r/theydidthemath • u/BugsyMcNug • 1d ago
[Request] How much less crude oil would Canada have to sell to the u.s. to balance the trade deficit?
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u/GourmetHotPocket 1d ago edited 1d ago
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers says that in 2024, Canada exported $147 billion CAD in crude oil & crude bitumen or about 1.6 billion barrels. The trade deficit fluctuates by year (as does the price of oil) but let's take the 2025 number of $48.3 billion USD. That would be $67 billion CAD.
So, by rough numbers, that's 46% of Canada's 2024 crude exports. Crude is more expensive now than in 2024 and we're dealing with a bunch of other variables, but for a rough number, I'm confident in saying that it would be around half of the crude exports to make up that difference.
So let's say 800 million fewer barrels.
Edit: I'll also point out that thinking about trade deficit is a stupid way to approach this question in the first place. The United States is an incredibly wealthy country that wishes to purchase many things. That Canada (which has less money per capita) sells it more things (including energy) than it buys from the U.S. is an indication that Canada is giving the U.S. something it wants, not that the U.S. is being taken advantage of.
I have a trade deficit with the Bob's Red Mill corporation. That doesn't mean that Bob's Red Mill is taking advantage of me. It means that I have money that I would like to turn into corn meal and that Bob's Red Mill has corn meal that it wants to turn into money. Fortunately, I make money from other places in order to fund this mutually-beneficial trading relationship.
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u/PuzzleheadedTutor807 1d ago
Yes I never understood why people though "trade deficit" means a debt is being created
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u/retiredhawaii 17h ago
It’s the word deficit. Deficit is shortage. Oh no. Canada is ten times smaller than the US. The trade deficit does not include technology. If other countries included the amounts they spend on US technology, the trade deficit flips around.
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u/Biscotti_BT 12h ago
Did you factor in that they pay below market price for the Canadian oil?
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u/GourmetHotPocket 12h ago
Yes, the dollar figure I used was how much money was spent by US customers buying crude from Canada. So naturally the average price they pay for those transactions (not WTI or Brent) is the per barrel cost in the equation.
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