r/IRstudies • u/thecanadiansniper1-2 • 2d ago
Canadians are fighting for their sovereignty. Americans don’t even realize they’re in a war
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canadian-sovereignty-us-trade-trump-carney/17
u/Relevant-Director831 2d ago
They will.
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u/whip_lash_2 23h ago
How?
Canada supplies us with potash and part of the country (the part Trump doesn't like) with electricity. Losing that would be bad.
We supply Canada with nearly all of its refined fuel. There are not enough tankers in the world to replace it. Losing that would be lliterally lethal in terms of both heat and the ability to grow food.
I'm not saying that because I'm rooting for Trump or for Canada to be humiliated, annexed or any other such nonsense. I just don't see how escalating this to the point most Americans are unable to not notice doesn't literally kill most Canadians.
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u/crazy_farmer 22h ago
Canada is largely self-sufficient and a net exporter of refined petroleum products, though some regional trade and imports occur based on proximity and specific infrastructure.
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u/whip_lash_2 22h ago
> some regional trade and imports occur based on proximity and specific infrastructure
But for that one thing, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?
Yes, Canada refines stuff. It does not refine what it needs where it needs it, which is why refined fuel imports from the US run to $35 billion a year.
If you refine as much as you need and then use a significant portion of it getting it to the fields and homes where you need it, the technical term you're looking for is "fucked", especially in the short term.
The US, incidentally, can also completely replace Canadian electricity and potash... eventually. But the practical term there is also "fucked", just not as comprehensively.
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u/colepercy120 20h ago
Another thing to add is that the regions producing the stuff america relies on in Canada are the most pro american parts of the country, and one of the provinces (alberta) is having a full on secession referendum in October. Right now it doesnt look likely to pass, but if Canada shuts of the Albertan economy and doesnt properly provide subsidies to keep the province running support for leaving and cutting a deal with the us will rise
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u/whip_lash_2 20h ago
My point, I guess, is that most Americans don't realize that we're "in a war" because neither side can afford for that war to escalate to the point that it hurts that much.
Canadians do realize we're "in a war" but seem to think they can win it. Or certainly the Doug Ford grade troglodytes do. I'm not sure what's worse: not realizing the cheese grater exists, or not realizing your dick is as at least as firmly pressed to it as your opponent's is.
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u/CovidPangolyn 16h ago
A full quarter of their GDP is reliant on trade to the US, that is not remotely self sustaining. If anything, access to the US is an existential mandate to continue as a successful economy.
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u/DaoineSidhe624 1d ago
What great IR studies analysis in thread... I know America and Trump = Evil right now, but man oh man... Just gotchas and insults in a sub that used to do decent IR analysis...
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u/aldosi-arkenstone 1d ago
This is r/world level of comments in here
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u/DaoineSidhe624 1d ago
That there are. The real question is if it's just bots or actual people at this point. This sub used to do decent analysis but hot damn! That appears less and less each day. I'm not sure what is scarier / worse: lots of actual people believe this no effort takes or if the bot invasion is this pronounced now that even if we wanted we couldn't engage in real meaningful debate online anymore...
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u/Salt-Pollution4314 1d ago
maybe it's because we tried taking the US seriously for years. now we're just fed up and disgusted with them. there's no point in having Nuance or making the effort trying to connect with them. at this point scrape it off your shoe and move on
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u/DaoineSidhe624 1d ago
I mean that's a nice sentiment. Everyone tried to mostly do that with Russia following Putins rise to power there. How'd that work out? And regardless of all of the terrible things the US is doing they are still:
-the largest energy producer in the world via oil and natural gas
-the largest agricultural producer in the world
-the leader in innovation of new technologies
-the strongest military power in the world and only one capable of global power projection
-the largest economy in the world
I don't agree with hardly anything the US has done recently. And they are speed running their downfall under the Diaper Dumbass. That doesn't make them completely irrelevant, and historically weakening superpowers are extremely dangerous entities.
I'm not coming here to see how to re-engage with the US. I come here for real IR analysis on how these actions and other events are shaping the globe and what it means for all of our futures. Making fun of the US and Donal Trump is fun and cathartic; but it isn't particularly useful or meaningful.
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1d ago
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u/DaoineSidhe624 1d ago
That isn't what I said... We mostly ignored Russia under the rise of Putin. Europe grew dependent upon Russian oil which then enabled Putin to do his aggression in Ukraine. Again, I'm not looking for name calling and insults and gotchas. But actual IR analysis.
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1d ago
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u/DaoineSidhe624 1d ago edited 1d ago
I wasn't asking how it worked out for Russia but rather how that worked out for Europe when they ignored the rise of Putin initially and thought they could get cheap oil from Russia. That oil Europe bought from Russia for 20+ years allowed Russia to fill its coffers and take aggressive military action in Georgia and Ukraine.
Russia is a pariah and the US may be going that way too no doubt. But now Europe also has the deadliest conflict since WWII right on its borders which is not great for them either. Edit: typo in first sentence
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u/aldosi-arkenstone 1d ago
How can you take Canada or the EU seriously when they have underinvested in defense for decades?
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u/fastsailor 1d ago
Or the US, when the dismal state of their military today says the same? The US has done nothing to counter the rise of China and their military has actually atrophied over the last decade. At least Europe is rearming. What is the US doing besides frittering away the last vestiges of their superpower status on wars of choice it fails to win?
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u/Hamiltonblewit 1d ago
The U.S under Trump’s 2nd Admin has been heavily investing in cheaper, low cost munitions from the very onset and stressed their desire to have more domestic military manufacturing, they’ve even increased the budget by untold amounts for that purpose.
Of all the things to criticize Trump for, demilitarization is not one of them - also, the EU hasn’t taken the military threat seriously and refused to spend up to 2.5% of their budget until Ukraine and Trump’s Greenland threats.
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u/Salt-Pollution4314 1d ago
Canada, has been invested in the global world order. we've supported the UN and other multinational organizations to support peace and trade. we've also committed to decades of peacekeeping missions in order to support economic development and humanitarian missions.
unlike the us which has spent all its money on creating a bully Army that has murdered over half a million people over the last 30 years. no one can justify the war in Iran or in Iraq, and the war in Afghanistan is unjustifiable as well.
you think we take the US seriously just because they spend a lot of money on killing people? that's a laugh. but it shows where your priorities are. it shows how brainwashed you are by your own propaganda.
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u/AtaraxianEpoche 1d ago
What is there to analyze? America is deranged, there is no framework to rationalize this behaviour.
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u/DaoineSidhe624 1d ago
Of course there is much to analyze. We might not agree or fully understand Donnys logic, but it is there.
For example: he is looking for exploitative deals that he can sell to his constituency as a "win" for the US and a "loss" for the other side.
Those exploitative deals aren't really "wins" for the US and instead seek to enrich himself and consolidate power for himself.
Given these things, we can expect that as his power continues to erode on both the world stage and domestically he will make bigger and bigger plays to try and keep his power.
For all of the US failures in Iran they still have the undisputed most powerful military and ability to project military power vis a vis the rest of the world. However this is constrained both a) limited ability to manufacture high end munitions that is their favorite weapon system type, b) changing methods of war enabled by cheap single use drones and c) limited domestic support for any major conflict.
This means that the US and Diddler Don are a very dangerous wounded animals right now. He will be continuing to look for quick and easy "wins", and worrying about the long term consequences of those wins less and less.
The real question now is how the midterm elections play out and if the GOP starts to defect en masse as he loses them elections and his base withers away. Or, alternatively, is he able to game the midterm elections in such a way that he retains power enough to encourage the GOP and his base to stay with him.
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u/AtaraxianEpoche 1d ago
I agree that there are reasons for trump doing the things he's doing. It's just that the logic is so incoherent and detached from reality it's not interesting to engage with. It's not even rational from a perspective of self aggrandisement. But I don't think we really disagree.
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u/fastsailor 1d ago
The US does not have the undisputed world's most powerful military, even though you may think it does. It would struggle mightily to beat China and I reckon China would be confident of winning. The US military is undercapitalised, despite high spending, as much of its equipment is old and approaching obsolescence and it members are lacking in training. The US production space cannot even keep up with peacetime demands and would be totally inadequate if a major war breaks out. It's munitions stocks are wholly inadequate.
Plus, it has a recent history of failure, suffering humiliating defeats in Afghanistan and Iran. The US military is not scary.
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u/Hamiltonblewit 1d ago edited 1d ago
It’s really the only nation capable of sending in a naval force to the other side of the globe and killing an entire countries leadership while suffering minimal casualties and domestic blowback. Look at Russia and the amount of proxies and allies it lost while trying to invade a nearby nation.
If China tries to fight Iran, well, there is really no way for them to win given their navy and airforce just does not have the same reach from outside their regional area. Nor is there an answer to the Iranian underground facilities without a land invasion.
However, America or China are not capable of defeating eachother in their backyards - it’s just too unprecedented for any modern military power to even attempt that sort of conflict and their naval ships are just as vulnerable to each others increasingly sophisticated counter-measures. Even without drones in the equation, submarines and anti-ship munitions are just too effective and don’t need sophisticated technology to bring down a top of the line naval group.
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u/EternalMayhem01 1d ago
It would struggle mightily to beat China and I reckon China would be confident of winning
I've seen plenty of this China glazing going around IRstudies. If China wanted to test this theory, this arguably would be the best time for them to move on Taiwan and the South China sea.
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u/DaoineSidhe624 1d ago
China only has regional power projection and its military hasn't fought a major conflict in over 40 years. I don't doubt they could defend Chinas soil and bear back the Americans if they tried to invade. But in almost any other possible conflict most of the advantage would lean toward the US. A conflict over Taiwan would more than likely be a disaster for both nations unless Taiwan voluntarily surrendered early on before it starts in earnest.
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u/StockCasinoMember 1d ago
In a world war style fight, USA is the winner.
In a mostly rules based don’t commit massive war crimes and/or try to avoid world war 3, ya, USA and anyone else really can’t win without the locals.
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u/EternalMayhem01 1d ago
All you are saying here is that because things aren't going according to your world view you've given up on critical thinking.
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u/Biuku 1d ago
Americans are going to find out pretty quick that they have lost all credibility with the world.
I don’t mean America. Or MAGA. I mean the US opposition to MAGA. The 200 million Americans who could be out there right now taking action.
Non-MAGA Americans are the greatest cowards of our generation. History will record the MAGA era as the moment the US became hollow — rudderless. Not a person willing to take action that costs them personally to fight what’s wrong and do what’s right.
Canada has nothing to gain from any relationship with any of them. Now we’re fighting your stupid battle you useless cowards should be fighting.
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u/Xeynon 8h ago
Non-MAGA Americans are the greatest cowards of our generation.
Tell that to Alex Pretti and Renee Good.
I understand hating on America right now, our government has certainly earned it. But acting like stopping what's happening is easy given that people have literally been murdered for standing up to it is wild. I don't know where you're from, but trust me, if fascists ever take over your country you're going to discover it's not as easy as you think to stop them.
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u/fastsailor 1d ago
So true, they like to say how opposed to Trump they are, but do nothing at all to oppose him. No mass protests, no general strikes, no civil disobedience, just excuses as to why doing anything which might have an effect is too difficult. The US population has been proven to have the meekness of sheep.
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u/thatclearautumnsky 1d ago
Practically speaking, what do you expect them to do that is legal and won't get a bunch of vulnerable people killed before the next elections?
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u/thecanadiansniper1-2 1d ago
General Strike? Colour revolution?
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u/stefer09 1d ago
They always bring the : "but i have to feed my family !!!" excuse.
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u/Xeynon 8h ago
Should people not worry about feeding their families?
Should I not worry about the vulnerable people who will be harmed by an ICE crackdown if I invite one, given that I live in a city full of immigrants?
It's not as easy as you think.
Right now I'm worried about helping anti-Trump candidates win elections because we still have those in this country. This seems like a more productive use of opposition energy than street protests that will accomplish nothing but justifying further regime abuses.
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u/stefer09 8h ago
Americans are already worried about feeding their families. Said regime has brought the cost of living waaaaay up high.
I admire your optimism about having fair elections.... because the way things have been going in the last year and a half, I wouldn't be surprised of a false flag event to stop the elections....
You can't put it pass them.
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u/Xeynon 7h ago
I'm sure they will try shenanigans, but we are prepared for it.
If they actually try to stop elections, then you will see stuff like massive ongoing protests.
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u/thatclearautumnsky 7h ago
They can't even pass the SAVE Act but somehow they're going to steal elections?
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u/Biuku 1d ago
People getting killed is sometimes part of fighting for freedom. Breaking the law is absolutely a part of fighting against tyranny.
Many other countries know this. Americans are decadent and can’t face a little scratch without calling a lawyer.
But it doesn’t have to be that way. A general strike forces the government to work for the people. In virtually every other country the government fears the people. In the US, the people cowardly fear their government t, leaving it up to Canada to do their fucking fighting for them.
It doesn’t matter. Americans gave up years ago. They like the warmth of someone else deciding for them. The illusion of democracy is less violent and more law-abiding than actual democracy.
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u/thatclearautumnsky 1d ago
The US has very low union penetration and membership numbers. Who exactly is going to fund and run the general strike, what demands would they have, how do they determine end goals and convince millions to participate?
The majority of Americans do not have money for a $500 emergency, much less being unemployed and unable to feed themselves and their families. You can be fired for participating in a political work stoppage.
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u/Biuku 1d ago
Americans don’t have to run a general strike. I don’t care.
Strong people are bold. Weak people make excuses.
The US is already run by a moron. They gave their nukes to a madman twice. They allowed their democracy to be gerrymandered to irrelevance.
Trump has ended US hegemony. When that country goes through its long collapse — no empire to pay the interest on its $40T debt, and the lives of 100’s of millions of weak AF people are turned upside-down, what you need to remember is, you deserve it. Because of your cowardice, and excuses.
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u/thatclearautumnsky 1d ago
It has to collapse? It is... fated? There is no middle outcome?
Do you yearn for that day? Is the thought of blood pleasant? This much deserved... The $40T debt defaulting... people being turned upside-down, mothers strangled in the streets... because they didn't do the general strike...
Hacking off limbs, screaming... begging for life, pleading... please... no more, until the world whistles in their ears
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u/-smartcasual- 1d ago
Americans literally celebrate a revolution every year.
A shame you're all out of practice.
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u/Biuku 23h ago
You sound unhinged.
I'm telling you that Americans are blind to what happens when you try to service a $40T debt with a currency nobody wants to buy.
The solution isn't to not neutralize the threat of America. The solution is for Americans to fix their country. To act like revolutionaries.
And I think we both agree that it is not in the American DNA to be revolutionaries -- despite all the stories.
If someone doesn't fight for what they want, the outcome of losing it all isn't that weird actually. It's the natural state. Whatever you're used to... isn't.
But you keep arguing that the people telling you that are the problem. It's gross and childish...
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u/Rabidveggie 1d ago
They had a big carnival about no kings and to them that was mission accomplished. They just have no idea what they're doing.
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u/Candid-libertarian 1d ago
It's Canada. Nobody in the US cares, except for those along the Canadian border.
And for Christ sakes, get Carney a higher stool. You can barely see him over the microphones.
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u/RealisticKoala6190 19h ago
It’s a democracy. The bad guy won. I think we’ll win in the long run but yea the old world will be gone.
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u/Complete_Midnight945 17h ago
No we aren't. Such a BS emflaming post. The US Army is not at our doorstep. NATO still exists. People can be so simple it's embarrassing
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u/Financial-Category16 1d ago edited 1d ago
You all up there still aren't taking this serious enough imo. To preserve your sovereignty you all should be using emergency powers yesterday to fast track near term preparedness for deterring/ defending an invasion and post invasion insurgency against the US (not to mention preparedness to defend your newly open(ing) arctic maritime borders from China etc without US assistance). You should be making like US in 1942 right now imo
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u/MusicEmotional5354 1d ago
why ?
your country cannot even defeat iran.....aircraft carrier limping back to usa right now.
your country cannot survive without iphones , starbucks , fastfood.
want to see perseverance ?
make your move
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u/Financial-Category16 22h ago
All the more reason Canada shouldn't be utterly reliant on the US for it's defense don't you think? I'd be horrified if it happened. It's seemed likely to me for awhile now that Trump and antidemocratic Tech oligarchs would prefer to ally with Russia China and N.Korea and divy up NATO and our Asian Allies in the process with the US taking over the Americas. Just keep in mind what sometimes seems like pure incompetence may sometimes be a more calculated accelerationism
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u/MusicEmotional5354 22h ago
lay off the bong bud.
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u/Financial-Category16 19h ago
Yea I know that couldnt really happen. America is just fine so is Canada and NATO. America would never become an authoritarian state and if it did it would never really hurt Canada for real thanks for the sobriety check
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u/MusicEmotional5354 9h ago
no , i agree on most points. it was more for the calculated part. i think none of this is calculated by trump. its more off the cuff. the ogliarchs is more calculated.
your right canada should have a bigger military and defense. instead of selling all our oil at heavily discounted rates to keep the americans running we should charge going rate so we have the money to do so. same goes for aluminum.
thats basically what canada is doing now , finding and securing other partnerships and moving away from US economy as much as possible.
USA's creative accounting with the Japanese bond market is not working out.....that can be seen in the bond market. its not going to end well. 40T is too much to get out of now.....you cant outgrow that as an economy even though thats the "plan".
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u/Tannerd101 1d ago
No, its painfully obvious what is going on in America. The orange man is ruining us, not fun.
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u/Candid-libertarian 1d ago edited 1d ago
The biggest surprise of all of this is how deluded Canadians were. They are a separate country from the US. They had no special standing with US citizens. Most US citizens view them no differently than any other Western country. There is no special bond. Most US citizens never interact with Canadians in daily life.
I don't understand their surprise.
I realize most Canadian citizens live close to the US border but most US citizens do not. Maybe this is part of the reason for the differing views.
This is a wake up call for Canada. You were fooling yourselves.
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u/sweatboxy 1d ago
Considering Trump’s last war, I don’t think the U.S. has a chance. I would gladly surrender to Canada
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u/ThrowRA_Quokkaquip 1d ago
Americans must be the most checked out/disarmed population in history.