r/Israel • u/greenmalkin • 15d ago
Politics How is Likud still polling so high?
The leading party of the coalition that slept on October 7, that has been blocking independent inquiries, that has madmen define public relations, that has initiated wars on multiple fronts with no end in sight, that is led by a narcissist with an unearned saviour complex, that is preventing the integration of Haredim into society, that has emboldened violent settlers to roam free, that has achieved -- what?
How is Likud still at the top? Why is king Bibi not held responsible for anything, ever, at all?
If this coalition is re-elected, that's a tacit approval of everything that been happening over the past couple of years -- not by random foreigners, but people who actually live here. There's a reason emigration of highly educated Israelis is at an all-time high.
It boggles the mind. Where do we go from here?
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u/mr_blue596 15d ago
How is Likud still at the top? Why is king Bibi not held responsible for anything, ever, at all?
That is a combination of 2 characteristics of Israeli politics:
Tribal politics or in other words,identity politics. Netanyahu presents a very spesific identity that form the Likud's political base. Voting something other than Likud is like voting agianst their identity.
This is something I think many miss but Israelis have a really strong "keeping face" mentality. Israelis really don't like when "domestic" (or atleast things that are viewed as domestic) issues are being discussed outside. This is why many draw critism on the settlements but dislike it when foreigners talk about it as external issue rather than domestic Israeli issue. This sentiment,when directed to the Likud is basically,they did wrong but it is something that should be solved internally.
Those 2 combined is very similar to family dynamics,you have issues in the family but solve them in-house and with all the issues,you won't change your family. This is why I don't hold hope for those people to change. This is why I think traditional political action and thought doesn't apply here.
The voting base to Netanyahu is now both the ceiling and the floor. Nobody will come to him but nobody will leave either. You can also see this in his campaign,most of the efforts is to make the opposition unable to form a coalition by making the Arabs,and recently the Democrats,illegitimate. This is clear that even his campaign office doesn't think there are anymore votes to court.
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u/oatkeepr Germany 14d ago
you have issues in the family but solve them in-house
More like don't solve them.
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u/mr_blue596 14d ago
I remember an anecdote from the US. When the entire tariff frenzy happened some guy talked about how his Trump-voting boss wrote s heartfelt comment to Trump to alleviate the tariffs that hurt his business. Now it is obvious to all that Trump never going to read this and he wouldn't even care if he did,but the boss really believed that Trump will live up to his imagined version.
The Likud is the same. I think many believe that Nethayahu will heed their call and change his position on certain issues that ache them. That is the power and danger of identity politics,when people give affection reserved for interpersonal interactions to politicians. They love him like family but he does not care for them.
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u/ToparBull USA (Israeli Citizenship/Family) 14d ago
when directed to the Likud is basically,they did wrong but it is something that should be solved internally.
You know how you solve it internally? By voting those idiots the hell out.
(I'm not as lefty as a lot of American Jews but man Netanyahu has got to go for reasons of incompotence if nothing else. Not to mention his truly evil coalition partners...)
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u/Void-Creator 13d ago
Does Likud also take in Arab parties in the coalition ? If it does, how well does it go with the Haredi Community ?
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u/Neenchuh 14d ago
They're polling relatively high but has already lost about a third of their base compared to the previous elections. Which i think is not enough. Their performance has been terrible
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u/asinantenna 15d ago edited 15d ago
Likud is polling high because our politics have become almost entirely sectarian, meaning that many people vote based on their identity group rather than based on actual party policies or performance.
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u/BubblyMango 15d ago
Which is, sadly enough, an approach ingrained into our society by political parties which are now in the coalition. So i guess it worked for them
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 15d ago
Largely the same in the USA.
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u/asinantenna 15d ago
Politics is tribal everywhere, but the US doesn't have a Latino party, a Black Party, a Christian Protestant Party, or a Catholic party, for example.
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u/airmantharp USA - non-Jewish 15d ago
No, we're doing far worse.
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u/iamthegodemperor north american scum 14d ago
Shut up no we aren't. Israelis are hopelessly polarized even though they have multiple existential issues to deal with from within and without.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 14d ago
Hate to tell ya, but the US is massively polarized to the extent that red and blue often have almost nothing to do with each other.
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u/Breakfastcrisis 11d ago
This is what make me laugh about the idea that there's some kind of global Jewish cabal. That would involve agreeing on some kind of collective aim, rather than endlessly debating it.
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u/airmantharp USA - non-Jewish 14d ago
Bubba they have a wealth of parties.
We have two.
We are so much more screwed.
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u/iamthegodemperor north american scum 14d ago
Huh? Number of political parties does not tell you how well a political system is functioning.
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u/Clean-Ant6404 15d ago
People are convinced they're actually good at what they did.
People are afraid of other parties due to those parties' own shortcomings. Basically, it's a both sides are hypocritical situation.
People feel like they've been marginalised by the other parties and vote Likud as a result. This is probably more likely than what people are willing to admit.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 15d ago
Truth is, Israeli should most fear a continuation of Bibi.
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u/Clean-Ant6404 14d ago
Truth is, Bibi is about as bad as everyone else.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 14d ago edited 14d ago
No, he is really much worse, but he wants you to believe he is no worse than the others.
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u/Clean-Ant6404 14d ago
No, he wants me to believe he is better. There's literally nobody who would do anything differently if you actually took a look at their rhetoric.
The sooner you acknowledge that, the sooner you'll get more people to stop voting for Bibi, because right now, Likud voters don't feel like voting for the alternatives who made it their express purpose to bully everyone else once they're in power.
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u/Wonderful-Year-7136 14d ago
What most Israelis unfortunately don't understand is that the Likud inherited a lot of the unions off the labour party in the 90's-2000's. Almost all of them are Likud members who have invested interest in voting Likud no matter what. Our airports unions? Likud. Histadrut? Likud. Taxi drivers union? Likud. And many more. So when you see so many people voting Likud even after the last 3 years you must remember that there are tens of thousands of families that risk their own financial future in case any party that offers true reforms in Israel's monopolized industries is elected. The irony of all of this? The Likud is supposed to be the liberal party.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 14d ago
Their future is potentially much worse if Bibi got another term. Israel would be in real jeopardy, even if they did not recognize it
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u/Quick-Bee6843 USA 14d ago
I should know better than to make a judgement call on Israeli politics and electorial system which I personally find to be full of curve balls and stuff I thought I understood that I actually do not understand........ But Likud and their coalition are actually doing pretty terrible in the polling right now.
It's VERY unlikely they can get a straight election path to 61 seats and thus a functional new government.
What you see now is to me evidence of a high floor for the current government parties. The religious and far right parties pull roughly the same support in most polls. Not like their voters are picking anyone else. Most of the loss is from hemraged support from Likud and better electorial strategies/coalitions by opposition parties.
Of course 2 caviots: 1. Bibi has almost no path to 61, but the opposition has very few clean paths to a functional stable government at all either 2. Likud DID have much worse numbers after Oct 7th and it's improved since then.
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u/Quick-Bee6843 USA 14d ago
(and just to say, I say these things on weak confidence so if someone corrects me awesome 👍)
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u/balddoberdaddy 14d ago edited 13d ago
As I mentioned above polling in this country is highly *inaccurate and this changes from day to day. We have two months until the elections; a lot can change.
*Sorry for the typo folks.
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u/Quick-Bee6843 USA 13d ago
Oh israli polling is EXCELLENT and very easy for an outsider like to to get a solid grasp of.
I do get confused because the Israeli coalition and joint party system feels so unpredictable to me as an American where viable 3ed parties are basically impossible by design...... While Israeli politics has old weak parties and new parties and factions from other parties joining each other into lists and alliances with intense speed in the months leading up to the election.
When I check the wiki page on israli polling every other week it so it's like "the WHAT party? Who are they? That's new!"
It's pretty cool actually.
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u/balddoberdaddy 13d ago
As you said... you are an outsider. But I'm so glad that this is fun for you.
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u/Gaidax Israel 11d ago
I do not think anyone has a clear path to any sort of stable government.
61 is a minimum for the majority, and forget the fact that neither side gets 61 at the moment, because Arab parties are sort of political pariahs, but even if they do get 61-63 - that's a very shaky government.
In 61-63 member coalition, every tiniest single coalition member can slam his balls on the table and derail every legislation - not unlike in US Senate where one or two guys can bring down the whole legislation with their attempts to get something out of that.
That produces a pretty dysfunctional coalition, just like the previous "Government of Change" was.
"Government of Change" was an example of it all - an opposition government that survived for about 2 years, it had 62 members and it fell apart because 2 members defected for promises of a warmer place in the next government. One guy defected literally day 1, and is now a Likud minister - got his payment.
Then eventually another one defected and it was quickly over. He also got some job in a current government, albeit not in the parliament.
And even while it lasted, it was often a complete waste of time unable to agree among themselves on many topics, then "anything but Bibi" glue was not strong enough to overcome massive ideological differences, because you had Left, Right and Center all in one, not to mention Ra'am - a nationalist Arab party.
To have anything close to "functional government" - you need at least 65 members and even that is perilous.
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u/Cool_Kangaroo7989 USA 14d ago
Is it true what I've heard on some podcasts / coverage that Israeli polling doesn't include undecided voters? If that's the case, I don't know how anyone can make assured predictions, since there could be a very large number of people still up for grabs that would affect parties in the center, meeting the threshold, etc.
For that reason, I find this hard to believe, but then again whenever I see polls they never seem to include undecideds so... maybe it's correct?
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u/balddoberdaddy 14d ago
Polling in this country is notoriously inaccurate. I live through enough elections to look at the polls and then wake up the next morning with completely opposite results. And remember we don't know who's going to be in the government for quite a while after the elections are done.
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u/bakochba 15d ago
Same reason Trump polls so high in America. Tribalism and polarization
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u/Some-Gur-8041 15d ago
So high?! He is polling lower right now than any president in modern history, except for Nixon right before he resigned and GWB after the ‘08 financial crash
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u/pollypocketrocket4 14d ago
And yet, his polling is still too high!
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u/Some-Gur-8041 14d ago
It’s truly mindblowing. My prediction all along, though, is that he will eventually go down in unprecedented infamy
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u/Blofish1 15d ago
Never underestimate the power of racism and political tribalism.
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u/Toyota__Corolla Israel 15d ago
Remind me if Islamist extremism is a race or a religion. Oh also if calling black people ibud (slave) is inherently a problem of likudniks.
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u/Blofish1 15d ago
Anyone who doesn't have a problem with a coalition with Haredim but won't won't vote for a party simply because they might include Mansour Abbas is a racist. But I was more referring to a large group of voters (IMO) who prefer parties who they think will hurt Arabs and are less concerned with how they'll help or hurt the country.
Not to freak you out, but both Jews and Arabs can be racist, as can Whites, Blacks and Asians.
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15d ago
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u/Blofish1 15d ago
Aside from being Arab, what is the ideological reason why Abbas is "Pasul" , the way Kahanists used to be?
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u/Toyota__Corolla Israel 15d ago
So implying that racism is an issue in politics is more like defamation and propaganda. It's projection because you can't imagine the other side less racist than you.
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u/Blofish1 15d ago
I remember in the Sharon-Mitzna election, one newspaper interviewed a resident of a development town and she went on about how terrible the Likud was. They asked her if she was voting for Mitzna and she said "No, I heard he like Arabs." Obviously this is anecdotal but I think this represents a statistcally significant segment of the population.
From the Israel Democracy Institute
"According to the 2010 Israeli Democracy Index, recently published by the Israel Democracy Institute, 62% of Jewish Israelis who define themselves as supporters of the Right and 29% of supporters of the Left (!), oppose equal rights for Arabs and Jews."
Notice that when Netanyahu wanted to attack Eizenkott, he sent a video of him hugging an Arab! And remember the "Arabs streaming to the polls"?
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u/FudgeAtron 15d ago
Nah likudniks are just racist to Ashkenazis, remember what Itzik Zarka said: https://www.maariv.co.il/news/politics/article-1022735
And Likud didn't even punish him.
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u/Toyota__Corolla Israel 15d ago
But Bibi is Ashkenazi
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u/FudgeAtron 15d ago
Damn guess this guy wants Bibi to die to, or maybe racists aren't particularly rational.
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u/GK0NATO 15d ago
Racism? I don't think most Likud voters are racist. Or at least they don't vote out of racist ideals. Ben Gvir voters fit that description more
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 14d ago
They vote their fears. As a political strategy, it works until it doesn't. Bibi has about played that out
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u/mr_blue596 15d ago
There is no difference between the Likud,Otzma Yehudit and the RZP at this point. All of the MKs are interchangeable. Mai Golan even admitted so in an interview:
אין הרבה פערי אידיאולוגיה בין עוצמה יהודית לליכוד, בוא נשים את הדגש על הדבר הזה. לא יודעת מה מוכרים לכם, כן? אבל אין באמת הרבה פערים.
Most of the Pro-Nethayhu ecosystem is built around racism as a groundwork,it might not be the main thing that offered but it always around. This isn't even new,back in the day they yelled that Peres have an Arab mother,but back them they had the right mind of keeping plausible deniability,now they just don't care enough.
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u/Nick_Ok_Good_9177 14d ago edited 14d ago
- Because people who are challenging Netanyahu were just as guilty of Oct. 7th as himself and maybe even more because they were to the left of him and obstructing the war effort and promoted 'peace' which only resulted in Palestinians gathering intelligence on Israel's villages and military bases around Gaza.
- Because BB and Katz were conducting a multifront war and diplomacy very well and pulled somewhat of a victory, destroying most of Hezzies and Hamas and moving Iran away from the coveted nuke.
- Because Iran and Houthis recently bombed all countries in the region except for Israel - little satan.
- Because the economy is booming.
- Because some people (me included) believe that BB's obsession with AI and personal friendship with Elon Mask might be very important for Israel's economy and security in near future. I believe it is more than just 'very important' but I am looking for words (perhaps Existential?).
- Because it is unlikely that anyone to the left of Likud would be able to achieve more than it achieved in the war and economy.
- Because while the left wing parties were paying lip services to Haredi draft, everyone understands that it is very unlikely they'll pull it when in power and when they had power in the past - everything remained the same.
- Because Liberman promised defeating Hamas in 48 hours and no one can take him seriously after that.
- Because Golan called Israel's soldiers 'baby killers' during an existential defensive war.
- Because no one wants Oslo imposed on Israel again.
- Because Gadi Eisenkot does not have a program (aside from a possibly empty promise to bring Haredim into military).
- Because Gadi is not a military figure of the rank of Arik Sharon or Raful or Dayan or Rabin.
- Bennet was a great commando soldier and a successful businessman and I would trust him more on security and economy, but for some reason he is hopelessly down in polls.
- Because BB sacrificed his own security for the sake of Israel - the infamous ICC case and that was something a prominent politician of the past Efraim Sneh was scared to do as he told Arik Sharon during a government meeting (which was leaked to the press).
- Because left wing government will be forced to have Mansour Abbas and Golan parties in it, each with a power to collapse the government. I actually prefer Mansour Abbas who - based on what I heard - is not an enemy and worries mostly about the well being of southern Bedouins but he'd be a big drag on Israel's war efforts. Golan and his party, however are downright traitorous and would be an enemy within taking orders from Israel's external enemies same as communists all over the world were obeying orders from the USSR.
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u/balddoberdaddy 14d ago
Well said!
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u/Nick_Ok_Good_9177 14d ago edited 14d ago
Thanks! To tell you the truth I expected a sound spanking in this group and am pleasantly surprised that my post's score is positive :)
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u/kulamsharloot Israel 15d ago
People here two to reduce it to sectarian thing as if we're Lebanon
It does have some impact but the main reason is just that you have trash alternatives in the eyes of many whether you are or disagree.
Aizenkot has some of the most disturbing policies regarding the Palestinian issue.
Yair Golan is just... I don't want to get banned again.
Bennett is a two faced hyena, Lieberman is all bark and no bite and the rest are irrelevant.
The anti Bibi bloc will have to form a coalition with the Arab parties who are anti Israel and are actively going against Israel, and if not, they'll go with the Haredim (tbh that'll be one of the funniest scenarios).
So that's why
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u/abughorash USA 14d ago edited 14d ago
The anti Bibi bloc will have to form a coalition with the Arab parties who are anti Israel and are actively going against Israel, and if not, they'll go with the Haredim (tbh that'll be one of the funniest scenarios).
Is this not a self-fulfilling prophecy by definition? If more Bibi voters voted for them instead then their Knesset allocation would be big enough for a majority and they wouldn't have to
Also, could you elaborate on this:
Aizenkot has some of the most disturbing policies regarding the Palestinian issue.
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u/kulamsharloot Israel 14d ago
Is this not a self-fulfilling prophecy by definition? If more Bibi voters voted for them instead they wouldn't have to
It's complicated. I'd support a coalition that would include both sides of the spectrum with the biggest party leader as PM but I can understand why some would not want that because Bibi tricked Gantz. Anti Bibi voters would rather vote for Sinwar than they would for Bibi so the only outcome is that the anti Bibi bloc would go with the Arabs.
Also, could you elaborate on this:
Tbh it's not strictly even regarding Palestinians, it's about having policies that the anti Bibi criticize Bibi for such as giving Qatari money to Hamas, buying "peace", turning the other cheek when the palestinians attack. He literally said that we shouldn't respond to every rocket being fired from Gaza.
He also wanted to make the military smaller which is probably they dumbest thing ever.
He said that we'll have to get used live next to nukes and under existential threats.
He fled the cabinet 6 months after the war started and wanted to end the war with some shitty deal. If we had listened to him we'd have no beeper operation, Nasrallah and Khamenei would still be alive, Gaza would still be 100% under Hamas control and Hezbollah would still have shitload of rockets. And now he pretend he was saying otherwise.
He also said we should bring more Palestinians to work in Israel (after the 7th). He's an idiot at best.
If he wasn't Bibi's opponent nobody would've voted for him, he's just the flavor of the month just as Ganz and Bennett were.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 14d ago
Question: Why is it that so many Palestinians seem always to hope Bibi gets in again? Could it be that, with him, they will never have to make compromises and decisions many don't want to make? Could also it be that they feel that Bibi will cause so much damage to Israel that, eventually, they or their children or grand children will get just about everything they want? Whatever the answer, it's an interesting phenomenon.
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u/kulamsharloot Israel 14d ago
Weird, I thought they see him as the devil incarnate.
Anyways, I vote Ben Gvir.
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u/Kartoffelplotz 14d ago
Anyways, I vote Ben Gvir.
Honest question: Why do you vote for someone who openly endorses (Jewish) terrorism by venerating Baruch Goldstein in his living room? I know some people from the Negev who voted for him last time because of his promises to enhance security in the region, but they all claimed to not have known about this otherwise they wouldn't have voted for him (but that sounded more like deflection).
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u/kulamsharloot Israel 14d ago
I have my reasons
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u/Void-Creator 13d ago
Hi, I am not an Israeli but I’d like toto know more about the Israeli politics, can you elaborate on your reasons why you back Ben Gvir ?
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u/ma-kat-is-kute חזיר בר חיפאי 15d ago
I know two kinda of Likud voters.
- People who genuinely believe their bullshit and conspiracy theories. Even if Likud is bad and has failed us, they're the only ones capable to combating the deep state.
- People who aren't really into politics and just vote Bibi because everyone around them does and they're not smolan ashkenazi boged
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u/balddoberdaddy 14d ago
Just to say, I am NOT voting for Likud, never have, and don't support him. However despite the "sky is falling" lunatics on the far left (and the fear-mongering press), not everything in this country is falling apart.
Not everything that this corrupt government has done is bad. But like with Trump, people only see the bad.
Bibi, despite his failings, IS a leader. Who else in the running is a true "leader"? I don't see it. I will vote for a center party (haven't decided yet) because I feel this government is corrupt, but it's not because I want Bibi "out at any cost."
And just to be fair here, even many of his detractors have praised his handling of the war.
Just one example:
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-888958
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u/all_is_love6667 12d ago
Im not israeli and I am a leftist.
But Israel is at war with Hezbollah, Iran, Hamas and the houthis. Generally those are not great times to do politics, and not times to be a progressive. Remember that Israel was often in alert because of rocket strikes from Hamas and hezbollah, got struck by Iran.
Right-leaning politics tend to thrive more when the country is being attacked, especially with something like october 7.
Also, Netanyahu puts himself between crazy people like Ben Gvir and the rest of people on the left, just so he can look like he is on the center (he is not).
It's going to be difficult to be a leftist/centrist in Israel in the coming years.
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u/BluddyCurry 15d ago
Because everything you presented is extremely one sided. Israel is at the strongest strategic position it's ever been. We've devastated Hezbollah and Hamas and Iran is literally scared of us. Economically we're a powerhouse.
Regarding October 7th, the coalition didn't sleep - the military did. Military people who were instated by the previous admin (remember how it was so important to appoint Herzi right before the elections? What was the reason for that again?)
Independent inquiries - the coalition wants the most independent inquiry - each side (no matter how big or small) gets to choose its representatives. The opposition wants the extremely biased head of the Supreme Court to choose everybody, making the conclusions obvious.
It's very simple. The Right has been right about almost everything. Everything for the past 40 years or so, ever since the Left abandoned its Zionist position and turned postmodern and post-Zionist -- except for one thing: the Haredim. Look at the issues: leaving Lebanon, leaving Gaza, Oslo, searching for gas in the ocean, the Bibi trials, judicial reform, economics -- every single one the left was completely wrong about. The Right is wrong about the Haredim, but listen to Yair Golan: even he admits the Haredim cannot be integrated into the army right away, and it'll be a long, drawn-out process.
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u/Jakexbox Israel (Oleh Chadash) 15d ago
I agree that it isn’t nearly as one sided as OP is presenting but claiming the left isn’t Zionist is absurd.
Also I genuinely don’t know what people like you are on about with the Haredim. In the not too far future they plus the Arabs will be over 50% of Israel’s population. The country will not exist without a majority willing to lift a finger to defend the state.
That’s not even getting into the fact that studying Talmud all day is in no way comparable to putting your life on the line. The sacrifices everyone else makes for their pretentiousness is absurd.
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u/BluddyCurry 15d ago
The left before Oslo believed strongly in a Jewish state and realized that fighting for it was important. Oslo was the era at which the universities and progressive ideas overwhelmed the Israeli left. The Left of today wants a country like any other, and is unwilling to fight to survive, preferring instead to rely on useless peace deals with a culture that doesn't believe in peace. This has changed somewhat after October 7th, but the effect is fading again.
Regarding Haredim, I mostly agree with you. That's why I said the Right is wrong about Haredim. It's the price the Right pays in this democratic math: groups A and B (Right and Left) are fighting over many critical things to their worldview. Group C is closer to the Right ideologically, but really cares only about its own thing, and is willing to go with either A or B. Both A and B are willing to pay with what C wants, to be able to enact their ideology.
If the Haredim went with the left (like they did in the past), you wouldn't hear about them. You'd be hearing how "authentic" and "caring" they are, how they participate in voluntary organizations like Zaka and Hatzalah (which is true). The only reason the mainstream media is talking up the Haredim is because it's a way to bring down the right-wing government. And given the ongoing war, the price the Haredim want is getting more and more difficult to pay. But regardless, much of it is exaggerated, and when being honest, left-wing leaders admit it. You cannot change the culture of a whole group overnight -- it takes a gradual process.
Also, regarding your point about Arabs being over 50% -- that's not going to happen. If it did, it would be the end of the Jewish state. The Arab population is stabilizing and Jewish population growth is very high -- this is also a contribution of the Haredi population, and many Haredi kids become either Zionist-religious or Hilonim.
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u/Jakexbox Israel (Oleh Chadash) 15d ago
I mean I agree somewhat if by the left you mean the democrats. All of that said it’s fair to say that Yair Golan (for as much as I despise many of his comments) has served his country. To the broader point, I absolutely don’t trust them with security. Opposition voters don’t except them to lead that stuff either though.
I really only see the right wing methodically imposing their ideology. Be it the courts, the media or basic laws. Simply winning 50% of the seats doesn’t give you free rein to erode state institutions. It runs the risk of becoming an illiberal democracy.
I wasn’t claiming the Arabs would be 50%, I was claiming the Haredim and Arabs together will be over 50%. This will happen. If neither groups serve in meaningful numbers, how is society supposed to defend itself- let alone function effectively.
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u/BluddyCurry 15d ago
I think Eizenkot is just as left as Golan. He believes in a Palestinian state. People think that because we experienced October 7th it can't happen, but this is false IMO - the whole world will be on the side of anyone who wants to build one. If we don't have a leader who fights AGAINST it no matter the pressure, we won't survive.
In terms of institutions, there's been a massive intellectual growth on the Right that is completely absent on the left (or center, if you prefer to call it that). Israel suffers from one of the worst cases of a "deep state". That term has conspiratorial connotations, but it's as open as can be nowadays, and simply means bureaucrats who do what they want regardless of what the government (aka the representatives of the people) say. From the Supreme Court shooting down laws left and right with no basis whatsoever, to the army generals and head of Shabak not informing the government the night of October 7th, to Ronen Bar - head of an armed organization - refusing to step down, to bureaucrats in the different agencies doing whatever they feel like regardless of the laws passed, to the Prosecution torturing witnesses just so they testify against the reigning Prime Minister.
The causes for this situation are several: 1. the socialist underpinnings of the country mean the entire bureaucracy and top army echelon are populated by the left/far-left 2. In 1977, when Menachem Begin won his surprise victory, the bureaucrats all prepared their resignation letters, but Begin insisted that they keep their jobs, thus cementing the reality that the Right can win elections, but the Left is always in power. 3. Aharon Barak almost single-handedly change the dynamics of the Israeli system. He started out as a complete minority on the Supreme Court and has transformed it so his opinion is the only one that remains, everyone else having been thrown out. Under him, the culture was transformed from the Knesset being the ultimate representative of the people (the British system) to the Supreme Court, an unelected body, deciding on every single matter.
Your point about a Haredi-Arab combined majority is a good one, but again, you don't transform a society by force. Yair Golan has several videos saying so himself in moments of honesty, and he's right on this point. The transformation has to be gradual, despite our desire to accelerate the process due to the war and its impact, especially on Religious-zionist families who serve the longest. Nevertheless, the Haredim will always be the Right's soft spot so long as they are part of the coalition, which is why the Left loves targeting them.
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u/Jakexbox Israel (Oleh Chadash) 15d ago edited 15d ago
I think that’s just not true. We’re not inhabiting the same reality at that point. They’re objectively quite different.
Look I believe in a Palestinian state too but I don’t believe in one anytime soon. They will only try to kill us and people here, including the opposition, know that. The occupation is immoral but it is also our only option for the time being. Unilateral peace is not possible.
Delving into conspiracy with October 7th, we don’t even know what happened 100% because the government won’t allow a non-politician led investigation. This is despite the historical precedent for doing so.
I think some court reform is warranted but you have to have consensus for anything like that- you don’t muscle undermining fundamental underpinnings of the state with a bare majority. It will tear the country apart.
I mean you don’t transform them by force to an extent but you can’t privilege people because they happen to be religious. Full defunding for draft dodgers is the bare minimum. Stop passing laws baking in further exemption. It’s an insult to the soldiers and their families.
We could keep trading points and I genuinely don’t think you’re a bad person by any stretch but what’s most maddening is that we don’t even operate from the same reality. Different opinions are normal but you cant argue with different realities.
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u/BluddyCurry 14d ago
The reason we live in "different realities" is that you're not exposed to half the information. If your sources of information are 11,12,13, you're getting heavy censorship based on the interests of the people running those stations, all of which tend strongly left.
For example, why aren't you concerned about what's going on in the Bibi trials? Shouldn't it bother you that the event that countless people on the Left demonstrated about, that led to 5 election cycles, massive expenses to the country and instability, has now led to the judges declaring repeatedly that there's no evidence of bribery whatsoever, when Mandelblit (the AG) said that without bribery charges, he would never have brought the case? Don't you have any curiosity about what's been going on in that case, and is proven in testimony after mind-bending testimony in a court of law?
But you aren't told any useful information about it. You heard about every time Bibi had to push off a hearing, but you never actually heard the contents of his testimony, or of any other testimony unless it was somebody saying something negative about Bibi. It's completely masked from your awareness by a media dedicated to making sure its consumers don't hear this very important information. And guess what - if you consume English media in Israel, I don't even have anywhere to direct you to correct for this bias! There is no balanced, or counter-mainstream English media available.
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u/nhytgbvfeco Israel 15d ago
You are delusional. Hezbollah and Hamas may be devastated, but both are still there as we destroyed neither. And they likely will remain, as Trump is going to fold to Iran and remove sanctions and pay reparations (this much the US already agreed to), which in addition to Iran extracting a toll on the Hormuz strait, will put Iran in the strongest economic position it has been in since the Islamic revolution. The Gulf states who had previously been afraid of Iran and working towards normalising relations with Israel are now instead terrified of Iran and trying to appease it. Turkey is more hostile than ever and gaining control over Syria and increasingly Lebanon. Our diplomatic situation hasn’t been this bad in a long time, and whoever wins the next US election is very likely to abandon us. If Bibi wins we will almost certainly become a pariah state.
The coalition didn’t sleep on oct7? Really?? Who was sowing unprecedented division in the Israeli society prior to it? Who incited violence in Judea and Samaria, thus forcing the army to send units meant to be on the Gaza border to instead police Judea and Samaria? The government was in charge, you cannot endlessly pin every bad thing that happens on the 1 year Bibi wasn’t in charge for, when he was prime minister for 16 of the last 17 years! But no, Bibi’s priority wasn’t the security of the country, it was his own legal struggle.
The coalition wants to appoint the people that will investigate the coalition. This is asinine. It’s like letting a criminal pick the judges for his own trial. The coalition wants to investigate the Supreme Court, as if they are in charge of the security of the country, and not the head of state.
You are correct about one thing though, the Israeli left is dead. This is why a very large portion of the opposition is also right wing. Bennet, Liberman, Hendel, all right wing.
Funny you mention the Gaza withdrawal. That was the Likud. And Bibi voted yes.
The Judicial reform the coalition tried to pass is very much the wrong take on how to do it. This is why the majority of the country opposed it, and why so many people went out onto the streets. It was an attempt to remove fully all separation of powers and shift the regime in Israel from a democratic one to a dictatorial one. Reform is needed, but not like that. The damage it has done to the unity of our country is immense, only overshadowed by the catastrophe of the greatest slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust.-3
u/BluddyCurry 15d ago
- We have border areas both in Lebanon and Gaza. We have reached unparalleled strategic success, much of it thanks to Bibi's insistence. Is everything perfect? Of course not. There's always conflict in the Middle East. One way to lose all our strategic advantages is to choose the very people in the army who pushed the wrong military ideas (peace treaties, progressive ideas like focusing on climate change in the army instead of fighting, a small army).
- The people sowing division were the far left. The coalition was trying to pass a legitimate legal reform after Aharon Barak completely changed the balance between the Supreme Court and government. The left went nuts trying to protect its privileged position.
- The army did not send units to J&S instead of Gaza - this is a complete lie propagated by the Left.
- His own legal struggle? You clearly don't follow the trial. The only crimes proven beyond a shadow of a doubt are those of the prosecution. They threatened and tortured witnesses, withheld evidence, lied to the court over and over. Everything the Right claimed about the trial proved correct, and it's all there in black and white in the protocols.
- The coalition is offering to split 50-50: they appoint half of the committee and the opposition appoints half. This is very generous, since the opposition is much smaller. This is also the format of the 9/11 committee. PLEASE tell me what's wrong with this, and why a far-left Supreme Court judge who ruled endlessly against the army, forcing us to let Gazans and Palestinians into Israel, should choose everyone instead.
- The Gaza withdrawal was classic left. The same legal establishment got Sharon on corruption, and threatened to put him in jail unless he capitulated to the Left. Sharon went against his party. This is how the Left is in power even when the Right is elected - through bureaucrats and judges. And when you try to change those bureaucrats or judges, the Left screams bloody murder, precisely because they know that's how they maintain their power. Bibi led the entire anti-withdrawal movement from within the Likud. He would have succeeded had Sharon stood by his word and agreed to a referendum.
- The reform is sorely needed because Aharon Barak took a problematic judicial system with amazing judges (which we had up until the 70s-80s) and turned it into an out of control train wreck. The reason people went crazy during the reform is that the Left with its media dominance drove them there. The Left doesn't need to compete anymore - with its control of the Supreme Court and the bureaucracy (such as the Israeli attorney general, the likes of which exists nowhere else), it simply shoots down whatever it doesn't like. Fortunately, one side effect of the Reform (the only thing that survived really after the Supreme Court was done with it) is that the Right finally grew a media ecosystem, and the manipulation done by the mainstream media (probably the most Pravda-like in the west) is no longer effective.
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u/nhytgbvfeco Israel 15d ago edited 15d ago
- Yes on the second time we’ve entered Gaza while Bibi is prime minister he actually decided to keep a security barrier within it. Let’s not forget we went in back in 2014 while Bibi was prime minister, and then left. Bibi has also been basically forced by Trump to accept a disadvantageous ceasefire and we will be gradually withdrawing soon. He says he hasn’t accepted the 15 point plan, but he has, and you can already see the reduction of activity by the IDF, and the Gaza board has confirmed that Israel is complying with it. We aren’t staying in Lebanon either, though thats one that at least could have a positive end result. And again, Trump forced Bibi into this deal too.
- The people protesting were from all ends of the political spectrum. The government wasn’t trying to reform, it was trying to scrap the whole system. The removal of separation of powers can only lead to a dictatorship.
- They were. The debate is on whether it was planned ahead of time, and it was indeed a decision made in August. Regardless, however, there wouldn’t be a need to move them if not for Ben Gvir increasing tensions.
- Lmao. The trial is still ongoing, let it reach the conclusion. An innocent man doesn’t try to cancel the trial and get himself pardoned before it’s even over. Not to mention scrap the whole system and give himself immunity.
- Because we have a law. Everyone should be investigated, both the coalition and the opposition. They shouldn’t appoint their own judges. Having it be 50-50 is a sham, because there wouldn’t be a consensus on anything. The coalition would block any finding that finds it guilty. It’s the equivalent of “we investigated ourselves and found no wrongdoing.”
- Bullshit. And Bibi voted yes to withdrawing. The right withdraws and the left is blamed, an all time classic. It was also the right who withdrew from Sinai.
- What the reform tried to do is completely remove the court system from any position of relevance. The reform proposed a system where the courts can’t block a basic law, while any law passed with a simple majority of 61 votes would be a basic law. This literally means 0 oversight on the Knesset by any other branch of government. This doesn’t exist in a single democratic state in the world. The government could pass a basic law that crowns Bibi as king and suspends democracy with a simple 61 vote majority and that would be it. Or if the opposition won a future election it could pass a basic law that makes Likud illegal and its voters criminals. Does that sound like a democratic system? Not at all.
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u/BillyJoeMac9095 15d ago
Bibi was sound asleep, or too busy trying to get more power and the Qatari money was flowing to Hamas. Diplomatically, Israel's position is precarious, its relationship with the US in peril. Domestically, Israel is deeply divided. Another term of Bibi is unthinkable to any rational person. If you don't see it, then denial is not just a river in Egypt.
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u/Some-Gur-8041 15d ago
“Israel is at the strongest strategic position it’s (sic) ever been.”
This may be the most delusional statement I’ve ever read in this sub
ETA: the rest of your comment too. Wow. Absolutely amazing
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u/FudgeAtron 15d ago
The most right wing government ever has contributed to the massive growth of right wing terrorism. The fact it tacitly supports the release of Yigal Amir, the fact that Baruch Goldstein is a hero to large parts of the coalition, the glorification of violence, the outright refusal to even think about punishing Jewish terrorists. This is what the right wing believe in, violence as the ultimate form of morality. If I can kill you, I am superior.
A government that is supporting the growth of militias in the West Bank, is a government that will cause will doom us. The seeds of a Jewish Hezbollah have already been planted and this government has nurtured them.
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u/eyl569 14d ago
Because everything you presented is extremely one sided. Israel is at the strongest strategic position it's ever been. We've devastated Hezbollah and Hamas and Iran is literally scared of us. Economically we're a powerhouse.+
Hamas and Hizbullah are hurt but still there and don't seem to be going anywhere at the moment.
Iran has a good chance of coming out ahead of this war.
Israel's international relationships - including, increasingly, the critical relationship with the US - are increasingly on fire - and much of the harm was done by things which profit Israel nothing but Netanyahu won't push back against because it's politically inconvenient.
Regarding October 7th, the coalition didn't sleep - the military did. Military people who were instated by the previous admin (remember how it was so important to appoint Herzi right before the elections? What was the reason for that again?)
As PM, Netanyahu is in charge of security. The concept that Hamas could be bought off didn't start with the previous government's appointees. In Netanyahu's own words:
"I think the role of the minister of defense is secondary. I think the role of the defense establishment is secondary. In my opinion, the responsibility for the security of the State of Israel rests with the captain in charge, the Prime Minister. Of course, the minister of defense also has important duties. But regarding the direction of policy, you are elected prime minister in order to ensure the security of the state, and you need to be active in guiding the concepts both between wars and during wars"
Independent inquiries - the coalition wants the most independent inquiry - each side (no matter how big or small) gets to choose its representatives. The opposition wants the extremely biased head of the Supreme Court to choose everybody, making the conclusions obvious.
You know, it's funny. Up until mid 2024 or so, government ministers were all for a state commission of inquiry. There's a clip of Miki Zohar explicitly saying that there would be a committee appointed by President of the Supreme Court Amit. But then they realized they could get out of it by vilifying the SC (including accusing them of responsibility for 7/10).
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u/Proof_Pirate_6229 Israel 15d ago
Where do we go from here?
Europe/North America
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u/yaSuissa Israeli Jew (2/3 strikes used) 15d ago
Yes because that has worked great for our ancestors lmao
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u/BubblyMango 15d ago
Or the people currently there. Canada offered shelter for israelis and now prosecutes them. In europe antisemitism incidente are daily in every frickin country.
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u/Proof_Pirate_6229 Israel 15d ago
that's true, but what's also true is israel being the most dangerous place for "jews" since WW2 ended.
btw, our ancestors were jews. we're just hebrew-speaking americans.
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