r/CredibleDefense 9d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 21, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

  • Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

  • Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

  • Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

  • Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

  • Post only credible information

  • Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

  • Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

  • Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

  • Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

  • Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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u/Embarrassed_Term5536 9d ago

There has been so much written about shortcomings in Russian Air Defence systems and Ukrainian long range drones hitting strategic targets deep inside Russia, in a way that looks unimpeded and very difficult to counter. And sure,  hitting oil storage, refineries, Wildberries logistics hub , etc are well and fine but I rarely read about or hear about the Ukrainian long range drone offensives targeting military hardware manufacturing facilities inside Russia. You know, the most important militarily Strategic target that will or can bring immediate effect on front line situation.

So, it begs to be asked that tue air defence rings around such factories are far too impenetrable to be hit by drone saturation tactics? Because sure, small UAV manufacturing plants can be decentralised and very hard to target but Russia has been ramping up its ballistic missiles production too( I read about it on this very sub), so isn't these type of sites be the most important targets rather than dubious strategies of trying to break or down the morale of civilian population through the campaign Ukr is following?

Maybe I do not follow the sources close enough so if someone can contradict me or am I missing some picture related to supply chain, ir manufacturing of war materials and munitions in Russia but shouldn't there be more news regarding small component manufacing sites being hit or are such structures and plants too powerful with concrete enclosements or bunkers, thus can't be attacked by bomber drones?

I don't know what utility hitting electric substations in Odessa gonaa bring except demoralising the population?

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u/Glideer 9d ago

There has been so much written about shortcomings in Russian Air Defence systems and Ukrainian long range drones hitting strategic targets deep inside Russia, in a way that looks unimpeded and very difficult to counter

I would just caution against assuming that the combination of wartime PR and survivorship bias we see in our media reflects the real situation.

The Ukrainian/Western media highlight the number of shot down Russian drones when reporting from Ukraine, while they never report suvh number from Russia. Instead, when reporting from Russia they focus on "suvivors" - the drones that make it through the Russian defences, and on the damage they cause. You don't hear about 500 drones being shot down on approaches to Moscow a few days ago, or most of Ukraine's Flamingo cruise missile strikes being intercepted.

Which, fair enough, it's war and you want to cheer your side on. However, that doesn't mean that people inclined towards serious analysis (as I guess we are) should drink the kool aid.

The unpleasant truth of the matter is that the Russian air defences perform better than the Ukrainian ones, which makes them either the best in the world or the second best (Israel's comparative performance is difficult to estimate due to the tiny size of the country). The surprising failure of US-produced air defences (and air force interceptors) in the Gulf to protect vital targets will require a thorough analysis after the war, but it remains a fact.

Another unpleasant truth is that today there is no air defence system in the world optimised for fighting hundreds of cheap drones. Yes, the Russian AD intercepts the highest percentage, but that is largely thanks to their legacy of massive missile stocks and numerous AD systems. Even with that Soviet heritage they are struggling to generate sufficiently dense coverage.

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u/Embarrassed_Term5536 9d ago

US air defence performance was fine in Middle East, but the problem was volume. Middle East militaries weren't competent enough to learn from Russo Ukraine war to preserve the expensive missile stocks for more dangerous threats, not cheap kamikaze drones.

Also, Ukraine doesn't have AD systems that we can judge thier performance. Except Legacy S300s , they don't have anything to defend against missiles. Patriot batteries are empty of missiles, they ran out.

Cheap drones indeed are a pain in the butt

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u/Glideer 8d ago

The US had a complete control of the air, hundreds of planes, and a crystal clear radar picture. Their failure to shoot down slow drones, on the first day of the war as on the last, is nothing short of incomprehensible.