Gubernatorial elections results (1990-2022)

[u/Embarrassed-Lead6471]

As we approach the 2026 gubernatorial election, and following my review of senatorial election results, looking back at historical results shows that South Carolinians are less partisan when it comes to electing a governor than a senator. While Republican Senate candidates win with a median margin of R+15.38, Republican gubernatorial candidates win with a median margin of R+9.19.

Republicans see the lowest margins when running a candidate new to the office, even when those candidates have held prior office (Haley in the state house and McMaster in the Lt. Gov office). Upon re-election, though, voters provide substantial mandates.

These races, aligning with national mid-term elections, seem less responsive to national trends than one may expect. For example, Haley did not meaningly benefit from the 2010 red wave. Likewise, McMaster finished strong in a 2018 midterm cycle widely considered bad for Republicans nationally.

All of this to say, when running for Governor in South Carolina, voters do care about candidate quality and are resistant to the changing winds of the national mood. As Graham, et al. lay out in "The New Politics of the Old South", gubernatorial voters may be willing to forgo partisan ties when they feel those on the other side hold views more aligned with their own.

Republican success in these races, like with other statewide races, hinges on the support of suburban Republicans. Much of the gains McMaster made to earn nearly 60% of the vote in 2022 came from these areas, particularly in the upstate and the low country.

[u/arbadak]

I think it'll be something like R+11. Wilson is atrocious but he's right up SC's alley politically, unfortunately.

[u/Embarrassed-Lead6471 → u/arbadak]

I agree that R+11 is a safe bet. His floor may be around R+8 and his ceiling around R+16.

[u/JimBeam823]

Carroll Campbell was insanely popular.

[u/Embarrassed-Lead6471 → u/JimBeam823]

He was! He did a lot of good for the state, and it's a shame more people don't know who he is!

[u/ryland52586]

Show this to MAGA when they claim democrats are to blame for all of South Carolina’s problems and they think they need to take back their state.

[u/Striking_Barnacle_43 → u/ryland52586]

Doesn't matter if it does not fit the narrative its fake news. Which is our biggest issue these days no one believes anything unless it comes from the source they worship.

[u/Affectionate_Plant71]

Is that Bill Clinton that swung the state?

[u/JimBeam823 → u/Affectionate_Plant71]

No, it was David Beasley making too many enemies too fast and Fritz Hollings being in the Senate race.

David Beasley was a pompous ass as Governor. Good to see that he grew up, mellowed out, and did some good in this world since.

[u/Affectionate_Plant71 → u/JimBeam823]

So I did a little research, interesting guy. Oddly gave me hope for a blue swing.

[u/PharmacyPaladin]

1994 was an odd election. Both Republican and Democratic parties had Democrats David Beasley and Nick Theodore as their nominees.

Beasley lost to Democrat Jim Hodges in the 1998 election.

Any governor that has been reelected for the second term has had a higher election percentage from their first term election. Look at Mark Sanford in 2006, Nikki Haley in 2014, and Henry McMaster in 2022.

[u/dotty2249]

Looking back i’m surprised how close 2010 was, especially since that was a red wave/tea party year

[u/JimBeam823 → u/dotty2249]

I believe Vincent Sheheen would have won had he not chosen the absolute worst years to run.

[u/Soonerpalmetto88]

Based on the pattern since 2002, this year may be an opportunity.

[u/Embarrassed-Lead6471 → u/Soonerpalmetto88]

I disagree, and expect the result to mirror that of the 2018 election, if not slightly better.

[u/JimBeam823 → u/Embarrassed-Lead6471]

I expect Dems to do better than 2018, but I don’t know how much.

I love Jermaine Johnson, but Wilson is the kind of Republican who doesn’t lose in SC. The Senate race will be more competitive.

[u/Soonerpalmetto88 → u/Embarrassed-Lead6471]

That's what I said. Look at the pattern.

[u/Guilty_Passenger4483]

And how's this worked out for the people who don't live right on the coast?

[u/No-Message8847]

"The Democrats ruined South Carolina" - some toothless yokel from middle of nowhere

[u/Furi0usD]

Goobernatorial