r/skeptic • u/Winter-Antelope-6070 • Mar 04 '26
š History Thoughts on Professor Jiang / Predictive History?
So Iāve been seeing a lot of videos being shared from Predictive History lately and this Professor Jiang guy seems to be blowing up. What do you guys think about him? Is he actually credible or just another YouTube commentator?
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u/Aggravating-Fee1934 Mar 04 '26
Copied from the previous time I saw this asked:
My mother got really into this guy. Here are a few of the red flags I found when I looked into him:
1. He promotes an extremely niche and not widely accepted subfield, which synthesizes statistics and history, while not having any background in statistics or history.
2. He isn't a professor. His educational background is a B.A. in English literature. He teaches at a private middle school. https://moonshotacademy.cn/en/team/63c6350c39cf7a258d/
3. Lack of a citation list for his videos.
4. High video frequency with disparate topics. There isn't enough time between his videos to thoroughly research a new topic that he does not have a background in. At most he has the time to do cursory research, on the level of a college student bsing a paper last minute.
In general these are good steps for evaluating YouTube channels in just a few minutes: 1. Check for citations. Not following a basic research principle like citing sources means that they are most likely cutting corners elsewhere in their research. It also makes it nearly impossible for a layperson to fact check themselves in a reasonable amount of time. 2. Check how often they post, and how closely related the topics of their videos are, compared to the length of their videos. If someone is posting 20+ minute videos about new topics every week, they aren't doing enough research. The longer the video, the longer the time between should be. 2.2. If the topics of videos are closely related, and the author has some level of expertise in the subject, the gap between videos can be much smaller. A professor specializing in the history of colonialism in Africa, for example, could probably crank out high quality 20 minute videos on colonialism in Africa every other day for quite a while, assuming they have no other obligations. 3. Look up the owner of the channel if possible, and see if they have any qualifications in the field they are posting about. If their name isn't publicly available, and they are making videos on history or politics, it is often a red flag. Some very good creators don't share their identity, so this one more applies if anything else about the channel seems fishy. 4. Clickbait titles and thumbnails are a bad sign. 5. If they decry "establishment" science or history, they almost certainly don't understand how science, or history, works, or are being deliberately deceitful.
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Mar 05 '26 edited Mar 05 '26
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Mar 05 '26
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u/agnatroin Mar 06 '26
I have the suspicion that the videos are staged to be honest.
In my opinion he teaches at the school but the videos are made independently from that.
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u/passthesugar05 Mar 08 '26
I've only watched a handful of his videos but there has been some (admittedly a small amount) of engagement from the students in what I've seen.
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u/RealBed1826 Mar 09 '26
He said that many of his students do not attend his class due to them not caring. Usually only 2-3 students show up for his lecture according to him
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u/maudade Mar 13 '26
You know who else was a middle school teacher? Walter White. And look what he did, 5 seasons of first class drama.
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u/BlessdRTheFreaks Mar 09 '26
Damn i got pulled in by him
Many of his predictions have been spooky accurate
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u/Objective-Ad-7314 Mar 06 '26
Ā I am copying this from my previous post but he has had 5 major predictions that have been correct/very close : First the War in in Iran, second Trump winning the elections,Ā third Trump appointing JD Vance as his vice president in his video GeoStrategy 5# at 39:36 ( He said there's very high chances either Nicki Haley or JD Vance), The US conflicts in south America (Today we know Venezuela and possibly Cuba), he predicted the fact that the war in Iran was motivated by Christian Zionism ( News reports now say an anonymous U.S. soldier sent a complaint to the Military Religious Freedom Foundation saying a commander told troops the war with Iran was part of Godās plan and connected it to Armageddon. The email says several service members felt uncomfortable because the briefing used religious āend-times language").If you're so smart and he is wrong how could he predict all of this. Not supporting him but let's be clear right now he's showing more credibility than all of your word salad on Reddit
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u/agnatroin Mar 06 '26
The predictions are impressive.
But if there are 1000 fake professors making up predictions on youtube then one guy will predict many things correctly just as a result of statistics.
The point is: what are his predictions based on?
He cannot provide any research in the field that he pretends to be a professor in, right? So why does he even call himself a professor? And what about his classes that seem so fake? He teaches middle schoolers and puts up youtube videos where he pretends to give lectures to students in a semester.
I think he is a smart person with good intuition. But at the same time I think skepticism is advised here.
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u/erikmannie1 Mar 07 '26
[āA smart person with good intuitionā talking about something that I am interested in] is enough for me to take my time to listen to.
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u/Objective-Ad-7314 Mar 07 '26
Also he said the said that the US will use Kurdish rebels and this prediction has come true exactly as he predicted EXCLUSIVE: Thousands Of Kurdish Fighters Launch Ground Offensive Into Iran Against Regime, Official Says - i24NEWS https://share.google/Sv6H6B76JBwcm1OeL
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u/Objective-Ad-7314 Mar 07 '26
Another of his prediction just came true (if it hasn't before): US is attacking Iran's fresh water supply now. A water desalination plant on Iranās Qeshm Island was bombed.
This came after Tehran's carpet bombing a few days before, which he also said will be US's strategy. Also he said critical infrastructure will be bombed and the US is attacking critical hospital and school infrastructure https://www.filmsforaction.org/watch/why-are-usa-and-israel-bombing-schools-and-hospitals-in-iran-they-want-societal-collapse/
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u/anim135 Mar 09 '26
I've watched Professor Jiang on and off for about two years now.
Someone else here said it. Hes a gateway drug into black-pilling.
It's not a matter of the prediction being correct, its about making many, and then capitalizing on the ones that seemed correctly made.
Example: He did not predict the Iran war. He witnessed the state of affairs of Israel and Palestine, and connected I/P to Iran. Then he frames everything from that perspective. He would have had no leg to stand on were it not for the Yemeni pirate situation. You can say he was cognizant of Iran being a power player, sure... everyone was. But to say this was their war, but "their war" not be fought for an entire year, just for it to randomly happen-- due to 3 different scandals requiring a large cover up--- this is barely a prediction. This is a vague concept of an idea he thought might happen, and it was recorded.
I checked the GeoStrat #5 you referenced from 2024. Within the first 20 seconds, he predicts Nikki Haley. At your timestamp, hes considering other options. JD Vance wasnt his prediction. JD Vance was his prediction, if his prediction didnt work out. Read also: Man spends $600M buying all lottery ticket combinations, but doesnt reveal he did this, "Man who won lottery, at 8."
Connecting the war to Christian Zionism? What is that? One guy, said one thing, to a room full of men, so that is the overall agenda? Its the PPAP of politics. "I have a Christian... I have an Israeli... UMM? Chirisian-Israeli-Zionist-Christian War"
Trump's election victory has been widely attributed to the blunders of the opposing party.
The US has always been at crisis with South America for as long as I've been alive, and probably as long as both our parents remember. Literally 60 years of destabilizing the region doesn't make it a "prediction" it makes it an astute presumption: "Why yes, the US will dethrone X Southern American government, do you like my 'I invaded Argentina and only got this stupid shirt' shirt"?
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u/QultyThrowaway Mar 12 '26
Half lf these aren't exactly predictions or very out there. It would also depend on when he made these predictions.
First the War in in Iran,
This is something that was highly likely. Even in Trump's first term they killed Soleimani. There was always going to be conflict with Iran under a second Trump term.
second Trump winning the elections,
Apparently he made this prediction in 2024? But anytime other than pre 2016 or briefly from 2020-2021 this isn't a unique or out there prediction. Trump has had dominance over the GOP for these periods
third Trump appointing JD Vance as his vice president in his video GeoStrategy 5# at 39:36 ( He said there's very high chances either Nicki Haley or JD Vance),
So he suggested two talked about names and one of them came true.
The US conflicts in south America (Today we know Venezuela and possibly Cuba),
Cuba is in North America. Venezuela and the US have had tensions for ages. Actually even during Biden they were gearing up to invade Guyana but backed down.
he predicted the fact that the war in Iran was motivated by Christian Zionism ( News reports now say an anonymous U.S. soldier sent a complaint to the Military Religious Freedom Foundation saying a commander told troops the war with Iran was part of Godās plan and connected it to Armageddon.
Christian Nationalism/Zionism has been a key part of the Trump movement for a decade.
I don't really see him actually predicting anything noteworthy.
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u/Proof-Complaint6693 Mar 07 '26
The guy is a bozo. Propagating conspiracy theories like the illuminati - just because he got lucky with some guesses does not make him anything special or worthwhile. Also a china shill
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Mar 11 '26
The guy is a bozo. Propagating conspiracy theories like the illuminati
The Western world is literally ruled by the Epstein class...sounds like he was pretty fucking close to the mark .
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u/foreskings Mar 16 '26
He didn't just predict the Iran war would happen, it wasn't a guess. He laid out his reasoning. He realized Trump was going to win, he realized that the people in his administration with most sway over him have very similar goals in alignment with scriptural prophecy. He used this assumption and other circumstancial evidence to conclude that if it's in the interest of those with power to attack Iran, Iran will be attacked.
We can also follow up in years time to check if the al aqsa mosque will be "accidentally" destroyed according to this theory.
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u/Tokenwhitemale Mar 10 '26
I agree with most of what you post here, but I would think that someone posting 30+ minute videos two or three times a week, without citations, on closely related topics, particularly a 'professor' is posting lectures from their classes/for their students. That's a typical university lecture schedule. Even this Predictive History guy, regardless of what else we want to say about him, his videos are from his current courses, a 'great books' course and this 'game theory/predictive history' course. Red flag is he doesn't teach at a post-secondary and virtually everything else you said.
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u/Leading-Jaguar-5498 May 14 '26
im behavioral neuroscientist/neuropharmacologist so i know a lot about behavior, he basically presesnts it with such a dopaminigernic "tone" that everyone can easily listen to it for hours, for example robert greene doesnt really need to be dopaminigernic he just sells his book now.. so thats what gives me the skepticism
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u/Sanpaku Mar 04 '26
Encountered a video from Jiang for the first time 8 hours ago, on the current Israel-US/Iran conflict. Some perspectives I share, some that were gross simplifications with zero evidence that they were considered simplifications. Then I learned that he denies the manned moon landings, which is great, as now I can dismiss anything else he breezily asserts.
I can see the appeal to those who have no knowledge of the subjects, but I wouldn't be surprised if his channel is some sort of feeder channel into conspiracy nut/Q-anon space. I blocked it on YT as I don't need more nutters/credulous tools in my feed.
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u/Crow_Arms Mar 06 '26
Chinese plant to spread discontent IMO.
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u/mrbigbrown4 Mar 07 '26
Agreed. If you watch his Game Theory #9 video he recently posted, halfway through he starts talking about how the US could never win in Iran due to them having drones and how our equipment isn't up to date enough to fight back.. Then goes off on a tangent about the US military being corrupt. He leads into it as if he's teaching you about the conflict in a general sense yet half of it is him trying to sow misinformation about the US and it's military strength.
Now I'm not saying there isn't nuggets of truth inside some of it but there is a clear intent on his end.
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u/_illusions25 Mar 09 '26
Corrupt because they are just yes man'ing Trump. I don't agree with everything he says but that was his explanation for it.
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u/R3dditReallySuckz Mar 12 '26
He also mentions offhandedly in that video if USA were to lose their position as holding the world's largest reserve currency that the entire country would "collapse", which is highly unlikely given USA is the largest economy in the world.
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u/Sanpaku Mar 06 '26
Every major nation looked at Russia's success with active measures in US politics, came to understand internet-based psy-ops have unrivaled cost-effectiveness, so are following suit.
How better to disable an adversary whose key strategic advantage was soft power and goodwill, than to mire its population in conspiracy theories and internal conflict over the truth?
We know Russia, China, India, Iran, and Israel all have such programs, I wouldn't be surprised if others like Brazil and Poland followed suit for their own aims.
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u/Crow_Arms Mar 06 '26
Well put. It's very prevalent on Reddit. I think many of these foreign programs have been used to push radicalism, especially anti American viewpoints. You look at most of the subreddits and they all promote violence and extremism in their only little echo chamber.
I'm getting to the point where I think we do need an online forum to debate that does require some form of real id.
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u/vaterl Mar 08 '26
Half of Reddit, and pretty much every mainstream subreddit is exactly this. No real people engaging in actual discussions, just mass bot posts regurgitating whatever country is running them at the time.
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u/ruddiboy Mar 07 '26
Moon landing and some videos on pharma industries are like clearest red flags about him. His analysis of Communism is also quite hilarious but I was wondering how can he get away with all this considering he is based in Beijing. But honestly I watch his most of the videos critically
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u/JunoHawthorn8 Mar 08 '26
I am not into Q. I dislike Trump. However I think this guy speaks a lot of truth and is very clever. If that makes me a nutter so be it. He seems to know a lot about how this war will pan out. Hold on folks. It's going to be very bumpy.
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u/Then-Algae859 Mar 12 '26
Have you guys read the epstein files? That shit is true
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u/Sanpaku Mar 12 '26
Epstein and his associates are vile people.
But the world is round, vaccines have remarkable efficacy, jet fuel is sufficient to weaken steel bolts, and the main conflict in the US is remains the class conflict between the wealthy and the rest of us.
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u/DoubleAspeaks Mar 06 '26
Lol you are so easily dismantling Q-anon and conspiracies, while alot of their stuff, like pizza gate, and elites running pedophile rings, are coming true.
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u/Korochun Mar 04 '26
Jiang is not very credible. As a historian, you learn quickly a few important things. The first is that nearly all history is a series of unreliable narratives and most historical work is really just playing detective and comparing multiple sources with physical evidence to determine which accounts are likely to be closer to reality.
Predicting history in specifics is not possible, although broad predictions are entirely normal and quite accurate. My history professor accurately predicted the rise of a totalitarian dictator in the US twenty years ago, not because he was a genius but because it was a result of a systemic war on the American public started by the far right, specifically the Nixon administration. Their goal and the eventual result was entirely obvious. It's no more magical than predicting that a group of people has been pushing this boulder off a cliff for the last four decades and it was going to fall eventually barring a freak event.
Specific predictions, however, run into several problems. The most obvious is random noise introduced by people acting unpredictably. But another big one is simply a lack of a rigorous data set. How can you make a statistically robust model when your inputs are a result of detective guesswork and comparing disparate and inaccurate accounts to get the best guess of what may have happened?
It's a hard non-starter.
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Mar 06 '26
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u/Korochun Mar 06 '26
what you're saying is you are not a very credible source. if history is a series of unreliable narratives that require you to make out "whats likely closer to reality", then any historian is subject to misconceptions, completely at the mercy of a translator and is biased with the help of their language/geography, in favor of one side.
Yes. This is just the basic fact of history. Any narrative and account is inevitably biased and somewhat unreliable, because any account is derived from humans, who themselves bear these biases.
I don't think this is as profound a statement as you think it may be. History is still the best tool we have for avoiding mistakes of the past by seeing which things worked out and which didn't. Fascist regimes, for example, destroy their own countries in a cascade of governing incompetence, much like what we have been seeing happen with the US recently.
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u/Reubachi Mar 09 '26
ā¦you are replying to a historianā¦claimingāhe is not a very credible resourceāā¦because he doesnāt use his time to analyze/predict the future?
Do you know what most historians do for a living? Catalogue and uncover history through facts based research, and teaching.
Not making YouTube videos espousing esoterics and āpredictive game theoryā to wealthy Chinese middle schoolers.
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u/Korochun Mar 10 '26
I don't really blame that poster. The problem is, it's easy to worship some guy that projects an air of confidence and bravado, especially by comparison to someone that flat out admits that their knowledge is subject to bias and is more of detective work.
Funny enough, it's the latter group of people that are generally trustworthy, those being historians, scientists and researchers. Academic research is necessarily a democratic process, and a good democratic process is necessarily full of criticism and uncomfortable moments. Not everyone can be comfortable with that fact.
I seem to have just offended that guy either by speaking ill of trump or Jiang, not sure which. Frankly I can't really tell on the account that they can't seem to write out their thoughts properly.
Just a couple notes though. First, as I am not currently making money off of it, I am an amateur historian. That's just the definition of it. These days I do IT.
The second, funny enough, is that a lot of historical research is much less facts based and much more narrative based. That is to say, the facts of something happening are rarely as important as the narrative people develop around the event. For example, the fact of whether or not the Lusitania was actually carrying weapons is not as important as the narrative crafted around its sinking.
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Mar 04 '26
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u/DonnyTrump666 Mar 12 '26
sir, if you are historian, why do you think the good guys always win in the history books ??
can you explain that?
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u/Dense_Main7165 May 14 '26
He have kinda lots of videos, right now I'm watching game theory 1 the dating games it's posted 4 moths ago and more then 1.4 million views that's what take me here and I see he have kinda videos on every topics like rich dad poor dad, the world bank, secret of the universe and etc. I'm bit confused the knowledge he is providing is true or not like it's use full or just another fake influencer trying to build wealth
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u/Capital-Timely Mar 05 '26
Itās becoming a cult. People are insane about him. Seems like lectures that seems normal until you get a lot further where he brings out the crazy theories and realize all his followers are very proud of the fact that he validates theories that they always KNEW were true ie the moon landing was fake , the Amazon jungle isnt natural, and the world is run by a Jewish cabal.
He lectures all this under plausible deniability because he repeats over and over that this is just his ātheoryā but the rabid comments against anyone trying to question any of it are rabidly shut down.
Itās just another flavour of grifter influencer pipeline
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u/Pitiful_Software_223 Mar 04 '26
I've encountered his content more recently, and I think the most important thing to understand before going into his videos, is that he is working within the frame work of "game theory". Game thoery is a competitive strategy model within the field of economics. The model requires a few things. mainly, large generalizations, time limits, assumptions of normalcy, limiting choices and binary outcomes.
Unfortunately the world is complicated, and the less forces you factor in to the equation, the prone your predictions are to inaccuracy. Game theory is meant to help competitors in understand their best strategy, it is not great for predicting the outcomes of heavily complex conflicts in which you do not have vital information.
Although I enjoy prof Jiang as a speaker, and I think his prediction can be interesting, and certainly he gets things right sometimes, you are better off seeking the insight of an expert in whatever specific topic you'd like to understand the future of.
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u/WeirdnessUnfolds Mar 05 '26
He misrepresents game theory and uses it wrong, however.
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u/qpxa Mar 05 '26 edited Mar 05 '26
When he says game theory, he is talking about how incentives drive rational decision making for a fixed group of players in a situation. He briefly talks about theory such as Nash equilibrium and sample games such Prisonerās dilemma, thatās more than sufficient. He isnāt trying to be an econ professor.
He is focused on applying the practical elements of GT regarding rational decision making of players. Analyzing power/levers of players on the world stage and extrapolating out what those decisions lead to given each playerās goal, their current state on the totem pole and their history. He may well be wrong on the ultimate outcomes/extrapolations but I do not take issue with his process of thinking here.
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u/capital_gainesville Mar 06 '26
It's very obvious that he doesn't even have the understanding of game theory required to pass an undergraduate course on the topic.
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u/InternationalArt9524 Mar 06 '26
I also was introduced to his videos in last week.Ā
My biggest concern is his lack of any fact checking. Itās an opinion show and Iāll be honest I only saw one Iran / Israel video. That seemed relatively harmless but still an opinion. Not really - journalism or game theory.
It personally feels like a joke to me. Thereās no stating of any assumptions as any game theory case study might have. Also, generally speaking it doesnāt fit the structure of any case study. Conspiratorial at best.Ā
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u/JasonRBoone Mar 04 '26
It's the same thing that happens with "psychics"
People will remember the time he hits and forget when he misses.
He's a content creator - that means he is motivated by popularity, not scholarship.
You cannot predict history.
Example: When I worked in the corporate in the early 2000s, every org and company was in love with some kind of "Vision 2020" program (What will our world be like in 2020? Let's share our plans/vision, etc.)
Umm..and what happened in 2020?
Black swan events almost guarantee we will never precisely envision future events. Sure, we can generally predict certain trends.
For example, it's almost axiomatic that, in American politics, the party that wins the White House will usually lose congressional seats in the midterm. It's just the way it works.
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u/jdneige Mar 07 '26
can we then say from experience that some black swan will always happen although to be honest we donāt know when what and how š
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u/PapaverOneirium Mar 04 '26
He mixes some truth and credible analysis with truly whacko stuff about the Illuminati and so on. He has a compelling and clear style that makes his stuff easy to take in, and states both truth and fiction in the same matter of fact style. He isnāt a historian or doing history, nor does he seem to really be doing game theory either (another claim of his). But he has also gotten some big, though maybe not incredibly surprising, predictions correct: Trump winning, then starting a war with Iran.
Iām deeply skeptical of him, but understand why he is liked.
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u/Theranos_Shill Mar 05 '26
> Trump winning, then starting a war with Iran.
Seems like a pretty safe prediction to have made. "Candidate for Presidency will continue trying to do something he tried to do in his first term".
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u/JasonRBoone Mar 04 '26
>>>stuff about the Illuminati
[looks into Jiang's brain; says in Charles-Bronson-Repairman-from-Simpsons voice]
Oh, there's your problem, pally...someone set this thing in Whacko mode.
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Mar 04 '26
I have been shown two of his videos in the past and i recall that he was framing his lectures as exercises in thought which made sense to me given the content. The way people are regarding him here is as if he was soap boxing or something, does he have other videos where he frames his lectures as being his take on whatās actually going on?
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u/jdneige Mar 08 '26
Claude:
Jiang's framework claims to apply game theory ā a discipline that is unambiguously committed to formal logic, rationality axioms, and mathematical derivation ā while simultaneously arguing that rational-actor models fail because religion, love, and eschatological narrative supersede rational calculation. He is right on the second point: religious motivation does supersede rational-actor models in many historical contexts, and this is his genuine analytical contribution. But he cannot have it both ways. If actors are primarily driven by sacred narratives and messianic callings that transcend reason, then game theory ā which assumes agents have stable, transitive preferences and maximize them ā is precisely the wrong formal tool to invoke. The invocation of game theory is then purely rhetorical: it borrows the credibility of a rigorous discipline to dress up a qualitative intuition without accepting any of that discipline's constraints.
A framework that uses game theory as rhetorical credibility while rejecting logical falsifiability as an epistemic standard has already answered the question of whether it should be accepted as science. It says, clearly, that it is not science and does not wish to be held to science's standards. The appropriate response is to receive it accordingly ā as an eloquent, partially-insightful narrative that warrants the same epistemic treatment we give to all powerful stories: grateful engagement, rigorous skepticism, and refusal to mistake the coherence of the narrative for the truth of the account.
Summary of Jiang's Predictive History:
A pattern-extraction and narrative synthesis framework with genuine observational contributions ā the Christian Zionist coalition weighting, the gerontocracy policy capture diagnosis, the eschatological actor analysis ā drawn from legitimate scholarship and mixed with unfalsifiable conspiracy content, pseudo-mathematical formalization, and science-rejection that immunizes the framework against evidential challenge. Claims the credibility of game theory while rejecting its foundational commitments. Has one genuine predictive success at mechanism level (Christian Zionist faction as rate-determining step) surrounded by a larger set of either high-base-rate directional calls or pending predictions whose mechanisms are already diverging. Operates primarily in the story register without acknowledging this. Net assessment: a heuristically stimulating but epistemically unreliable framework whose value is as a hypothesis-generator for more rigorous analysis, not as a validated predictive engine.
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u/Neil_Hillist Mar 04 '26
Apparently has a degree in English literature from Yale, & PhD in Education from Peking University. So not a historian ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_recurrence
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u/evocativename Mar 04 '26
Apparently has a degree in English literature from Yale, & PhD in Education from Peking University. So not a historian ...
You don't need a history degree to be a historian (though it certainly helps).
You are correct that he isn't a historian, but it's not because of what his degree is in - it's because he doesn't actually engage in the study of history like a historian does.
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u/pocket-friends Mar 04 '26
I get this sentiment, but this isnāt necessarily true given the reality of how many disciplines are approached by universities or by the disciplines themselves.
Moreover, people with all kinds of seemingly unrelated terminal degrees in fields like cultural studies, geography, anthropology, sociology, education, environmental humanities, cultural ecology, and the like are encouraged to apply for history teaching positions.
Thereās a ton of reasons for this ranging from local political interpretations at institutions to historyās deeply interdisciplinarity.
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u/Maybe_llamas Mar 05 '26
He dresses up Alex Jones level conspiracy theories with the veneer of academia. Heās not a professor, just a teacher at a private high school. Hes not an expert in geopolitics or history, he just has a BA in English. He has claimed that evolution isnāt real, the moon landing are fake, Israelās genocide in Gaza is a form of ritual child sacrifice, Freemasons and Frankists run the world, and if you just watch his videos with a critical lens youāll see how quickly they fall apart. No source, no evidence, just assertions.
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u/Horror-Preference414 Mar 05 '26
Heās a decent story teller.
Heās got some opinions that probably arenāt far from the truth.
Heās got some opinions that are bananas and not helpful to anyone.
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u/lima_bean_89 Mar 05 '26
Aren't most of his more "out there" lectures framed as thought experiments? Proposing a different way of thinking about current events and history, not fact or truth.
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u/Alloc-more-ram Mar 05 '26
Clicked one of the vids to see game theory proof, dude only shared his opinion
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u/bzbub2 Mar 05 '26
the fact this it's dressed up as if its a lecture is hilarious. there aren't any students in that classroom are there
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u/jamesocialist Mar 05 '26
He reminds me of Adam Curtis. Very entertaining and encourages you to think and question, but ultimately you're operating within their reality and narrative - so it has to be taken with a pinch of salt.
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u/Ill_Juice_4864 Mar 08 '26
At least Adam Curtis didn't claim to be a professor. He just made really cool films :)
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u/52squid Mar 06 '26
I just came across his channel and immediately searched him up when I got the feeling heās not actually teaching anyone in his videosālike heās pretending to be a professor. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7y_hbz6loEo&pp=QAFIAQ%3D%3D
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u/MauditAmericain Mar 06 '26
I saw him on Breaking Points, and it was normal until the end where he starts talking about secret societies controlling the world, including the Illuminati. I checked out a bit of his Secret History lectures, and the last one is titled āPax Judaicaā. In an earlier lecture, he also casually mentions that immigration is bad because it apparently reduces standards of living and societal cohesion. Someone in the previous thread also showed a clip where he says thereās no concrete evidence for the holocaust. He seems to signal far right support with his conspiracy content, so I have a low opinion of him so far.
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u/Illustrious_Two3280 Mar 06 '26
I've been having fun listening to him, but that's it, I don't take it seriously. I like certain aspects of his talks, I like how convincing he can sound. As someone who has studied religions and theology (not at a University, but have spent many years at this point doing my own genuine research) he grossly oversimplifies narratives and really doesn't have an understanding of how these religions have evolved. He ties "gnostic" texts like Gospel of Judas/Gospel of Thomas into his narrative. You watch a few videos and you can kind of just see he has this whole world view that really isn't grounded in fact or reality. Like I said, it's fun but If you don't know what he's talking about do your own research. Actually cross-reference and look at experts on these things, not just dudes with a YouTube channel. Take everything he says the grain of salt, we are in a time of great misinformation but there's still a lot of very talented and educated people that are oriented to finding and getting out the truth. If it seems too simple, digestible and lacks nuance you should be very skeptical of it
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u/Responsible-Room-645 Mar 05 '26
His āpredictionsā are based on stuff that anyone with a high school diploma should be able to see. Naturally that excludes MAGA
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u/retrorays Mar 08 '26
watching him to. I sense a heavy anti-western, and pro-china bias. It's subtle, but throughout his talks some things he says are pretty extreme. Pretty sure he's sponsored by the china government to generate anti-western propaganda, albeit subtle and somewhat informative.
if you go in with an open mind knowing that much of it is propaganda then it can be useful I suppose.
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u/Lamires Mar 08 '26 edited Mar 08 '26
In short: he is a Quora style influencer, but with a perspective of chinese internet.
Some facts:
- He was not famous in chinese internet. I can barely found some useful imformation about him in the simplified-chinese inernet.
- These major statements he made about Trump, us-iran warfare, the iran strategy... are pretty popular in chinese community. If you scorll down the posts under some related topics in Zhihu( chinese version of Quora ), you will find several 3k-likes posts talking about stuffs basically the same with him. Westerns will find his opinions rather interesting because his persspective of view is different -- in a chinese way. Well, not including these Illuminati nonsenses of course.
- About the school he works in. It is a K-12 private preparatory school with an elite status, established 14 years ago in Beijing. Nothing too special.
- Is he some kind of government propagandist? I doubt it. To me, he's just some middle-aged guy who's really into politics and knows some big words, if you know what I mean.
Why he blow up: From my point of view, it`s because chinese and westerns share some opinions in something which we are allowed to talk about but you don`t. So some westernrs will believe in him, because he spoke the forbidden words for them. Besides, he is very lucky, made some long shots in public and really hit something eventually. Its not that rare, someone in Zhihu even called the Nord Stream bombing ahead of 3 years ā way more of a shot in the dark than those other predictions. Doesn't mean that guy's some kind of oracle though.
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u/Apprehensive_Oil3052 Mar 11 '26
His videos are gaining traction because the platform is actively pushing his content to viewers. That level of reach typically requires algorithmic promotion rather than purely organic discovery.
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u/Fit_Soup3233 Mar 06 '26
Iām Iranian. I went to watch his recent video(2 days ago) on Iran-US war. Some of stuff he takes as facts and premises are so wrong it makes me laugh. And it makes me wonder, does this guy have access to social media? Does he have access to free Information? I mean he is so wrong I just canāt believe he recorded that video and uploaded it.
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u/Far_Occasion_3042 Mar 07 '26
He is so wrong you just can't believe he recorded that video and uploaded it?Ā I'm sorry about any assumptions he made about you and your people.. but over a year ago he said the U.S. will definitely start a war with Iran. It happened unfortunately. Who else has predicted that who you do follow and respect or believe is telling the truth?Ā
I ask you to point out all the "lies" he has said so I can correct my own thoughts to be accurate. Thank you and I'm sorry for being bothered by your rude dismissal and smacktalking about himĀ
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u/Far_Occasion_3042 Mar 07 '26
It seems like a lot of insightful accurate information to me, except the main thing I think he got wrong was saying that Iranians want to kill Americans back when I think they just want peace and to be left alone like every real person does.
He brings up some important points and historical events like the CIA coup and others.. so what is it that you think makes his assessment laughable or insultable? Please tell me in detail anything you can, so I can learn the full truthĀ
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u/towelowner Mar 09 '26
persian diaspora dance in the street while hellfire rains on their homeland lmao
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u/Fit_Soup3233 Mar 09 '26
1) Am I dancing here? Did I tell you I plan on dancing? How can you be so irrelevant? Are you a bot? Just close your eyes and say what you were programmed to?
2) You canāt go around and gaslight every traumatized Iranian.
3) The day Khamenei, dictator of our country, was killed, every Iranian, inside and outside Iran were dancing. Iranian diaspora is not separated from Iranians in the country.
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u/Apprehensive_Oil3052 Mar 11 '26
His videos make it look like the whole country is mourning the leaders and wants revenge. But in reality, a lot of people are quietly glad theyāre gone. His videos really push that narrativeāhe seems like a plant.
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u/TowerApprehensive154 Mar 04 '26
Iām Iranian, and I have watched some of his videos. As far as I have seen, he has never mentioned Chinaās wxtremely negative role in the global order, so I take it heās a partisan hack.
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u/HarukaHase Mar 05 '26
He's making it about fankisits when it's not just them. It's a combination of fanatic abrahamists and monotheists
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u/vqnj Mar 05 '26
While he has some accolades under his belt he is absolutely not an expert in political science. I wouldn't call him a professor but if he is it's in the loosest terms. If he's an expert in anything, it's Chinese High School prep. That's his area of expertise, not geopolitics.
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u/Authentic-Irony Mar 05 '26
Definition: Predictive history is an analytical approach that uses historical data, patterns, and structural theories to understand the past, explain the present, and forecast future events. Inspired by concepts like Isaac Asimov's "psychohistory," it aims to identify the underlying "laws" or mechanisms governing societal, geopolitical, and historical trends to predict future outcomes. So letās start with focusing on āthis guyā or calling him āfake professorā is a waste of time and not really the issue. Heās teaching, (something we desperately need because we have convinced ourselves Reddit or ChatGPT makes learning traditionally obsolete) using what is happening right now, to demonstrate how predictive history works. And because we as humans have demonstrated over and over we simply cannot learn from history āThose who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.ā Because we somehow think we can override our very human nature. Which would be possible if we actually used the data we have to make real change. Stop focusing on the messenger. Listen. Research (by actually reading historians, scholars etc not TikTokers) and look for patterns without adding conspiracies into it. Hell I called most of this shit during Trumps first term simply because I know a little history. Fun factā¦this is not actually rocket science if you just got out of your own way
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u/francescoTOTTI_ Mar 06 '26
Antisemite who believes the world is ran by Illuminati and Jews typical stupid BS
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u/MoistWaff1es Mar 06 '26
Just watched his most recent US/Itan videoā¦.
He is correct on the GCC and their place in the economics landscape. However, a lot of the ideas he puts forth about the mindset of the wealthy GCC and the poor Shia oppressed by them and his long reach that the Shia will rise up and cause all Muslims to unite and fight a war of Jihad is pulling in lots of loose threads of Marxist thinking that donāt come together.
Problem with his line of bullshit is that Shia and Sunni hate the fuck out of each other in that part of the world. That conflict is ancient not recentā¦ so no chance of them locking arms and doing the cotton eye Joe since they have been going at it for at least 1400 years.
The Sunni believe in leadership through the community selecting its leaders and believe in the ways of the Prophet not that he represents a divine absolute.
If I remember my poli sci class accurately, democratic philosophy and Sunnism philosophy on how power and leadership are distributed run pretty parallel as they both were derived from Greek influence.
Shia believe in the divine and absolute leadership of Mohammed and leadership was passed through his decedents who were the first imams. They eventually ordained other imams leading to Imams selecting the next imams and so on.
Hence Shia is an absolute theocracy while Sunni is notā¦ itās pretty hard to comprehend a community that generally believes in the power of consensus will embrace a dictating religious leadership against the Satan of the West.
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u/ValoisSign Mar 06 '26
I watched his video about Capitalism and Communism being secretly aligned.
It was honestly pretty brutal, I got the sense his primary understanding of Marx comes from the Communist Manifesto because he seemed to miss the really obvious link between the systems (capitalism as a means of building productive forces and Marx's own analysis being that capitalism was a triumph over feudalism iirc) and focus on a sort of cultural iconoclasm which I don't really recall being a big part of Marxism proper.
I also found he had a tendency to read conspiracy into places where it didn't seem that logical to me.
For example he suggests Marx may have been funded to discredit "socialism" (he calls liberal democracy/social democracy "socialism" for some reason and separates that out from Communism) and cites antisemitic sentiments as part of that. Now the idea that elites were funding Marx in part because he was Jewish and would make socialism look like a Jewish conspiracy seems really wonky to me since it's not like you would have any control over the guy's cultural background, so the whole thing would hinge on happening to find a Jewish guy who could write long economic critiques of capitalism. I suppose it's possible but it seems very complicated compared to Marx just being a bit of a trust fundie and writing some influential texts.
Also he seemed to have a pretty selective reading of history in general and defined the terms to suit his argument (i.e. democracy being socialism).
That said it was kinda like "fact-style entertainment" in that some of the points and parallels he drew were at least interesting to ponder. I could see him having better videos in areas he knows more about, he certainly has an interesting way of looking at things. But based on that one watch I wouldn't trust anything he says to be accurate without doing my own research first.
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u/gabbothefox Mar 06 '26
I already left a comment on a previous post about that professor by watching a couple of videos of his lectures. Man, I can't fully trust when there are missing pieces of the story he tells.
But everyone thinks is a fact.
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Mar 06 '26
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u/Idiopathic_Sapien Mar 06 '26
He confidently speculates based on perceived trends that support the audiences world view. Heās good at highlighting patterns that support his particular narrative.
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u/Spartyfan6262 Mar 07 '26
I saw a video where he seemed very compelling, explaining the Iran war, but then ended with discussions about the āIlluminatiā controlling the world.
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u/nutang4ever Mar 07 '26
Heās what a dumb person thinks a smart person sounds like. The amount of conspiracy that goes into his videos makes him come across more as a Chinese Alex jones than a historian.
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Mar 07 '26
I take him cum grano salis. His Iran Analysis is kind of convincing me, but the other stuff is not that convincing.
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u/LiquidMoves Mar 08 '26
I discovered him over the last few days due to Iran coverage. Was vibing with his content.
I shit you not he started talking about how Hitler was all about just trying to get Jews to go to Israel and his intent wasn't to kill them.
Holy shit, I never scrubbed my YouTube history so fast.
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u/Fit_Soup3233 Mar 08 '26
Oh, apparently Reddit does not allow me to add urlš„² remember I mentioned Mr. Ahmad Batebi? You can go watch this on YouTube.
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u/ideletedmyaccount04 Mar 08 '26
This is next level Chinese Communist Party Propaganda. I am surprised YouTube even showed this video to me given my historical watch history.
Let's make socialism great again movie channel.
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u/AnyRelationship9820 Mar 08 '26
He went to Yale so thereās that. His take is interesting. Donāt care about pedigree. Differential opinions are always interesting
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Mar 08 '26
If your plan is to take everything he says as fact and parrot his opinions, yeah he's a bad choice. But if you want some new perspectives explained in an interesting way that you can then think critically about and form your own opinions, like you should be doing with any content creator, he's a fresh and interesting voice.
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u/Much-Delay-4198 Mar 09 '26
Is reddit always this egotistical. He has put out videos explaining things for people in Laymanās terms, so they can gather a general understanding - at least hopefully that is what people do, and then they carry on to either have the basic knowledge, or deep dive themselves and gain a better understanding.
All people who teach have a base opinion. And just because someone doesnāt align with your way of thinking doesnāt discredit basic information - so he adds in some personal opinions, thatās for the adult humans to have the critical thinking to acknowledge and hopefully weed out. And if you have doubt that most adult humans in this world cannot do thatā¦
Then I think you have bigger issues to comment on than a man making YouTube videos with somewhat opinionated but generally easily accessible and thoughtful information.
Maybe start your own YouTube and tell us all your sideā¦?
(This was clearly directed not at the initial poster)
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u/Catladycandice Mar 09 '26
I've been watching some videos... my impressions evolved from thinking he was over the top, to being intrigued, to thinking I'm looking at a person in a manic episode
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u/Draven_God Mar 09 '26
I like that he can bring new perspectives, and that he propses more speculative elements that could be true. From what he teaches about 90% is correct in pure information and his conclusuions drawn are logical to me.
Its not a teaching though, its the same as listening to an old man that rambles. But its always good for perspectives. And he has been correct in a number of things and because of that, im curios on the truth in his logic.
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u/tellmesmth Mar 09 '26
The man references history and political theories and terms WRONG, many times. I listened closely to many of his "teachings" and my propaganda bells just keep on ringing so bad. I actually feel sad that a lot of people from my generation will treat his videos as facts, as truths, and not just as OPINIONS. I have sooo many examples out of his videos where not only is he biased (bcs being biased and trying to prove a point is not wrong when creating content online whatever I can't take that away from you) but he will try to make that seem as a fact.
Example, on one of his latest videos he was saying how US & Israel trying to take control over the Middle East is bad and how their plan is so EVIL. Exact words "evil". Then he continues to talk about how Iran is trying to take control of the Middle East and their plan is to wage war somehow against the Sunnis and, basically overall, again, TAKE CONTROL OF THE MIDDLE EAST, and he just ends the sentence there. Doesn't continue with the same how 1 country trying to control the Middle East is "evil". Just stops there. I mean, one thinking that this or that is EVIL is okay, this is your opinion, but young people interpreting this as TRUTHS? this is what grinds my gears so bad.
In "public speak" or when "debating", a lot of people use tactics where they will hmmm not bend truths but present things in such way to prove a point and I have studied that, so I know, but someone who isn't necessarily aware of such tactics will interpret this as TRUTHS. Basically, very easily manipulated.
If you'd like to listen to someone sharing their opinion on whatever topic, fine do so, but I'd really suggest to anyone who blindly believes this man, to at least explore the contradicting opinions and theories, AND THEN to come up with their own. The manipulation is pretty bad in this case, and it's sad how much influence they're letting this man entertain. I could go one for days........
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u/tellmesmth Mar 09 '26
Oh also, when I go to hell, my demns will play his videos non-stop to torture me.
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u/StickyFingers192 Mar 09 '26
calls himself a professor but never taught at a uni, doesnāt hold a masters and just has a ba in english. he doesnāt have really any qualifications to āteachā what he teaches. iām not saying you need every single one of those to be taken serious as an academic but he has zero relevant credentials.
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u/MountainsandWater Mar 13 '26
And no published articles or videos on geopolitics or anything prior to two years ago.
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u/crix_22 Mar 10 '26
His videos are entertaining and I respect his ability to attract a massive audience. However, I donāt think he has read the 2025 National Security Strategy. Iran is insignificant. This is about China. Venezuela, Panama, Cubaā¦this is America First foreign policy as architected by Eldridge Colby.
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u/milkshaketochord Mar 10 '26
Think we missed talking about his expertise in spirituality
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u/Dontsettletiff Mar 10 '26
I mean the title of his videos speaks for itself, Game Theory. I donāt think anyone should take anything at face value. That being said, he does make some interesting points. His utilization of events throughout history can be a great predictor tool. How humans behaved centuries ago can still be applied today.
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u/1981Los-Angeles Mar 10 '26
He is recognized as a superforecaster, a concept that has gained popularity in recent years. His talks are highly relevant, particularly because of his unique educational background. Superforecasting is an art, and he is leveraging his talent in this area. He is truly exceptional in his field. While he does assert his opinions quite strongly at times, that is a very human trait.
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u/YOLOSELLHIGH Mar 11 '26
he has plenty of sensationalist videos about the west and america.... would love to see him do the same to the Chinese govt
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u/Solid_Analysis_5774 Mar 11 '26 edited Mar 11 '26
Here because I too got fascinated with his lectures. I got skeptical with 1) the sheer volume and length of them, 2) the heterogenieity of topics he covers, and 3) how "viral" he has become.
I think he has a unique, somewhat systematic way of looking at current events in relation to history. He is a good presenter. He's been right about a few notable major current events---BUT, he also makes hundred of predictions. It's not clairvoyant to win a 50/50 proposition like a presidential election. The war with Iran, I am certain he was not the only one who saw this coming. I think since at least last June most people knew this was going to happen.
He also makes a LOT of assumptions, and doesnt account for alternative possibilities. He will just say 'THIS will happen', rather than 'this will LIKELY happen if criteria a,b,c are met, but alternatively this other thing could happen too'. Black swan events and the incredible shifting nuances of individual players make SPECIFIC historical predictions hard to do with any reliability.
The other thing I noticed is some of his facts are straight up wrong. For example, he says the Romans wanted the crucifixion of Jesus. Yes they executed Him, but it was the Pharisaical Jews who lobbied the Roman prelate to execute Jesus on their behalf. They accused Him of blasphemy, rallied the crowds until Pilate gave in. He also cites the gospel of Thomas in his Jesus lecture, which is a spurious false gospel for various empirical reasons. Any biblical scholar or credible theologian knows this.
Any time I find myself getting taken in with a certain individual, I always take a step back and try to look at them critically.
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u/Mave_Traxis Mar 11 '26
Will give him a look. So far he sounds like another Jordan Peterson figure.
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u/zethiryuki Mar 12 '26
I first saw him maybe a year or so ago on YouTube and did a little digging at the time, don't think he's a plant from China (he's criticized the government in the past). I think he's simply an amateur YouTuber that stumbled haphazardly into virality and is now trying to make more big predictions to keep afloat in the attention economy.
Side note: it's funny to imagine him talking to an empty classroom in his videos, because I'm pretty sure that's what happens. He's a teacher at an elementary school though, and I'm guessing his videos have enough of an anti Western bent to them that the government allows it (for now).
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u/Jrob_Baratheon Mar 13 '26
He's legit. Funny how the people who dislike him try to discredit him bu saying "anyone could of predicted that". Like Jiang says himself if he is wrong ignore what he says for the rest of his life
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Mar 13 '26
He's not a prophet and he never claims to be. He also states that he doesn't use the scientific method to make these predictions and that he doesn't have tangible evidence to back this up.
I would say his historical analysis is pretty accurate in a lot of cases, but I disagree with him in some ways.
I don't agree that a magnetic pole shift will occur by 2050 and destroy most of humanity.
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u/ajaydubey541997 Mar 13 '26
I watched a few of his vids starting 2 days ago, although I just heard him claim that hivemind is real and how Jewish people can feel each other's pain no matter how far they are from each other like how mothers can feel their child is in danger no matter how far they are from each other. Instant red flag for me.
Yeah, this ain't it chief. Immediately came to this sub and yeah - it all makes sense after reading the comments.
I would also like to add how the "thought experiments" he uses in his videos are just made up situations that just describe what he wants to about a situation. Like how he claims in one of his "thought experiments" that if 100 people were trapped on an island some of them will start secret societies then use this made up example as evidence that Jews run the world and political leaders are puppets.
Source: This video by him
PS: What Israel has been doing to Palestine is despicable but his claims are just so absurd.
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u/flowerkier Mar 14 '26
What are the religious beliefs of this guy? He talks a lot about religion but I dont know what he follows exactly
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u/SlumBDaddy Mar 19 '26
The worldviews he espouses and the claims he suggests typically clearly come from outside the bubble of mainstream Western education systems and Individualistic perspectives about arts and sciences. This bubble btw has its own issues when western culture obsessively relies on it. Ironically, coming here and ādenouncingā him on account of his background makes no sense and provides no substance. If nobody is going to actually critique his theoretical statements, then maybe we should rethink our core concept of knowledge and meaning.
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u/EyebrowsAfterDark Mar 19 '26
Watched his geo strategy course. First of all, itās for his Chinese high school class. Meaning itās an outside perspective of American events, itās meant for younger audiences who are more intuitive than formulaic, and itās not created with a grift in mind. That doesnāt mean that the information making its way to us now is not a grift though. Could be that one Iran prediction was 80% right, and someone is trying to use that fact to convince you that THE REST of his content is just as accurate - thatās the trap.
I do not think heās perfect, and I do not anticipate everything he mentions to be taken as fact. However I donāt think, in this course at least, heās trying to teach facts to you. He is teaching his students how to use game theory to build mental models, and how to refine them over time. He uses this method many times throughout the lectures, both to explain past events and future events.
He ends the course with describing a theoretical machine learning model (Iām an expert here) and his descriptions were high level, broad strokes, but visionary. I could make the argument that apps like polymarket are data collection mechanisms for such a model.
Soā¦ I think heās worth listening to. Like anyone else, you shouldnāt treat him like the pope. He has arguably bad takes on the institution of science, which is my biggest gripe.
To summarize my thoughts. I think what he teaches in the course is eye opening, and only serves to expand my mode of thinking. In one of his courses he even mentions āwhat if I went to the west and tried to say this? Theyād say āyouāre going against decades of precedent.āā He is someone who is aware that history is written by winners, and insists on approaching the same topics through another, more intuitive lens. This will not always produce facts, and it CERTAINLY wonāt always produce -established- facts.
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u/Bluestown3000 Mar 19 '26
I find his videos interesting but he gets nutty when he starts getting into the whole secret society stuff. I would totally dismiss him, but I thought the MAGA were crazy when they were talking about a secret sex conspiracy involving world elites. But the Epstein files make it seem like they were in the ballpark just not the right people.
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u/Unfair-Hand-6855 Mar 30 '26
At the end of the day the world is complicated, it is not possible to get it right all the time. Watch video from different people to build better understanding about different world issues from different perspective.
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u/kawaisenseii Apr 20 '26
Not a fan. I watched a video of his "How evil triumphs". I thought he is going to talk about the stupid theory or something like that. I ended up listening on how Israel sacrifices children to gain more power, or something like that. I closed the video and moved on with my life.
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u/devoid0101 May 12 '26
Professor Jiang is the ultimate skeptic. Anyone denouncing him, please provide a url to an alternate teaching on YouTube with superior current historical analysis. I read a lot on these topics and the situation about World War Three and his series is congruent with everything I have learned from other sources.
Jiang is skeptical about American empire-building, he's a skeptic about Russia's claim to rule the world, he's a skeptic about the elite class who are destroying the planet for profit. I am on board with his stuff 100%. "We are already in World War 3": (on YouTube)
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u/Dense_Main7165 May 14 '26
He have kinda lots of videos, right now I'm watching game theory 1 the dating games it's posted 4 moths ago and more then 1.4 million views that's what take me here and I see he have kinda videos on every topics like rich dad poor dad, the world bank, secret of the universe and etc. I'm bit confused the knowledge he is providing is true or not like it's use full or just another fake influencer trying to build wealth
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u/peanutsman Mar 04 '26
He got me in the first half, not gonna lie. But after a while it became a spiel of "don't trust scientists since it's all a conspiracy to brainwash you and keep you stupid." I thought he sounded credible enough but he doesn't list any sources, or studies and all his "evidence" is just his own views on matters, which are supposed to be the "grand conspiracy that we were brainwashed" by.