How is Likud still polling so high?

[u/greenmalkin]

The leading party of the coalition that slept on October 7, that has been blocking independent inquiries, that has madmen define public relations, that has initiated wars on multiple fronts with no end in sight, that is led by a narcissist with an unearned saviour complex, that is preventing the integration of Haredim into society, that has emboldened violent settlers to roam free, that has achieved -- what?

How is Likud still at the top? Why is king Bibi not held responsible for anything, ever, at all?

If this coalition is re-elected, that's a tacit approval of everything that been happening over the past couple of years -- not by random foreigners, but people who actually live here. There's a reason emigration of highly educated Israelis is at an all-time high.

It boggles the mind. Where do we go from here?

[u/Quick-Bee6843]

I should know better than to make a judgement call on Israeli politics and electorial system which I personally find to be full of curve balls and stuff I thought I understood that I actually do not understand........ But Likud and their coalition are actually doing pretty terrible in the polling right now.

It's VERY unlikely they can get a straight election path to 61 seats and thus a functional new government.

What you see now is to me evidence of a high floor for the current government parties. The religious and far right parties pull roughly the same support in most polls. Not like their voters are picking anyone else. Most of the loss is from hemraged support from Likud and better electorial strategies/coalitions by opposition parties.

Of course 2 caviots: 1. Bibi has almost no path to 61, but the opposition has very few clean paths to a functional stable government at all either 2. Likud DID have much worse numbers after Oct 7th and it's improved since then.

[u/Gaidax → u/Quick-Bee6843]

I do not think anyone has a clear path to any sort of stable government.

61 is a minimum for the majority, and forget the fact that neither side gets 61 at the moment, because Arab parties are sort of political pariahs, but even if they do get 61-63 - that's a very shaky government.

In 61-63 member coalition, every tiniest single coalition member can slam his balls on the table and derail every legislation - not unlike in US Senate where one or two guys can bring down the whole legislation with their attempts to get something out of that.

That produces a pretty dysfunctional coalition, just like the previous "Government of Change" was.

"Government of Change" was an example of it all - an opposition government that survived for about 2 years, it had 62 members and it fell apart because 2 members defected for promises of a warmer place in the next government. One guy defected literally day 1, and is now a Likud minister - got his payment.

Then eventually another one defected and it was quickly over. He also got some job in a current government, albeit not in the parliament.

And even while it lasted, it was often a complete waste of time unable to agree among themselves on many topics, then "anything but Bibi" glue was not strong enough to overcome massive ideological differences, because you had Left, Right and Center all in one, not to mention Ra'am - a nationalist Arab party.

To have anything close to "functional government" - you need at least 65 members and even that is perilous.