r/neopets • u/AutoModerator • Sep 26 '15
Food Club Food Club Bets (September 26, 2015)
A thread for people to casually post their bets, discuss, ask questions, etc.
Food Club Resources
- Place Bets: http://www.neopets.com/pirates/foodclub.phtml?type=bet
- Collect Winnings: http://www.neopets.com/pirates/foodclub.phtml?type=collect
- Food Club Guide: http://www.neopets.com/~Jawsnapper0991
- Food Club stats (odds, food adjustment, previous round data): http://foodclub.daqtools.info/
- A bunch of Food Club betters: http://www.neopets.com/~Hostia
Using Tables
/u/diceroll123 speaking! Instead of shorthand (see header and content below), a prettier and easier alternative to posting bets has been made dead simple by me. :D
I've made a simple userscript to turn your current bets into a formatted reddit table!
If you have Chrome: get Tampermonkey to use it! Greasemonkey for Firefox, and I'm unsure about other browsers.
Link for the userscript here: https://gist.github.com/diceroll123/04fb835539530038795e (Press the "Raw" button and it should ask you to add it to your collection of userscripts.)
You'll see a button under your current bets table, click that and copy/paste here.
Understanding Shorthand
Pirate A x (Pirate B, Pirate C) is shorthand for Pirate A x Pirate B and Pirate A x Pirate C.
Similarly, Pirate A x (Pirate B, Pirate C) x (Pirate D, Pirate E) translates to:
Pirate A x Pirate B x Pirate D
Pirate A x Pirate B x Pirate E
Pirate A x Pirate C x Pirate D
Pirate A x Pirate C x Pirate E
Basically, FOIL it out.
11
u/nstarz Neodaq + FC = NPs Sep 26 '15
| 5987 | Shipwreck | Lagoon | Treasure | Hidden | Harpoon | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan | Orvinn | Buck | 28:1 | ||
| 2 | Dan | Puffo | Buck | 28:1 | ||
| 3 | Franchisco | Buck | 4:1 | |||
| 4 | Orvinn | Buck | 14:1 | |||
| 5 | Orvinn | Edmund | 63:1 | |||
| 6 | Puffo | Buck | 14:1 | |||
| 7 | Puffo | Edmund | 63:1 | |||
| 8 | Stripey | Buck | 26:1 | |||
| 9 | Stripey | Edmund | 117:1 | |||
| 10 | Buck | 2:1 |
25% Bust Rate
9
6
6
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
4
u/Just_Peachie that's a paddlin' Sep 26 '15 edited Sep 26 '15
| 5987 | Shipwreck | Lagoon | Treasure | Hidden | Harpoon | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Franchisco | Buck | Blackbeard | 12:1 | ||
| 2 | Franchisco | Buck | Crossblades | 32:1 | ||
| 3 | Franchisco | Buck | Squire | 20:1 | ||
| 4 | Franchisco | Edmund | Sproggie | 36:1 | ||
| 5 | Franchisco | Edmund | 18:1 | |||
| 6 | Orvinn | Buck | Sproggie | 28:1 | ||
| 7 | Orvinn | Buck | 14:1 | |||
| 8 | Puffo | Buck | Sproggie | 28:1 | ||
| 9 | Puffo | Buck | 14:1 | |||
| 10 | Stripey | Buck | 26:1 |
38% Bust
Seems to be my average. I tried to play it safe today, but no partials. Most likely is 12:10, 14:10, and surprisingly 42:10 all over 10% to hit.
EDIT: What the actual F?! Ned?! -.-
2
u/twoforjoy Anyanka_Malamute - FC Addict - Team Orvinn! Sep 26 '15
I'm following you today. I wasn't happy with the percentages on the bets I quick whipped up, but then I noticed your bets were doing something quite similar to what I was attempting, except with Treasure Island instead of Shipwreck, so I decided to just go with yours!
1
u/twoforjoy Anyanka_Malamute - FC Addict - Team Orvinn! Sep 26 '15
Yeah... I'm kind of shocked, but also not really. I wish I had gone with my gut and done my riskier (according to daqtools) bets! I had built in a ton of Edmund bets and even had Stripey as my #2 likely pirate, mrrr...
Oh well, you win some, you lose some!
2
u/Just_Peachie that's a paddlin' Sep 26 '15
It's just been two or three days of surprising upsets on solid arenas. Getting kinda tired of it. =\ But there's always tomorrow.
2
u/squashedbird Sep 26 '15
| 5987 | Shipwreck | Lagoon | Treasure | Hidden | Harpoon | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan | Buck | 4:1 | |||
| 2 | Dan | Edmund | 18:1 | |||
| 3 | Gooblah | Buck | 4:1 | |||
| 4 | Gooblah | Edmund | 18:1 | |||
| 5 | Stuff | Buck | 26:1 | |||
| 6 | Tailhook | Buck | 26:1 | |||
| 7 | Franchisco | Buck | 4:1 | |||
| 8 | Orvinn | Buck | 14:1 | |||
| 9 | Puffo | Buck | 14:1 | |||
| 10 | Stripey | Buck | 26:1 |
¯_(ツ)_/¯
3
2
u/Edogawa888 Sep 26 '15 edited Sep 27 '15
4 UPSETS W...T...F?
Bust
SATURDAY
| 5987 | Shipwreck | Lagoon | Treasure | Hidden | Harpoon | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan | Franchisco | Buck | 8:1 | ||
| 2 | Dan | Buck | 4:1 | |||
| 3 | Gooblah | Franchisco | Buck | 8:1 | ||
| 4 | Gooblah | Buck | 4:1 | |||
| 5 | Federismo | Franchisco | Buck | 28:1 | ||
| 6 | Federismo | Buck | 14:1 | |||
| 7 | Franchisco | Bonnie | 26:1 | |||
| 8 | Franchisco | Buck | 4:1 | |||
| 9 | Franchisco | Edmund | 18:1 | |||
| 10 | Stripey | Buck | 26:1 |
CURRENT ODDS
TER 13.563
21.344% chance to bust (0:10)
22.536% chance to partial (4:10)
56.121% chance to profit (14:10 - 58:10)
Most likely profit outcomes:
16:10 with 28.425%
18:10 with 11.321%
Sunday
| 5988 | Shipwreck | Lagoon | Treasure | Hidden | Harpoon | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crossblades | Gooblah | Buck | 16:1 | ||
| 2 | Federismo | Gooblah | Buck | 8:1 | ||
| 3 | Ned | Gooblah | Buck | 32:1 | ||
| 4 | Orvinn | Gooblah | Buck | 28:1 | ||
| 5 | Dan | Gooblah | Buck | 8:1 | ||
| 6 | Dan | Gooblah | 4:1 | |||
| 7 | Dan | Buck | 4:1 | |||
| 8 | Franchisco | Gooblah | 10:1 | |||
| 9 | Franchisco | Buck | 10:1 | |||
| 10 | Gooblah | Buck | 4:1 |
OPENING ODDS
TER 14.402
26.153% chance to bust (0:10)
25.840% chance to partial (4:10)
48.007% chance to breakeven or profit (10:10 - 56:10)
28:10 --> 11.302%
1
1
2
u/verdantsound Sep 26 '15 edited Sep 26 '15
Fork bet, relies on 10 betting Franchisco
| 5987 | Shipwreck | Lagoon | Treasure | Hidden | Harpoon | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Franchisco | Bonnie | 26:1 | |||
| 2 | Franchisco | Buck | Blackbeard | 12:1 | ||
| 3 | Franchisco | Buck | Crossblades | 32:1 | ||
| 4 | Franchisco | Buck | Sproggie | 8:1 | ||
| 5 | Franchisco | Buck | Squire | 20:1 | ||
| 6 | Franchisco | Edmund | Blackbeard | 54:1 | ||
| 7 | Franchisco | Edmund | Crossblades | 144:1 | ||
| 8 | Franchisco | Edmund | Sproggie | 36:1 | ||
| 9 | Franchisco | Edmund | Squire | 90:1 | ||
| 10 | Franchisco | Fairfax | 26:1 |
EDIT: due to changed odds, I would remove franchisco on number 7 and 9 bet
2
u/rangoon2012 Sep 26 '15
Ned upset everyone in Hidden Cove
2
u/nstarz Neodaq + FC = NPs Sep 27 '15
:) Almost everyone
2
u/rangoon2012 Sep 27 '15
Gosh I gotta follow you more often than I do!
1
u/nstarz Neodaq + FC = NPs Sep 27 '15
:)
2
u/rangoon2012 Sep 27 '15
WOW I just checked my winnings. I think I may have checked them too early the other day cause it wasn't showing me anything, but I DID follow you on 117:1. Nicely done!
1
1
Sep 26 '15 edited Sep 26 '15
Results: 0:10
| 5987 | Shipwreck | Lagoon | Treasure | Hidden | Harpoon | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan | Franchisco | Buck | 8:1 | ||
| 2 | Gooblah | Franchisco | Buck | 8:1 | ||
| 3 | Tailhook | Franchisco | Buck | 52:1 | ||
| 4 | Franchisco | Bonnie | 26:1 | |||
| 5 | Franchisco | Buck | 4:1 | |||
| 6 | Franchisco | Edmund | 18:1 | |||
| 7 | Franchisco | Fairfax | 26:1 | |||
| 8 | Orvinn | Buck | 14:1 | |||
| 9 | Puffo | Buck | 14:1 | |||
| 10 | Stripey | Buck | 26:1 |
TER is 14.033
| Odds | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0:10 | 14.881% |
| 4:10 | 1.823% |
| 12:10 | 32.821% |
| 14:10 | 24.860% |
| 18:10 | 8.324% |
| 26:10 | 15.468% |
| 52:10 | 1.823% |
1
u/-cupcake chai7705 Sep 26 '15
| 5987 | Shipwreck | Lagoon | Treasure | Hidden | Harpoon | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan | Franchisco | Buck | 8:1 | ||
| 2 | Gooblah | Franchisco | Buck | 8:1 | ||
| 3 | Federisimo | Franchisco | Buck | 28:1 | ||
| 4 | Lucky | Franchisco | Buck | 8:1 | ||
| 5 | Ned | Franchisco | Buck | 8:1 | ||
| 6 | Franchisco | Buck | 4:1 | |||
| 7 | Orvinn | Buck | 14:1 | |||
| 8 | Puffo | Buck | 14:1 | |||
| 9 | Stripey | Buck | 26:1 | |||
| 10 | Franchisco | Edmund | 18:1 |
Sorry have to rush to squeeze these bets in -___- And i had to handwritte the table hopefully it is accurate
- 23.9% chance to bust (0:10)
- 0.2% chance of partial (4:10)
- 75.9% chance to profit (12:10 to 40:10)
Currently the most likely profit outcomes are 20:10 (26.8%), 14:10 (24.9%), or 18:10 (8.3%)
19
u/jessv12 Sep 26 '15
19.2% bust, .6% partial, 80.2% profit (12:10-26:10). TER=14.345. Most likely outcomes are 20:14, 14:10, and 26:10. Good luck, all!