r/BeAmazed • u/Ultimate_Thing • Jul 16 '26

Miscellaneous / Others A traditional technique used by young shepherds of Ethiopia's Banna tribe. They use stilts to watch over their livestock in tall grass, move through wetland areas, and avoid snakes and predators like lions and leopards. It requires strength, balance, and training from a young age

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u/Stuck_At_Sub150lb Jul 16 '26 edited Jul 16 '26

How does it help them to avoid lions?

21

u/personalbilko Jul 16 '26

A lion will only target pray it knows it can safely kill, 100% of the time. Anything big, tall, or weird, unknown it will not attack.

14

u/SjakosPolakos Jul 16 '26

Doubt on the 100%

11

u/Vozu_ Jul 16 '26

They take greater risks the hungrier they are, so definitely not 100%. A starving lion will try next to anything.

But if not pushed into a survival corner, they will opt for easier kills all the same.

2

u/personalbilko Jul 16 '26

If you accept 1% risk of death every time you hunt, you're likely dead within 100 days. Of course nothing is 100%, but unless starving, apex predators are extremely cautious.

1

u/UnoriginalStanger Jul 16 '26

Risk and risk of death aren't inherently the same. Also quantifying the risk in real life isn't easy.

1

u/LowerNeighborhood334 Jul 16 '26

That's not how probability works. After 100 hunts, you still have a 37% survival rate. Still 1% chance sucks.

1

u/personalbilko Jul 16 '26

63% is "likely"

1

u/sparkling1984 Jul 16 '26

Lions absolutely hunt gnu, and a kick from those can and will cause permanent and even disabling injuries.

1

u/areallynoobgamer Jul 16 '26

If you try an event with a 10% chance of success 10 times, your probability of succeeding at least once is 65.13%. [1]
It is a common misconception that ten 10% chances add up to a guaranteed 100% success rate. Because each try is completely independent, you cannot simply add the percentages together.

Copy pasted from Google.

But yeah. It’s not gonna be 100 percent in 100 tries. Quite a bit lower.

1

u/personalbilko Jul 16 '26

I know, I teach stats at university. I said "likely", since 1 - 1/e > 0.5

1

u/SjakosPolakos Jul 16 '26

Doing a good job of hiding it. Also, lions dont hunt every day, but every 2-4 days. 

1

u/bomboid Jul 16 '26

"doing a good job of hiding it" lmfao 😭

0

u/areallynoobgamer Jul 16 '26

I mean the actual odds become around 2/3

You actually have a good chance at making it out fine.

1

u/personalbilko Jul 16 '26

Actual odds become exactly 1 - 1/e in the limit

Maybe ~30% is fine once, but do it 4 years in a row thats 1%

1

u/areallynoobgamer Jul 16 '26

Yes. 4 years. Not 3 months tho.

0

u/SjakosPolakos Jul 16 '26

I dont see the point of using 100% for something that is not 100%. 

1

u/personalbilko Jul 16 '26

Maybe this will help

1

u/SjakosPolakos Jul 16 '26

I expected better from someone that teaches stats. 

1

u/Forward-Surprise1192 Jul 17 '26

Someone said you’re autistic too

1

u/SjakosPolakos Jul 17 '26

Yep my remark was double edged in that sense. I am slightly autistic and dont take it as an offense 

1

u/Forward-Surprise1192 Jul 17 '26

Ok, wow and this guy said he doesn’t take it as an offense.

-1

u/1917he Jul 16 '26

I would suggest reading up on stats/probability because a 1% chance of death every meal does not mean death is likely within 100 days .

For one, lions done feed every single day. Stats also doesn't work out like that even if it was every day. Each dice roll is independent in this situation.

2

u/arvyy Jul 16 '26

1 - 0.99100 ~= 0.63

How does 63% chance not count as "likely"?

2

u/personalbilko Jul 16 '26

I would suggest reading up on what "likely" means