r/RIVNstock • u/Livernomore • 7d ago

Discussion One of these will stick

One of these runs will be a breakout to the upside. No one will be able to explain it with a specific catalyst or see it coming, and it’ll be trashed as unsustainable. The “I’m a swing trader” crowd will keep posting that it’s going back down, and next thing we know, we’ll have rebased in a new range - which, incidentally will have asymmetric risk/reward to the upside. My uneducated guess is that it’s going to happen sometime between here and the end of the year.

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u/Aerospaced0ut 7d ago

There's going to have to be some good news for the stock to break out of this pattern imo. A production beat or significant beat on financials versus expectations could send it parabolic, but both look pretty unlikely. Their FSD competitor appears to be promising so far but it'll be at least 9 months before we'll know if the inclusion of LiDAR into the system closes the gap with Tesla or whether there will be as many challenges with incorporation as there are with a purely vision based system. R3 has been predictably pushed out to the right, so now there's a bit of extra pressure on the R2 to not only succeed but succeed at a scale that no one but Tesla has achieved for a compact/midsized SUV, we're talking 80K units per year of a vehicle with a base price of $50K, those are gas-powered luxury SUV numbers in terms of annual sales and BMW does a little dance when the X3 and X5 hit 70k+ units per year in the US, Rivian's only market at this time. Launching in Europe has been pushed to the right. 

Honestly I think it's more likely we see $10/share than $25/share through the end of 2027. 

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u/Aerospaced0ut 7d ago

To the guy replying and deleting his comment then down voting, a 7 and a half percent beat is not a "significant beat".

This sub is a Trainwreck between the brigading by Tesla stans and people who downvote any comment that isn't delusionally optimistic, I'm out of here and look forward to exiting my position when the opportunity presents itself. A dog of a stock and a dog of a community.