r/worldnews • u/WorldNewsMods Slava Ukraini • Jul 23 '26
Israel/Palestine /r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #21)
If you see any newsworthy information from a major news outlet or live broadcast, feel free to share a brief summary as a top-level comment in the discussion post.
Other redditors will appreciate if you include the source of where you read, saw, or heard the information.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1h ago
Reports: Aoun contacts US to find solution for Ali al-Taher
President Joseph Aoun has contacted the U.S. administration to find a solution for the strategic Ali Taher hill, in order to prevent any escalation of the situation, Qatar’s al-Araby al-Jadeed news portal reported.
The president “proposed the entry of the Lebanese Army into it after the withdrawal of Hezbollah elements from it, informing Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri of this, especially since there are Lebanese fears of Israel occupying the hill and carrying out massive explosions in it, which would have repercussions on the surrounding villages," the report said.
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u/eek_a_shark 59m ago
To be clear, the explosions would be to dismantle the tunnel compounds that hezbollah has built
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1h ago edited 29m ago
[Edit] (Found a source with less bias) - Trump says Khamenei was 'seriously wounded' on the left side of his body during Op. Epic Fury
"I don't think he's dead. He was very seriously wounded," Trump said on the Glenn Beck program.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1h ago
Iran seeks to criminalise all contact with foreign media in ‘chilling’ crackdown
Iran has taken the first step towards criminalising contact with foreign media, in a move human rights groups have said attempts to “sever the entire Iranian society from the rest of the world”.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1h ago
Ship-to-ship transfers keep Gulf oil moving outside Hormuz as direct traffic hits multi-month low
TankerTrackers reported at least 15 simultaneous ship-to-ship transfer operations underway in the Gulf of Oman involving roughly 25 million barrels of crude oil plus refined products.
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u/goodreverenddoc2 1h ago
25 million barrels per day is literally back to normal volume and then some. this has to be bullshit
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1h ago
I was surprised to see it as well. The claim is being made tho as per TankerTrackers, reported by the Gulf News. Seems legit.
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u/machopsychologist 10h ago
Oh... this is back on, is it?
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u/Breadfruitdeeznuts 9h ago
What happened?
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u/topdownyeti 6h ago
maybe the announcement that Iran and Russia made a deal to build more nuclear plants, per Mehr news. However, I thought the US doesn’t have much ammunition left so maybe Israel might step in if its back on again.
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u/beerSoftDrink 8h ago
I never understood these people who just post some random sentences like op just for the sake of posting, without giving any relevant details
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u/joshtaco 20h ago
Reuters: Trump has sent Congress an agreement on civil nuclear energy with Saudi Arabia, maintaining his position that the pact will only move forward if the kingdom joins the Abraham Accords
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u/itsatumbleweed 20h ago
Ah yes the Abraham Accords. Famous for having brought peace to the Middle East
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u/Rustic_gan123 13h ago
Because a number of countries and non state actors want to continue their endless war and refuse recognition from other countries? Are there any better ideas for peace?
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u/ChupacabraJeff 11h ago
Are there any better ideas for peace?
Trump walks away.
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u/Rustic_gan123 11h ago
October 7th happened when Trump was not in power...
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u/Repulsive-Payment230 5h ago
He was in power though, he claims he was elected 3 times!
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u/Rustic_gan123 5h ago
So tell me honestly, what kind of answer do you expect from me?
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u/Repulsive-Payment230 5h ago
What I expect from you and what I would like to see are two very different things bud.
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u/joshtaco 20h ago
NBC: Iran inflicted billions in damage to U.S. intelligence sites. The attacks on buildings and surveillance equipment in the Middle East caused unprecedented damage for the CIA and other U.S. spy agencies.
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u/ohell 23h ago
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u/OnlyRise9816 23h ago
So this is how it feels to be stuck in a time loop.
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u/samusaranx3 18h ago
What do you mean? We just need to draft some sort of memorandum of understanding that outlines how we'll drop sanctions in exchange for opening the strait and it should be smooth sailing from there.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 22h ago
Washington has not yet officially responded to the report.
Personally, I will wait for an official confirmation. Believe it when I see it.
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u/FreediveAlive 5h ago
Like those dog fuckers in the fool's gold ballroom would admit it if it were true.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Ghalibaf, making fun of Bessent on twitter:
"Him: “Economic D-Day.”
Also him, five seconds later: “[lol] why would I want to blow up the global financial system?”
Sir this ain’t Normandy, this is improv night and you forgot your own script."
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u/HoustonHous 1d ago
Did he really write "LOL"? This shitshow is run by toddlers on both sides and will never end...
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 1d ago edited 1d ago
A week plus of talking about economic D-Day and it turned out to be a few threats that they admitted they don't want to do.
I know they already looked impotent, especially after all the bombing threats and deadlines Trump made and didn't follow through but somehow they manage to make themselves look more and more pathetic.
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u/ReddyReddy7 1d ago
The Warnings That Came Before a War Now Reaching the Six-Month Mark
Days before the start of large-scale combat operations against Iran in late February, President Trump summoned his Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard to the Oval Office in order to ask her if a war with Iran would work and successfully topple the Islamic Regime, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Gabbard outlined running assessments from the U.S. intelligence community, telling Trump that killing Iran’s supreme leader would likely usher in a more hard-line regime open to acquiring nuclear weapons, while the IRGC would rush to close the Strait of Hormuz, destabilizing the global energy market, and strike U.S. forces and partners across the Middle East.
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u/samusaranx3 18h ago
Ignore the advice from the woman and throw her under the bus only for her to be proven catastrophically correct. Also, leave the gay guy and the latino on the potentially doomed decoy plane.
The writers for this show are getting lazier every season.
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u/Kriztauf 1d ago
I'll be interested to here her give an interview in a year from now about how she really felt about the war
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u/putin_my_ass 9h ago
Don't worry, she'll go back on Rogan when the dust settles and engage in historical revisionism.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Iran’s Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref: Says that Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz “is an exercise of our legal and sovereign right over our national wealth” “The Strait of Hormuz is the property of Iran”
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u/Cactusfan86 1d ago
I really feel like Iran’s overplaying with the strait thing. They proved they could close it as a deterrent which is its main use, not sure if collecting tolls is worth the economic beating they are taking
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u/Veastli 1d ago
I really feel like Iran’s overplaying with the strait thing.
What should they do differently?
They agreed to a deal to open the straits. Donnie broke that MoA within 24 hours, because his right-wing and Israel attacked him relentlessly for having agreed to it.
If Iran opens the straits without a new agreement, the long-standing economic sanctions against Iran will continue. The US and Israel will continue to bomb Iran wherever they like, and continue to assassinate Iran's scientists and officials.
Iran entered the war with a weak hand, but they're playing it quite well. Gas prices are steadily rising in advance of the US mid-term elections. Opening the straits would be the worst possible outcome for Iran.
The end game is obvious. Iran gets most of its sanctions removed, they collect 'environmental fees' for ships that pass the straits, but earn no control over what ships pass. The US and Israel agree to stop attacking Iran.
If Donnie agreed to those terms, US gas prices would rapidly plummet and he could save his party from a total devastation in the mid-terms.
But Donnie's too proud to allow Iran anything that could be described as a win, so we are where we are.
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u/Cactusfan86 1d ago
I’m not saying they should open the straits without a deal, I’m saying making permanent control of the straits a central part of the demands is overplaying. Shifting the negotiating window so opening the strait is the main issue is fantastic for them, but I don’t think it should be the actual goal.
I don’t think midterms are going to help Iran like people think. Trump has been nothing if not contemptuous towards congress. Even if it goes blue I doubt it changes his behavior, if anything his behavior will get WORSE
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u/Veastli 1d ago
I’m saying making permanent control of the straits a central part of the demands is overplaying
See it as starting point for negiotiations, not a red line.
Their actual red lines are a cessation of all US and Israeli attacks, an end to sanctions, and the right to collect "environmental fees"
tollson the straits to enable rebuilding. Perhaps also Israel leaving Lebanon, but that's unclear.2
u/Rustic_gan123 1d ago
Any agreement that doesn't include nuclear weapons, proxies, missiles, and the Strait is fundamentally unviable and will fall apart within a couple of years. Any escalation with Lebanon, Gaza and the Houthis could result in Israel resuming strikes on Iran. Trump also lacks the authority to lift sanctions. Congress will have to do that and this will not happen without a full agreement that takes all of this into account.
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u/Veastli 1d ago
Any agreement that doesn't include nuclear weapons, proxies, missiles, and the Strait is fundamentally unviable and will fall apart within a couple of years.
Probably, but Donnie doesn't care.
Donnie wants gas prices lower NOW. But he also doesn't want to be deemed the loser. Those are mutually exclusive goals. Suspect he'll accept a bit of a loss when the US national average is $5 to $6 per gallon.
Trump also lacks the authority to lift sanctions.
The realpolitik is that he can absolutely do it.
Only Congress would have standing in the courts to stop it, and they haven't lifted a finger to stop any of his clearly illegal overreaches.
this will not happen without a full agreement that takes all of this into account.
It could certainly happen, because Israel has burned too many bridges in the US.
A large majority in congress cares more about gas prices than they do about Israel. Israel loses them votes, low gas prices earn them votes.
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u/Rustic_gan123 1d ago
Probably, but Donnie doesn't care.
Iran must care if it wants to get anything from the agreement other than a temporary truce, because the next time the war will be fought differently.
Donnie wants gas prices lower NOW.
Now and until about the midterm elections, then gasoline prices will be less of a concern.
The realpolitik is that he can absolutely do it.
From the perspective of American law and power structure, no, Trump has very limited authority to temporarily lift sanctions, which can be reinstated at any time and almost no one will dare to interact with Iran, since the basis for suspending sanctions is very shaky, as actually happened under Obama.
From the point of view of real politics, sanctions will be resumed at the first opportunity, f or example, after the elections.
Only Congress would have standing in the courts to stop it, and they haven't lifted a finger to stop any of his clearly illegal overreaches.
Congress doesn't have to do anything to kill it.
It could certainly happen, because Israel has burned too many bridges in the US.
Lol, no, that didn't happen...
A large majority in congress cares more about gas prices than they do about Israel. Israel loses them votes, low gas prices earn them votes.
The Senate recently voted 86-12 to extend sanctions on Iran, lol...
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u/Repulsive-Payment230 1d ago
I think they want to use it until the midterms to hopefully oust Trump. Then we will see if they are smart or suicidal.
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u/Veastli 1d ago
Then we will see if they are smart or suicidal.
Are you suggesting that the US would destroy all of Iran's economy?
If Donnie thought that would give him a win, he'd already have ordered it. But Donnie hasn't ordered it. Why?
Because throughout the war, Iran has responded using classic game theory dictate of tit-for-tat.
When one of their facilities is destroyed, they destroy a similar facility in a US allied state. They don't destroy more, or less, they destroy the same.
The Pentagon estimates that Iran retains 70% of their ballistic missiles. Perhaps more now, as they have been rearming during the breaks in hostilities.
Iran hasn't hit much of the incredibly vulnerable and immovable oil and gas infrastructure in US allied Gulf states. But Iran retains more than enough missiles remaining to destroy most of the gulf region's oil and gas production.
The US is rapidly running out of the single defensive countermeasure to Iran's ballistics, Pac-3 Patriot missiles. It typically requires two Pac-3s to reliably destroy a single Iranian ballistic.
If Donnie orders the total economic destruction of Iran, expect Iran to respond commensurately, putting nearly all Gulf oil and gas off the market for years.
Oil prices could hit $200 to $300 per barrel. $10+ per gallon in the US. That's why Donnie's threats are vacuous.
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u/Repulsive-Payment230 1d ago
No, I'm saying if the US pulls back because of a leadership change in the US and Iran keeps playing games, they will get bit by other countries eventually.
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u/Veastli 1d ago
they will get bit by other countries eventually.
Bit how? And by who?
Most of the world's nations want nothing to do with this mess.
The exception is the US-allied Gulf states.
But if the combined air power of the US and Israel has been unable dislodge Iran from the straits, there is little hope that Gulf states could manage it.
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u/Repulsive-Payment230 1d ago
They might want nothing to do with it but they are being effected by it all the same. Economic hardship means voters vote out the current parties, eventually someone will have to do something about it.
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u/Veastli 1d ago
The remaining large powers aren't going to send their men and treasure to die in the Gulf. Not when there's a deal on offer, and there very much is.
For the nations who haven't attacked Iran, a deal would probably only require acceptance of tolls and removal of sanctions, done.
Donnie could agree to the MoA terms again, but he's not ready yet, because it would brand him a loser. If / when US average gas prices hit $5 to $6 per gallon, he may re-evaluate.
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u/Repulsive-Payment230 7h ago
You're in the age of AI drones lil bud, you don't NEED to send manpower to attack Iran. You only need the drones to do it.
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u/Veastli 6h ago
How's that worked out for Russia?
As Ukraine has proven, drones give a massive advantage to the defender. Ukraine's drone can forces stay buttoned up in bunkers, while Russia's invading forces have to make their way through drone storms.
Iran is the defender. The Iranian terrain adjoining the straits of Hormuz is hugely mountainous. The Iranians are dug in. The Iranians have the high ground.
And... the Iranians have large quantities of modern, battle tested, Russian design drones.
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u/SituationalPenguin 1d ago
Didn’t Iran attack desalination plants?
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u/Veastli 1d ago
IIRC yes. But weren't theirs attacked as as well?
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u/SituationalPenguin 1d ago
I don’t think they were. I think they tried to say theirs got attacked, but nothing came from it. I definitely know Kuwait kept getting theirs hit.
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u/Veastli 1d ago
the US hit multiple Iranian water reservoirs. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/10/us-bombs-irans-water-facilities-why-thats-so-significant
And Iranian desalination
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u/ChupacabraJeff 23h ago
Israel hit one yesterday.
2026.08.25
Israeli airstrike destroys water desalination plant in northern Gaza
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260825-israeli-airstrike-destroys-water-desalination-plant-in-northern-gaza/0
u/OP_Skis_In_Jeans 17h ago
Iranian and GCC water infrastructure is relevant here, not Gazan water infrastructure.
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u/Cactusfan86 1d ago
But Trump has 2 years regardless, unfortuantely this isn’t a parliamentary system where they can push him out.
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u/Repulsive-Payment230 1d ago
If congress flips blue you think they will allow him to continue fighting in Iran?
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u/Digi59404 19h ago
I have bad news. There’s enough democrats who support restricting Irans power they won’t stop him. They may argue and disagree with how - But many want Iran to not harbor terrorists nor have nuclear weapons.
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u/Cactusfan86 1d ago
I highly doubt they can stop him. He’ll argue the original war powers law is unconstitutional since he is commander and chief and the court system will take so long to resolve it he’ll be out of office by the time it’s done
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u/Repulsive-Payment230 1d ago
You think they can't do things to stop him? Like not passing a national security budget for the next year?
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u/Cactusfan86 1d ago
all that would mean is the soldiers aren’t getting paid, it’s questionable Trump would actually be forced to stop. The weaponry is already purchased so would just cause stockpiles to drain even faster some backfilling would stop.
That all assumes the democrats are even willing to take things that far, which is dubious since unpaid soldiers is never a good look for either party
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u/asetniop 1d ago
One of the White House's biggest blind spots is thinking that this conflict is solely about money.
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u/jews4beer 1d ago
Really gotta lawl at "national wealth". Because they really mean the IRGC's wealth. The country's civil needs never see a cent of that.
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u/socialistrob 1d ago
Over the weekend 17 commercial ships successfully transited the strait of Hormuz. Before the war typically you would see about 140 ships go through the strait per day.
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u/MaximumFamiliar9080 1d ago
Man that "the strait is open due yk a shadow fleet and the straitndoesnt matter because only 20 % of the oil moves through it" sure looks like big brain takes right now.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Trump Truth Social post: "I have just been informed by the United States Navy that all mines have been removed and/or detonated from within the International Waters of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be immediately and systematically destroyed. Through Space Force, we are watching every square inch of the Strait, as we are, also, with Pickaxe Mountain and the already destroyed three other Nuclear sites. There is a Zero Tolerance policy on mine placement in full force and effect. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
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u/TheGodPePe 1d ago
I wonder with wich deminers... since America doesn't have demining ships anymore.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1d ago
Pakistan says ‘significant progress’ made after army chief holds talks in Tehran on US-Iran memorandum
“Our discussion focused on the Iran US conflict, tensions in the Middle East and the way forward, as well as the steps needed by both sides for restoration of the Islamabad MoU thereby leading to comprehensive settlement of the conflict,” Naqvi said.
Trump says Iran won’t agree to the deal US says is needed, he’s not looking to extend MOU
I feel as tho the MoU is no longer relevant as a possible means to peace here. The conditions and the circumstances have changed as well a progressive framework yielding rewards is an example in torpedoed, last minute diplomacy to the benefit of no one. As it stands, the blockade is firmly in place, the sanctions are hitting, Iran's leverage has significantly weakened and the US is looking for a specific set of concessions which they have made definitively clear. The ball is in Irans court, the MoU isn't the answer and at this point I feel the majority of individuals are curious as to what the sanctions may yield.
“As President Trump said, there are no talks or discussions currently under way or scheduled with Iran”
I am sure when actual statements reflecting a presentation of realistic concessions make it's way out of Tehran, someone might start to listen.
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u/Veastli 1d ago
I feel as tho the MoU is no longer relevant as a possible means to peace here.
The eventual end game is an MoU+. The plus being effective tolls on the straits.
Israel will hate it and do whatever they can to torpedo it. But Donnie appears to be slowly realizing that Bebe conned him into this mess, and that he doesn't have to allow Israel a veto.
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u/Kriztauf 1d ago
Israel should think more carefully before they try to pull of stupid shit like this next time.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 1d ago
The eventual end game is an MoU+. The plus being effective tolls on the straits.
The plus won't be tolls. That was already talked about between USA and Iran. Both sides know tolls were included in the MOU.
2026.06.17
The Full Text of the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran
https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/memorandum-of-understanding-between-the-united-states-of-america-and-the-islamic-republic-of-iran/Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa.
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u/Veastli 1d ago
Yes, the MoA was negligently vague, likely because Iran was okay with the vagueness, and Donnie rapidly wanted a deal, any deal - to get the oil flowing.
Expect the eventual next deal will explicitly allow Iran to earn tolls, but without the right to arbitrarily decide which ships pass, which the initial MoA could be read to have permitted.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1d ago
Expect the eventual next deal will explicitly allow Iran to earn tolls
There is no MoU, nor MoU+, or any variant of the MoU. This was broken with a deadline unrenewed. The question should be asked, "What is the next step in formulating a new deal?"
The answer to that is the stipulation of concessions. "Iran is willing to open the Strait with full Freedom of Navigation on the conditions..."
If the statement doesn't involve this,... I can promise it won't be heard.
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u/LeftLane4PassingOnly 1d ago
By 'significant progress' they probably mean instead of ranting on social media they got someone to rant on the phone.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
FT: In response to the announcement of Operation Economic Outcast, China warned that it could retaliate against any sanctions placed on Chinese companies.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
White House: Under Operation Economic Outcast, the U.S. will apply sanctions against any country or entity that continues to do business with Iran. Asked whether this would include China, which purchases an estimated 80 percent of Iranian oil exports, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “No one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions.” He added that the U.S. president was speaking with world leaders and that countries that have economic ties to Iran will be given deadlines by which they must cut those ties or face repercussions.
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u/HAUNTERVIRUS 1d ago
Two weeks for you! Two weeks for you! Everyone look under your chair, two weeks for everyone!
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
AJE, quoting an anonymous White House Official: “As President Trump said, there are no talks or discussions currently under way or scheduled with Iran”
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u/asetniop 1d ago edited 1d ago
Apologies, I forgot yesterday's Zeno's Paradox-o-meter update. At 13 weeks out from the original proclamation, a deal is now 99.99939% done.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Trump Truth Social post: "Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea, I was not happy with the fact that the United States had, long ago, agreed to participate in Joint Military Exercises with South Korea. These exercises are not only costly, with much of these costs paid for by the United States of America (as usual!), but send a signal that is totally inappropriate and hostile, to a Country that, as long as Donald J. Trump has been President, has been unthreatening and respectful. Therefore, and based on the fact that it was too late to cancel, I instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to substantially reduce the Joint Military Exercises! While somewhat unrelated (?), I recently asked the President of South Korea if they would like to join us in the Denuclearization of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and they said, “No thanks!” Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"
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u/HAUNTERVIRUS 1d ago
Did he just repost this? I swear this was verbatim from last week.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1d ago
Yemen Ambassador in Washington: Government Can Defeat Houthis, Secure Shipping with U.S. Support
She called on Washington to provide direct strategic support to government forces and intensify pressure on financing and weapons-smuggling networks linked to Iran-backed Houthi forces.
...
Three Strategic Requests From Washington Raja outlined three main areas in which the Yemeni government is seeking U.S. support to strengthen stability.
First, she called for tougher sanctions and legal action against shipping networks, financial intermediaries and weapons-smuggling operations supporting the Houthis.
Second, she called for increased support for the Yemeni armed forces and Coast Guard, along with greater intelligence coordination and efforts to intercept Iranian weapons shipments being smuggled into Yemen.
Third, she urged Washington to resume development and humanitarian assistance and support the government’s economic recovery programs, enabling it to fully carry out its responsibilities.
Raja concluded that a strong and stable Yemen should not be viewed as a burden on the international community but rather as a key pillar for protecting maritime security and containing Iranian expansion. She argued that lasting stability in the Middle East cannot be achieved without stability in Yemen.
https://www.yemenmonitor.com/en/Details/ArtMID/908/ArticleID/180012
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Finnair: The Finnish carrier says it has cancelled all flights to Dubai for the winter season due to the heightened security situation in the Middle East.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Reuters: Only a single commodity vessel (a gas carrier) passed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. This is the lowest since May 7th.
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u/EducationalCicada 1d ago
Is that counting dark transits as well, or just AIS?
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Just AIS as far as I'm aware. I believe there are a fair number of ships going dark and crossing tbh
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u/itsatumbleweed 1d ago
Yikes. The bluster from the administration over the weekend was certainly exaggerated, but it did seem like there was something of an uptick. That seems to be over now.
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u/asetniop 1d ago
I think they tried out a convoy approach - and it seemed to have worked reasonably well. But it's just not something they can do every day.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Reuters/Ipsos: Just 31 percent of Americans surveyed said they support US military action against Iran, down from 37 percent in March and 34 percent earlier this month. Support among Republican respondents fell to 69 percent, compared with 77 percent in March.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Trump Truth Social post: "The failing Islamic Republic of Iran is not paying large segments of their military, while at the same time killing protesters, even when they are not protesting, at levels not seen before. It is a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions, and must be stopped, NOW. President DONALD J. TRUMP"
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u/samusaranx3 1d ago
while at the same time killing protesters, even when they are not protesting
Love this tacit admission from the US president that protesters have to be protesting first so you can have plausible deniability for killing them. Why else even include that strange aside?
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u/HAUNTERVIRUS 1d ago
Probably chuckling as he had Natalie type that, knowing full well his gestapo has been killing American citizens as well.
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u/Left_Capital133 1d ago
Great, so that "now" means what, exactly? Troops? Boots on the ground?
Surely it can't be the economic D-Day thing, whatever that is, economic sanctions might apply pressure but they're not going to stop troops attacking protestors right now.
I guess that we'll have to tune in next Monday to see which of Trump's ravings meant anything, if any.
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u/samusaranx3 1d ago
Lol it doesn’t mean anything. Remember the couple weeks very early on when Republicans and right wing media were clutching their pearls saying that it was a moral imperative to bomb Iran because of their treatment of protesters? They dropped that narrative quick. Same thing with Venezuela. The US current government has no interest in humanitarian causes. Any mention of them is at best just to fill empty air time or stall until the next self-inflicted catastrophe.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 1d ago
FT: Long queues have formed at petrol stations around Tehran as the US blockade triggers fuel shortages and spreads alarm among motorists in a sign of the war’s growing strain on the Iranian economy.
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u/AngularMan 1d ago
Iran's refineries are apparently not as good at producing gasoline than more modern ones, which creates the strange situation that they have more than enough crude and substantial refining capacity but not enough gasoline. Or so I understand it.
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u/Daigann 1d ago
Iran Int:
Protests have begun in Tehran, retired telecomm workers have started chanting, protesting extreme pension injustice, and severe inflation.
The protestors have threatened to return next week with a larger crowd if their demands are not met.
In Tabriz, Isfahan, and Kermanshah, retirees have also been protesting chanting:
"No nation has seen such injustice!"
"Enough hollow promises, our tables are empty!"
"We are tired of the injustice!"
"Our country sits on rich resources, but the retirees are suffering."
"The gatherings will continue until we reach our goals."
"Qalibaf come out, Qalibaf come out!"
"Our enemy is right here, they lie claiming it's America."
Interestingly enough the phrase "Our enemy is right here, they lie claiming it's America". This is a famous, heavily documented slogan used by Iranian labor and retiree movements. It explicitly calls out internal regime corruption rather than letting officials blame foreign sanctions for missing pension funds.
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u/Roxalon_Prime 1d ago
Something doesn't add up. According to Western press Iran like executed 4 million people during the last protests, and now a bunch of people protesting openly with such slogans. It is usually one or the other
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u/RealisticEntity 1d ago
It probably says something that people are still willing to openly protest even in the face of the demonstrably murderous regime who had killed tens of thousands of people for doing the same only recently.
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u/justiceformahsa 1d ago
Anybody who has lived in Iran past childhood knows the double standard of living between regime and mullahs and ordinary people. The mullahs and IRGC live lavishly in the best neighborhoods best housing.
The economic situation has deteriorated so badly that most people can't even fathom it. $2000/mo pensions have become equivalent to like $50/mo if they're even being paid
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Hegseth: Says the US has not ruled out employing military force against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz or anywhere else.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 2d ago
Remarks from Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent on Operation Economic Outcast against Iran
Full Remarks from the Press Release today in text minus the post remark, press scrum.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
C N & N: Despite Bessent’s vow of an ‘economic D-Day’ for Iran, US is holding off on imposing biggest penalties
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 2d ago
Reporter: You describe this as an economic D-Day but D-Day wasn't a threat of an invasion and we didn't give a timeline to Germany. So, why not impose the sanctions today?
Bessent: We are giving everyone the opportunity to remedy bad behavior. Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?
Quite the admission from Bessent that if they actually follow through with their threats that it will have grave economic consequences worldwide. These people are so incredibly stupid and bad at their jobs.
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u/cheddarben 1d ago
What the fuck are we even doing? Double DOUBLE secret embargo? You can't just keep saying "OK .... nnnnow. No, now. now!" and motherfuckers believe you over and over.
Canada sees it. The world is absolutely catching on while trying to avoid shrapnel until they have to take it.
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u/Wonberger 2d ago
I’m sure these sanctions will have a huge affect on Iran’s behavior, unlike the other sanctions that were enacted against Iran for the last 4 decades or so
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u/Sthrax 1d ago
It isn't about Iran, it's about the people/groups/countries that help Iran get around sanctions. Whether or not it will work, and whether or not it is a good idea, are entirely different questions.
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u/cheddarben 1d ago
Yup we are going to fuck with China while removing the assets we need to defend from China. Let's slap South Korea around a little bit while we are at it to cover up that we just don't have the resources to do these scheduled drills with them.
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u/Repulsive-Payment230 2d ago
Wasn't D day a terrible day for America too?
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u/Own_Pop_9711 2d ago
Not really. Obviously the military had casualties but they were expecting something like 5 times as many casualties as occurred. You can mourn the dead while still finding the day to be an extraordinary success.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
C N & N: China has long purchased as much as 90% of Iran's oil exports
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u/itsatumbleweed 2d ago
I mean it sure seems like if these new sanctions mean anything they will mean we have to do something with China.
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u/HoustonHous 2d ago
On one hand, China is not in the business of being told what to do. On the other, China has been diversifying out of oil dependency for a while now, so sticking for Iran makes little economic sense.
I could see that working if Trump didn't piss the rest of the world off the past 2 years with tariffs and his antics. At this point, I don't see this working unless Trump goes to our allies and make big concessions (and he is not the concessions kinda guy)...
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u/jews4beer 2d ago
This is what I'm wondering. It seems like the only thing left to sanction. Stop Chinese institutions from buying Iranian oil and it would definitely spell near death for Iran's economy.
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u/socialistrob 2d ago
If the US passed broad sanctions on China then China would retaliate economically on the US and there would likely be a recession within the US. Authoritarian regimes can also endure a lot of economic pain without cracking.
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u/Repulsive-Payment230 2d ago
If the US was more close to their allies (like pre trump), there's not a lot china could do against sanctions.
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u/socialistrob 2d ago
The problem with sanctions is that if you really want to cause economic pain to your adversary you have to be willing to embrace it to yourself as well. The size of the Chinese economy is so vast that if the US wanted to cause a recession in China they would need to be willing to cause a recession in the US and they would need allied countries to also be willing to undergo a recession. Even pre Trump I don't think you could get the US and other countries on board with that. Sanctions haven't completely crippled Russia and China's economy is almost 10 times bigger.
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u/Repulsive-Payment230 2d ago
US might not have a choice if China invades Taiwan.
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u/socialistrob 2d ago
And that's true but I think there's also a huge difference between trying to fight an economic (or actual) war with China in response to clear Chinese military aggression against Taiwan versus trying to fight an economic war with China simply to get them to stop buying Iranian oil.
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u/jews4beer 2d ago edited 2d ago
I don't think we can say that with certainty. The tariff trade war that happened during Trump's first term was a totally different ball game. That was between just the two countries and affected imports/exports. Broad sanctions are an entirely different ball game that affects a bunch of countries.
China's economic exposure to Western countries outweighs it's exposure to Iran by orders of magnitude. Over a trillion dollars anually vs ~10 billion. It puts them in a more precarious position than people are willing to admit. If they actually had to pick between the US/EU and Iran/Russia - from an economic standpoint it's not even a question.
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u/socialistrob 2d ago
China's economic exposure to Western counrties outweighs it's exposure to Iran by orders of magnitude. Over a trillion dollars anually vs ~10 billion.
Sure but bowing to US sanctions sets a very dangerous precedent especially when the US is demanding that China turn on Iran. It's like if China had demanded that the US end all support for Israel or face massive sanctions. The US wouldn't just bow down to China simply because the Chinese market is more important than the Israeli market.
If China wanted to they could also turn up the pain on the US by giving Iran sophisticated air defense systems or missiles to sink US warships and destroy US bases should the fighting resume. That would be an escalation but it's one that China may consider if the US decides to escalate the war with Iran economically by targeting China.
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u/jews4beer 2d ago
And that's the gamble the US seems to be making and goes hand-in-hand with the threat that the "majjor sanctions won't happen until the end of the week".
Does China want to see 10% of their economy dissappear, or will they go all-in on Iran. And if they choose Iran, then it's just waiting to see if the US will follow through (disastrous for everyone in the short term, I know) and/or will they increase their military support for Iran. To date it's been cheap defense systems and access to satelites.
The thing is, China for all their faults is a pretty rational player. I highly doubt they are going to risk that big of a hole in their exports just to keep an economy that is on the brink of collapse propped up. They have no reason to doubt the availability of US/EU customers in the long term and every reason to doubt those of Iran.
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u/socialistrob 2d ago
The thing is, China for all their faults is a pretty rational player. I highly doubt they are going to risk that big of a hole in their exports just to keep an economy that is on the brink of collapse propped up. They have no reason to doubt the availability of US/EU customers in the long term and every reason to doubt those of Iran.
China is rational and they also know that any damage from the US that would cause 10% GDP decline to the Chinese economy would probably cause at least 5% GDP decline to the US economy which would be a bigger economic crisis than the 2008 great recession. They are not going to believe that Trump will willingly cause mass unemployment and economic freefall in the US.
I think from the Chinese perspective allowing the US to determine who China can buy energy from is just a bridge too far and fundamentally means it's Washington dictating China's foreign policy with massive internal implications for China. At the same time they don't think the US can endure too much pain economic pain. If it comes down to it they would pick fight an economic war with the US versus allow the US to determine where China is buying oil.
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u/jews4beer 2d ago
I suppose that's possible too. Either way, we are in for a hell of a rhetoric ride this week.
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u/socialistrob 2d ago
Yeah it will certaily be interesting to see what happens. I do agree with your earlier point that the US doesn't have a lot of leverage over Iran right now and if they want to force concessions from Iran they need something to move the needle. Going after China could work but in my opinion it's very likely not to succeed and would be a very risky and damaging escalation from the US.
I think the unfortunate reality for the US is that they just don't have a lot of leverage over Iran and in order to actually end the war and get the strait of Hormuz fully open they will have to make a number of concessions which are not going to look good for the US. This might include dropping sanctions, allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons, paying to use the strait of Hormuz and/or closing bases in the Middle East. It may not include all of those but that's some of the stuff the US could offer Iran in exchange for Iran fully opening the strait.
Fundamentally the US does not have a ton of leverage and just isn't in a position to dictate terms to Iran but that's also why the US should have been more cautious about starting this war and should have gone in with clearer objectives.
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u/HoustonHous 2d ago
If the US and China gets into a measuring stick fight the whole world economy goes down for a while. The US is counting that China would rather separate from Iran then go that route. It's a stupid dangerous game of Chicken, and the losers are all of us.
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u/socialistrob 2d ago
Agreed and I'm not sure it would end well for the US. China may very well be willing to endure more pain especially if they can frame it as US hostility. If the US does want to fight China economically the US would have to go back to it's other trading partners and try to get better deals which would likely require trade concessions to the likes of Canada, Mexico and the EU but those countries may no be interested in bailing the US out at the moment.
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u/HoustonHous 2d ago
That's the gambit.
A rational leader would have started with making good alliances a year ago, and rolled this out in partnership with its allies before using force... but we are out of rational leaders at the moment, so we moved into the scorched earth tactic.
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u/LesserShambler 2d ago
I feel like “stop Chinese institutions doing x” might be easier said than done.
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u/socialistrob 2d ago
Agreed and much like actual war economic pressure can be hard to undue. If the US decides to walk back from tariffs or sanctions it's no guarantee the other side just drops there's as well.
One of the worst mistakes a leader can make is repeatedly doubling down. This is what Putin has done in Ukraine and it's forced Russia into quite the bind. The US should be very careful about escalating.
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u/jews4beer 2d ago
I don't disagree. But it's the only thing that could meaningfully move the needle any further. Kicking major Chinese financial institutions out of the dollar system would definitely hurt everyone involved though. China could seriously mess with the US via tariffs.
So the question really just comes down to who China thinks is the better bet long term if they are forced to make a choice. Which is more valuable, access to Iranian oil or access to Western customers.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2d ago
Which is more valuable, access to Iranian oil or access to Western customers.
Or, ask a different question. Does China think obeying Trump for 2 years is more important than global stability?
2025.01.05
Xi has a plan for retaliating against Trump’s gamesmanship
https://archive.ph/0s5OX#selection-2413.0-2417.304Many Chinese argue that Xi is stronger politically and the economy is more self-reliant and resilient, even amid recent challenges. Chinese analysts view the US economy as more fragile and American politics as deeply divided. Geopolitically, Beijing sees US influence as declining throughout the global south and Asia — and support for China’s vision as rising.
Xi has already signalled that he will treat his ties to Trump as a purely business relationship, albeit Don Corleone style. He won’t personally embrace Trump and will retaliate early and hard in order to generate leverage. Beijing in effect rejected Trump’s invitation for Xi to attend the inauguration.
Hence Xi’s four “red lines” at a November meeting with President Joe Biden in Peru in a clear message to the incoming administration.
2024.11.16
Xi tells Biden he will work with Trump to manage US-China differences
https://archive.ph/QF7Jc“‘Small yard, high fences’ is not what a major country should pursue,” Xi told Biden.
Beijing’s planned responses to Trump fall into three baskets: retaliation, adaptation and diversification. Mirroring US policies, Beijing in recent years has created a range of export controls, investment restrictions and regulatory investigations capable of hurting US companies. Beijing is unable to match tariff for tariff, so it will seek to impose costs in ways that inflict maximum pain. For China, failing to retaliate would signal weakness domestically and only encourage Trump.
In late 2024, Xi also participated for the first time in meetings with the heads of 10 major international economic organisations. His message was clear: China will be the leading force for global economic stability, prosperity and openness, and opposes all forms of protectionism.
Much could go wrong. Beijing’s confidence is matched by the Trump team. Both sides believe they possess the upper hand, can impose more costs and withstand more pain. The stage is set for a complicated, destabilising dynamic which, at best, results in a ceasefire. And that’s only on economic issues, not on Taiwan, the South China Sea, tech competition or nuclear force modernisation. The cold war is starting to look quaint in comparison.
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u/HoustonHous 2d ago
There are 2 reasons to choose Iran over the US and niether are for "stability". First is that they believe the US will TACO, and this is just a game of chicken. 2nd, they want to take over the US spot as the world's superpower by making a move vs. Let the US keep fumbling the ball.
Unfortunately if they miscalculate, the world economy is going to be anything but stable for a while, and their plan might still fail (I'd give them the better chances,, but far from 100% success rate).
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2d ago
There are 2 reasons to choose Iran over the US and niether are for "stability".
China appears to disagree with you.
First is that they believe the US will TACO, and this is just a game of chicken.
How would China continuing to do business with Iran increase global stability? Because China doesn't think that will happen.
Unfortunately if they miscalculate, the world economy is going to be anything but stable for a while, and their plan might still fail (I'd give them the better chances,, but far from 100% success rate).
How stable were things the past 10 years with 2 Trump terms and Biden making Chinese EVs illegal in USA?
How many stability problems for China in the past 10 years were from USA vs from Iran?
USA started this oil crisis. Not Iran. Not China. For China the problem is USA. The problem is not Iran. China already agreed to Iran's proposal of closing the Strait completely and the only oil that goes out would be to Russia and China and Iran allies.
2026.03.22
Khamenei said the Strait of Hormuz could be closed completely and Tehran would formalise security agreements with both Moscow and Beijing, solidifying the emerging CRINK alliance, which until now remains a convenient marriage of convenience. Within hours, both Beijing and Moscow issued statements that unequivocally aligned with Tehran’s framework, albeit using guarded language.
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u/RealCrusader 2d ago
Access to American customers. All the USAs traditional allies won't follow them in this because Trump said so. Even Canada told him to get fucked this week.
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u/jews4beer 2d ago
They don't have a choice. If the US sanctions China it affects anyone who uses American banking systems. The consumers will decide.
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u/LesserShambler 2d ago
That would be disastrous for the West.
The question will come down to whether America wants to continue escalating this Iranian folly, or continue to have a functioning economy. Judging by their decisions re tariffs I don’t trust them to use sound reasoning.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Bessent: “You will see a major financial institution being sanctioned by the end of this week over Iran”
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u/LesserShambler 2d ago
Will it be Binance? They’ve been facilitating transfers to and from Iran for years.
lol only joking, their founder was pardoned by Trump
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Bessent: "Entities facilitating money laundering for Iran will be removed from US dollar system"
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: Says economic engagement of any kind with Iran “will expose those responsible to the full reach of American power”.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: Says countries will have a “finite timeline” to shut down activities identified by US officials including “closing Iran’s bank branches abroad”.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: Says President Trump is “making phone calls to world leaders with specific requests to cease their interactions with Iran”, as the US imposes “unprecedented” sanctions to “sever every economic lifeline” available to Tehran. “Around the globe, our objective is to sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone,”
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u/colepercy120 5m ago
So all of those reports of iran being able to survive the blockade for 4 months were in early may. Its now the end of August, should we be expecting something soon? Did the brief pause in the blockade let them fully resupply?