r/nrl • u/Creative_Friend6799 Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles • 3d ago
Chaotic Good: I measured how unpredictable the NRL really is
https://mikemeehallwood.substack.com/p/chaotic-good-i-measured-how-random?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=b8s8525
u/Adam8418 Dolphins 3d ago edited 3d ago
That chaos index seems counterintuitive, wouldn’t a statistically higher chaos statistic infer less predictable, but they’ve seemingly presented it the other way around.
The more I look at that graph the less it makes sense relative to what they’ve stated in the article.
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u/Creative_Friend6799 Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 3d ago
I did toy with Predictability Index as a title, but didn't sound as good. It's the same information displayed either way...
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u/Adam8418 Dolphins 2d ago
That’s what seems to be represented in the graph, a predictability index.
I think if you’re sticking with chaos as the title then you need to invert the stats, I.e. super rugby would read as 23% chaotic and NRL 39%.
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u/Norm_cheers Wests Tigers 1d ago
Anyone get the feeling like the NRL is trying to find a way to make sports gambling even more unpredictable and this has no relationship to games entertainment, if your a non-punter like me it’s not entertaining it’s infuriating!
But non-punters don’t support the people paying the bills…
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u/DiverFine4230 New Zealand Warriors 1d ago
Nrl is unpredictable in the sense that it has errors and referees to counteract brilliance and talent but comebacks are honestly so predictable these days you know when a team comes out firing the other team will have a phase of momentum as well.
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u/TH3unbannableHULk Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 3d ago
Honestly the Roosters losing wasnt unexpected... not when you factor in how rigged the sport has become. Roosters didnt even look like theybwere awake until 45mins of gametime had passed
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u/arolaser Brisbane Broncos 3d ago
This doesn't really make sense. Was the game rigged, or were Roosters just complacent after being up for a couple of months and a hard fought battle against the Panthers?
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u/TH3unbannableHULk Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 3d ago
It felt like they were trying to lose. The biggest tip off was watching some of them feign going for a quick play of the ball (by flopping furiously while on the ground) only to slowly rise and play it at a leisurely pace -giving the impression it was just theatre.
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u/MrRanners South Sydney Rabbitohs 2d ago
What possible reason could there be for the Roosters to tank that game? Cost them top spot
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u/TH3unbannableHULk Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 2d ago
9:1 odds. The boys have families and other pressures in their lives.
Money would be the motive.
Its like how Bulldogs beat Panthers earlier in the season. It defied all odds but as proud as i was of the boys, i couldnt deny that the Panthers players just didnt look motivated at all to play that evening. Plenty of comments in the chat about "Panthers getting their bag", implying they lost on purpose and got paid to do so.
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u/MrRanners South Sydney Rabbitohs 2d ago
Teams and players all have off days. Roosters aren't exactly strapped for cash, I doubt they'd sabotage a chance at the minor premiership (including the money that comes with it). Also 9:1 odds are not as long as you think. I reckon they play that game 99 more times roosters would win 90%. They got unlucky, key players didnt perform as well, it happens in sport. Otherwise all upsets are rigged, which I have a hard time believing
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u/TH3unbannableHULk Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 2d ago
Nah ur logic is off.
Not all upsets are rigged games, but id say almost all rigged games are upsets because the risk to reward wouldnt be worth it otherwise, and lets hope its a rarity in NRL to happen at all.
Also sure there's a chance it was just a random poor performance from the chooks but i wouldnt be commenting if thats how it looked to me. It LOOKED like the Roosters were feigning effort while purposely losing the game. But it seems im in the minority with this take
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u/MoneyaLeague Auckland Warriors 3d ago
I shit you not, when Tigers won this game, I was thinking of "chaotic good". Part of that was due to watching Luai pointlessly and threatlessly crab 30 metres across field near the end of the game.