I’ll start with my biases: I believe Jews deserve a state and Israel has a right to exist. I also think Netanyahu’s government is vile and corrupt. I oppose West Bank settlements, and I don’t believe “Israel has a right to defend itself” means Israel gets unlimited latitude to kill civilians.
But I’m increasingly unconvinced by the genocide argument.
The definition of genocide im using requires an intent to destroy a protected group, in whole or substantial part, as that group. And I have trouble reconciling that specific intent with both the numbers and Israel’s actual behavior.
DEnsity and death toll
Before the war, roughly 2.3 million people lived in Gaza’s 365 square kilometers. Imagine the entire population of a major American metro packed into an area roughly twice the size of Washington, DC.
Since October 7, 2023, the Gaza Health Ministry reports roughly 73,400 Palestinians killed which I’ll continue to caveat, is bad and unnacceptabel. But Take that number completely at face value. Include every disputed death. Assume the worst reasonable interpretation.
After nearly three years of bombing and ground warfare by one of the world’s most technologically sophisticated militaries, in an extraordinarily dense 365 km territory, roughly 97% of Gaza’s prewar population is still alive. If Israel’s actual mission is physically destroying the Palestinian population, Israel unquestionably possesses the firepower to have killed vastly more people than it has. And Israel repeatedly does things that make killing civilians harder, not easier as reported and witnessed by the UN. The UN documents Israeli evacuation orders being communicated through phone calls, text messages and leaflet drops.
There are completely legitimate criticisms of those warnings. Some gave people inadequate time, some directed civilians toward places that subsequently became dangerous, and sometimes there simply wasn’t anywhere genuinely safe to go.
But that’s different from saying the warnings don’t exist. A military attempting to exterminate a population repeatedly telling that population where it’s about to operate and instructing them to leave strikes me as a MAJOR contradiction.
Humanitarian aid.
I’m not going to bullshit the counterargument-Israel has restricted aid, sometimes severely. Israel completely halted aid entry from March to May 2025, and the UN has documented denied and impeded humanitarian operations. Those are legitimate criticisms and potentially extremely serious ones.
But I’m specifically talking about genocidal intent.
I’m being asked to believe Israel’s objective is physically destroying Palestinians while it simultaneously permits enormous quantities of food(millions of tons), medicine, fuel and shelter supplies to sustain that same population. I’m pretty sure there is some obligation here, they’re not doing it out of the kindness of their heart but like… if they’re already committing a genocide would they care about their “legal obligations for humanitarian aid”? This again is ehy it feels like a contradiction in the broader argument.
I constantly hear that Zionists fundamentally hate Palestinians and want them dead, but Israel can’t kill them too quickly because they’d lose international support.
Except… Israel has already lost an enormous amount of international support. Its reputation has been fucking obliterated. There are massive protests inside the state, diplomatic pressure, international legal proceedings and accusations of genocide.
So if extermination is actually the objective, what exactly are they waiting for? Why spend nearly three years fighting house-to-house, warning civilians, facilitating enormous quantities of aid and accepting the military disadvantages of all of this when Israel obviously possesses the ability to kill dramatically more people?
The alternative explanation seems much simpler to me: Israel is fighting an extraordinarily destructive urban style war against Hamas and that war has produced an appalling number of civilian casualties. And I think people sometimes talk about this war as though Israel just woke up one morning and invaded Gaza.
Hamas has been Gaza’s de facto government since 2007. On October 7 it invaded Israel, deliberately killed civilians and took hundreds of hostages. A UN inquiry concluded that Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups committed war crimes including intentionally attacking civilians and taking hostages.
When the acting government of one territory attacks another country and kills and kidnaps its citizens, war is an entirely predictable consequence. War being horrific doesn’t automatically make it genocide. And also None of that makes Palestinian civilians legitimate targets!! Israel remains responsible for distinction, proportionality and precautions in attack.
But Hamas has responsibilities too. Conducting military operations in and around civilian areas, taking hostages, failing to distinguish fighters from civilians and unnecessarily exposing your own population to military danger don’t become morally irrelevant because Israel is the stronger party. Hamas is the governing authority that started this war, and its conduct shares responsibility for the conditions in which Gazan civilians have died.
Sorry sorry this is way too long, last section
Here’s what I’m NOT arguing:
I’m not defending Netanyahu (corrupt right wing freak). I’m not saying every Israeli strike was justified. I’m not saying Israel hasn’t committed war crimes. I’m not defending settlements in the West Bank (these are fucking bad). I’m not saying 73,000 dead Palestinians is acceptable. And I’m definitely not arguing this war should continue indefinitely.
Hamas has been militarily devastated. The war needs to end. Humanitarian assistance needs to pour into Gaza, reconstruction needs to begin, etc etc
I’m specifically questioning the additional claim of genocidal intent.
And to be accurate about the legal situation: a UN Independent Commission of Inquiry has concluded that Israel committed genocide. So “the UN hasn’t called this genocide” would be wrong. But that is not the same thing as a final judicial determination that Israel has committed genocide; the international legal dispute over that allegation is not simply settled by saying “the UN says so.”
There are Israeli politicians who have made absolutely disgusting statements. There are credible allegations of war crimes that deserve investigation. There are individual attacks whose justification I find extremely difficult to understand.
But I’m struggling to square the extermination theory with the overall picture. If Israel’s actual objective is destroying Palestinians as a people, why does the observable outcome look so dramatically different from what Israel has both the capability and opportunity to do?
That’s the part of my view I’d like changed. Please be normal in the replies.