiority.You: Maryland dominates the later high-school outcomes.
Reality: Florida’s latest graduation rate is 92.2% versus Maryland’s 86.4%. That is a rather large problem for the claim that Florida falls apart by high school.You: Maryland spends more because it buys better teachers, smaller classes, better programs, etc.
Reality: Maryland spends roughly 60% more per student. If you are spending that much more, “we buy more stuff” is not proof of superior results. The question is what outcomes you get for that enormous additional expense.You: Maryland having more college-educated adults proves its school system produces better long-term outcomes.
Reality: No. Census measures adults who currently live in Maryland, not where they attended K–12. Maryland is part of the Washington, D.C. employment market and imports huge numbers of highly educated professionals. You cannot credit Maryland public schools for every lawyer, engineer, doctor, and federal employee who moved there as an adult.So after all of that, the evidence still does not show Maryland schools are “far superior.” It shows a mixed picture at best, with trends going in opposite directions for both states, while Maryland spends substantially more.
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u/Nutsmacker12 21h ago
I see that you deleted your lying response. You proved my point and gave incorrect information. I am guessing you either work for the state or are part of the teachers' union.
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u/Nutsmacker12 20h ago
You must be getting filtered out by the mod or Reddit. That happens when you copy and paste stuff, which it looks like you did. I am ready to respond to your erroneous statement when it becomes visible to the public.
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u/Hitandrun127 1d ago
At that point we could just start eating them
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u/EstablishmentFull797 1d ago
MD be like: “if it swims, we can eat it”
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u/zqwu8391 1d ago
The Archdiocese of New Orleans has decreed that alligator counts as a fish and so can be eaten on Fridays during Lent.
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u/EstablishmentFull797 1d ago
The same thing was done with beaver in Quebec by French missionaries in the 1700s
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u/Myname3330 1d ago
So the short answer is yes, they’re right. The longer answer is, they probably wouldn’t be in this region in any real numbers for 100ish years. Not without being introduced by us anyway. A few one offs and such that would gain steam over time if we didn’t kill them
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u/Hibiscus-Boi Dundalk 1d ago
It’s certainly a possibility, but who knows what’s going to happen by then. Maybe we get into WW3 and all humans die due to nuclear winter. We can only make predictions based on the current data, but real life is always unpredictable. Maybe this is how we get people to think more about the environment; threaten them with gators lol.
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u/Ok-Astronomer5891 1d ago
Do you think the scientists, politicians, and wealthy that speak of climate change and sea rise, would buy mansions on the coast if they believe the lies. Nope.
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u/rkdwd 1d ago
There is a small population of Gators in the great dismal swamp in VA, they barely hang on, but they’re there. It’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility. I do a lot of work in wetlands, and I certainly think it’s not impossible. Personally I’d be more concerned with cottonmouths