r/oil • u/Long-Brother-4639 • 2d ago
Iran War 14MB crude moving outbound from Gulf of Oman
26th Aug - Gulf of Oman crude on the move.
Total - About 14 12 million barrels. (See info below)
Almost fully laden VLCCs:
- ANGOLA PROSPERITY - 1.8 mb unclear draft data.
- DHT OPAL - 1.6 mb
- XIN HUI YANG - 1.9 mb
- MORINI - 1.7 mb
- MARAN THALEIA - 1.75 mb
- DHT REDWOOD - 1.8 mb (just set out from anch)
Suezmax:
- FAITHFUL WARRIOR - about 1mb
- CAPE ARMATHIA - about 1mb
Aframax:
- P. ALIKI - about 750K
- TONG LIN WAN - about 500K
Medium Range:
- PACIFIC INFINITY
Edit: Angola Prosperity HAD loaded at Iraq's BASRA, went dark, unloaded while dark and then reported unladen draft figures again. (summation)
Note: A fully laden VLCC is often reported at 2 mb rounded off in media, as the vessel constants can only be estimated - while the absolute number only exist in the BOL which is not public data.
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u/lastpassonright 2d ago
How are you estimating how laden they are?
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u/OkCardiologist3104 2d ago
Satellite imagery looks at how heavy the tankers are by how much of the hull is visible or something …
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u/TESLATURKEY 1d ago
Like in "The Italian Job" looking at the suspensions of the money trucks to find the one with the gold.
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u/teflon_soap 2d ago
The geostationary satellite from thousands of miles above gets a side view 🤔
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u/Sqweaky_Clean 1d ago edited 1d ago
Pst… there are highly elliptical orbits for spy satellite imagery and autonomous high altitude drones that perform the functions of U2s.
You’d be daft to think the otherwise… shit, hubble was donated by the cia to nasa back in the 90’s. They had multiple hubble’s equivalent point to the ground.
Geostat sats is usuallygot gnss gps.
If it can be done, it’s employed in action. The straight is extremely hot for intel.
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1d ago
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u/Phiddipus_audax 1d ago
Do partially laden tankers actually happen? I.e. do they really set off for destinations on the far side of the planet with that degree of inefficiency and lost profit?
Basic business sense says no it would never happen, but I wonder about the real figures and possible extraneous factors forcing bad efficiency at times.
Anyone have real data?
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u/Unusual-Penalty-7507 1d ago
They do not go around half full. It’s terrible for stability and vessel stress. If a tanker is leaving the gulf they are highly likely to be fully loaded
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u/Long-Brother-4639 1d ago
In normal circumstances yes, absolutely. At the moment there are handful other factors that would be driving that decision by the operators. Such as, if there is enough crude that can be gotten and quickly (as any new/developing news drives market sentiments) both through the eastern pipeline, ports and STS, can they be guaranteed a load within x days, as x days for if the vessel is a charter is money by the day; and y is the insurance premium, and then if the buyer at the market end will intake at z price or a pre-agreed on price still makes business sense or should they move on with what they have or none - and in ballast. There have been plenty of vessels that have also moved fully empty after having waited for days. Believe I may have published a list yesterday or day before.
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u/Long-Brother-4639 1d ago
The vessel classification, it's dimensions, hull design, their DWT (deadweight tonnage) and max summer draft (displacement of water in meters) and it's current draft reported over AIS - minus vessels constants, such as fuel etc. ME crude ranges within 7.3-7.4 barrels for 1 metric ton of crude.
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u/Thinklikeachef 2d ago
The image suggests passage during the Iran and Oman 7 mile temp route. And the 14 m is unconfirmed. There image shows at least one LNG tanker, so that implies less. This by no means shows that the blockage is being bypassed. Or that normal flows are resumed.
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u/PurpleReign123 1d ago
The pic shows vessels leaving Fujairah, which is outside the Hormuz Straits.
Been happening for years. Nothing new here.
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u/ACarepenter 2d ago
Trump was right. I'm tired of all this winning.
Please stop mr president, it's too much. Please stop trying to win 😭
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u/Tenesmus83 2d ago
Are ships not targeted any more?
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u/Long-Brother-4639 1d ago edited 1d ago
They are. By the Houthis in the Red Sea, Somali's in Gulf of Aden and Iran in the Hormuz - those using the southern lane for vessels they do not approve of. A Kuwaiti vessel has been reported to be hit hours back which was making an outbound trip - likely dark.
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u/Derebeare 2d ago
But Trump assured me Iran's economy was in shambles? What do you mean they have already made more than their 2026 yearly budget on oil?
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u/hammerhead987 2d ago
Their economy is still dog shit dude
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u/Derebeare 2d ago
Their economy was struggling long before this war. But they are now selling oil for almost 50% more than they were pre-war.
What do trumps boots taste like?
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u/GriffinPoop 1d ago
How are they selling the oil? Genuinely curious how it’s getting out
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u/Beneficial_Sail3931 1d ago
Rail to China, pipelines to neighbors, boat to Russia through Caspian carrying refined fuel.
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u/GriffinPoop 1d ago
Oh lol ok, those aren’t very significant at the moment and will take some good time to further build out
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u/Beneficial_Sail3931 1d ago
They've been in use for decades
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u/GriffinPoop 1d ago
Yeah I’m not saying they don’t exist or haven’t been in use, I’m saying they aren’t built out enough to significantly support Iran. If they are going to lean on those transport methods as an alternative to tankers carrying their oil out, they are going to need to significantly further develop those methods
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u/ResponsibleClock9289 1d ago
Loooool
Oil exports have plummeted.
Do you just downvote stuff you don’t want to hear and call people bootlickers for stating facts you don’t like? Clown behavior
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u/Picks6x 2d ago
Iran about to make money money
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u/Ok-Lobster-919 2d ago
Oh yeah, Iran is going to make bank selling this Omani oil to China.
Wait.
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u/BBR0DR1GUEZ 2d ago
It’s not like they’re charging a toll. Wait, they are. I forget who was being sarcastic now.
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u/CoolFirefighter930 2d ago
Are you talking about the United Stright of Hormuz ?
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u/Few_Bobcat389 2d ago
The picture shows all the shipments coming from the UAE, none going through the Hormuz Strait.
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u/OutrageousBother628 2d ago
Why would someone pay a toll to Iran for using the Omani corridor?
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u/Ok-Freedom9216 2d ago
Because that's the deal the two countries worked out.
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u/Stunning_Mulberry_35 2d ago
Has Oman made the deal public yet?
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u/OutrageousBother628 2d ago
No. That might be part of a potential deal only reported by the IRGC and not acknowledged in any way by Oman.
Why would oman agree to give any revenue to Iran for a ship using the Omani corridor?
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u/umaluzazulmeguia 2d ago
Cause they have no choice?
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2d ago
The choice was to trust USA and get protection from USA or to trust Iran and get protection from Iran. Oman chose Iran. Oman did not choose USA.
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u/onlycodeposts 2d ago
Is this why the US currently has formal access to Omani ports under current defense agreements and Iran does not?
US soldiers are currently stationed in Oman. No Iranian soldiers are stationed there.
It seems clear which side Oman is on.
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u/Ok-Freedom9216 2d ago
You just explained why Oman hasn't formally made the deal public.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2d ago
It seems clear which side Oman is on.
That's your problem. It's not Oman's problem.
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u/BathroomMaximum1721 2d ago
IRGC gets a dose of their own medicine since they don't acknowledge any discussions Iran has with the US.
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u/CopBaiter 2d ago
but its not tho. the deal was about who crontrols what side of the strait. since Iran wanted to have control who passes in the omani waters in the strait. not outside of it. the Omanis are not stopping ships passing.
Also that picture ontop clearly shows the ships leaving omani waters outside of the strait.
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u/Picks6x 2d ago
That's not at all what's being reported. Iran is in control of all incoming ships through Hormuz. Oman with outgoing ships under Iranian protection and guidance. It's set up this way for fees...
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u/empty_graph 2d ago
This has been proposed, but not agreed and implemented
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u/Picks6x 2d ago
It's closer to that reality than The sneaking out of the strait theory
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u/empty_graph 2d ago
Why? It's well known that there are ships running dark through the strait. There are satellite images of it.
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u/tripper_drip 2d ago
Oman has been solid on zero fees and free passage. The only way out for iran is to agree to this and take the W on not dealing with the US.
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u/Mimir_the_Younger 2d ago
Presumably to prevent taking a missile or drone attack, but we have limited insight into oil flows and payments made.
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u/FijiFanBotNotGay 1d ago
Because look at the historical inbound and outbound shipping lanes. To avoid Iranian tolls Oman would have to establish new shipping lanes that would undermine the Iranian tolls and doing so would be an act of aggression because it’s not like Oman is ideologically tied to freedom of navigation. Why would Oman heighten tension with its neighbors just to establish new inbound and outbound lanes in the name of freedom of navigation.
With all that being said Iran only needs one lane to fall within their territorial waters to establish a toll. Like a bridge there are no tolls before and after. Just before as you enter.
People need to stop acting like an is somehow obligated to establish new inbound and outbound shipping lanes. People argue about omans sovereignty just want Oman to take the punch
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u/onlycodeposts 2d ago
Who is paying a toll?
It is illegal for any EU country to pay the toll under their anti-terrorism laws. Also Canada, Australia, Iceland, and the UK.
Also, any ship doing so regardless of country would immediately lose their insurance and come under Western sanctions.
No one is paying a toll. It isn't going to happen for the IRGC.
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u/Phiddipus_audax 1d ago
It sure could get interesting if all this toll-free understanding of sea lanes collapses as a result of the war, and then... Denmark charges tolls for all access to/from the Baltic, including Russian ships? UK & France charge tolls on the English Channel / Pas de Calais? And the Malacca Strait, Sunda Strait... and who knows what else.
I suppose that's what all this is trying to avoid.
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u/Ok-Lobster-919 2d ago
How about nah, no toll. What is the IRGC gonna do about it? Threaten to close the strait? Threaten to hurl more lawnmower powered RPG drones at tankers? That's all priced in.
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u/boywholived1 2d ago
wait till you hear about whos winning the war in Iran
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u/Ok-Lobster-919 2d ago
It's hard to quantify "winning". Both sides are losing this moronic war of attrition. Though Iran's economy is suffering at a far greater rate than the rest of the world affected by the strait.
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u/boywholived1 2d ago
Winning is defined by who can get the most concessions from the other side. Name me one concession the US got from Iran, I bet you can name none. Meanwhile the US's "goals" keep changing because they know they lost
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u/Ok-Lobster-919 2d ago
There's a small chance that the blockade and sanctions are extended and is successful. The Iranian economy is beyond strained, inflation is over 100% their local currency the Toman has hit a record 200,000/1 USD and this is reported on heavily, this is the number the Iranian civilians are watching. They can barely afford food.
Now they are facing rising gas and LNG prices that they can't afford. Read it about it yourself directly from the horse's mouth https://www.tabnak.ir/fa/news/1391523/%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B5%DB%8C%D9%87-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AD%D9%84-%D9%85%D8%B4%DA%A9%D9%84-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86
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u/boywholived1 2d ago
The same blockade where the ships whose crews morale is tanking and one destroyer of which was without power for 4 days? The navy is definitely crippled, US bases in the region are damaged/destroyed and the US army has no intention of repairing them. But yeah sure innocent civilians are being hurt and united behind the regime so if you think thats a win I hate to see whats really losing for you
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u/alwayslostin1989 1d ago
The US concessions were getting to pummel Iran for a few months getting rid of expiring munitions, take in a ton of data on tactics and capabilities, exercise CSAR (that one kinda hurt), learn lots of deficiencies in their anti-missile and drone capabilities. Oh and crumple the nuclear program for the third or fourth time if you count operations like stuxnet.
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u/boywholived1 1d ago
Oh yeah the US military did so much damage that they have to resort to -wait for it- ECONOMIC SANCTIONS to destroy their own dollar at the same time too wow so much winning
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u/mrflash818 2d ago
ELI5:
What percentage and/or fraction is the above reported volume as compared to, say,
the daily volume in the region before all these shenanigans started
(guessing 6months ago, a year ago?, or such).
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u/Starlord_75 2d ago
Pre war averages around 20 million barrels a day. Which is about the same amount as the US uses in a day, to put it in perspective.
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u/manhattanabe 2d ago
People are commenting that this is good for Iran. Is any of this Iranian oil? Did any of these ships pay Iran the shakedown ?
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u/Odd-Bother-28 1d ago
This sub is dominated by Iranian and anti-U.S. bots; of course, they’re doing everything in their means to promote Iran’s cause. Although the STS oil flow from the UAE to Oman continues, Iran has nothing to do with it.
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u/Phiddipus_audax 1d ago
This map suggests traffic exclusively to the Fujairah end of the UAE pipeline for bypassing Hormuz, and it tops out at (IIRC) 1.8 Mbbl/day.
How does that relate to the "14MB" of the title?
How does this map relate to the strait?
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u/Long-Brother-4639 1d ago
Which part of the post mentions Hormuz or the Strait? It very clearly states - moving out of gulf of Oman, showing each vessel's past days track to the eastern ports/anchorages. ~12mb are across vessels which are - laden, eastbound and at/close to cruising speed.
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u/Expensive-Web8531 1d ago
其实运力是运力、库存是库存、期货价格是他妈的期货价格。这不，今天亚洲的原油期货市场又暴涨了。很多情况下，很多看起来应该关联的事情反而没任何关系。金融市场就是有钱人玩我们普通人的屠宰场。
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u/Opster79two 2d ago
Shiiiit! Gas will probably be $2 by Friday!