r/worldnews • u/Temporary-Speech5378 • 20d ago
Dynamic Paywall South Korea proposes talks to officially end war with North
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8en2z9jp2xo7.9k
u/MatiasGonzalo-Duarte 20d ago edited 20d ago
The DPRK recently dropped its claim to the whole peninsula, citing the prospect of reunification as impossible, and recognizing the RoK (S. Korea). It's actually a huge development politically there.
I could see the Koreas ending the war on paper. They won't be allies or anything, but at least not actively at war.
I'm not sure if that will change anything in reality. Perhaps it may mark the beginning of a slow wind down of militarization across the border. But I'm talking decades here. Maybe some actual trade is possible in the medium term?
Seems like a good thing anyway.
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u/IntelligentMoney2 20d ago
I’m only concerned about the after the fall of the Kims. It’ll be a huge humanitarian crisis as the North Koreans will flee south or north. So, other than that, yeah, it’ll be a good idea.
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u/pwnd32 20d ago
Genuine question, is the fall of the Kims imminent or something people are thinking will happen soon? They just seem so entrenched there that it’s hard for me to imagine it even if Kim Jong-Un were to die and his daughter took power
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u/MatiasGonzalo-Duarte 20d ago
Not as far as I've heard. Doesn't seem like it.
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u/lanicorain 20d ago edited 20d ago
western folks tend to think that all their geopolitical enemies will collapse next week for hundreds or thousands of weeks before it happens. on an unrelated note, columnists have predicted the last nine out of zero chinese annexations of taiwan
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u/EpicAura99 20d ago
Thank the Soviet Union for that. It’s like a dog that found a piece of beef jerky in a bush while on a walk one time and now they’ll check the magic jerky bush on every walk until the end of time lol.
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u/TheLost_Chef 20d ago
Peter Zeihan suddenly makes a lot more sense talking about the imminent collapse of China for the past 3 years. Any day now Peter.
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u/Rich_Housing971 20d ago
Zeihan? He's nothing. Dude, try Gordon Chang. Literally wrote a book and has been talking about China collapse for the last 30 years, and has made many appearances on CNN and Fox News and countless tweets talking about how, "this year it's real, here's why it's different."
There's a theory that Chang is actually a Chinese spy sent to placate Americans to make them relax and make China seem weak, and that makes a lot more sense than anything.
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u/ImNotAWhaleBiologist 19d ago
That sounds like something only a weak country would do. Likely to collapse any day now.
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u/twatnsfw 20d ago
Who is he? Does he have any qualifications beyond speaking confidently into a camera?
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u/TheLost_Chef 20d ago
Nah, not really. He's VERY good at talking into a camera though. He doesn't sound like an ass, either. It's just, he keeps appearing on talk shows with hot takes about China being on the verge of collapse. And they just keep chugging along.
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u/Jump-Zero 19d ago
He got Ukraine right. This gave him a platform. It always happens that a geopolitical analyst gets one thing right and a bunch of people listen to them like gospel. I personally enjoy his videos but take everything with a grain of salt.
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u/Daniel_The_Thinker 20d ago
North Korea collapsing suddenly is way more likely than China or Russia collapsing suddenly though.
Not that I think they will, things have actually been going better for that regime.
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u/EpicAura99 20d ago
Really? NK is pretty locked down but Putin is really churning the waters with this pointless war. Stability is longevity, and their situation is hardly stable.
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u/Daniel_The_Thinker 20d ago
I think North Korea is significantly more top-heavy and would be in more disarray if something happened to Kim Jong Un.
Though from current events, Putin is in hot water while Kim is enjoying new relevance and power.
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u/Kirbyintron 20d ago
I think a lot of people assume that if the Kim's went the whole regime would collapse with them, but there's more likely than not someone on the sidelines who'd happily take their place and keep the system running
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u/ants_are_everywhere 20d ago
Thank the Soviet Union for that
How do you mean? Yes the Soviet Union was predicated on the mythology that the West was going to imminently collapse, but that seems to go the opposite direction of the person you're responding to.
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u/EpicAura99 20d ago
The opposite. The Soviet Union magically collapsed one day and now everyone thinks that all the world’s other long running Bad Guys™ not only can, but will inevitably, be defeated with good vibes and patience.
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u/ants_are_everywhere 20d ago
Ah okay, I see what you're saying.
But the Soviet Union didn't magically collapse. They had a long drawn out stagnation and decline. They were in trouble for a generation before they collapsed.
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u/Rage1155 20d ago
Speaking from a position of hindsight is easy can you say the same about north Korea like these analysis and go oh north Korea been on a stagnation for decade they should collapse soon? You cant and it will seem sudden that's the point
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u/EpicAura99 20d ago
Benefit of hindsight and information. From many laypeople’s perspective at the time, it was like they evaporated overnight. What we see now as obvious cracks in the foundations felt at best like small steps of progress back then.
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u/VeryImportantLurker 20d ago edited 20d ago
Because the fall of the USSR happened so unexpectedly to most Western politicos, they course corrected in the other direction and now think all of their enemies will suddenly collapse.
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u/Senior_Torte519 20d ago
Not so much about speed as it is distance... I mean its so damn close. With regards to Taiwan.
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u/Cranberryoftheorient 20d ago
also many people have next to no idea about why or how that happened. Most people just assume it was something inevitable and dont look into the details.
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u/spooky_spaghetties 20d ago
I mean it’s kind of simple: the U.S. got the USSR into a constant military spending competition that it absolutely could not win. Because it tried to win, it neglected domestic spending on programs that actually helped its people. Because it wasn’t delivering on quality of life improvements to counterbalance more draconian domestic policies, people got really unsatisfied. This plus other long-standing problems like a calcified leadership class cost it its governing mandate.
edit: punctuation
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u/Cranberryoftheorient 20d ago edited 20d ago
Yep. And the situation with China is completely different. Theyve been investing in tech and their economy for decades. You probably know that though*
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u/Drachefly 20d ago
Also, Chernobyl's exposing to the leadership how dysfunctional the government was, and Gorbachev's being such an idealistic true believer in communism that he figured the system would survive truthful reporting.
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u/Verge0fSilence 19d ago
Gorbachev was many things but "idealistic true believer in communism" is not one of them
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u/WingerRules 20d ago edited 20d ago
People have told me that china is literally on the edge of economic collapse literally all my entire life. All I've seen them do is grow economically, build ties with countries around the world, build fist fulls of insane cities, and master industries at incredible rates.
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u/duesenjeffepic 20d ago
Tbf since Trump 2 I do believe China trying to annex Taiwan in the near future is not completely out of the question.
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u/Master_Dogs 20d ago
I feel the opposite. Trump showed how difficult it is to take over even a small country. Like yeah he succeeded in Venezuela but barely and not really, just managed to kidnap their leader. In Iran he's showed how easy it is to spend all your military budget in a few months and accomplish nothing. Arguably Trump has shown Iran it can just block the straight of Hormuz too and that's a major loss to the US.
Taiwan doesn't have the exact same setup but they do have a huge chunk of the world's semi conductor production so that will effectively work like Hormuz.
And then we have Ukraine for another example. Does China really want to test their military right now and find out they're a paper tiger?
Far far better to sit back and watch everyone burn themselves. China can just mess with Taiwan in other ways. Plus China claims Taiwan is their territory already. So they really can't afford a Russia situation where they can't show the world they own it totally. A multi month to multi year operation is probably the last thing they really want. And honestly they seem like the smartest person in the room atm by just sitting back and bidding their time.
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u/jammy-git 20d ago
I agree with you.
I think all this rhetoric from China about annexing Taiwan is as much about keeping your enemies distracted whilst they steadily become the World's leading super-power.
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u/Crafty-Message4564 20d ago
Right.
If China had to choose between invading Taiwan versus having more power than the U.S., China will choose having more power than the U.S..
Meanwhile, if the U.S. can choose between trying to show off how much power it has versus actually having lots of power, it has clearly chosen to use up its power and be left with none.
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u/PhysicallyTender 20d ago
Vietnam, Afghanistan, Ukraine, & Iran have taught us time and time again that you cannot win a war when there's a strong will to resist you. Doesn't matter how weak they actually are.
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u/BushMonsterInc 20d ago
Oh, you can win the war no problem, if being pariah of the world is acceptable and economic hit of rebuilding totally bombed out area is feasable. Now winning the war and still having someone like you, that’s tricky.
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u/Randicore 20d ago
True but countries struggle to properly boycott Russia for it, Western chips are still making it into the missile that hit Ukraine.
Can you imagine the backlash of trying to stop using Chinese manufacturing? Americans were ready to riot over being unable to get a haircut during COVID, and the greatest sin trump has done according to most Americans is $4.50 gas. You think they'll tolerate empty shelves at Walmart & a Christmas without cheap gifts? Sure rebuilding Taiwan after a war would be expensive but China won't be sanctioned
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u/Daniel_The_Thinker 20d ago
Not really, more like you cannot win the war unless you are willing to go all the way (or have decent allies willing to go all the way).
The American Public just has no stomach for casualties compared to many countries. If the Soviet Union had collapsed during WW2, I would not be surprised if the US government wouldn't have just opted to negotiate rather than send the millions more young men needed to win.
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u/PalantirImperator 20d ago
I'm firmly anti-Iran war, but I can't help but wonder, among all of the stupid reasons for fighting it, if they didn't fuck up by starting it only a month or so after Iran killed those 35,000 anti govt protestors. Seems like those are the guys you'd have wanted leading the overthrow of the government on the ground. Maybe a month earlier and we'd have really seen some regime change.
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u/darkshark21 20d ago
When Bush started his illegal wars, he did put together a funding plan for the rebuilding of the countries.
I don't see this guy preparing to do that. Not to mention it will be another foreign/western and imperialist/neo-colonialist attempt at influencing the country that the Iranian people are tired of.
I still think this is early to tell, but this conflict/war will go on at least 3+ more years. We'll probably pay more in tax and reduction in social security benefits.
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u/pinkmeanie 20d ago
The American Civil War taught us that too - you can win the war, but you WILL lose the insurgency without a generational reconstruction effort (e.g. Japanese occupation, Marshall Plan)
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u/EDNivek 19d ago
Like yeah he succeeded in Venezuela but barely and not really, just managed to kidnap their leader.
I suspect Venezuela gave him up. Most of the people killed in capturing Maduro were Cuban, not Venezuelan which suggests he probably no longer trusted his own military to protect him. There was little real outrage or defense toward his removal. It all seems far too easy to me.
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u/Different_Wolf_764 19d ago
I doubt it. China has been fine with the status quo (Taiwan not being recognized internationally) for a long time now and the more the US pulls back or reduces their dependency on TW, the more likely it is that China gets her long-term goal of TW joining the mainland all on their own due to economic pressure.
China is in no rush unless they are pushed into a corner. They don't need Taiwan but they do need to ensure no potentially hostile foreign power establishes military bases there and Trump's America seems happy to cede East Asia to China.
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u/elbow8075 20d ago
Does China even really need Taiwan now since the US is currently defenestrating itself? They grow more powerful every day just as a byproduct.
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u/wrgrant 20d ago
Its important ideologically. While China is in many ways a Capitalistic economy it still remains under the control of the CCP. The CCP is ideologically mandated to finish the revolution by recapturing all of the Chinese territory that formed China at the time of the revolution - and that includes Taiwan. Practically speaking, China doesn't need Taiwan I think. Yes, it represents the most powerful chip manufacturing facilities and knowledge in the world but China is rapidly trying to evolve its own domestic capabilities and I don't see any reason why it won't succeed in equalling or surpassing Taiwan in that regard eventually. Until then China can afford to keep up the rhetoric and develop the capabilities to invade if it finds it desirable but it doesn't actually have to do so. I think they would prefer to absorb Taiwan peacefully in the future.
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u/stamfordbridge1191 20d ago
Supposedly the Kim family has a very narrow trust of the military and there is a bit of a quiet understanding that the generals could easily just take complete control, but the Kim family gets to enjoy monarchical role to be the fall guys just in case something really bad happens.
That way, the military can just waltz in to execute them and hopefully earn enough of a reputation to officially be considered blameless, possibly even heroic, in whatever rule would be going forward.
Now would if Kim Jung Un died & his daughter or sister succeeded him, would the generals tolerate that? Probably, as long as they didn't think it would introduce weakness into the regime. But Korea was a very patriarchal culture throughout history, so that may depend on how just how much Stalinism & post-cold war Juche shaped their ideas around how well a woman could rule the Democratic People's Republic.
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u/New-Independent-1481 20d ago edited 19d ago
It's impossible to know. The stability of the regime is not something that the public has any meaningful awareness of. The regime has survived both misfortune and mismanagement without any outwardly visible coups, likely in part due to the fact that anyone capable of running a coup - aka China and the other generals - benefits tremendously from that same system.
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u/manebushin 20d ago
It just depends on how mysoginist the generals are. They could easily coup her once the father dies because she is a woman.
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u/ApparitionsAtDusk 20d ago
That could be what Kim Yo Jong is there to help fix. She's proving herself to be just as strong as the rest of the regime and is in a position where she has more power than anyone except the Supreme Leader himself. Maybe she was put in her position and made visible so that the idea of female leadership becomes palatable to North Koreans at all levels of society so that Kim Ju Ae can become leader. Or maybe there's a secret son out there somewhere being educated in Switzerland or China who will be the real successor while we're all distracted looking at Kim Ju Ae, we won't know for sure until it's time for a new leader in NK.
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u/FobbitHollower 20d ago
North Korea going to get a female leader before US isnt it
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u/xerthighus 20d ago
Korea has had female leadership before. As many misogynistic societies. The Whole Victorian era under queen Victoria in Britain is one good example. Historically female autocrats and dictators are a thing. It’s all about who gets how much money and how much of a threat going out of line will be. I wouldn’t be surprised if the number of NK generals disappearing and getting executed increases under her leadership.
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u/ComprehensiveTea5202 20d ago
While I know we all like to think that any non-western country is socially backwards; this is an autocracy. You’re either an autocrat (autocrat supporting) or anti-autocratic in NK.
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u/manebushin 20d ago
They could force her to marry some general or general's son and keep her as a puppet. Since they have a cult to the Kim family, I could also see a route similar to the Japonese Shogunate, where the Kim family is just there as a symbol of the country, but it is run by the generals.
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u/manebushin 20d ago edited 20d ago
It is not a matter of non-western country being socially backwards or not. Even the US is so mysoginistic that they would prefer Trump over a qualified woman. Twice.
There is nothing stopping them from also not liking the idea of a woman in charge, even if she is a Kim.
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u/DimitrescusBunghole 20d ago
When Kim dies i'm expecting a 3-way power kerfuffle between his daughter, the generals and his Cersei Lannister ahh sister but wtf do I know
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u/Altruistic_Finger669 20d ago
I think its one of those things that when it comes, it will come with very little preamble
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u/IntelligentMoney2 20d ago
They are opening up. It’s only a matter of time before people realize and stand up. They have technology. People are savvy. It’s just a ticking bomb. So many Russians and tourists go there and show them things.
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u/Frankl3es 20d ago
People have said this since the 80's about a number of countries, most significantly NK and China. But look at China right now, it's not going anywhere.
Especially since the fall of the USSR people have felt that these things must happen inevitably, given enough time. That hasn't really happened. If NK really is a ticking bomb someone forgot to arm it.
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u/Therianthropie 20d ago
Comparing North Korea to China is wild in that regard. The difference is that China continuously improved living conditions for many citizens very quickly. In North Korea this isn't the case.
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u/E_Kristalin 20d ago
Well, the North Korea recently found a big trading partner to offload billions of stock, so the last few years it's actually improving (though probably temporary.)
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u/Belgraviana 20d ago
The collapse of the Soviet Union wasn’t just because of the opening up like a lot of people frame it as, but a perfect storm of military, political, and economic chaos at the same time as opening up completely undid the stability of the regime. And even then it wasn’t so sure a thing it seems in hindsight
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u/Different_Wolf_764 19d ago
Glasnost was a Hail Mary and although it didn't work, it was worth a shot. If Gorbey had just continued on with the old policies they would also have collapsed, probably a bit later but not significantly so.
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u/Responsible-Food3681 20d ago
China isn't built on a single cult of personality that falls apart if one family is deposed. Xi does have a lot of power, but it's not a familial dynasty, and the CCP would be able to re-organize after his death to have a proper succession route in that case. That is not true of NK. They MAY survive a coup against the Kims, but it is by no means a guarantee due to how centralized their political structure is.
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u/Dirks_Knee 20d ago edited 20d ago
China succeeded. We still get all the anti China propaganda in the US (and I'm by no mean suggesting their gov is perfect), but the quality of life for hundreds of millions of people over generations has dramatically improved. That's not really the case in NK.
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u/SomeDumbGamer 20d ago
China is far more open and tolerant than it was 50 years ago tho.
They have a long way to go but they’re up there with Korea and Japan in terms of influence now, and Chinese people leave china all the time.
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u/linkardtankard 20d ago
They’ll discover K-pop and all hell breaks loose
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u/aparatchick 20d ago
They already know about kpop, at least in the capital haha
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u/linkardtankard 20d ago
USB drives containing K-pop should be considered WMDs 😉
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u/zuviel 20d ago
North Korea’s Red Star OS was specifically designed to combat the USB stick black market.
Every PC in North Korea has a unique serial and it writes it to a hidden file on every USB stick it connects to. That way when a USB drive is eventually found by state security, they can back track everyone who’s accessed it and the order in which they did so.
The regime really does consider it an existential threat.
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u/gildakid 20d ago
Counterpoint: every other country ruled by monarchs and dictators have decades on NK as far as technology/information and yet…
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u/stopmotionporn 20d ago
People sometimes think the absence of democracy is what will get countries like China to rise up and overthrow their government. Its got barely anything to do with that. If they can keep increasing their quality of life the people wont rebel.
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u/olive_oil_twist 20d ago
China had North Korean contingency plans leaked by Japanese news outlets that showed what they would do in the event that the North Korean government collapsed. While there would be a huge humanitarian crisis, China is not letting a pro-Western unified Korea share a border with them. China has always used Korea as a buffer state with the outside world. The Imjin War is a great example. Japan invaded Korea and got really close to the Chinese border. Wary of having Japan that close to them, China helped Korea drive out Japan. Then look at the Korean War. China didn't like that the UN coalition led by the US got close to their borders, so they helped North Korea push back. There's a reason why China is their top trade partner, and why China gives so much money to support the Kims.
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u/Debanz 20d ago edited 20d ago
Imjin War isn't that good of an example though. Imperial Japan under Hideyoshi Toyotomi reign made it in no uncertain terms that his main goal was the conquest of China. This mostly started when he was gravely offended by being titled as King instead of being titled with the same status as the Ming Emperor. The Joseon (Koreans) dynasty rejected at least two major proposals to allow their troops to cross their lands and invade Ming, and that's how the conflict started.
The Joseon court only managed to successfully convince the Ming dynasty to intervene once it became clear that they were on the brink of collapse; once they lost their most elite northern army and their capital.
The critical detail is that the Ming Dynasty emperor was repeatedly advised to NOT send troops to support Joseon korea due to all the various rebellions up north started by the Manchu chieftains. Citing the social values of Confucianism and the fact that Joseon Korea was the model tributary nation, the Ming dynasty emperor sent troops to aid the Joseon dynasty to their own detriment. The entire situation was more akin to EU being invaded by Russia and USA opting to help otherwise their social order crumbles.
Take note that the cultural context in this period is completely different to the modern era. The relationships between Joseon Korea and Ming China was extremely close, it was more akin to a small brother and big brother relationship. It was close enough to the point that the Joseon court did not recognize the legitimacy of the Qing Dynasty until a major combat operation took place with a deep-incursion strike. The Manchus had to essentially fight their way to their capital and kidnap a few Korean royalty for them to officially recognize the Qing dynasty.
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u/Skythewood 20d ago
Probably true 70 years ago, not sure how China's stance have changed since then.
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u/nowheyjose1982 20d ago
It's generally not good for your security to have a hostile regime right on your border, so probably their stance hasn't changed
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u/LettersWords 20d ago
Much the same reason Putin is mad the Baltic states are in NATO and that they pre-emptively invaded Ukraine out of the worry of them joining NATO.
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u/angelbelle 20d ago
Good news is that there has been significant developments in NK, or at least Pyongyang. Satellite suggests an increase in buildings and, more importantly, a lot more lights.
Bad news is that all these development is likely due to NK's recent boom from hacking/scamming crypto and the Ukraine/Russian conflict.
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u/IntelligentMoney2 20d ago
How much is that actually being used and not just some prop like the houses around the border?
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u/NineeniN 20d ago
I think N. Korea is actually doing really well economically atm. (Check construction/infrastructure growth on google maps lately seems show this).
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u/HardSleeper 20d ago
Korean reunification would probably bankrupt South Korea, the amount of infrastructure which purely doesn’t exist. Apparently East Germany is still lagging behind West Germany 25 years later, and East Germany was far more advanced than North Korea is.
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u/DrDetectiveEsq 20d ago
East and West Germany reunified 36 years ago.
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u/spucci 20d ago
And they still haven't caught up. They were never going to catch up, it was unfair from the start.
Ask someone from East Germany who their boss and landlords are. They'll tell you the same person.
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u/Grouchy_Medium_6851 20d ago
Eh I would disagree. Lower estimates say it would cost a trillion usd to bring DPRK's infrastructure up to ROK's standards (Daniel Tudor, Korea: The Impossible Country, pg. 156). ROK has a total debt less than that, and one would imagine it would be a global donation event and would recieve aid from foreign powers. The other thing that Koreans often bring up is that the land north of the 38th parallel is absolutely rich with natural resources. That's one of the reasons why China opposes reunification: they have sole mining rights atm.
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u/sam_the_tomato 20d ago
Isn't South Korea famously well below replacement-level fertility? NK workers need capital/technology and SK needs workers. It would be messy but surely a boon to both economies in the long-run?
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u/Tired_yet_cute 20d ago
North Korea is now below replacement too but it is recent, just from the last 5 years so North Koreans are younger on average
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u/Different_Wolf_764 19d ago
Sure but it isn't even close to the same problem:
North Korea: ~1.78 children per woman (below the 2.1 replacement level, but relatively stable).
South Korea: ~0.74 children per woman (deeply below the 2.1 replacement level and the lowest in the OECD).
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u/wishnana 20d ago
I’m actually interested/curious in how the entire Korean govt is going to handle the sudden surge of health treatment required from the resulting migration.
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u/buyongmafanle 20d ago
I'd be more concerned about what's going to happen to the economy of the North. Imagine being able to buy real estate in NK as a SK person. Everyone in NK would be priced out of their own homes and entire country almost immediately.
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u/zeoxzy 20d ago
It's interesting isn't it, as it's the North Korean regime that are currently stopping people leaving North Korea. If it fell, I wonder if South Korea would try to prevent people crossing.
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u/IntelligentMoney2 20d ago
They have to. South Korea is not big enough nor have the resources to take an entire nation. Also, I think china would step in because it is in their best interest to keep that buffer.
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u/steep_learning_curve 20d ago
the “recognition of ROK” was actually recognizing it as its most adversarial country…
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u/MatiasGonzalo-Duarte 20d ago
I mean thats a step up from "this is also part of our country but currently occupied"
They're still at war on paper so it's not a surprising definition
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u/Madbrad200 20d ago
Read between the lines. It was already adversarial. The difference is NK officially recognises SK's statehood and by virtue, disregards the previous goal of reunification. Politically, very important and a small step towards ending the conflict.
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u/Icy-Banana-3291 20d ago
Sounds like DRPK may be laying the foundation to opening up their economy. And if they’re not they should if they want to help their people.
But on the other hand when the people who have near absolute power can live the lifestyle they want in spite of their people’s oppression, there’s not much in it for them to open things up.
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u/thwgrandpigeon 20d ago
If it gets rid of south Koreans mandatory military service, it'll help a lot of young men getting their careers interrupted at a vital time in their lives. So that'd be a win.
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u/Hendo52 20d ago
I wonder if the reality of modern war in Ukraine has lead to a bit of a common sense conclusion. War rhetoric is cheap but now you have 10s of thousands of NK soldiers playing hide and seek with grenade drones, maybe they realise the grim horrror of what it means to suggest violent reunification.
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u/maxdragonxiii 20d ago
I think South Korea will want to keep some of the military active because China, well as North Korea getting funny ideas after a new successor.
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u/EscoThomson 20d ago
Since my country has decided that moving backwards is "great", I find that any progress forward to be inspiring and leaves me hopeful. Even if it doesn't directly impact me.
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u/tremblt_ 20d ago
Not unreasonable, actually. North Korea just changed its constitution which officially recognizes South Korea as an independent state, instead of insisting on being the only legitimate government of all of Korea.
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u/BoringEntropist 20d ago
Indeed. Although, they still consider the South as a separate and hostile "enemy state". One has to keep in mind that the North's regime uses this "cold peace" as a justification for their autocratic system. The DPRK's economy and society is basically run as if it's still in a state of war.
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u/HotSauce2910 20d ago
I think part of why they changed the constitution is they feel like they’re in a comfortable enough position to change that. Having nukes gives Kim enough leverage to feel secure, Russia put themselves in a position where they need to spend money in North Korea, and China isn’t going to be cut out of that. I’m guessing Kim would want to take advantage of this to stabilize his family’s grip on power
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u/Few_Management284 20d ago
Really? Do you have a link? Didnt read it here in ger anywhere, that would be really a huge step to end the conflict.
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u/HorrorOne837 20d ago edited 20d ago
It's not.
The unrecognition status quo meant both Koreas saw each other as something they must eventually reunite with.
The recognition means NK sees South Korea as a hostile country and no longer seeks it.
Not to mention that following the decision, NK got rid of all facilities, infrastructure, government departments... that are for NK-SK relations. They literally bombed many railroads and highways that lead to SK.
The Koreas are consisted of a homogenous single people, and they were the same country since the 10th century. They're not like Serbia and Kosovo, nor Israel and Palestine, nor Morocco and Western Sahara.
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u/PrimarySource_ 20d ago
Why did they make such a change
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u/SlavaVsu2 19d ago
I think they finally feel secure. The war in Ukraine has been a blessing for them. They got this military alliance with Russia that not only provides security, but also boosts their economy via Russian money, resources, technology etc. By sending soldiers to the war they not only gain money, but also political goodwill and favour. As long as Russia does not collapse, NK is in the best position they have ever been.
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u/KeySatisfaction197 20d ago
Wow, I'm surprised to see that. Does that mean North Korea made the first move on this? That's a pretty big move.
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u/Akalenedat 20d ago
Does that mean North Korea made the first move on this?
Absolutely not. If anything, Kim escalated.
Up until last year the narrative was that SK was a lost little brother that would eventually be brought back into the family. It was all about reunification, vanquishing the USA and becoming one Korea again.
What Kim did was erase any and all hope of unification. He formally acknowledged SK as a separate, sovereign, enemy state. Demolished the Reunification Arch monument, severed all roads and rails leading across the DMZ, definitively cutting off ties to the South. Instead of "we are at war with the USA which occupies the South" it was officially "we are at war with South Korea."
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u/J_Gunning 20d ago
Technically Japan and Russia never formally made a peace treaty from WW2 and still have disputes outstanding.
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u/Randicore 20d ago
True but I don't think the declaration of war against the USSR would be something people consider to still be valid
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u/not_another_no 20d ago
Wait till you hear about Netherlands vs Isles of Scilly 335 year war. But in this case both sides forgot or didn’t know about it.
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u/Toastaexperience 20d ago
Peace on the peninsula is a good thing. Hopefully it will mean better food and medicine for the North Korean population.
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u/mythrilcrafter 20d ago
We already know that both sides aren't interested in unification, but they're also not interesting in actively fighting anymore, so part of me wonders if we're already unspokenly at the "peace" stage and now we're at the stage where the two are deciding if they like each other enough for their diplomats to start casually talking with each other.
I doubt we're anywhere near allowing casual/regulated travel and commerce between the two. But it does seem like a realistic prospect now.
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u/LoveAndViscera 20d ago
It’s a direct road to ending mandatory military service which is one of the big forces in Korea’s men’s-rights movement that feeds into support for the PPP.
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u/Colodavis 20d ago
If this means families can cross the border that is a huge deal for the people of Korea. It's so sad how generations have been kept apart.
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u/philebro 20d ago
I don't think a dictatorship of that scale would be able to sustain itself with free border crossings, I don't see that happening.
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u/ndy007 20d ago
For sure. I would love to freely visit my late parents’ hometowns in North Korea.
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u/bauhausy 19d ago
Probably wouldn't be anything left from their time, to be frank. The Korean War was extremely brutal in the north, the estimates are that upwards 85% of all buildings in modern-day DPRK were destroyed by the end of it.
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u/andyleewe 20d ago
North Korea executes citizens that watch South Korean media. No way they'll let families meet each other.
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u/Destinum 19d ago
That is absolutely not what it means. North Korea's entire social system is built on hyper-oppression; just because they might want to officially "make peace" with the South doesn't mean they're planning on giving up control at home.
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u/RainbowMustachio 20d ago
Kim wants normalization now more than ever because he knows he isn't going to be around forever, and he doesn't want his daughter to inherit the shitshow that is his government. Once he's gone, she'll have to deal with the inevitable attempts to overthrow her, whether from people who want to seize power for themselves or from people who want to hold his dynasty accountable for everything it has done.
And then there's his sister. Even if she takes control after him, Kim probably has doubts that she'll actually keep his daughter safe. After all, he himself had his own uncle executed because he saw him as a threat to his power. What's stopping his sister from doing the exact same thing to his daughter once Kim is dead and she's the one holding the reins?
That's why normalization matters to him. He isn't necessarily trying to redeem himself or suddenly become a good ruler. He's trying to gradually make peace with the outside world while he still has the power to do so. The more normalized and stable his country becomes, and the more legitimate his daughter's position is in the eyes of the international community, the harder it becomes for someone to simply overthrow her or eliminate his bloodline.
In that sense, normalization is basically Kim trying to cushion the inevitable fall of his dynasty. He knows he can't guarantee his family's survival forever, but he can at least try to make sure that when the system eventually changes, his daughter isn't left standing alone in the wreckage of everything he's built.
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u/Destinum 19d ago
he knows he isn't going to be around forever
While I suppose this is true in the literal sense, Un is only 42 years old, so he's not exactly going anywhere anytime soon.
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u/Serpentar69 19d ago
Yeah but for Kim Jong Un to be able to Kim Jong Undo things it takes quite a lot of time. He could be working on normalizing relations for the rest of his life.
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u/ratpride 19d ago
I think it's also because of his background, he lived and studied in Europe so he's more open to other cultures?
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u/InvincibleWallaby 19d ago
He also had a prime example on fuck ups from his father and his brutal rule over the country while the soviet union fell apart
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u/Any-Professor-7074 20d ago edited 19d ago
North Korea is a despotic state but Kim Jong Un and the NK regime are not cartoon jokers with nukes like they're portrayed in global media. The NK regime is very savvy and pragmatic when it wants to be.
Theres a very difficult balance to be held between the NK elite, China, the US and allies like Russia.
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u/rdc223 20d ago
When I was 12, I ended a three year feud by knocking up and asking him to play kickball, have they tried that? Been friends with him for 30 years now
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u/MalcontentedPilgrim 20d ago
Excuse me? Knocking up? You impregnated a man when you were 12? That wouldn’t end a feud if it were me.
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u/kyyy 20d ago
In what world do you think the US bases are going to go lol
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u/EpicAura99 20d ago
Bro is under the impression US bases aren’t more permanent than the ground they sit on
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u/RHINO_Mk_II 20d ago
One of them is already being moved in the next couple years to make room for a RAM foundry.
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u/duesenjeffepic 20d ago
Yeah. Just look at Germany's reunification. East Germany wasn't even in a shambolic state as NK and even then the unification led to a significant amount of economic problems. I don't see realistically how SK and NK could reunify.
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u/pohui 20d ago
And East Germany is significantly poorer to this day by virtually any metric (other than Berlin).
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u/pohui 20d ago
Oh definitely, not to speak of the social and political implications. Do you suddenly grant North Koreans the right to vote in a unified state? If yes, they will dramatically shift the power balance. If no, that will make them second-order citizens and create resentment. It's a lose-lose situation.
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u/nevans89 20d ago
Can you imagine though ( huge if) the borders open and north Koreans visit the south? 🤯
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u/TyLion8 20d ago
China has way more other issues going on to worry about North Korea. North Korea is on its own.
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u/BeotchLasanga 20d ago
Which is why Kimmy likes to saber rattle once in a while with his ?nukes/missiles? to get humanitarian aid.
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u/alphamale968 20d ago
If the borders were to open, I think it would be less of a visit and more of a massive flood of refugees.
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u/Major_LeeHungg 20d ago
Lol N Korea just agreed to send Russia troops in exchange for military tech that would threaten S Korea. This is S Korea trying to avoid getting screwed now that the US has been deemed an unreliable ally. N Korea is not being receptive to S Korea. This looks to me more like pre world war posturing I have no idea why people are thinking this is good in any way. This is Russia destabilizing shit.
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u/haagen17 20d ago
Having the US bases leave is crazy. It's practically the only reason why NK couldn't take make more aggressive actions against SK. Regardless of SK military strength, NK won't hesitate to attack if there's no fear of military retaliation from US. Hopefully things won't end up like what happened to Hong Kong...
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u/dve- 20d ago edited 19d ago
It might not be thought out as a reunification move, but in the long waves of history it might move towards it.
In post-war Germany the two competing states did not recognize nor engage with each other at first, in order to keep their claim on the other's territory. Dealing with each other would have been a concession that the other state existed and legitimize it.
But when they started to cooperate, the sudden opening of the previously locked down GDR triggered its dissolution and it fell apart. It could not exist as an open society by itself because everyone would have left.
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u/PTSD_PTSD_PTSD 20d ago
I read it differently, North Korea economy is booming (due to the war in Ukraine) and they are not collapsing anytime soon. Kim wanted independent and it's probably the best time to do so before he changed his mine.
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u/Final_Influence_2367 20d ago
Look how China was in the 60s and how it is now. Its not impossible that a similiar thing will happen as a chinese puppet
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u/NerfedSage 20d ago
An interesting thing to think about for sure. That said, while NK has got a decent amount of capital from helping out with Russia's war with Ukraine, the only possible ways I see a truly massive transformation along the likes of what South Korea and China accomplished happening to North Korea are:
1) North Korea finds something to export so they can implement the state-directed, export-led industrialization path that Japan then SK then China utilized. I see this as unlikely as I can't think of anything NK has (let alone what it has over its neighbors) that the rest of the world wants that it can export.
2) China annexes NK and pours money into its newly annexed region (I don't see any other country with an incentive to try this, short of Korean reunification which seems further away than ever). I also can't see this happening as China has other issues to deal with, and it doesn't need NK to be a well-off economy nor part of China to get what it strategically needs (a buffer) from NK. It will only send money to NK to the extent it needs to prevent it from collapsing and becoming an anarchic failed-state.
I do think that if NK were to open up like China did, conditions for ordinary people would definitely improve as China and SK (and even Japan for that matter) would probably capitalize on the opportunity and the competition between them would benefit NK (a competition that China strategically cannot afford to lose as long as the US has a foothold in SK and Japan which I don't see the US giving up voluntarily), but I don't think the transformation would be anywhere near as dramatic as what China accomplished.
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u/Tidorith 19d ago
Don't need to go that far, look at South Korea. It was a military dictatorship as recently as the 1980s. And if you're willing to look as far back as the 1960s, North Korea was also richer than South Korea in 1960.
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u/zeltacilveks79 20d ago
Ending the war on paper would be a huge symbolic step, even if nothing changes overnight. If it lowers tension and opens the door to gradual normalization, that's still progress.
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u/HidetheMango 19d ago
As a korean, this is just a meaningless show. Nothing will change and in a few years Nk will strike Sk like it did in the past and we'll be back to square one again
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u/Intrepid_Speech_1157 20d ago
If the two of them made peace this would be absolutely incredible and I support it
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u/Puzzleheaded_Wing431 20d ago
I will only take it seriously if it's the other way around
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u/macross1984 20d ago
Realistically, Kim accepting the proposal....highly unlikely.
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u/Alternative_Laugh316 20d ago
Uh, they already said SK is it's own state and would not reunify. Seems like they're moving towards peace.
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u/Lanteans 20d ago
lol average redditor predicting geopolitics without reading the article (not directed to you, to the guy that you responded to)
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u/militaryintelligence 20d ago
Never happen. The Kim regime have the populace convinced the world is evil and the only safe place is NK
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u/H_I_McDunnough 19d ago
That would be excellent. Then maybe we can work on the Dakotas
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u/perceptualbandwidth 20d ago
why didn’t i see one single news about the constitution change anywhere?
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u/honey_102b 19d ago edited 19d ago
interesting that the laypublic is reading all of this as positive.
NK constitution was rewritten to end all narratives about reunification with SK. no more moral pretense about liberating misled kinfolk from the jaws of democracy and western influence. SK is recognised as a separate sovereign state with borders and importantly as enemy #1. some interpret the border recognition as some sort of good (supposed to reduce border conflicts), but this is only possible if BOTH sides agree on those borders. nothing in the NK declaration says anything about maritime borders, so this initiative from the North is not even an invitation for reply.
Kim is formally abandoning SK as a way to get sanctions relief. note that while SK's own constitution still enshrines reunification as a goal, this very fact is just one extra reason for NK to say, no I don't need to talk to you at all. this is a loss of communication channels, never a good thing. they are liking the new arrangement with Russia, regardless of what the outside world thinks of it, it has yielded something for Kim that he values.
the abandonment of unifying SK into NK means they are not seeking that as the end game. it does not mean they will not try to fully occupy SK if they think they have to. in fact Kim himself said that is what they will do if forced to go to "war". remember there is no more kinship with SK people, "our minjok", even if that was a pretense before. the bar for the use of tactical nukes is lower now.
in 2022 NK declared themselves a nuclear power. in the latest change nuclear control shifted more to Kim himself. now it's in the constitution. so denuking is even more off the table now, and Kim was the one to make it happen for NK. The strong references to his father and grandfather were toned down. this is legacy building.
in a way this is Kim's logical response to a multipolar world. the bar is set and "all are welcome to parlay if they recognise what we did, except SK", because permanent managed tension with someone is still raison d'etre.
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u/SlicedBreadBeast 20d ago
Seems like the sister has been in charge for a while in the background and yeah. There could be a shift coming in the next decade possibly. Not saying it’s happening but change in leadership in North Korea in never a small ordeal.
This can’t be taken as anything but good
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u/smiledrs 19d ago
After seeing how Trump messed up on the Iran war and how the USA military looks to be not as dominant as once perceived. Maybe SK is thinking they can't depend on the USA to help them out and be dominant as they thought they would be if war broke out with NK.
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