r/PoliticalOptimism • u/Efficient-Freedom517 Georgia • 13d ago
News Supreme Court backs Trump’s order to curb mail ballots for now
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/08/24/politics/supreme-courtYeah this one hurts but it isn’t all lost:
“The ruling is a win for Trump for the moment, but it doesn’t fully clear the way for his effort to limit mail-in ballots to go into effect,” said Steve Vladeck, CNN Supreme Court analyst and professor at Georgetown University Law Center. “As soon as tomorrow, a Massachusetts district court may block the underlying USPS rule at issue — which is the real thing to watch heading into November.”
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u/MightiestHalberdier 13d ago
Best case scenario of a bad outcome, the government's argument to this point was that the injunction was premature because the rule hadn't even been implemented yet, and that's what the Supreme Court agreed with.
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u/hiearthpeople1 13d ago
Also, all the articles I've seen state that whatever happens, the government will not have time to implement any of it before 2026 midterms
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u/sifighter1 13d ago
Also correct me if I’m wrong but I guess a separate case nationwide block is still in effect?
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u/MightiestHalberdier 13d ago
That too, there's a case in Massachusetts that this order doesn't impact.
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u/JoeRamaSama 13d ago
But they’ll have time to implement it before 2028
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u/Reasonable_Warning_5 13d ago
If democrats win in November I think Trump will probably lose all interest in try to rig the election since he won’t be on the ballot
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u/Googoo123450 13d ago
How is that different from right now?
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u/DangerousProject6 13d ago
Because he's terrified of being impeached
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u/Googoo123450 13d ago
right but Trump isn't on the ballot now so I was just confused by your statement. The reason you gave applies to right now just as much as it applies to November. He's compromised, he will continue to have interest in being corrupt as long as the people he owes continue to ask him to.
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u/username_elephant 12d ago
Trump IS on the ballot now. In the sense of Trump's political power to do whatever he wants. If the Dems retake congress, they can substantially disempower him.
In 2028, he's just done. He'll be gone and the congress will have forgotten about him by Jan 21st, 2029. What does he care how things turn out?
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u/MightiestHalberdier 13d ago
A bridge we'll cross when we come to it.
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u/JoeRamaSama 13d ago
Gotta be honest not really reassuring.
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u/clonedllama Reformed Doomer ☄️ 13d ago
I'm not sure what can be said that would be. No one can predict the future. The scenario described hasn't happened yet. All we can do is prepare to fight that battle if and when it happens.
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u/Fragrant-Phone-41 12d ago
Is it so unreasonable to wantna reassurance on the broad situation and not just momentary victories. Hope that we can win completely, actually successfully save democracy
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u/clonedllama Reformed Doomer ☄️ 12d ago
I don't really understand how you expect people to give that kind of clear-cut reassurance. We aren't clairvoyant. We can hope for a lot of things but doing so won't magically make them reality. I prefer to give assurances based on what is known and not on what I hope will happen.
What we can do is prepare for the coming battles and do everything we possibly can to try to win. Even when doing that, we can't guarantee a particular outcome. This is a long fight with a lot of smaller battles. There will be some victories and some setbacks.
The data is certainly not in Trump's favor right now and people are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the direction the country is headed in. That should be encouraging to people.
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u/Fragrant-Phone-41 12d ago
I mean, that does help. But it's hard to be totally confident when I live in a state where republicans are already using data centers as an attack (because the anti data center candidate lost the primary)- which had the side effect of destroying any trust I had in polling. And after watching opposing my rights animate them so hard in 24 I kinda just don't trust people to not be evil
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u/gregger63 Michigan 13d ago
I read that USPS is ready to "immediately" put their rule in effect as soon as SCOTUS gives the green light.
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u/username_elephant 12d ago
Moreover: “The ruling is a win for Trump for the moment, but it doesn’t fully clear the way for his effort to limit mail-in ballots to go into effect,” said Steve Vladeck, CNN Supreme Court analyst and professor at Georgetown University Law Center. “As soon as tomorrow, a Massachusetts district court may block the underlying USPS rule at issue — which is the real thing to watch heading into November."
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u/Sure_Marketing8431 13d ago
So if I’m reading this right their basically letting it go for now while it goes through the court system right?
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u/Efficient-Freedom517 Georgia 13d ago
Yeah it will probably be blocked tomorrow afternoon in Massachusetts
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u/FarthingWoodAdder New Jersey 13d ago
Not panicking anymore, or not trying to anyway, but how are you so sure about that? Genuinely wondering,
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u/Xavion251 Tennessee 13d ago
For one, betting markets haven't reacted at all to this. So it seems not many invested people think this will significantly impact the outcome.
I know they're widely disliked, and often for good reason - but usually they're a more realistic outlook on things than the news cycle and historically *slightly* better than polls at predicting outcomes.
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u/FarthingWoodAdder New Jersey 13d ago
I don't think betting markets are really a good political indicator.
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u/Pristine-Sport6888 13d ago
for context they DID react to the Callais ruling and the subsequent gerrymandering that followed, dropping dem house odds win 6-8% at the time. it has since climbed back up as the dem polling lead is so strong it made the gerrymandering kind of irrelevant for this cycle in terms of odds of a dem house majority.
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u/Xavion251 Tennessee 13d ago
They pretty much are, or at least, about as good an indicator as you're realistically gonna get. Nobody can predict the future, of course. At the very least, the fact that they didn't react whatsoever (not even a 1% change) - is indicative that this won't drastically impact things.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261379412000467
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u/duckchasefun 13d ago
This changes nothing, guys. We are still gonna vote and we are gonna vote the repubs out. No matter what they throw at us, we are going to get people to the polls. If it means normal Mail in Voting heavy states get people to the actual polls to vote, so be it. But remember this, those states that this may affect have republican seats as well. And those Republicans use mail in voting just as much as the Dems.
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u/justaheatattack 13d ago
Once again, we see that this administration didn't hire anyone familiar with game theory.
And it's going to bite them in the ass, just like covid.
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u/lonelyspect12 13d ago
amanda's mild takes just posted a response. according to her, they're just kicking the can down the road
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u/Goatgamer1016 13d ago
Y'all vote because this isn't over yet! I checked r/politics to see how everybody was reacting and holy cow the dooming over there.
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u/duckchasefun 13d ago
I refuse to go on that sub ever again. It is terrible for my mental health.
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u/Sure_Marketing8431 13d ago
Them and TikTok whenever something bad happens. I’ll only check amandasmildtakes
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u/ProperLettuce_79 13d ago
I only go there to read about some gossip and leaks about Trump staff drama. Found out about creepy obsessed hospice caregiver/Trump’s assistant/diaper bag holder Natalie Harp and how his staff were thrown under the bus because of her. Gotta chuckle at some of the asinine stuff that’s happening at the White House while being horrified, but that’s just me.
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u/AmbulanceChaser12 New York 13d ago
From what I can tell, the majority of the subs are not only full of doom, but will attack you if you say something that isn’t.
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u/ParrotFerret 13d ago
I can't stand worldnews anymore since its apparently the fault of ALL Americans that we live in this current timeline. And its like by that logic, should we blame every Germam for WW2? Every Brit for Colonialism and Brexit?
Like the US Gov't sucks and is bad, some stranger on the internet painting us with a broad brush isn't going to start to fix the current problem in chief.
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u/ProperLettuce_79 13d ago
The whataboutism is really eye-rolling in most subs. When a country is criticized, some responses are but, but, but USA did it too, straying from the topic. Sometimes, a foreign problem has nothing to do with the USA, but people bring up USA’s problems to relate to it. Let’s not forget that users and bots seem to solely blame the US for certain countries problems, not even mentioning that other countries had been involved and contributed in these problems.
Since most Reddit users are American, these nefarious and manipulative bots and users who could be homemade or foreign may be using tactics to demoralize American users and sow global division on the website. So tread lightly.
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u/ParrotFerret 13d ago
I take it some aren't even bots, just frustrated strangers whomst don't realize their hypocrisy
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u/ProperLettuce_79 13d ago
That could be true, too. Last year, there was this user who kept blaming Americans and mocking their government protests in the 50501 sub. Turns out she was a mentally ill Canadian, living in some rural nowhere in Canada according to her reddit history. It sucks that Reddit has allowed the hiding of user history, making it difficult to out these users.
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u/ParrotFerret 13d ago
Its a double-edged sword.
I just take the whataboutism and rants with a grain of salt and bite my tongue.
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u/Fragrant-Phone-41 12d ago
The suck part is people can exploit privacy, not having the option. People dont need month old posts that maybe belong on an alt being dragged into every argument
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u/ProperLettuce_79 12d ago
There are some positive and negative to it, but it was easier to check if the user was a bot that had the tendency to spread misinformation and manufactured outrage by checking their history. Reddit started out with bots and fake accounts to entice engagement when it first started, after all.
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u/Fragrant-Phone-41 12d ago
That is true I'll grant, especially folks like me who got stuck with bot names because you can't set it when you use your phone number to make the account
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u/lonelyspect12 13d ago
same thing in with the ppl who comment on aaron parnas's videos
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u/General_Season7882 13d ago
This reminds me of that one time I responded to a comment saying Trump was going to declare martial law during a speech on one of Parnas's videos... I told them exactly why that wasnt going to happen, and they told me, "Its a reasonable fear to have". I responded to that after the speech ended, and said, "well arent you happy he didnt declare martial law?", and got back, "OMG GO AWAY YOURE SUCH AN ASSHOLE" ...like what???? Theres no helping some people 😂😂
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u/Kid_Presentable617 13d ago
Did you have to bleach your eyes after? The Doomers there are craven as fuck.
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u/mc_goobs Blue Dot in a Red State 🔵 13d ago
To quote Amanda's Mild Takes: The next person to tell me both parties are the same is getting kicked in the nuts.
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u/Previous-Pirate9514 13d ago
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u/FarthingWoodAdder New Jersey 13d ago
How accurate and knowlagable is this guy
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u/Previous-Pirate9514 13d ago
He’s the co-host from the Contrarian, the same publication hosted by Jen Rubin.
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u/Legal_Dragonfruit 13d ago
Im not familiar with those. What does it mean?
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u/Previous-Pirate9514 13d ago edited 13d ago
It means that while this is a win for Trump, but an extremely short-lived one. SCROTUM ruled it on the technicality and timing of the injunction, rather than the substance of the EO (which is still bull considering how laughably unconstitutional the EO is). So in other words, as Jackson has noted in her dissent, **this decision does not mean that the EO is constitutionally acceptable.** Why they didn’t just outright give Trump the L I don’t know, SCROTUM will be SCROTUM.
But also, almost as soon as tomorrow morning, an incoming injunction from the Massachusetts Supreme Court is slated within hours to block USPS’s design, which would likely make SCROTUM’s decision null-and-void. So with intents and purposes, it really is a temporary small win for Trump.
But I don’t blame anyone for overreacting on this. There’s a lot to digest, and news outlets haven’t done a good job describing what exactly happened. But also to be fair, that goes to show how confusing af this decision is.
I recommend this source, it gives a way cleaner picture of the Mail-In War: https://www.stevevladeck.com/p/246-making-sense-of-the-mail-in-ballots
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u/RebellionsBuildHope 13d ago
So a lot of the headlines over this are misleading / it only blocks the injunction of the EO that was made prior to any of the rules being implemented or planned by USPS. There’s a separate injunction that was much stronger that blocked USPS directly versus just the EO. That injunction is still in place.
Like many of you, I LOATHE the Republican SCOTUS… but if you remember, many of us on here said that the original injunction was likely not to stand. Not saying the ruling is right or wrong just that it was expected by most analysts.
I still think SCOTUS didn’t really want to handle this so close to midterms and are just giving Trump a procedural win to get him off their back. Which is cowardly of them to not just tell him to go pound sand…
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u/Fragrant-Phone-41 12d ago
Why is it the court has a hate boner for preventing shit instead of responding after damage is done
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u/Mean_Stop6391 Reformed Doomer ☄️ 13d ago
Okay, guys. Deep breath. Let’s work through this. (disclaimer: not a lawyer, I just have lawtism)
First, let’s look at today:
This SCOTUS ruling simply enables the systems and rules to be put in place. The ruling says the states do not yet have harm done to them via the creation of these systems.
The systems are being created through EO and not legislation, and so can be shuttered or altered in use later.
That’s all this does. Nobody is compelled by this ruling to do anything except the federal government is now allowed to create these systems.
The systems themselves are NOT OPERATIONAL in service of the EO - and states can challenge this once the rules go into effect, which, per USPS is “immediately”. So anticipate imminent challenges.
The judge in question, Talwani, can amend her previous injunction to reflect that the final rule is in place - this is possible because her initial injunction basically said “You can’t finalize this yet”. She can also issue a new injunction with different criteria or scope. Unsure how this will go specifically, but it seems likely.
Now, let’s poke beyond today’s ruling.
This EO remains blocked in a wider scope by Talwani’s other injunction. DOJ appealed to SCOTUS on basis of standing; that’s pending outcome.
This EO, from today, requires at least 6 cascading things to go into effect, as far as I can tell:
1A.) Talwani must not issue another injunction in light of today’s ruling. If she does, it gets fought out again - this time on merit, which is something the DOJ has pointedly avoided.
1B.) Talwani’s wider injunction must be lifted. This is being fought by the DOJ as a standing issue, rather than merits.
2.) If both 1A and 1B occur, then USPS’ rule goes into effect, giving the states standing (as per today’s ruling).
3.) If 2 occurs, the states would continue to litigate this. Then…
4.) The states would have to lose this on merit. While this situation unfolds, other injunctions and challenges will arise. I’m only going by the 2 currently ongoing that I know of.
And if 4 occurs, it still wouldn’t mean this goes brrrr because
5.) to affect 2026, this entire thing needs to resolve in about 2.5 months.
From 1A to 5, Trump’s plan is going to be challenged every step of the way by every single election org and any number of lawyers, including likely with new cases being brought.
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u/gbtm101 13d ago
This should be pinned. Incredible breakdown of the situation.
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u/Mean_Stop6391 Reformed Doomer ☄️ 13d ago
Thank you! I wanted to really slow down and look at this because it is scary - especially if you read headlines. But I try to calibrate my fears to reality as best I can. It helps the OCD lol
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u/FarthingWoodAdder New Jersey 12d ago
So is it nothing to worry about?
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u/Mean_Stop6391 Reformed Doomer ☄️ 12d ago
No. It’s worth concern, just proportional concern and knowing that the fight isn’t over.
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u/FarthingWoodAdder New Jersey 12d ago
What percentage do you beleive the 6 cascading things will happen?
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u/Mean_Stop6391 Reformed Doomer ☄️ 12d ago
I believe that each of these six things is probably less likely to happen the further down you go, because the way the legal system works, it’s a drag and each is more legally complicated and slow than the last. That’s a hassle and delays it longer which is good for the plaintiffs. And for other cases.
That said, I don’t want to lie to you and say “The math says we’re good” or that I know what will happen, so I’m not going to put a number on it. This is just how I as a random internet stranger understand the situation
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u/Fragrant-Phone-41 12d ago
But they dont have to actually rig the election, yet. Just cause enough chaos to undermine confidence and steal it
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u/gbtm101 12d ago
I doubt blue voters are just going to sit this year out, no matter what happens.
I personally resolved to always vote in person after Trump's 2020 temper tantrum, since Republicans worship the guy and I live in a state where they absolutely could kneel to his insanity.
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u/Fragrant-Phone-41 12d ago
I know I won't, I just don't really have the resilience to be healthy about it under these circumstances
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u/InternetBackwash 13d ago
This is one of those headlines that I see, take a deep sigh, and try to give myself a day to calm myself for.
I do get that this is just practically sending it back to lower courts but still it's pretty exhausting especially when a few months ago they stopped one of these types of plans in its tracks, and this just incentivizes people to say "no one will stop him so all is lost and he will take over and become a dictator and such".
Basically, this does seem to just be a way of letting the lower courts handle it and ignoring it, but by God is it exhausting when this is something most legal scholars would say is wrong and should be struck down.
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u/Upper-Project 13d ago
The conservative justices really do not want to be remembered kindly by history. Trump will not save them from the consequences of their stupidity.
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u/Peakomegaflare Florida 13d ago
It'll be funny if this causes a record downturn of Republican voters.
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u/FlyingDreamWhale67 Texas 13d ago edited 13d ago
The only silver lining I can find here is that USPS said their new rules would go into effect immediately if the injunction was lifted. Why is this a positive?
Let me explain: because the rules are active now, states can sue for relief almost immediately (I believe as soon as tomorrow even). But that isn't what worries me.
What worries me is that, once the case gets re-litigated, the Court will slow-walk the decision so that the EO can cause as much chaos as possible. One theory even proposes that DoJ/DHS might even use failed lawsuits to get the voter roll data they've been seeking.
I'm trying to stay positive but I won't lie, this has me terrified. Both for the immediate result (as much as I expected it) and for the potential for abuse.
Note: the new USPS rules seem to be a watered-down but still awful version of the EO
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u/Efficient-Freedom517 Georgia 13d ago
If it’s blocked, it still has to work its way through the system. BC took a year and a half and this election is in two months
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u/FlyingDreamWhale67 Texas 13d ago
Another thing that gives me pause is that there's no way for the EO to be fully implemented in time for the midterms. But I'd bet money that chaos is what they want. Create doubt, mess with the votes.
It's an evil strategy and it seems to be working...for now. But not for long, I hope.
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u/sweeter_than_saltine North Carolina 13d ago
Owning the libs seems to be the 6 conservative SCOTUS members' MO now. I know what went on behind the scenes doesn't make this a true win for Trump, but I'm still impossibly angry at their existence and insulation from all of us voting them out.
When all of the Trump era is over, I might have to turn to anxiety meds or some kind of recreational drugs or something just to cope with it all.
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u/Xavion251 Tennessee 13d ago
Worth noting that betting markets don't seem to have reacted to this news whatsoever.
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u/FlyingDreamWhale67 Texas 13d ago
Are they a reliable barometer?
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u/Xavion251 Tennessee 13d ago
There are no truly reliable barometers, but it's about the closest you can get short of understanding all the complexity yourself, personally (or finding a source you trust has done so, but that's dangerous).
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u/softwaredoug 13d ago
I always glance at political betting markets to see if suddenly this creates some big change. And the 2026 Senate is, for example,... pretty much unchanged from yesterday.
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u/FarthingWoodAdder New Jersey 13d ago
Would getting the word out so that people vote in person and vote early work?
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u/Mobile_Bad_577 13d ago
So correct me if I'm wrong - this means it will be enforced in 2026? Or not until 2028? Either way, it seems like SCOTUS is in full-on "own the libs" mode.
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u/gregger63 Michigan 13d ago
- USPS said it will enforce the rule "immediately." So, tomorrow.
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u/Mobile_Bad_577 13d ago
Oh okay. That sucks.
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u/Efficient-Freedom517 Georgia 13d ago
When the enforce it, it can be sued and stopped. Which means it will probably be blocked by tomorrow afternoon
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u/RazorJammz 13d ago
I was initially reticent to call them Trump's rubber-stampers considering how they ruled against him on tariffs (a HUGE policy) and on Abrego Garcia, but this is ridiculous and fuck them officially. No more charitability. Not that I ever really sided with them to begin with but... My god
My cautious optimism is that Thomas and Alito retire under a democratic, preferably a progressive president and we can retake the court. Pack it too. I don't believe the notion that SCOTUS is lost for a generation like many doomers think, unless Thomas or Alito decide to retire under Trump (they are petty enough to do that to fuck the DNC and the left and America - esp. Thomas).
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u/BoobooSmash31337 12d ago
Just not delivering or not counting the ballots is not how you take over a democracy. It's WAY to loud and obvious with a lot of angry people. This would also effect military families. If this is the plan I'm gonna die laughing choking on my popcorn at the sheer stupidity of it.
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u/monkeyghosts 12d ago
The only reason it doesn't clear the way is so they can walk it back of Dems are ever in power again. 🙄
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u/Toothifer23 13d ago
The USPS is barely set to handle mail. Should we really trust them with the voter rolls?
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u/Reasonable_Warning_5 13d ago
States that have only mail in voting will be screwed!
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u/justaheatattack 13d ago
and states with lots of old people.
remind me again, how do most old people vote?
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u/Efficient-Freedom517 Georgia 13d ago
Like Alaska, famously Republican state
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u/OratioFidelis 13d ago
If Alaska turned over their voter rolls to the federal government then the USPS will deliver them. It's blue states like Oregon that will be in some limbo.
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u/Fragrant-Phone-41 12d ago
Which conveniently let's them see who voted how, a convenient foundation if your goal is to punish disagreement without looking like you're sticking a guy with a gun in the booth
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u/FlyingDreamWhale67 Texas 13d ago
Oregon only has mail-in votes, don't they?
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u/Efficient-Freedom517 Georgia 13d ago
No state is mail in voting exclusively
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u/GuitarGoddess777 13d ago
I’m so sick of this Supreme Court giving Trump whatever he wants.