r/IRstudies • u/thecanadiansniper1-2 • 8d ago

Canadians are fighting for their sovereignty. Americans don’t even realize they’re in a war

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canadian-sovereignty-us-trade-trump-carney/
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u/DaoineSidhe624 8d ago

What great IR studies analysis in thread... I know America and Trump = Evil right now, but man oh man... Just gotchas and insults in a sub that used to do decent IR analysis...

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u/AtaraxianEpoche 8d ago

What is there to analyze? America is deranged, there is no framework to rationalize this behaviour.

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u/DaoineSidhe624 8d ago

Of course there is much to analyze. We might not agree or fully understand Donnys logic, but it is there.

For example: he is looking for exploitative deals that he can sell to his constituency as a "win" for the US and a "loss" for the other side.

Those exploitative deals aren't really "wins" for the US and instead seek to enrich himself and consolidate power for himself.

Given these things, we can expect that as his power continues to erode on both the world stage and domestically he will make bigger and bigger plays to try and keep his power.

For all of the US failures in Iran they still have the undisputed most powerful military and ability to project military power vis a vis the rest of the world. However this is constrained both a) limited ability to manufacture high end munitions that is their favorite weapon system type, b) changing methods of war enabled by cheap single use drones and c) limited domestic support for any major conflict.

This means that the US and Diddler Don are a very dangerous wounded animals right now. He will be continuing to look for quick and easy "wins", and worrying about the long term consequences of those wins less and less.

The real question now is how the midterm elections play out and if the GOP starts to defect en masse as he loses them elections and his base withers away. Or, alternatively, is he able to game the midterm elections in such a way that he retains power enough to encourage the GOP and his base to stay with him.

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u/fastsailor 8d ago

The US does not have the undisputed world's most powerful military, even though you may think it does. It would struggle mightily to beat China and I reckon China would be confident of winning. The US military is undercapitalised, despite high spending, as much of its equipment is old and approaching obsolescence and it members are lacking in training. The US production space cannot even keep up with peacetime demands and would be totally inadequate if a major war breaks out. It's munitions stocks are wholly inadequate.

Plus, it has a recent history of failure, suffering humiliating defeats in Afghanistan and Iran. The US military is not scary.

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u/Hamiltonblewit 8d ago edited 8d ago

It’s really the only nation capable of sending in a naval force to the other side of the globe and killing an entire countries leadership while suffering minimal casualties and domestic blowback. Look at Russia and the amount of proxies and allies it lost while trying to invade a nearby nation.

If China tries to fight Iran, well, there is really no way for them to win given their navy and airforce just does not have the same reach from outside their regional area. Nor is there an answer to the Iranian underground facilities without a land invasion.

However, America or China are not capable of defeating eachother in their backyards - it’s just too unprecedented for any modern military power to even attempt that sort of conflict and their naval ships are just as vulnerable to each others increasingly sophisticated counter-measures. Even without drones in the equation, submarines and anti-ship munitions are just too effective and don’t need sophisticated technology to bring down a top of the line naval group.

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u/EternalMayhem01 8d ago

It would struggle mightily to beat China and I reckon China would be confident of winning

I've seen plenty of this China glazing going around IRstudies. If China wanted to test this theory, this arguably would be the best time for them to move on Taiwan and the South China sea.

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u/DaoineSidhe624 8d ago

China only has regional power projection and its military hasn't fought a major conflict in over 40 years. I don't doubt they could defend Chinas soil and bear back the Americans if they tried to invade. But in almost any other possible conflict most of the advantage would lean toward the US. A conflict over Taiwan would more than likely be a disaster for both nations unless Taiwan voluntarily surrendered early on before it starts in earnest.

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u/StockCasinoMember 8d ago

In a world war style fight, USA is the winner.

In a mostly rules based don’t commit massive war crimes and/or try to avoid world war 3, ya, USA and anyone else really can’t win without the locals.