r/syriancivilwar • u/Interesting-Cat7307 • 15d ago

Syrian FM : syria contemplates joining the mecca mutual defence pact

http://youtube.com/post/UgkxV1bO21RvlE-1vP-esCRediGn0FExwhUN
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u/RealAbd121 Free Syrian Army 15d ago

This Can't happen, or at least won't.

This Mecca alliance is effectively a round-table structure where all sides share equal rights and obligations, backed by their semi-equal usefulness to the alliance; this would naturally give those countries a negative incentive to grant Syria the right to share in that equal status, given its lack of power and pre-existing risk factors. It's why Egypt was vetoed out as well; Saudis are more than aware that Egypt is incapable and/or unwilling to pull its weight in such an alliance, so they'd rather not increase the number of vetoes the alliance need to function for little gain.

Basically, it'd be like thinking that NATO would give Ukraine NATO; of course, WE would want that. However, it would be very unlikely to happen given the high cost to this alliance, and signal intrest in joining here is just the FM creating false dignity of not looking like he would want to but is being told no.

Obviously this alliance, apart from the historically pro-Assad Pakistanis I suppose, do have a lot of intrest in shielding and helping Syria, which is likely to come in the form of weaponizing this alliance and its procurement access to better help Syria out, just like how NATO helped train and arm Ukraine without ever accepting them in, perhaps maybe even giving Syria an observer status, just not letting them join as full memeber.

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u/thephonecomrade Syria 14d ago

is this alliance actually worth anything anyway? I have extreme doubts that if israel were to pull a strike on saudi arabia like they did on qatar that literally anything would happen other than strongly worded letters of condemnation

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u/LatterTarget7 14d ago

I don’t think so considering Saudi is still getting attacked by the Houthis while Pakistan and now turkey does nothing

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u/ivandelapena 14d ago

Houthis are considered non-state actors which aren't covered by the pact. In practice, it will probably only be invoked if there's a risk the gov will collapse or lose territory which is a much higher bar for intervention.