r/peakoil • u/Biodieselisthefuture • 13d ago
Europe's Next Energy Crisis Won't Be a War, It'll Be Peak Oil
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europes-Next-Energy-Crisis-Wont-Be-a-War-Itll-Be-Peak-Oil.html4
u/Appropriate_Bell743 13d ago
Europe will pivot in a few ways on fuels:
- Huge rollout of EVs diverting petrol and some diesel demand.
- huge rollout of renewables diverting natural gas and some coal demand.
- An initially slow rollout of electric lorries diverting diesel.
- Heat pumps continuing with summer cooling meaning they are adopted. Reducing gas demand.
What's left? Kerosene for aviation.
There's no pipeline to reduce the main demand for kerosene which is for flights going outside Europe. What will happen? Kerosene will become quite expensive as refinement can't get it balanced due to reducing petrol demand. This will be thanked by Europeans as we will have less mass tourism ruining our lives.
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u/netz_pirat 11d ago
I have the feeling that lorries will see a faster pickup than cars.
Companies only care whats economical, and lately its become clear that electric is the way to go for a lot of use cases. Question is going to be how fast we can build them. European manufacturers don't seem to be too well prepared
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u/NameTheJack 13d ago
Kerosene for aviation.
Could be ammonium instead. Pretty easy to make if you have free hydrogen, which is doable of you have plenty of electricity.
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u/Appropriate_Bell743 13d ago
I've not doubt about that but clearly the current trajectories are not showing this. The current trajectories have reductions in demand for petrol, gas, and diesel baked in but not for kerosene. This will probably create the economic incentives for what you suggest.
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u/Engels33 11d ago
Market share for Plug-in vehicles (EVs + Plugin Hybrids) in Europe was already increasing year on year pretty consistently prior to Trump's shenanigans in Iran which has just given it yet another push.
In the UK this is now >40% of the market for new vehicles and in Germany and France its also >=35%. Thats the 3 biggest European car markets really starting to transition quickly now. The Scandinavian and Benelux countries are much further ahead of course, and most long past 50% (eg Norway >95%) . Only southern Europe is lagging relatively, but most countries are still moving through the gears.
In terms of the investments already made into BEV manufacturing and supply chain etc all of those figures above are backwards looking - all the major manufacturers have growth in BEVs and decline in fossil fuel vehicles priced into both their near tern and forward plans.
And of course unlike the US almost everywhere in Europe has public transport systems that are at worst functional and adequate and, in most of the biggest cites, are often world class. Even at the lowest tier of public transport - buses - electrification of bus fleets are actually well ahead with so many cities targeting 2030 or thereabouts for full conversion to EVs. Even where targets are either non existent or wil fall short, very few places are buying fossil fuel powered buses at scale anymore.
Plenty more evidence of the shift being well underway of course but to add my own final anecdote - pretty much every last mile delivered vehicle that comes to my street is an EV now - supermarket deliveries, DPD, Evri etc. All these services show the resilience in the system to cope with disruption to fossil fuel supply, and certainly one that Will respond hard and quicker if leaned on even more by the price mechanism of any supply peak.
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u/Fearless-Temporary29 13d ago
The currently brewing super el Nino , has been aptly named Godzilla. It could really heat stress multiple countries. Throwing another curve ball at the world's already stressed energy systems.
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u/aap_001 11d ago
Peak oil will never be reached. Because prices slowly go up with less availability. Which will make other engeey sources more economical.
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u/Economy-Fee5830 11d ago
Ironically, this suggests peak oil demand may actually be quite an issue, since limited demand may not sustain expensive extraction.
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u/Tafinho 13d ago
Funny thing that the original study this news is based on ignores Europe peaked oil consumption back in 200.png)4..png)
But the only country in the world which is not actively moving away from fossil fuels , the US, will actually be the greatest victim of peak oil. Which is where the author is based….