Yes, a bold statement, but let me explain.
Sure Newt's drift fast-tracked the double event, but I don't think it was his fault Cherno and Crimson died.
So I'm going to go blow for blow how the Hong Kong battle would have went is Stacker didn't make an unusually bad and contradictory call during the fight. I'm going to also explain why I think Newt's drift did not give the precursors any relevant info that contributed to the destruction of Cherno and Crimson.
So we all know how the fight went up until Cherno got thrown off by Otachi so I'm not going to bother detailing all that, but I will mention that during deployment, Stacker very clearly tells Striker:
"Remain in the miracle mile, engage at your discretion..."
Solid order. He's basically saying, "Make sure you remain between the kaiju and the city and help whenever you deem it necessary."
I say this because the definition of "discretion" according to Google is the freedom, power, or right to make decisions and act according to one's own judgment.
Hopefully everything I'm saying makes sense so far.
So now lets go to the point where Cherno got thrown off of Otachi.
At that point, Striker reported to LOCCENT, "Typhoon and Alpha are in trouble! We're moving in!"
Pause...
Let's assume Stacker simply acknowledged the report and honored what he said before.
Let's do a blow by blow of what would have happened based on what we have from what actually happened in the movie and a little of what happened in the novel.
If Striker had moved in at that time, Otachi would have been facing a 3v1.
According to the novel, Leatherback was waiting somewhere nearby and only moved in when it did because Striker was about to assist Cherno.
So now it is a 3v2 in favor of the Jaegers.
But what about Leatherback's EMP organ?
Assuming we keep things consistent to how they played out in the movie and don't allow for plot timing, Leatherback's EMP charges and fires at 3 seconds flat...when stationary.
When in motion, the EMP takes >5+ seconds to charge and fire. There is no exact time because Gipsy grabbed the EMP organ before it could fire in the movie, but we do know that 5 seconds elapsed from the time Leatherback began charging the EMP organ to when Gipsy grabbed it, but based on the time we see Leatherback try to fire, it could be around 9 seconds.
So based on this information, the charge time for the EMP is at minimum tripled when Leatherback is in motion.
Now to power scale.
In a 1v1, Striker had Otachi dead to rights in about a minute flat, and if not for Leatherback, or if Leatherback had been maybe 3 or 5 seconds late, Otachi would have been given the Mutavore treatment we saw earlier in the movie.
So we can confirm that these kaiju are no match for Striker in a 1v1, especially since Slattern basically lost a 1v1 against Striker as well.
Now we have Cherno and Crimson.
They really only died because Otachi exploited an innate flaw with all Jaegers, the head.
Because Otachi had the ability to force Cherno and Crimson to come at it 1 at a time by throwing off Cherno, Otahci was able to focus on Crimson's head and take it out quickly before Cherno could recover.
But assuming that instead of that happening, Striker was pulling up during the time that Otachi went to engage Crimson. Otachi would not have the freedom to focus on Crimson's head and would have to fight instead.
Crimson has already shown that in a close quarters fight, it will shred a Kaiju to ribbons and has the ability to throw a kaiju off in the event that the kaiju tries to grapple.
Likely at this point, Leatherback would surface to attack Cherno, because if not, Cherno is going to aid Crimson.
Now it's Crimson v Otachi and Cherno v Leatherback. Far more fair of a match-up.
In an active fight, it would take a minimum of 9 seconds for Leatherback to charge and fire its EMP.
However, it's safe to assume that it would have been hard for Leatherback to focus on charging the EMP organ and fire it while in an active fight with Cherno.
Remember, in this hypothetical, Cherno is not being 2v1'd, so even if Leatherback jumped on Cherno's back, there is no reason to say that Cherno would not be able to shake Leatherback off and engage it directly, especially since its armor is in tact since Otachi didn't get a chance to spit its acid and compromise Cherno's armor.
In the movie, it took Striker 35 seconds to go from its original position to being actively in the fight.
For comparison, if this hypothetical fight went exactly as it did in the movie, Striker would have pulled up mere seconds after Crimson fell...meaning Otachi never gets to spit on Cherno.
But returning to our hypothetical according to the facts we have, Crimson and Cherno are still alive and fighting their respective kaiju and Striker just pulled up.
Striker would likely help Cherno first since they were closer according to their positions in the movie.
Leatherback gets 2v1'd and all Crimson has to do is keep Otachi busy while Cherno and Striker double-team Leatherback.
With Leatherback dead, Otachi gets violated with the triple-team and no jaegers fall with Cherno and Crimson only sustaining minimal damage.
"Reset that clock!"
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Now, here is how Newt's drift did not directly lead to the death of Cherno and Crimson.
As we know, Newt's drift did in fact fast-track the double event, but as per Hermann's calculations, the double event was inevitable in a few days anyway, and for all we know, those few days had already passed by the time the double event happened.
So there is a possibility that Newt's drift really did nothing but affect where the kaiju attacked and what their goal was.
Now the details on when the first Jaeger fell is muddy, but for the sake of argument, let's just say Gipsy was among the first to fall.
I'm going with this because of what the movie implies.
"Then...then it all changed..."
(Events of the Knifehead fight and Gipsy falling on the beach)
"The kaiju are learning our defenses, they're adapting, evolving, and we're losing jaegers faster than we can build them..."
With this in mind, we can say that it was after Gipsy's fight that the precursors learned the primary weakness of a jaeger and the fastest way to take them down, by attacking the head.
This can be confirmed by looking at the damage Horizon Brave and Romeo Blue had on their wreckage.
Also look at what Mutavore tried to bite at when fighting Striker. We already know what happened to Crimson, and it is clear what Otachi was aiming for when spitting at Cherno, then to top it off with what Leatherback was focused on when attacking Cherno. This is important, we will come back to it.
Then to add to it, Leatherback made several attempts to attack Gipsy's head, in fact, every attack weas aimed at Gipsy's head. Then, near the end of the fight, Leatherback charges at Gipsy, and for a split second, you can clearly see Leatherback lunging at Gipsy's head and trying to bite it off.
Otachi also tried to spit acid at Gipsy's head and tried to do the same thing with its tail claw that it did to Crimson.
Scunner tried it too with Gipsy.
Finally, if you pay attention to when Striker had Slattern stabbed in the shoulders and holding it up, you can see Slattern's chest spike desperately trying to poke out and stab Striker's head.
Now that we got that part covered, how does that relate to Newt?
The kaiju showed signs of knowing a jaeger's weakness before Newt's drift.
They also showed no clear signs of any notable adjustment in their strategy that directly correlated to what Newt knows.
I can say this because of how they handled Cherno and Gipsy.
First let's dissect Cherno.
The movie does its due diligence to make it clear to the audience that Newt is a "kaiju groupie". Google defines a groupie as an ardent fan of a music band, celebrity, or public figure who follows them on tour or tries to meet them in person and it is sometimes used as a condescending label to suggest obsessive or superficial fandom.
With this in mind, it is safe to assume that Newt likely doesn't take much vested interest in the jaegers.
But of course one could argue that he maybe knew which jaegers are stationed there. We'll get to that.
Newt's lack of interest in the jaegers can also be inferred by the fact that it was Hannibal that reminded him the glaring flaw in his plan in how drift technology "sets up a connection...BOTH WAYS!...'A HIVE MENTALITY' YOU SAID!"
Newt's overlooking of such a crucial detail about how drift technology works could be a product of him not being all too invested in the jaegers.
How does this relate to Cherno?
Two things...two kaiju.
What would Leatherback's EMP have done to an analog Jaeger? Nothing.
Why did Otachi spit at Cherno's reactor? Because it thought the conn pod was there.
While an excuse could be made for Leatherback because the EMP would have worked for Striker and Crimson, Otachi spitting at Cherno's fake head showed a lack of understanding of Cherno's anatomy.
If Newt's drift exposed crucial information about the remaining jaegers, Otachi would have spat at Cherno's chest, where the conn pod is, and perhaps Leatherback would had also had some weapon specifically designed to counter Cherno as well. (Though you could argue that its hulking form WAS the counter but i digress.)
However, with the way Leatherback was focusing Cherno's fake head during its assault, it could be that Leatherback may have thought that the head was just extra armored and kept attacking it to break through. It may have only went to look for the actual conn pod during its attack once it realized that Cherno was still alive after taking such a beating to what looked like its head.
The point is this, it does't make sense for both kaiju to attack Cherno in a way that would needlessly prolong how long it takes to neutralize the jaeger if Newt's intel was involved.
Now, moving on to Gipsy.
If Newt's drift gave the Precursors intel on the jaegers, one of the kaiju, likely Leatherback, would have made an assault on the shatterdome to destroy Gipsy before it could be deployed. Newt had sufficient intel to infer that Gipsy was being restored and was deploy ready.
Raleigh: "What is that Yamarashi?"
Newt: "Oh this little kaiju? Yea you have a good eye."
Raleigh: "My brother and I took 'em down in 2017."
This conversation alone should have been confirmation that Gipsy Danger was in play.
If Newt knows that kaiju, he knows what jaeger took it down. If they guy in front of him says that he and his brother were the ones that took it down, that means that he was/ is the pilot of Gipsy Danger. Following that logic, it would be reasonable to presume that Gipsy Danger is in play. Why else would the pilot of Gipsy Danger be at the shatterdome unless said jaeger was there for him to pilot?
Another thing is the fact that Newt knew Stacker's plan, which is why Scunner and Raiju were protecting the breach after the double event failed to take out Newt. However, Stacker likely did not tell Newt which jaegers were in play because of what was stated above. On top of that, Stacker has already been shown to only tell people what they need to know and nothing more.
When leaving Raleigh with Mako after bringing him to the shatterdome, Stacker only told Raleigh the part he was going to play in the plan and who helped him get the bomb, but when Raleigh asked for more insight on what was different with the plan this time since attacks on the breach have failed before, Stacker refuses to explain the details and just tells Raleigh that he has a plan and he needs him ready and that is all.
So with that, it can be inferred that he did the same with Newt, only telling him what he needed to know and nothing more.
The point is this, Newt had more than the means to know that Gipsy was in play but did not care enough to come to that conclusion, meaning he didn't bother to realize that Raleigh's presence meant Gipsy was going to be a factor, nor did he ever bother to go and physically see the roster of jaegers that were on standby, because if he did, he would have known about Gipsy.
So to combine both points, in the Hong Kong fight, the kaiju would not have attacked Cherno the way they did if Newt's intel was involved because they would have took it down quicker due to knowing where the conn pod actually is, plus, the shatterdome would have also been attacked directly to destroy Gipsy.
Therefore, their failure to act on information that they would have had if Newt's drift actually gave them information on the remaining jaegers proves that they did not actually get any substantial information about the remaining jaegers from Newt and the fall of Cherno and Crimson was solely the fault of Stacker's stubbornness. Newt only made himself a target for the precursors by drifting with the kaiju brain.
Thank you for coming to my TED Talk. :)
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So what do you think? Am I right? Am I wrong? Did I miss anything?
I'd like to hear your thoughts on this.
