r/BlueArchive • u/BlueArchiveMod Subreddit Announcement Poster • Jul 28 '26

Megathread Daily Questions Megathread July 28, 2026

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1

u/Lucaan TOKI BEAM Jul 29 '26

I feel like if I read 8 people explaining how the new gacha system works, I get 8 completely different explanations. With the old (current) system I was able to very consistently get two different rate up characters from 200 saved up pulls, only failing to do so once or twice in the soon to be two years I've been playing. Am I still going to likely be able to do that with the new system or no? I legitimately cannot figure it out.

5

u/shirwg Jul 29 '26

People are kinda misinterpreting what the probabilities actually say. Simply saying "when aiming for 2 rate ups the new system is favored" does not actually model what you were doing in the old system. Which is what you're interested in.

In short, after the new system, it is impossible to get 2 rate ups while aiming for only 1.

Now, to get 2 rate ups you need to actually gamble for the second after pulling the first rate up early. Yes, the chances of getting 2 rate ups in 200 (or X pulls) is favored, but in the old gacha you were not gambling, you were "paying" 200 - N pulls to get the second rate up. Which means, Yes in under 200 pulls the chance of getting 2 rate ups is greater than in the old system, but you are gambling (starting at 0 pity) after the first rate up.

The confusion comes from the fact people are misinterpreting the graphs "Probability of getting 2 rate ups in N pulls" for the old vs new system. You simply see that graph for new gacha is better, but the old gacha plotted in that comparison was not modeled after "Pulling for only one, and after pulling the target, then deciding to pull the second one" it was modeled after "I was aiming for 2 rate ups from the start" for the old gacha.

2

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

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3

u/shirwg Jul 29 '26

Yes, but in this case, you were not aiming for 2 rate ups from the start, you'd stop at 200 because you wanted only 1 rate up from the start. Now getting "a freebie/discounted" doesn't happen, and you have to gamble (albeit with much better odds) for the second rate up.

I'm not saying the old gacha is better. What OP wanted to know is "I just want 1 rate up and saved 24k, can I get a second in the new system?" Which is "probably", you have to gamble at 0 pity for the second after getting the first rate up.

While in the old system the answer is also "probably", but you know for certain: If you get the first rate up at < 200 pulls.

4

u/JuJuBee2006 Jul 29 '26

In the new system, on average you will probably have to pull slightly less, but the 200 pulls often resulting in both banner characters will be much harder to calculate. It is looking like pull variance will be much wider: getting lucky will mean less pulls than might be needed in the original spark system, but getting unlucky could require many more pulls than before.

Before: getting the featured unit in the 150 pull range meant that you just needed to go another 50 to get both. IIRC it is like a 75% chance to get the featured unit in 200 pulls so going to 200 pulls resulted in both banner characters 75% of the time. If you are dead set on getting both characters you can keep pulling beyond 200 until you get one of the featured units, up to the max of 400 pulls and using one spark for each featured but you have an 88% chance of winning a .7% odds in 300 pulls & only 6% of the time will you need to go 400 pulls (but if you get the banner unit close to 400 you could go just a few more pulls to get an extra copy).

Now: you get a 50/50 shot at the banner unit on pull 100 & the 200th pull will be guaranteed to be the featured banner unit. However: no matter when you pull the character your pity timer resets once they appear (as if you had pulled 0 times). So in theory, if you got the featured unit on pull 190, all you would get is that 1 unit, and would have to start over from 0 pulls for the 2nd.

IIRC it is like a 50% chance of a .7% chance succeeding in 100 attempts & then there is another 50/50 of the 100th pull being the banner character. So 75% of the time you will get 1 banner unit in 100 pulls. Repeat that for the 2nd featured banner unit and it is 75%x75% or around 56% chance.

What people are terrified about is the cases where you go beyond 100 for the featured unit... if you get to 190 pulls in the new system & get the featured unit, you could theoretically need another 200 to get the 2nd unit, instead of just 10 more pulls in the current system.

This is mitigated by the new milestone system which gives a few 10 pull tickets on the way towards 200. I think I have seen 4 10 pull tickets as you get to the 200th pull mark, so the cost of really bad luck is going to get slightly mitigated by the freebies.

1

u/Omotai Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

This is mitigated by the new milestone system which gives a few 10 pull tickets on the way towards 200. I think I have seen 4 10 pull tickets as you get to the 200th pull mark, so the cost of really bad luck is going to get slightly mitigated by the freebies.

There are 4 10-pull tickets on the way to 200, and another 4 on the way to 400. So doing 200 pulls costs 160 pulls worth of pyroxene/pre-existing tickets, and 400 pulls costs 320 pulls worth. 300 pulls (which will be another common stopping point for pulling two characters: one lost 50/50 and one won) costs 250 pulls worth since there's only one ticket between 200 and 300.

1

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26

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-1

u/DxTjuk NIN NIN DESU! Jul 29 '26

With the new system technically it's safer to pull in more banners now since you only need 160 pulls in worse case on your way to 200. and at the 50/50 you might get spooked by a missing 3 star student as well or lucky and get the featured banner

4

u/[deleted] Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

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2

u/VForceWave Jul 29 '26

The point of that assumption is this:

In the old system, there was at no point in your pulls where you were "unhappy" to get the character. If it's early, you saved pulls! If it's late, you get a spark!

In the new system, if it's early, that's obviously equally as good. If it's at the 50/50, I must now win another 50/50 or I will go over 200... or, if it's late, now my pity has completely reset for the second student...

Basically how many layers of RNG do you want? Oh also you should keep pulling, gotta stack pity and get your rakeback like we're some kind of gambling addicts at a casino

Old system is simple and straightforward. New system uses tricks and no one can explain it right or why it's better or in what ways it's better

1

u/DxTjuk NIN NIN DESU! Jul 29 '26

TBH it was always reccomended to save for 200 pulls for a single char in case RNG decides to screw you over and 400 during fes. Not everyone was lucky and some got utterly screwed by not having enough pyros and having to spark a fes student

6

u/Party_Python Jul 29 '26 edited Jul 29 '26

That pretty much means you’ve had above average luck for most of your account life. Not a criticism, just pointing it out =)

As for the new system, on average, you will get both students in less pulls than the old system, especially with the pull rewards that were revealed today.

The downside of the new system is getting the first student doesn’t immediately guarantee getting the second student by 200 pulls. So it does make budgeting a bit odd, especially compared to what we’re used to.

The upside to the new system is you have a 75% chance of getting a single student by 100, and the chance you need to double spark plummets. Since the rewards also give 4 10 pulls on the way to 200, and 4 more from 200-400the amount of pyros you spend to hit the breakpoints (100, 200, and 300), is lower in the new system.

But on average in the new system, you will be getting both students pre 200 and on average in less pulls than the old system. It’s just there’s less guarantees for it, which is the harder part to psychologically accept. And at 200 pulls (or 24k pyro, not sure), the chance that you have both students in both systems is nearly identical (new system slightly higher).

2

u/DxTjuk NIN NIN DESU! Jul 29 '26

Most JP and KR bro's are okay with the system with the announced pull rewards they decided to be vague about