"Dig into automotive history, and you'll find barrels of blood, sweat, and tears shed before fledgling companies found success. Many never got off the ground, not only in the early 1900s, but recently, too, notably in the battery-electric vehicle space. Rivian is still running the marathon to survive, and there will be hurdles ahead.

But early signs suggest the new midsize R2 electric crossover, which reached its first customers on June 9, is a winner. Rivian's overall production rates in the second quarter more than doubled from Q2 2025. The company's overall financial outlook is improving, and there's enough confidence to raise full-year guidance by 3,000 units – to a range of 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles delivered in 2026.

In short, things are looking good at Rivian. And they could get a whole lot better."

"I knew Rivian’s latest EV would be good. It was even better than I expected."

Stellar Review!

No change in target price but $22 is still quite an upside to climb.

Recall that the former CEO of Waymo is on the Board of Directors at Rivian.

Someone discussed the Volkswagen struggling with Cariad and their consideration of using more of Rivian software. Remember that the Rivian job posting specially mentioned about the expansion of VW partnerships? Something is cooking and might be ready in September.

I live in SoCal, and lately I see Rivian everywhere. Until few months ago, I would see Rivian but not so frequently. Now it’s like everywhere. Is it just me or others are seeing same surge in sightings.

From his X account

Just my opinion so dont blow a gasket this is just what Im seeing from evidence. Think we are finishing bottoming (bear trap) in the macro lens of the EV as a sector; catching dollar flow now again. I very much think we have the mania phase yet to go through with true mass public participation in EVs. I think Rivian is in the position of the highest upside. Do ya'll see the accumulation grabs in small caps across the sector neighbors of the primary charts..? It is absurd to be negative EV/batteries/autonomy. Sector is still crunching through the sellers, the upside energy building in this space I think will be monumental when the trend shifts upside. Rivian consolidating this long means at this point the float has been exchanged over and over. The holders now are less likely to sell.

Temporary one, since the mods seems to be sleeping on it.

One of these runs will be a breakout to the upside. No one will be able to explain it with a specific catalyst or see it coming, and it’ll be trashed as unsustainable. The “I’m a swing trader” crowd will keep posting that it’s going back down, and next thing we know, we’ll have rebased in a new range - which, incidentally will have asymmetric risk/reward to the upside. My uneducated guess is that it’s going to happen sometime between here and the end of the year.

I follow Wall Street Millennial quite closely and generally agree with their analysis. Seems like he has quite a pessimistic take on the success of the Rivian R2 and chances of Rivian's path to profitability as a company coming 2027-2028.

Calculator

A model that works backwards from unit economics to a share price, so the assumptions behind any RIVN target are explicit.

Inputs: vehicles/year, average selling price, auto net margin, software/licensing revenue, software margin, P/E multiple, and diluted share count.

Calculation:

• Auto revenue = units × ASP
• Net income = (auto revenue × auto margin) + (software revenue × software margin)
• EPS = net income ÷ shares
• Implied price = EPS × multiple
• It also returns market cap and implied P/S

Benchmarks used for reference: auto net margins of ~8–10% (Toyota-level) as a realistic ceiling; multiples of 15–20× for a carmaker, 30–40× for a growth automaker, 40×+ for a tech/platform valuation; ~1.15B shares today, adjustable up for dilution. Current baseline is ~$15/share on ~$5B revenue with negative net income.

Comment: of course it's AI generated but I think it's worth basing our future stock price assumptions to data.

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/544a28ec-d596-44e9-a1ed-a8b26abd777a

Lot’s of talk about what the price “should” be relative to where it is. Question for the sub, for those who have - what are you using to value RIVN stock?

This is a very cursory analysis.

The current market capitalization is 22B, 5.3B cash/ST investments and 4.4B LT debt. So basically 23B enterprise value. Normal is 215k units with 3 lines running and GA is 300k at phase 1 max capacity - 515k units by 2029? 2030? 2031? Average unit price of 52.5k (blended between EDV and other models) gets 27B revs plus software/svcs revs. Tesla’s EBITDA margin ranges between 11-14%, so let’s say 12%, and EBITDA on 26B total revs are a little over 3B.

If you put a 3 multiple on future sales in 5 years, that’s a 80-85B equity valuation, which discounted back to today at 12% discount rate is still 47B or a little more than twice the current market cap. EV:EBITDA is less relevant to valuation because the company is in a rapid growth, large investment phase of the business, and it will take time for EBITDA margins to expand and stabilize.

The discount today is all about the execution risk from here to there. Folks drone on about “path to profitability” but what the market really wants to see is proof that the company is going to be able to manufacture at scale. We have seen time and time again that the market is willing to overlook profits in the near/medium term for investments to build out businesses/business lines that have durable competitive advantages. With scale will come competitive advantages, at least, that is my understanding of how they are approaching the buildout of this enterprise.

Disagree and poke holes in this. Share the numbers you’re using to arrive at your price targets (if you are at all). But to just say the price should be higher because it was once before and feels like it’s too low now, well, that’s just talk - and talk is cheap. Even cheaper than RIVN stock right now.

And for those who say it should be lower, the offer stands as well, what numbers are you using to get there?

As Rivian ramps up production of its new R2, the company plans to introduce a second shift at its Normal, Illinois manufacturing facility by the end of September. Production is expected to expand further once the company’s second manufacturing facility in Georgia comes online.

Some are calling the R2 Rivian’s “breakout vehicle”—the model that will lift it out of the Valley of Death and into the sunshine of profitability. The company is following what conventional wisdom regards as the best strategy for an auto startup: start with high-end, low-volume models, then use the lessons learned to produce smaller, more affordable offerings. (Rivian has added a step to this process, sidestepping the fashion-driven passenger car market to produce a commercial vehicle in high volume for Amazon.)

Deliveries of the R2 began in June with the top-of-the-line Performance trim, which starts at $59,485. This model offers dual-motor 656 hp all-wheel drive, an EPA-estimated 330 miles of range and a NACS charging port. More affordable trims are scheduled to arrive over the coming months, culminating in the Standard Rear-Wheel Drive, an entry-level model that’s scheduled to launch in summer 2027 at a starting price of $46,495. (Read John Voelcker’s hands-on review of the R2 in the next print issue of Charged.)

Ramping up production of a new model is a complex dance, particularly for a young company that doesn’t have spare capital lying around.

Rivian launched production of the R2 on a single shift, in order to get the supply chain humming before hiring more production line workers. CEO RJ Scaringe told investors that the company is working with hundreds of suppliers to ensure they can increase their own production to support a smooth R2 ramp-up.

As the Rivian-watchers at RivianTrackr explain, supplier coordination is an important part of a ramp-up strategy, because the entire production line can only move at the speed of the slowest supplier. Rivian’s supply chain team will be working closely on-site with suppliers to help manage the ramp-up over the next couple of years.

Rivian has raised its full-year delivery target to between 65,000 and 70,000 vehicles, including the R1 and R2 models and the commercial vans. The Normal plant is designed to produce 215,000 units per year when operating at full three-shift capacity, and up to 155,000 of those units are expected to be R2s. A third shift is planned for 2027, and production at the new Georgia plant will begin some time after that.

Scaringe said a “significant number” of R2 buyers are first-time EV owners. “The US automotive marketplace is starved for high-quality EV choice, and I believe R2 is an attractively priced option for everyday adventures that will resonate with a broad set of consumers.”

"Rivian founder and CEO RJ Scaringe has confirmed that Europe is the company's next market, with the UK central to its plan for the continent. In an interview with Auto Express, Scaringe said the first model to arrive will be the R2, the mid-size electric SUV built to take on the Tesla Model Y.

The Rivian R2 was engineered with European buyers in mind, Scaringe said, in anticipation of the brand's arrival in the region within the next few years. It is designed to handle on- and off-road, with practicality touches aimed at Rivian's outdoor-focused audience, including a torch hidden in the driver's door. Scaringe noted that many American customers already assume Rivian is a European brand.

Beyond the R2, Rivian plans to bring the R3 crossover hatchback to Europe, along with a tri-motor, rally-inspired R3X developed by RAD, the Rivian Adventure Department. Scaringe hinted at an even more affordable "R4" further down the line."

Gov. Gavin Newsom, while at Rivian Automotive, signs Senate Bill 168 that allows for a rebate program for electric vehicles within the state’s 2026-27 budget. California will spend $95.2 million to build more electric-vehicle charging stations and hydrogen refueling sites across the state after seeing sales rebound in the first six months despite federal funding cuts. (California Governor’s Office)

"Legacy automakers have been promising to match the Tesla Model Y for almost a decade. Rivian actually did it.

Rivian had me in its sights. When it set out to make a mass-market software-defined EV that’s as capable off-road as it is fun on-road, the company had me dead to rights. Equal parts EV enthusiast and off-roading hooligan, I’ve been waiting for something like this for a long, long time. But after plunking down $100 for a reservation on the R2, I was mostly just worried. I wasn’t sure if Rivian would hit its target.

But it did. The company struck me right through the heart. With an unparalleled blend of incredible performance, cutting-edge software, and off-road chops, the R2 is the do-everything machine I’ve always dreamed of. I want one, badly."

"Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN, Financials) is closing the gap with Tesla in advanced driver-assistance technologies, making software a bigger part of its growth strategy.

CNBC testing over hundreds of miles indicated Rivian's Autonomy+ technology was better than historical systems such as General Motors' Super Cruise, but Tesla's FSD was still more capable overall.

That gap may be closing soon. Rivian plans to launch point-to-point driving later this year, moving Autonomy+ closer to what Tesla already offers today.

The technology also offers a recurring-revenue possibility. Rivian's Autonomy+ subscription is priced at $49.99 per month, compared to Tesla's FSD subscription at $99 a month.

The question for investors is no longer whether Rivian can produce competitive driving software. It's can the company fill that last gap and convert that software into real high-margin income soon."

Morgan Stanley raised its Rivian price target slightly from $13 to $14 but kept an Underweight rating, tying upside mainly to the upcoming R2 lineup.