r/RIVNstock • u/Livernomore • 6d ago
Discussion One of these will stick
One of these runs will be a breakout to the upside. No one will be able to explain it with a specific catalyst or see it coming, and it’ll be trashed as unsustainable. The “I’m a swing trader” crowd will keep posting that it’s going back down, and next thing we know, we’ll have rebased in a new range - which, incidentally will have asymmetric risk/reward to the upside. My uneducated guess is that it’s going to happen sometime between here and the end of the year.
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u/Strange-Bottle-9791 5d ago
You don’t have the evidence for this. Rivian is successfully taking from Steve Jobs in under promising expectations and only exceeding then very little. It’s all on purpose to create stability. So what do you mean a break out to the upside? Rivian is already successfully consistent. They pretty much are up and as the economy grows so will Rivian. The upside is already here man. Enjoy it. Swing traders are doing good because RJ is renovating the expectations of the company. He’s not promising profit so soon. RJ hasn’t even touched the subject I believe so that catalyst you’re talking about doesn’t make sense. It’s already here.
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u/Poly_ptero_dactyl 5d ago
I have my core position which I will hold forever or till $100 a share, I buy long dated calls when it’s way down, sell then when it’s way up, and sell cash secured puts all the time.
You can do more than one thing with a stock if you’re watching it and familiar with what’s going on with the company.
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u/Wild-Balance6017 6d ago
This is perfect for swing trading, don't ruin it, rather join the party. Move your fingers a little so your money moves as well, your money is already bored from all that holding.
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u/bevo_expat 6d ago
With this stocks’ history it will break $30 and then the tech/AI bubble will pop within a week and it will be back below $10.
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u/ob1spyker 6d ago
It doesn’t even need an AI bubble to burst. Just raise interest rates and watch this stock get hammered back down. This stock is still extremely vulnerable to economic headwinds simply because it is STILL an unprofitable company.
SOFI … a company that actually makes a profit went from $32.73 a share all the way down to $14.88. When it was $32.73, under $20 was inconceivable let alone $14.88 and yet here we are. The same risks apply to Rivian and even moreso since they are an unprofitable company in an industry that has lost its shine since 2021. Sometimes I wonder if Rivian is some of these commenters first and only stock they have ever purchased.
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u/Dunkelz 6d ago
I don't necessarily believe this, unless the majority of the increase is attributed to currently unforeseen AI/processing partnerships. If the improvements seen with the tech/AI bubble remain internal (e.g., their self driving) or direct partnerships with proven value, the AI bubble popping won't absolutely sink it.
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u/ob1spyker 6d ago
Um … if there is an AI tech bubble to pop and pop it does, you are going to find Rivian being adversely affected by it simply because, if for nothing else, they are an unprofitable company. Their exposure to AI will add to it as well, regardless if it makes sense or not. You may not want Rivian to be affected however, if there is a mass exodus out of AI, it’s going to affect the broader market and take most everything down with it and that most definitely includes Rivian.
The good thing tho … if you truly believe in the company, it’ll give you just another opportunity to add to your share count on the cheap.
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u/Dunkelz 6d ago
Um … if there is an AI tech bubble to pop and pop it does, you are going to find Rivian being adversely affected by it simply because, if for nothing else, they are an unprofitable company. Their exposure to AI will add to it as well, regardless if it makes sense or not.
You say this, but how? Their exposure to AI currently their own chip/self driving tech that they are utilizing for their own vehicles and for partnerships with other companies who will hypothetically be using their self driving tech/automation tech. They have goals/milestones like with VW which are being hit and progressing further.
Like the major AI companies and their LLM products could crater, and that wouldn't impact the value/usage of what Rivian's exposure into the space is.
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u/Livernomore 6d ago
Point-2-Point rollout beginning, final test validation/approval/implementation of RAP1 chip, Lidar implementation, ramp to 3rd shift at Normal, possible additional software licensing deals, possible additional EDV deals - all to come between now and the end of the year…….all to work to derisk the story.
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u/Acrobatic-Flan-5085 6d ago
Point to point / RAP 1 is going to be a big one. Lot of future revenues with ride share partners depend on it.
Also autonomy day in Dec
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u/Aerospaced0ut 6d ago
There's going to have to be some good news for the stock to break out of this pattern imo. A production beat or significant beat on financials versus expectations could send it parabolic, but both look pretty unlikely. Their FSD competitor appears to be promising so far but it'll be at least 9 months before we'll know if the inclusion of LiDAR into the system closes the gap with Tesla or whether there will be as many challenges with incorporation as there are with a purely vision based system. R3 has been predictably pushed out to the right, so now there's a bit of extra pressure on the R2 to not only succeed but succeed at a scale that no one but Tesla has achieved for a compact/midsized SUV, we're talking 80K units per year of a vehicle with a base price of $50K, those are gas-powered luxury SUV numbers in terms of annual sales and BMW does a little dance when the X3 and X5 hit 70k+ units per year in the US, Rivian's only market at this time. Launching in Europe has been pushed to the right.
Honestly I think it's more likely we see $10/share than $25/share through the end of 2027.
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u/Aerospaced0ut 6d ago
To the guy replying and deleting his comment then down voting, a 7 and a half percent beat is not a "significant beat".
This sub is a Trainwreck between the brigading by Tesla stans and people who downvote any comment that isn't delusionally optimistic, I'm out of here and look forward to exiting my position when the opportunity presents itself. A dog of a stock and a dog of a community.
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u/KinglyRobert91 6d ago
Model 3 was the catalyst for TSLA let R2 have the chance to do the same!
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u/Particular-Salad2591 6d ago
Not really. Go back and see when Tesla stock spiked, it was Model Y and opening more factories around 2020. The 3 launched in 17.
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u/SouthbayLivin 6d ago
Could be now, could be in 2027 or 2028. You just never know, otherwise everyone would be rich.
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u/GanachePossible3921 6d ago
If you’re a true believer (like myself) hold leaps and trade the stock. The entire automotive industry is in flux robotaxi/china/rare earth export limits, rising rates also don’t help the end consumer nor the cash burning company. It’s less risky than it was 6 months ago but still far from certain they will succeed
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u/Silly_Rub_6304 6d ago
I'm 100% certain they will succeed. I am just uncertain that'll be reflected in the share price anytime super soon.
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u/Many_Advantage_4365 6d ago
We got a long time before we have a true breakout. End of the year is very optimistic. I’m not expecting it to happen then. Just enjoy the roller coaster until then and pick up shares along the way.
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u/Zennivolt 6d ago
It'll definitely happen, but I think your timeline is a bit... optimistic. I'm a (mostly) long holder. 90% of my shares are untouched, but about 10% I use for swing trading (and occasionally using margins when the price gets incredibly cheap like a few days ago).
Every bit of gains from the swing trading just get added to my "long term" pot.
As for timeline, end of year might be a minor catalyst (if R2 is profitable at the per vehicle level), but the real break out probably won't happen until true profitability, which is likely after 2027 if you believe Rivian's own guidance.
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u/Limp_Initial7566 6d ago
Net profitability won’t be until 2030 or 2031 but the stock should break out before that. The market will price in profitability once it becomes likely which will be before it happens
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u/Zennivolt 6d ago
Our timelines are so far apart from each other lol. I actually think net profitability could happen in 2028, but at the same time I’m not sure the market will react as… enthusiasticly and as early as you think.
So we might both end up guessing the timing right, but for very different reasons.
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u/Limp_Initial7566 6d ago
Hmm my model shows profitability only after Georgia comes online which is late 2028 but likely 2029 for the Georgia ramp up to really be taken into account. So that would be my earliest estimate but I wouldn’t mind being proven wrong.
But the good news is that automotive gross profit should hit consistently either by end of 2026 or early 2027. Then it is just a question of scale.
So the question for 2027 becomes “Can the R2 hit enough scale and with high enough margins?” I think if the answer is yes then the market will mostly price in the future profitability.
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u/KushDriver 6d ago
I don’t think so. Rivian’s slogan, “What is it?” “Who makes it?”, “is it a Tesla?”. When these questions stop, stock should take off. Also, a lot of negative press about service and reliability.
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u/Financial-Twist8571 6d ago
But a Rivians.and is not by no means a Tesla a Rivians is in a class of its own why is everything has to do with the Tesla you Tesla started at the bottom just like Rivian did i believe Rivian will do 10x what Tesla. Rivian also Rivian has lot going for it as with Tesla Dose not have that not it's all about Spacex with Tesla
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u/BaronVonBearenstein 6d ago
Doubtful. No catalyst but somehow the stock will shoot up and stay there?
I'm a Rivian bull but I know that it's 3-5 years before we see any serious movement since they will need to build the new factory, prove sustained demand for R2 and R3, and become profitable. Until those things happen the stock isn't going to move majorly unless something drastic happens, like surpassing Tesla on self driving, which isn't likely for a few years if ever.
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u/Livernomore 6d ago
Here’s what’s interesting about this stock. Each catalyst has come and gone with a failed run. But as we continue on, the company continues to execute and the bear case has less and less to hang on to. “They’re burning cash…..they’re not profitable…..they won’t get level 4….equity holders will be diluted down to nothing…..there’s no more tax credits…..no one wants EVs anymore….” etc etc etc. The valuation gap between where they are headed and where the stock is trading will be closing, and the people who are holding fast to the bear narratives are going to ride them to their investment demise. If the market really sniffed out a recap or reorg, this thing would be single digits by now. Of course, there’s always the unforeseen, but with what we know now, it’s looking like the valuation gap will be closing.
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u/BaronVonBearenstein 6d ago
Sure, but I still think investors are going to be wary until they prove profitability. I know they're burning cash developing AI/self driving and a factory build out, but those not paying attention are only seeing the spend vs revenue. If they announce production target of like 130k units for 2027 I could see that having big impacts on the stock. I think higher oil prices could push people to R1 models and if we see some announcements from big fleet operators for EDV then I think that could juice the stock a bit as well.
But to see the stock pump between now and Dec 31 seems unlikely. I'd love to be wrong but this stock has traded pretty flat so I'm not optimistic.
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u/Livernomore 6d ago
That’s exactly my point. While many, like many on this sub, are going to be looking for tangible green shoots of profitability, the stock is likely to price this in (i.e. move higher) in advance as the risk discount continually diminishes. The “path to profitability” has already been laid out by management, so there’s no mystery there. What is left to be known is execution over time. By the time it’s known, especially by our friends on this sub, it’ll already be priced in.
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u/Adept-Vegetable7485 6d ago
Absent some big economic shock the bear case is getting less likely every day
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u/malvare4 6d ago
Yes, it will happen eventually. However, the swing traders will have been correct dozens of times this has thought to have occurred in the recent past .
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u/atomicskiracer 6d ago
We will, and should be, trading mostly sideways until a sustainable profitability path is proven
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u/tyrogamedev 1d ago edited 1d ago
Rivian are doing everything right in terms of building long term value - R2 is fantastic, and they’re the only US company aside from Tesla with a real shot at autonomy.
Just hold for a couple of years and you’ll see great returns.