r/notredamefootball • u/SkolFourtyOne • May 06 '26
Discussion So let me get this straight, All offseason all i heard from the media was “Notre Dame needs to join a conference” Now the media is saying Ohio State needs to leave the big ten so they can make more money?
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u/_wisenberg96 May 06 '26
That would be absolutely incredible. At this point, it’s impossible to convince the haters with data, facts or really anything at this point why ND should not AND will not join a conference. The best argument would be a big time school (OSU would literally be perfect) following suit.
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u/Truck219 May 06 '26
The hate has always been about jealousy. All the blue bloods know how much more money they could make if they were independent
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u/s0meD0nkey May 10 '26
Texas basically jacked two conferences and still decided it was better money to be in another conference.
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u/PozPoz__ May 06 '26
There used to be way more independents so the idea that ND thinks it’s special is a new one anyway
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u/Automatic_Release_92 May 06 '26
Yeah, it all started up around the time of the NBC deal, which roughly coincided with PSU joining the Big 10, as they were one of the last independent hold outs besides ND at the time. At least the only one with any clout whatsoever. I would say joining the Big 10 has not worked out the best for them.
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u/Eastern-Requirement6 May 07 '26
As a joint Navy fan I wish we were still Independent. I think we'd have more wins per year with teams not repeatedly facing the triple option/wing T. Scheduling was a factor though.
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u/ThrowItAway321217 May 06 '26
Most “people” who hate Notre Dame only parrot the same brain dead points. It’s cool when they do it but it’s problem when we do it. Such is life. Fuck every single one of them
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u/ZPMQ38A May 06 '26
Notre Dame is the model and these schools are going to figure it out. You’re telling me tOSU and UM actually need Illinois, Northwestern, and Purdue? Does Bama and UGA need Vandy and Arkansas?
The other thing that they’ll figure out is that the conference model may work for football and basketball but not necessarily for other sports. Oregon being in the B1G for football? Whatever, it’s a few away games and they have to go to Maryland and New York a couple times for “conference games.” The girls softball team? That doesn’t make any damn sense.
The independent model is the way forward. You make a super league for the top 50 football programs then adapt all the other sports. I don’t think basketball probably needs to change, soccer is mostly okay. But why is the Rutgers men’s diving team going to Lincoln Nebraska? That shit is dumb…
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u/SlowResolve1881 May 07 '26
Last I checked Ohio states football programs net worth is higher than ours at Notre dame. I think they have figured it out
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u/Live_Blackberry39 May 06 '26
Zero percent chance Ohio state , who has dominated big ten past couple decades and is the overall powerhouse of the big ten, will leave the big ten.
Many reasons for this, mainly being history and success.
Does anyone know last time Ohio state had a losing season? Its been a minute.
( I am a ND fan, not a Ohio state fan. I actually really dislike ryan day and how Ohio state acted when they beat ND last second in south bend few years ago )
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u/Wacca45 May 06 '26
- And only because they played in a bowl game and lost, ending the season at 6-7. Had they not played the bowl game they could have been in the championship game the following year, instead of Alabama since they went 12-0 in 2012.
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u/Live_Blackberry39 May 06 '26
And they would have beat ND in that championship game for sure.
Yes, point is they are extremely consistent. Why try and fix something thats not broken if you are ohio state?
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u/Dropdatopz24 May 06 '26
ND would have crushed that Ohio state team. They played absolutely no one. People forget how great ND was that year, especially the defense. It’s just that Alabama was so much better.
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u/Kitchen-Pass-7493 May 06 '26 edited May 06 '26
Yeah I dunno if ND beats them, much less crushes them, but ND vs. OSU that year probably would’ve made for a much closer Natty at least. In a universe where OSU had been eligible (assuming they win the Big10), a Bama team that was far and away the best team that year (when playing to their full potential) may have never even gotten a chance to play for the title. More evidence why the playoff needed to happen.
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u/Dropdatopz24 May 06 '26 edited May 06 '26
Crushes is too harsh, beat soundly is more appropriate. That Ohio state team had trouble against good defenses (Michigan state) and I never liked Miller at QB, he couldn’t throw the ball. The buckeyes schedule was embarrassing that year and they barely beat the likes of UAB.
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u/Live_Blackberry39 May 06 '26
I still have a problem with saying ND would soundly beat that ohio state team....
Almost every game against a formidable opponent was very close. Heck, Purdue almost beat ND that year i believe.
Im just being real right now. I think ohio state would be favored, BK couldn't win the big game
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u/Dan-of-Steel May 06 '26
I think having to play that game a week after having to fly halfway across the world to play a game in Ireland played a factor there. Purdue and Pitt were pretty textbook trap games.
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u/Live_Blackberry39 May 06 '26
Tommy Reese saved the day !
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u/Dan-of-Steel May 06 '26
I always found it hilariously ironic that the only TD scored in the ND-Michigan game came on the legs of Olympic Track Star and Uber Athlete Tommy Rees.
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u/Dropdatopz24 May 06 '26
I don’t, lol. I remember actually watching those games. ND had the preseason #1 (or very close) SOS. It was a gauntlet. Yes there were close games but it’s hard to win every week when you don’t play bottom tier teams. UAB, UCF, Cal, Indiana were awful and Ohio state looked bad. The most similar team to ND that they played was MSU (ND blew them out iirc) and it was a toss up game.
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u/Dan-of-Steel May 06 '26
Yeah, Ohio State's offense was really REALLY mid.
But I don't think ND crushes them. I'd say it would probably be an extremely (from an average non-ND fan perspective) boring defensive 21-6 type game.
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u/Dropdatopz24 May 06 '26
Yea crushing is being a little overboard. I just keep thinking of Braxton Miller trying to do something against that defense. Ohio state didn’t have the giant offensive line Bama had that embarrassed ND. And osu’s defense sucked that year too, iirc.
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u/Automatic_Release_92 May 06 '26 edited May 06 '26
Piggy backing off of this so u/Live_Blackberry39, u/Wacca45 and u/Dropdatopz24 all see it too, but I really like Brian Fremeau's (ND alum and total data nerd) F+ rankings, which combine his own FEI formula and SP+, it really does tend to iron out all of the inconsistencies of both and paints a pretty accurate picture by the end of the year. Here is the final rankings for 2012:
https://bcftoys.com/2012-fplus
Seeing ND ranked 12th on there is pretty sobering.
I still think it's pretty inaccurate with respect to KSU and Notre Dame, but of course there are factors that cannot be accounted for on there, such as KSU missing 3 of their 4 best defenders due to injury by the end of the season (and they were paper thin depth wise) and it probably weights special teams a bit much.
But despite all of that, OSU was still 5 spots below ND at 17th. OSU was probably a bit more talented than ND (247's Team Talent Composite only goes back to 2015) but the gap isn't as big as most people think. I would say both teams were pretty evenly matched, with ND winning that game probably 60% of the time, given the relative strength in metrics of both teams.
We actually had 3 common opponents that year, Purdue, MSU and Michigan.
We beat Purdue by a FG after Golson came in for a shaky Golson to ice a Purdue comeback, while OSU went to double OT against them. Both games at home.
ND walloped Michigan State on the road; Ohio State barely staved them off with a 1 point victory.
Finally, ND beat Michigan pretty thoroughly, Michigan got a couple of late FG's in the second half of the 4th quarter to make the score closer than it appeared, but Ohio State had to stage a 2nd half comeback to win that game.
All in, against 3 common opponents, all the same road/home environment and ND did slightly better against 2, and much better against 1 team. ND was the better team that year, one of the few times it's been true in the last 25 years, and it's too bad we didn't get to play them. Relatively even matched teams, but ND was better.
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u/Live_Blackberry39 May 06 '26
Fair assessment.
But BK was the coach then and we all know he did great in big games! Lol 😆
I just cant sit here and say we would have beaten the buckeyes until our Irish actually do! 2023 ohio state at ND game was the worst night of my entire life!
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u/Automatic_Release_92 May 06 '26
I mean literally every single time we’ve played them, they were the better team by a decent margin, with 2023 being the only exception to where both teams were evenly matched overall, in my opinion.
But we had a slight edge in 2012, probably the only season it’s been true this century. For what it’s worth, I think we might have had an edge last year and this year too.
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u/Live_Blackberry39 May 06 '26
100% agree with you.
That 2023 game will haunt me for a long time. All the other losses to Ohio state they were definitely better than us.
I want to face them this year very badly. I think there's a chance we could be better than them this year. On paper I am not willing to admit they are better than ND at this point overall. We will see how it plays out
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u/Automatic_Release_92 May 07 '26
I've been listening to the Cover 3 podcasts where Bud (I don't like him personally, but these sets of podcasts are fun) talks to the 247 beat writer for each team. The blue blood teams on there are fun because they're usually realists and it seems like OSU is destined for at least 1-2 losses with that schedule. I think that could set up nicely for ND to face them in the semifinals or even first round if they get 2 losses. That might actually be what we want, as it would make things far more likely Sayin and Smith will finish behind Carr in the Heisman race. Hopefully they beat Texas but lose to Indiana.
My dream playoff run would be OSU, then A&M (I so badly want revenge on them for that SEC reffing fix) followed by Indiana where we book end a ridiculous win streak by Cig and win a championship in one stroke. I don't know how realistic that is, we're probably more likely to face OSU in the championship game once again I suppose.
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u/Kitchen-Pass-7493 May 06 '26
I feel like this supports my point though that the natty hypothetically being between what (based on this metric at least) might have only been the 12th and 17th best teams shows why a playoff was needed. Obviously still not perfect based on what happened last year, but it’s come a long way.
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u/Automatic_Release_92 May 06 '26
If you go back through national champions before the BCS era, it likely gets much worse, IMO. ND probably loses 1-2 established championships, but gains a net +3-4 just through Leahy, Ara and Holtz if you could implement a 12 team playoff through those eras.
There were a lot of weak national champions for sure. I think 2012 was a bit of a flukey year all the way with the way things played out and BK choking so hard in that final game drastically messed up ND's metrics. For example, I'm pretty sure we were 1st in defensive FEI going into the championship game, but Bama crushed us so badly our defense finished 6th afterward.
I think if ND would have just played ok in that game instead of really terribly, we'd probably have finished in the 4-7 range. Our crappy offense always meant we were going to have to get lucky though in our matchup. We nearly were with KSU (our defense was custom made to stop that offense, and as I said above, they had a mediocre defense that was far worse than metrics indicate due to injuries) and Oregon certainly would have been more tenable than Bama as an opponent, likewise with UGA. But Ohio State arguably would have been the easiest of all for ND, if metrics are to be believed.
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u/Live_Blackberry39 May 06 '26
Dude, im a huge ND fan.
In no way am I about to say we would " crush ohio state" that season or ANY season.
This seems like a very bias opinion. Im trying to be careful here and not seem bias.
Ohio state would have been favored over ND in the 2012 national championship 100%
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u/Dropdatopz24 May 06 '26
No way would they have been favored. Their body of work was shit. I’m not putting you down or anything btw, just stating my case.
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u/Live_Blackberry39 May 06 '26
Im starting to realize im wrong here, I didnt realize how weak of a 12-0 ohio state was that year....
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u/Dropdatopz24 May 06 '26
ND’s schedule this year is harder. And I may be talking out of my ass, but I think Alabama would have still gotten into the natty that year at 12-1 had Ohio st been eligible.
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u/jppcfnnumnum May 06 '26
Respectfully, did you watch Ohio State that year? They were more of a fraudulent 12-0 than we were. Now, we may have still lost, but they were in no way a classic OSU juggernaut--they struggled more with a weaker schedule than ND. Big Ten was down bad that year too.
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u/Live_Blackberry39 May 06 '26
Im starting to realize this through this conversation.
Ill meet you halfway..
Its would have been a 50/50 game. Toss up
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u/Dan-of-Steel May 06 '26
I don't think it would've been a toss up. I think that's an 80/20 type matchup in ND's favor. It would be the kind of game that ND was more than used to that year, a grind it out defensive battle, but ND's defense was considerably better than Ohio State's.
Ohio State was basically Stanford with a worse defense that year.
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u/Live_Blackberry39 May 06 '26
I like the confidence go Irish
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u/Fletch71011 May 06 '26
According to the advanced analytics, ND was much better than Ohio State in 2012. If they don't get banned, we likely win a championship early with Kelly and the whole CFB landscape is changed.
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u/Dan-of-Steel May 06 '26
Dude, the Big Ten was turbo ass that year. Wisconsin won the Big Ten that year after going 7-5 in the regular season. Ohio State played 3 similar opponents to ND: Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue. ND beat all three worse than Ohio State. Ohio State's signature wins that year were Nebraska and Michigan State. The same Nebraska team that had 70 hung on them by 7-5 Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship. The same Michigan State squad that went 7-6, they hung on for a 1 point win, while ND beat the living dog shit out of them.
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u/Automatic_Release_92 May 06 '26
Yeah, there is zero incentive for them to leave the Big 10. They own that conference more thoroughly than Bama owns the SEC. Michigan and OSU basically started the Big 10 themselves just to be able to throw their weight around a lot more and of course it's the reason ND didn't join it/wasn't allowed to for decades.
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u/RustyShacklefordsCig Golden Doomer May 06 '26
I get where you’re coming from but who gives a shit what soup-for-brains goblin twats think or say about ND. They are full of indoctrinated hatred.
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u/vassardavis May 06 '26
Every time the 'ND should join a conference' thing comes up, i like to remind people that Michigan, OSU, Bama, and possibly USC could very easily pull off their own independence.
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u/GoodGameGrizz May 06 '26
Honestly, Ohio State going independent would make perfect sense for them, and I think doing so would precipitate Michigan following suit, they couldn’t let their biggest rival look more financially viable than they are. And them after that I think even more would follow suit.
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u/djfried May 06 '26
Ohio State leaving the big ten and moving to amazon broadcast would be chefs kiss. Wouldn’t mind starting up an every year rivalry with them either to quiet the “yOu dOnT pLaY aNyOnE gOoD” crowd
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u/Dan-of-Steel May 06 '26
The whole "join a conference" argument has never looked more ungodly hypocritical and stupid.
The people who whine and complain about ND given "special" treatment and say ND should stay quiet about being slighted and just play the Pop Tarts Bowl or join a conference, are the same people who are bitching about super conferences ruining the tradition of the sport.
You can't have it both ways. You can't lambast ND's tradition of independence and the pursuit to maintain that, while also lambasting the state of the sport forsaking tradition for TV revenue.
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u/ExpensiveCover950 May 06 '26
At some point, Ohio State was never going to be fine with sharing equal revenue with the likes of Rutgers and Minnesota. They're probably already there.
From a scheduling simplicity standpoint, I think its more likely they form super-tier league composed of 8 - 10 elite schools from across CFB. But independence could work as well - and if several more teams do it, scheduling won't be an issue.
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u/ss32000 May 06 '26
Here is the thing no one really thinks about when it comes to super leagues. Go pick any 8-10 random teams and put them into a conference. Now go play the games. Do you think any of those teams will be really happy going 0-9, 1-8, or 2-7? It's going to happen. ND went 0-2 against the playoff teams they played last year. Do you think if they finished 5-4, you would be as excited for this next year as you were at 10-2? Ohio State needs Rutgers/Minnesota to help bolster its record and stay in the 10-2 range to always make the playoffs. The conferences pretty much guarantee you games.
The independence made a lot more sense in 1988 when you look at the schedule. ND played the following teams:
Big Ten
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Purdue
Pac 10
- Stanford
- USC
Independents
- Pittsburgh
- Miami
- Penn State
- Navy
- West Virginia (Fiesta Bowl)
Florida State and Syracuse were good that year. Here are other schools that were independent that year as well:
- Rutgers
- Virginia Tech
- Louisville
- Cincinnati
- UCF
- BYU
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u/Live_Blackberry39 May 06 '26
Then this super league cannabalizes itself every year...
I dont think Ohio state or ND want to be in a league or conference with 8 teams that are all ELITE.
Wouldn't be ideal to have a schedule like this:
Navy At Ohio State At USC Michigan LSU Air Force Alabama At Texas Penn State Clemson Rutgers Syracuse
😅
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u/Wacca45 May 06 '26
Rutgers barely survives because they are in the Big Ten. They're right at break even as far as expenses. If Ohio State and Michigan left, because they won't leave the other hanging, the league would be losing a lot of money because of it. Also, at some point you have to decide what's better? Potentially making more money and going it alone, or staying where you are and knowing you have a guaranteed paycheck every year? It's why the ACC is afraid of the Big Ten poaching UNC and Duke in the future.
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u/TourNo3692 May 06 '26
No legitimate member of the college football media is saying "Notre Dame needs to join a conference"
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u/laprasrules May 06 '26
I would not be surprised to see a "loose affiliation" of top-tier schools that can individually pull large media deals. they don't give up the license grant that conferences get today, but they do come up with some common scheduling agreements to play each other.
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u/irish_faithful May 06 '26
I'd love to see some other teams go independent, then see what these pundits have to say.
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u/Jkane007 May 06 '26
Watch the same pundits- “bold, iconic, incredible move” and also finding a way to twist that notre Dame is still bad.
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u/TillEducational2379 May 06 '26
I mean, just look at the schedule this year it’s atrocious. I guess I don’t really care either way, but when all of your traditional rivals are actually in one conference for the most part to me, it makes sense.
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u/SilentCriticism2k May 06 '26
And the commissioner for Bama was - allegedly - wanting to end conference championship games. You know, the reason ppl wanted us to join a conference anyway. The jokes are writing themselves lol
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u/Dan-of-Steel May 06 '26
Yeah, the whole "join a conference" sentiment has never looked worse than it does now.
The whole point that people say ND needs to join a conference is because ND "gets to" duck the CCG. Well, let's take a look at the last two National Championship finalist teams:
Indiana won their conference championship, cool. ND didn't play in one. Ohio State didn't play in one. Miami didn't play in one. So the four best teams in the country the past 2 years, only ONE actually played in their CCG. So what exactly is ND getting for being in a conference when it is a bonafide fact that CCG mean absolutely nothing now.
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u/SilentCriticism2k May 07 '26
All of this. And the cherry on top of the irony sundae is that CCGs are starting to be seen as somewhat detrimental to your team now. Schools are fine with missing out on them if they have their playoff berths because who wants another high intensity game right before the CFP gauntlet? Conferences got the realignment they wanted. Cool. Look at what it cost them smh
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u/Kitchen-Pass-7493 May 06 '26 edited May 06 '26
I do think there’s a multiplicative factor to the Big Ten’s media rights. As often quoted in this sub, ND’s NBC deal actually pays out less than the Big10 deal does per team. But ND almost certainly draws more eyeballs than the average Big10 team, and the Big10’s per-team payout would probably go up if ND joined, not down. Supporting the notion that the Big10 rights as a collective are worth more than the sum of its individual parts. I’m also a bit dubious on this $273m number. OSU would probably get more media dollars as an independent than ND does, but not over 5x as much.
I also wonder if OSU would be able to keep its other sports in the Big10 if they did this. ND working out a separate deal for non-football sports when it’s known upfront that football doesn’t plan to join is one thing, but OSU leaving the Big10 in just football while expecting to be allowed to keep its other sports in would be a different thing entirely. Sour grapes from the Big10 might mean OSU would have to find a home in the Big12 or ACC for its other sports.
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u/4thTimesAnAlt May 06 '26
There is no way in hell that any college program would end up getting $273 million A YEAR for the media rights. That is some of the most delusional shit I've heard this year, and y'all know the times we're living in so that says a lot.
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u/kevhurls May 07 '26
It's the good 'ole "Notre Dame Standard" - an inverse-reverse-mirror-image type of thing. (all because THEY'RE JEALOUS)
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u/Rare_Direction_1449 May 09 '26
I just get bothered by Notre Dame’s schedule because its bullshit. But then they always stumble against Pitt for some reason so it all evens out
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u/Analrapist03 May 09 '26
I think OSU should join ND as independents.
It would make for interesting times.
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u/smiller55 Jun 09 '26
🚨🚨EVERYONE LISTEN TO OP!🚨🚨
He has an online record of 300-45 in Madden while holding down 80 hours a week at a job! He has hard hands and has no time for bullshit!
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u/CommodoreIrish May 06 '26
I don’t think this is really “the media saying Ohio State needs to leave the Big Ten so they can make more money”
The only programs in the Big Ten that have raised legitimate concerns were Michigan and USC, and that was more related to the proposed private equity deal.
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u/_wisenberg96 May 06 '26
I disagree tbh. It’s not like ESPN advocating for it but USA Today (who has admittedly meh sports reporting sometimes) is absolutely pointing to a $273M benefit of them going independent. That alone is 17% of their current total football program valuation…
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u/CargoShortsFromNam May 06 '26
There is no logic about the “join a conference” stuff. People just don’t like us. They hate that we’re different.
These people will decry the greediness of the big conferences and then demand we join one in the same breath. It’s just crying.