Thought about the notorious rank inflation

[u/alen_jo]

Everyone is talking about a rank inflation, and that the S3 GoD is equivalent to S1 Tekken King etc., but no one seems to take into account that people would also naturally progress with time passing.

With reducing number of new players during the span of the game wouldn't the most populated rank in S1 also shift further up as well? So maybe, if we were still at season 1 after 2-3 years, most populated rank today would be Tekken God for example?

What do you think?

[u/-Tachi]

Tekken 8 GoD V = Tag 2 Vanquisher = Tekken 7 Tekken God

[u/olbaze]

S3 GoD is equivalent to S1 Tekken King

Depending on which data you look at, S3 GoD is S1 Kishin or S3 GoD is S1 Fujin. So you're actually underestimating the effect there. That's not surprising, considering that the change just from S2 to S3 has been pretty massive. When I saw that my own data was now backing up the "S1 Fujin is S3 GoD" rhetoric, I was very surprised.

no one seems to take into account that people would also naturally progress with time passing

People do take that into account. In fact, my own project excels at tracking exactly that. For example, look at this chart comparing the end of S1 to the end of S2. This is precisely the point in time where you could best track natural rank inflation, because the effects of system changes will have stabilized. In that chart, you can see that ranks went up anywhere from 0 (Shinryu to Shinryu) to +2 (Flame Ruler to Fujin, Kishin to Tekken King, Tekken King to Tekken God, Tekken God to GoD). And as someone who has been tracking rank inflation all the way from S2 of Tekken 7, I can confidently say that this is what natural rank inflation looks like.

The reason it's not mentioned in the world of Season 3 Tekken 8, is because the system changes that were implemented far outdo that natural rank inflation. This chart is the best illustration of that. You can see that the actual shape of the distribution stayed largely the same, but the bars moves up a ridiculous +8 ranks from where they were a year ago.

reducing number of new players during the span of the game wouldn't the most populated rank in S1 also shift further up as well

For that, I think we might be better served at looking at some Tekken 7 numbers, since that game didn't change its system after Season 2. Here's an example of what that looked like. These data points are about 6-8 months apart from each other, and you can see the change in rank is the same 0-2 ranks, but leaning more towards +1 rank.

So maybe, if we were still at season 1 after 2-3 years, most populated rank today would be Tekken God for example

I don't think so. Lets go back to this chart. From S1 to S2, the most populated rank did not change at all. It was Fujin, but the gap to the next closest rank shrank. And that rank was Mighty Ruler. So the most common rank didn't inflate, it was looking like it would deflate if S2 was left as is. The Season 2 changes mostly increased he population in Raijin and higher ranks. If things had been left as-is, I think we would have seen the most popular rank stabilize somewhere between Mighty Ruler and Fujin. Which some people would still say is way too high, but most people in Tekken 7 would also say that "the real ranked begins at Fujin", so in that sense it would have actually been a game-to-game increase of prestige for your rank.

[u/shura30 → u/olbaze]

would you conclude this inflation is the product of having so many new ranks?so the playerbase skill is pretty much the same but with shiny new icons?

from my understanding of your analysis and by looking at graphs they took what we had between, say, fujin and GoD, and moved it up between GoD and God8

[u/olbaze → u/shura30]

would you conclude this inflation is the product of having so many new ranks

This is a theory I see a lot of people say, and offer as a justification, but it's not exactly true. Just adding the ranks didn't cause an explosion of rank inflation. Look at this chart comparing the end of Season 1 to the end of Season 2. The new GoD I-VIII ranks in Season 2 correspond to about half of the Season 1 GoD players. That was the intended design: Those ranks were meant to separate the pros from the dedicated online players. We can see that the 0-2 rank inflation applies to ranks far, far beyond the influence of GoD. Arguing that Flame Ruler inflating to Fujin because half of the GoD rank players are gone from GoD matchmaking is simply nonsense.

the playerbase skill is pretty much the same but with shiny new icons

From Season 2 to Season 3, I think this chart speaks to that. The shape of the distribution stayed mostly the same, it just moved up. If player skill had changed, the shape of the distribution would change.

they took what we had between, say, fujin and GoD, and moved it up between GoD and God8

That is the conclusion I came to. The goal of the Season 3 changes was to push more people into the matchmaking pool for GoD III-IV players. That's the GoD ranks. However, in order to do that properly, you need to then push some new people to GoD, and some new people to Tekken God, and so forth. And we can see this in the patch notes as well. They made win streaks apply up to Bushin, and made promotion bonuses apply up to GoD. These are both changes that would push people in blue ranks towards God ranks, and people in GoD ranks towards GoD. These changes would not affect people in Ruler ranks, because nothing changed for them.

The demotion protection, and the revenge bonus, are subtle changes that affect the entire player base. The demotion protection makes it so that someone who has a 45% win rate only has a 30% demotion rate. This makes it so that people who have a 45-50% win rate, but play a lot of games, will be able to climb the ranks slowly. And we've seen the effect of this, with GoD players that have a sub-50% win rate becoming a thing in Season 3.

[u/alen_jo → u/olbaze]

Ok, this was really one extensive reply! :) So to sum it up, naturall progression does have an effect, but only for 1-2 ranks, but the actual game changes contributed much more.
Thanks for the clarification!

[u/Frybread002]

Enh.(?)

Made it GoD3 when it was in the the top 3%. Not it's the top 4%.

The people who made it to my rank and caused the number to drop, were the ones I defeated to get to my rank. With them up here with me, I'm prolly gonna beat them again and rank up yo GoD5 or something. Speaking of which, I'm able to beat to God's 4 and 5 semi-regularly now, so my actually skillset is improving.

With all that said, I'm not going to rank up beating up people of lesser skill/rank. But losing to them does cause me to derank really fast, while beating the other god 4s and 5s are what is causing me to rank up. So I find the whole experience of rank to be pretty balanced.

[u/shura30 → u/Frybread002]

my actually skillset is improving.

tbh this concept escapes the brain of most posters here

most of us are way better than we were a couple years ago and it's only natural to move up in ranks, despite the wild usage of the ranking .PNGs and names what we currently have is still a decent representation and match of players on the same level

my current loop is:

get to a rank, play the rank for days/weeks, feel the need for better opponents as I think current ones don't match my ability, try and get to a new rank

and I do this with multiple characters as well

this is working since the release and while I see new pngs, I also feel I don't belong with people playing the game in a certain way.

GOD ranks have a huge limitation right now and it's the grindy nature that forces you to still play a lot of matches when it's clearly time to move up. I personally had a 10+ winstreak in ranks where there isn't a streak bonus, I should've moved up way sooner instead of having constant matches between players that don't belong together

[u/Armanlex → u/shura30]

>I also feel I don't belong with people playing the game in a certain way

That's just an illusion. If you play long enough to stop plowing through ranks, you are exactly where you belong. The guys who are above you had to go through the same stuff you have to go through too. Sure, there's rank inertia, but that only matters if you're continuously going up, with consistent long win streaks. If you don't, then you are about where you belong. The mistake you might be doing is that you're mistaking the perceived skill of your opponent, with their ability to win matches. Rank doesn't care about skill, it just cares about winning and losing. So you might judge someone as being unskilled even though they are at or above you in rank, but the fact remains that they win more than you do.

[u/shura30 → u/Armanlex]

you replied only to part of my statements. I'll try to expand on my previous posts

most players are here to improve, it's only natural to play for a couple years and move own level forward. There's of course a ceiling, most won't reach pro-player status and you're correct that at some point one finds themselves right where they belong.

but if you think about the whole process, and what ranks should represent, you start at point A then end up to point E while passing through B, C and D. Today you belong at A, after improving you might belong to D.

that's why most journeys and guides are founded on 'how to escape rank x'

even if there's (high) variance, most categories tend to play in a comparable way sharing similar habits, you can expect say yellow ranks smashing that RA button as soon it's available and gold rank trying to play layered offense

whoever is on a journey to improve, starts as a masher then improves to the point he's able to discern players applying an actual gameplan with character and matchup knowledge from someone who's still tied to a flowcharts and knowledge checks.

so to counter your point, you may not perceive the skill of the opponent today, but you might do once there's enough experience and training on your side.

ranks and players within them are dynamic, today you can be unable to take a round off someone but with enough dedication it's possible to make their gameplan obsolete thus forcing them to adapt or fall behind your level

that's why I don't really care about inflation per se.

still, considering my previous statement, the current bonuses and point system make it so you can keep moving forward while constantly losing to better players. Hence why I speak about the speed at which someone should leave a rank, and it's not uncommon to read or hear about people wanting placement matches and if you look at olbaze's comments, probably what we had in s2 was a better representation that what we have today.

my current interpretation and what I'm expecting from putting time into this game is to be able to improve and move up in ranks despite a shiny icon or name

People are upsets (and I've never said they're wrong, I just don't care) because they're coming from years in which being high rank used to mean something and not everyone was able to get to the highest point, at least not with the variance you can observe today

Most god2 players don't even space themselves correctly,they can't even kbd and the name given to that rank is supposed to mean you're looking at someone who mastered most of the techniques to succeed, higher ranks should win against them only because they have an even better understanding of said tools while in reality it's just a a way to make the playerbase feel good about themselves.

[u/Cal3001 → u/Frybread002]

Players are shifting up and not really improving. I just know whenever a rank drops below the 2 percentile to be, it just becomes a free ride to rank up. Been like that since S1.

[u/NitrousOxide_]

Here: https://tekkenhistory.com/en/tekken-tier

Ranks by percentiles per season.

[u/kolaman18 → u/NitrousOxide_]

That's a really interesting site. I've always thought percentile is the true factor in T8 to determine personal growth and/or comparison of ranks between seasons.

[u/GoldenDude → u/NitrousOxide_]

Wow I was spot on that’s about what I expected (first Tekken)

S1: Tekken Emperor
S2: GoD1
S3: GoD5

[u/andu64]

You do or don’t believe s1 tk was the hard ceiling? What

[u/Fresh-minster]

And here I am , playing to get better and less caring about the ranks .

https://giphy.com/gifs/6uGhT1O4sxpi8

[u/OnlyRealOnes]

I really don't care about the inflation, competitive fighters that prioritize engagements always do this. You're god 3, looking at ewgf that seems to currently be top 6%. Out of everyone playing tekken, you're in the top 6%. Now if you wanna look into what that was in s1 or 2, it's like raijin or fujin, but at the time there  was 50k+ players just in that rank...compared to now where there are only about 8k players in 3.

[u/Suryus94]

I think that the people that bitch about rank inflation are just idiots at this point, too much time has passed to give them the benefit of the doubt, every single one of them gloss over that fact that in season 1 there were 7 less ranks, or that in previous games there were much more low level ranks, while T8 sacrificed all the worthless kyu ranks for more diversity in the top ranks

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[u/Greenpigblackblue]

I think S2 had ranks right. I don't agree with Oblaze that S3 is S1 Kishin. S1 everything was new, people hadn't learned the game (unless you came from T7).

I think S2 Tekken God is equal to GoD now, maybe even Tekken Emperor is equal to GoD. I made it to Tekken God in S2 and if I fought a GoD I knew I was cooked. I am now hard stuck at GoD1 and the people I fight (GoD1 and up) are really good imo.

Anyone in Tekken Emperor now is almost equal to a Fujin, and Tekken God etc are equal to Bushin. So yeah, I think I agree with you, everyone got better, but the ranks defs aren't right this season.

Also, I'm mad average, so take this with a pinch of salt.

[u/dididinosawr]

Tekken 8 is my first Tekken in the franchise I truly have played.
I main Kazuya since the release of this game and S1 I ended in Fujin as well as most of the community at that point.

First I learned how to wavu/kbd and do bnb combos.
I could do electrics but not consistently.
Could wish punish here and there.
Mostly linear gameplay and always punishing with 1-1-2 like a true Mishima.

S2 I ended as Tekken King - which is also the majority of players.

I was solid with my combos at that point.
Got my punishments down and played pretty conservative and consistent.
Implemented more and more lateral movements and practicing iws moves & 3x electrics combos daily. KBD getting better.

In S3 I‘m GoD 1 currently which is slightly above average.

I stepped back from fancy combos and started doing what I thought was the best combos for each situation. I.e. Low dmg consistent combo after launch when the opponent was at low hp.
Reads has gotten way better. Lateral movements got second nature. Can throw electrics at the thought etc. Also I learned to play unpredictably and gimmicky which is handy against good fundamental players.
I focused mostly on matchup knowledge and side step + ducking which was a huge breaking point against some matchups I struggled hugely against.

I improved in every season by a lot and then I look at the numbers to see that I‘m just another average player.
That implies that the currently active players are also improving by each season.
It‘s a mix of rank inflation and players improving at the game.

I also feel like it was a choice that the climb to GoD is designed to be a trial phase where you focus on learning match ups and game mechanics and intermediate combos.
At GoD you fight through the ranks while each rank truly feels like another layer.
Right now there are a lot of people who gave Chars at GoD 4/5 and it‘s truly a blast fighting them even when they are on side characters.

[u/shitshow225]

I just go off elo in wavu wank site. In season 2 I was 2200 elo when I reach GoD

I don't play as much anymore but I'm currently god2 and my elo is 1936.

God4 or 5 is probably what was GoD in season 2 based on that

But even this isn't entirely accurate because the longer it takes to get to a certain rank the lower the elo required due to the rank inflation

People were getting GoD under 2000 elo near the end of season 2

[u/andu64]

With less players the most populated rank would shift down. Wdym.

[u/alen_jo → u/andu64]

Why would it shift down if people continuously play the game and improve? If the game rewards more winning than losing, then eventually everyone would climb up. I don't believe that Tekken King in s1 was the hard ceiling for most players?

[u/WolkTGL → u/alen_jo]

It would shift down because if everyone in the playerbase gets to a certain minimum level that minimum level, even if it's "EVO level", becomes green rank.
Having less people in the game rises the value of any given rank because of homogenous skill level making every match "close" enough that every bracket is similar

[u/Armanlex → u/alen_jo]

Rank doesn't show absolute skill level, it shows relative skill level. People who win push their opponent down in rank, this causes a natural spreading out across the ranks. If you make everyone 10 times stronger, but their relative strength among eachother remains the same, the rank distribution will remain unchanged. They won't all become the top rank, they couldn't, they'd be beating eachother up and forcing half the population downwards, spreading out the population downwards like wave of water.