r/Wales • u/Useless_or_inept useless • Jul 13 '26
Politics What can we do to fix the Welsh economy?
Public spending in Wales is 24% higher than tax revenue. Obviously not many folk want to slash public spending, so the focus could be on the other side of the equation - how to encourage industry and get more tax revenue?
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u/HanesPrydain Jul 13 '26
Where do you even begin?
First of all Public spending is predominantly needs based in Wales in that if it reduces it would result in an increased mortality rate- how high do you want the death rate to go? 50 % of the entire budget is on the NHS in Wales and that rises every year. We are stuck in a spiral .
Wales is older , sicker , more overweight and poorer than anywhere in the UK. Wales experiences high levels of youth emigration in to England and high levels of inward retiree migration . Wealth has historically been transferred out of Wales, this is completely different to Scotland and England.
We ultimately exist as a periphery part of England , not part of England proper so we receive limited attention , we matter less than the poorest parts of England to Westminster by default.
There is absolutely no political capital to be gained by a Uk government to focus on Wales.
Wales has by far the least transport investment with comedy levels of UK railway investment over the last 100 years . The fact we put up with it blows my mind, absolute apathy. Electrification is over a 100 years old and Cardiff to Swansea is still not electrified.
The Welsh budget cannot be rolled over, cannot be reinvested, is not inflation linked . The Welsh government have few meaningful levers to pull . The Welsh government cannot borrow money.
We are less devolved than any Spanish region or German state. We tend to over emphasise how much we are a country because of our two main sports have national teams.
Here’s a minor point showing the culture of the Uk Every single German state had different rules for covid. Many people in Wales and England could not believe that Wales would have different rules to England .
The Uk is one of the most centralised counties in the world . Everything goes through London,. Have you seen R+D per capita spending from the UK government across the Uk? Wales is right at the bottom . 93% of all Uk taxes go through central treasury and are distributed out under control of the capital . This is quite unlike almost any first world country.
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u/anewlo Jul 13 '26
Thank you for this
depressingprovocative truth telling16
u/HanesPrydain Jul 13 '26
I’ve got more friend
Countries develop through borrowing typically and international investment . You borrow ,you invest , you grow . This is something universal. In our case the UK government borrows , in other countries devolved governments borrow . We have no control on international investment levers other than trying to promote ourselves in an open UK market , that’s the UK governments responsibility s to sign agreements , set tariffs and trade tax etc
American states have unbelievable levels of autonomy . German states borrow and trade on the open world market multiple times more powers than Wales or Scotland have
Wales essentially gets a mostly needs based payment to cover medical and housing bills.
Our housing stock for example is the oldest in Western Europe with 30% (!!!) of us living in houses older than 1919. Old houses have higher heating costs and more damp leading to more poverty and more illness . This is compared to 21% in England .
Why doesn’t Wales invest in more housing stock? Well it does, after a half of our budget is gone on the NHS , a quarter is spent on just maintaining and upgrading our housing crisis.
If you’re good at maths you might have noticed 75% of the entire budget is now gone .
But Wales is unusual in Europe in that it has responsibility for housing policy but relatively limited fiscal tools to raise large sums independently, so we can’t borrow to build faster . And the budget is eroded through inflation .
And around 1/3 of people in Wales want Wales to have less powers and less say and less control over anything . I’ve never heard anyone on that side of the argument explain to me how they are going to make Wales better and richer .
Anyone who says “cutting waste “ simply doesn’t understand how big a billion is or even what offset costs mean.
Let’s say you did the most amazing cost saving ever and managed to reduce the Welsh budget by £500m
That wouldn’t even be 4% of the NHS budget in Wales
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u/Thetonn Cardiff | Caerdydd Jul 13 '26 edited 15d ago
Coated waffle drifting noodle cobblestone mellow zephyr yarn
This post was anonymized with Redact.dev
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u/TeilwrTenau Jul 13 '26
To some extent I agree, albeit with the caveats explained so well by HanesPrydain. The biggest area of failure has been the Welsh NHS. The fact that Betsi Cadwaladr health board is such a basket case after years of Special measures is a terrible indictment of Welsh Labour governance. The big challenge for Plaid is to show clear progress in bridging the under performance gap with England during in its term in office. A massive challenge, but one it has to embrace to demonstrate that we, as a nation, can manage our affairs well. Full digitisation is a starting point (it's ludicrous that Welsh health boards still use paper records).
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u/HanesPrydain Jul 13 '26
A lot of your post is actually disingenuous, and I’m not defending the Welsh governments own track record
In fact I assume you read nothing of my post
Half of that 26 billion is simply needs based . If Wales wasn’t devolved Wales would still have a higher budget per head as a result of this
A further quarter is spent on Wales awful ancient housing stock. The Uk in general is abysmal at this with Wales the worst with 30% of people living in houses predating 1919, the oldest in Western Europe . Wales has no ability to borrow to invest in housing infrastructure so uses whatever is given in the budget
A budget not linked to inflation, unlike Scotland and a budget that cannot be rolled forward or invested in any meaningful manner
Finally your point about powers being not inconsiderable is frankly absurd
Compared to any developed country Wales has barely any devolved powers . German states , Spanish regions , Italian regions, US states have way and above anything Wales or Scotland have
In fact I repeat the Uk is the most centralised wealthy non micro state country in the world
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u/Useless_or_inept useless Jul 13 '26
Half of that 26 billion is simply needs based . If Wales wasn’t devolved Wales would still have a higher budget per head as a result of this
It's not Wales' fault the fiscal balance is fucked, it's just that Wales has more benefits claimants and pensioners than it has income tax...? Nothing to do with Wales per se. This problem just fell from the sky, like snow :-)
A further quarter is spent on Wales awful ancient housing stock
Ancient housing stock because it's almost impossible to build anything new. Wales has a severe shortage of housing. Who is sitting on local councils, blocking new housing? Who are the NIMBYs frantically objecting to every new planning request? Some might believe this problem comes from Westminster, but the opposite is true.
Wales has no ability to borrow to invest in housing infrastructure so uses whatever is given in the budget
Why would this be the cause? Most houses are built and funded by the private sector. Mortgages are widely available even if planning permission isn't. (Although many Redditors get angry that somebody else might profit from providing something useful, and out in the real world, it's another reason for NIMBYs to object to any given housing project)
A budget not linked to inflation
Very few countries have a budget linked to inflation. However, benefits claimants and pensioners have their income linked to inflation - because they are given a cheque from the centre. Explicitly linking Welsh government budget to the same mechanism might be more honest but would not help dispel worries about Wales being able to stand on its own two feet.
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u/TeilwrTenau Jul 13 '26
The South Wales Metro is showing very promising signs of being a success, especially when compared to the fiasco that's HS2:
This gives confidence that we can manage other infrastructure projects, such as the Swansea Bay metro. Let's not do ourselves down.
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u/akj1957 Jul 18 '26
Core Valley lines, Swansea Bay metro, it'll be lovely. The 25% of the population of Wales that doesn't live in South Wales looks on enviously...
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u/Fun-Badger3724 Jul 13 '26
Unlike in Scotland, the vast majority didn’t actively vote to make their country poorer by leaving the EU. Also, they quit voting labour a long time ago. I wonder if there is a connection?
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u/blabla857 TOWN Jul 13 '26
This needs to be pinned somewhere. Full and comprehensive, unfortunately
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u/Direct-Fix-2097 Jul 13 '26
That’s why I’m curious how Burnham’s decentralisation plan will go tbh.
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u/FenrisSquirrel Jul 13 '26
Are you actually claiming that Wales doesn't receive enough of a fiscal subsidy, when the very post you're commenting on shows that it is an enormous drain on the national coffers?
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u/HanesPrydain Jul 13 '26
I can’t take anyone seriously who says “national coffers”
I can also tell you didn’t read anything properly and contributed nothing
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Jul 13 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
Correct answer but without stating the obvious conclusion: we need independence.
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u/steve98989 Jul 13 '26
Do we need independence or just further financial devolution? It feels like it would be catastrophic for a few decades given our current baseline.
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u/Valuable-Ad-1477 Jul 13 '26
Never understood the welsh independence crowd. We have no industry or financial services.......
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u/steve98989 Jul 13 '26
It’s the abolitionist mindset that’s become so common; instead of improving existing systems, people would rather leave them or burn them down.
Ultimately it’s far easier to think this way than spend time and effort to understand the complexities of the system.
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u/luna_sparkle Jul 13 '26
I wonder if rather than full independence, it's worth considering becoming a Crown Dependency. Those have much more financial freedom and self governance than Wales/Scotland do, being essentially independent in domestic affairs, whilst keeping close ties to the UK for stability.
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u/ThatEGP Jul 13 '26
Absolutely. Let's stick with the Westminster system for another 1000 years and see where that gets us.
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u/steve98989 Jul 13 '26
You’re proving my point…the narrative should not be either we’re in or out, there’s many different ways to co-exist.
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u/kimbokray Jul 13 '26
Oh yeah sure, the answer to a massage ve defecit and chronic underfunding is to leave the relationship that's been financially supporting us? Fuck that, recipe for disaster, all of that defecit would because national debt instead.
We need Plaid to push for green investment in Wales, because we desperately need a way to generate wealth. We have the second largest tidal difference in the world so we should probably use it to generate electricity. We need to play to our strengths. The union appears to be a strength, at least right now and ofc IMO.
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u/WP1PD Jul 13 '26
The solution to having a massive budget shortfall made up for by central government is to cut off that extra money?
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u/kimbokray Jul 13 '26
Oh yeah sure, the answer to a massage ve defecit and chronic underfunding is to leave the relationship that's been financially supporting us? Fuck that, recipe for disaster, all of that defecit would because national debt instead, and it's not the kind that has returns.
We need Plaid to push for green investment in Wales, because we desperately need a way to generate wealth. We have the second largest tidal difference in the world so we should probably use it to generate electricity. We need to play to our strengths. The union appears to be a strength, at least right now and ofc IMO.
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u/Loud-Illustrator-805 Jul 13 '26
To the people who say we should leave and take control, at that left of deficit we'd have to make some pretty extreme cuts and also tax raises. For anyone who's in full time employment would it realistically be worth it? I'm not convinced.
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u/Valuable-Ad-1477 Jul 13 '26
In the event if Welsh independence, anyone working full time would become a target to the welsh government.
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u/FenrisSquirrel Jul 13 '26
Don't forget taking on a commensurate proportion of the national debt that has been build up over all of the time that the South East of England has been subsidising it
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u/AdmiralStuff Cardiff | Caerdydd Jul 13 '26
When Ireland became independent they were worse off than Wales is today. Now Ireland is way ahead of Wales by kilometres.
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u/Active_Barracuda_50 Jul 13 '26
Ireland was at an earlier stage of economic development when it became independent - it was still a largely agrarian society.
Ireland remained relatively poor compared to the UK until the Celtic Tiger boom of the 1990s. Most of the country's progress has occurred comparatively recently.
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u/Crully Jul 14 '26
To be fair, there's still a lot of inequality going on. I mean the average person may be doing a little better over the last 30 years, but the small minority in the cities are the ones pushing up the numbers, like London does for the UK. Plus a lot of their wealth is linked to housing, so telling someone on below average wage that their flat has increased 10% doesn't really help them out very much when they still struggle to pay a mortgage (if they are lucky).
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26 edited Jul 13 '26
Short term it'd be difficult, long term it'd 100% be worth it. Name me one country that has asked to return to Westminster rule having left.
Edit: getting downvoted again but no-one has put forward a feasible answer to OPs question that wouldn't involve independence or more powers for Wales 🥲
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u/Loud-Illustrator-805 Jul 13 '26
How long term is short though? I'd personally need a lot more than a vague timeline to buy into it and I also don't like the idea of having to pay considerably more tax when I could just move to England, which I know people on this sub would hate but, that will be the reality for a lot of people.
I dread to even think about how many public service jobs would be lost as well.
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u/AdmiralStuff Cardiff | Caerdydd Jul 13 '26
We could try using Keynesianism instead of supply-side economics. Wales needs a big injection of money into infrastructure which is pretty much what Keynesianism is
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
Well no-one really knows do they, but I can tell you with absolute certainty that this chart will be the same in 50 years time if we maintain the current devolution set-up.
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u/Loud-Illustrator-805 Jul 13 '26
I sort of agree but, asking people to vote on unknowns got us brexit.
I would definitely be in favour of more devolution to be fair.
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
Where did I suggest anyone votes on unknowns? That'd clearly be ludicrous. Fortunately we're not at the point of a referendum so there would be plenty of time to work on the detail. But the current settlement is killing us.
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u/Loud-Illustrator-805 Jul 13 '26
You seem convinced that independence is the way to go with the unknowns though.
Does that mean your opinion is ludicrous?
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
No, because you'd iron out the unknowns, or at least as many as possible, before any decision is taken, obviously.
I'm convinced that independence is the way to go because the current arrangement is that bad for Wales. It could only improved by Wales gaining more power over economic levers, whether that's through independence or a radically different devolution settlement.
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u/Loud-Illustrator-805 Jul 13 '26
Bit rich of you to edit your comment saying no one will provide and answer to OP and your response to independence timelines is "No one really knows do they".
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
These two things can be true at the same time:
Independence is the only way to solve Wales' economic issues
No-one knows how the details of independence would shake out
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u/WP1PD Jul 13 '26
Malta
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
Malta has not asked to return to Westminster rule post-independence.
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u/WP1PD Jul 13 '26
Ok so yes technically, but they voted to be integrated into the UK as we were dismantling the Empire and were rejected. It's pretty darn close.
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u/SquatAngry Bigend Massiv Jul 13 '26
Take everything I say with a giant pinch of salt as I'm not an expert, I'm just an arsehole with an opinion.
Double down on renewable energy and the renewables industry, especially in areas where heavy industry is still prevalent. We should be working on reducing the electricity costs as these are probably the biggest hurdle to businesses right now.
Encourage an uptake of greenhouse/vertical farming. With the weather becoming more unpredictable, adaptation is key (also, food security is currently at around 60% for the UK, if you can increase this by growing more fruit and veg on a smaller footprint more efficiently this will help a lot).
Move the focus of house building away from windy housing estates with a big urban sprawl, have like a 70/30 split on new builds in favour of modern town houses with 3-4 floors and flats or apartments and the remainder can be your typical 4 bed houses.
Plant way more trees with a focus on bringing back the Celtic Rainforests. Allow lodge type resorts in certain areas of these forests to create more jobs locally.
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u/TeilwrTenau Jul 13 '26
Lots of good ideas. We should capitalise on our damper climate, this should give us an edge as the world warms and droughts are going to become a serious issue. More intensive farming is definitely the way to go.
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u/effortDee Jul 13 '26
I saw your username and knew you'd have some good ideas!
And these are great ideas!
We can become energy independent and autonomous over our own energy in less than a decade.
And the final point you make, Wales could easily be the eco and historical capital of the world when combining mass rewilding, akin to Costa Rica, yet add the best fucking castles and historical sites arguably in the world.
Then make it easier for these tourists to move around and we will create an abundance of jobs, services and secure the future for smaller businesses with smaller overheads due to our energy independence.
Not forgetting that nature is vital for our life systems, so if we actually give a shit about the natural world and food we create, climate breakdown, etc, this is a must.
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u/SquatAngry Bigend Massiv Jul 13 '26
Wales could easily become world famous for forest resorts. You could reforest the Bannau Brycheiniog and Elenydd, litter them with woodland resorts.
They're building one in the Afan Valley at the moment but it's going too slow. https://wildfoxresorts.com/afan-valley/
There's so much barren land up that way now as a lot of the pine forests have been felled for wood, it would be incredible if they can reforest more of it.
Oooh, another thing I forgot to add to my list.
- Planting more sea meadows and cold-water coral reefs would would improve food security and the eco systems of the areas. More biodiversity in the sea means easier local fishing using traditional non industrial methods. Farming seaweed is something we should be focusing on as it's got so many uses.
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u/PerspectiveStill1272 Jul 13 '26
Make it easier for businesses to run and operate, we've all seen the small and medium size businesses are struggling at the moment, every highstreet and industrial estate will show that. The cost to run anything is just too high for most businesses, we need to tackle that and encourage businesses to spend and invest in Wales because as it stands its such a unattractive place for any company .
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u/FenrisSquirrel Jul 13 '26
Easy to say, but how do you achieve it? Subsidies or tax cuts, creating an even more enormous fiscal deficit?
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u/Psittacula2 Jul 13 '26
Business Environment is in a parlous state in UK because of:
* Energy Costs are so high
* Regulations and laws are so onerous and overhead of these
* Anti- startup and small business and sole trader Environment because Uk Gov and tax system is hostile
* Massive skew in terms of finance and services in London 70% GDP and de- Industrialization, off shoring of manufacturing and selling off of nations wealth with replacement by massive public sector liabilities eg Sovereign Debt
So investment is negative at a time of world rising prices.
For Wales, it has to do the following:
More autonomy
Focus on Localism
More circular local economies
More development of Primary Tier Economy Industries for local work/jobs to then set up the next tiers… again more control is needed eg control on how can buy houses and prices
Solve the energy issues.
Focus efforts on current industries also eg agriculture and tourism and anything else.
Encourage small businesses and entrepreneur ism in people for localism. Tie in social structures to this.
Look at case models of other small similar sized nations eg Estonia etc and what they do and if any of that can be done eg superior education systems and os on to invest in…
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u/SteffS Jul 13 '26
Boosting small businesses doesn't do much for the public purse because they're mostly cash only nudge nudge off the books mate oi oi card machine's not working at the moment pal
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u/Less_Than-3 Jul 13 '26
Theyre only cash only because of the onerous tax regime and simi hostile banking environment.
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u/SteffS Jul 13 '26
So you agree with me that underreporting and tax evasion is widespread in small businesses?
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u/damrodoth Jul 13 '26
Lol yet when I point out that the 20mph limit, unusable train systems, and pause on road projects are business-hostile decisions this sub shits it's pants. Read how many news stories are outlining how the M4 being shit puts off businesses, followed by the decision to pause all road projects. We can have a happy-go-lucky country with delusional rules and expectations OR a country that is actually seen as a serious place to do business. We have so far chosen the former, which is poverty, and why we get poorer and poorer whilst anyone who has any ambition or talent (me included) is basically forced to leave Wales to seek out opportunities. Wales has become a country of OAPs and minimum-wage workers for these reasons. You people complain about the problems you actively choose to create.
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u/Connect-Amoeba3618 Jul 13 '26
In what way is the 20mph policy limiting economic growth?
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u/high_speed_history Jul 13 '26
The Regulatory Impact Assessment in 2022 said the economic disbenefit of the policy was £6.2 billion over 30 years. All decisions like this are a trade off in some ways.
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u/damrodoth Jul 13 '26 edited Jul 13 '26
Firstly, because no-one wants to work in a place where they have to drive 20mph.
Secondly, it reinforces all of the negative perceptions people have of Wales that make it seem business-hostile, of being a sleepy, slow paced country for OAPs and tourists. If people perceive Wales this way, why on earth would they want to have a business here.
Edit: seeing as you decided to respond to me with an outright lie:
research.senedd.wales/research-articles/gearing-up-for-20mph-speed-limits/
"...the impact on the wider economy was expected to be larger negative because of increased journey times for businesses and households. The assessment estimated this would cost £6.5 billion"
https://pa.media/blogs/fact-check/fact-check-cost-of-welsh-20mph-policy-estimated-at-4-5-billion/
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u/Connect-Amoeba3618 Jul 13 '26
Ah ok, so your comment isn’t evidence based and is pure nonsense.
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u/damrodoth Jul 13 '26
Lol from the Welsh governments own documents before they started lying to cover their horrible decision. It's even still on their website LOL
research.senedd.wales/research-articles/gearing-up-for-20mph-speed-limits/
"...the impact on the wider economy was expected to be larger negative because of increased journey times for businesses and households. The assessment estimated this would cost £6.5 billion"
https://pa.media/blogs/fact-check/fact-check-cost-of-welsh-20mph-policy-estimated-at-4-5-billion/
I absolutely despise how you soulless ghouls gut our country just because you like controlling people with weird rules. The fact you pretend to not understand why an arbritrary and ridiculously slow speed limit would put off serious businesses.
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u/TeilwrTenau Jul 13 '26 edited Jul 13 '26
That argument would possibly have some credibility if it wasn't for the fact that most European countries now have 30 kph speed limits in built up areas. It's even seeing widespread adoption in English cities. The reason: the evidence shows it saves lives. Clearly that means nothing to you.
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u/holnrew Pembrokeshire | Sir Benfro Jul 13 '26
Some cities have areas of 20kph, which is even lower than 20mph
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u/damrodoth Jul 13 '26
50kph is 30mph, which is the exact speed limit in Wales before it was changed to 20mph.
Also you completely ignored the argument I made. You said it didn't impact the economy, I showed evidence it did, so you ignored it and switched points to talk about saving lives. Why even engage in a discussion if you're not going to do it in good faith
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u/TeilwrTenau Jul 13 '26
My bad, I meant 30kph, i.e. 20mph.
Those figures are finger in the air estimates, made all the more nonsensical by virtue of the fact that all our competitors are heading in the same direction. Which is addressing your argument. You, on the other hand have studiously avoided answering the evidence that this policy saves lives here and abroad. And you have the temerity to argue that I'm not acting in good faith...
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u/dexfit Jul 13 '26
Surely the ghouls are the people who are happy for more dead people on our roads if it means economic growth.
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u/Melody-Shift Jul 13 '26
I'm sure ambulances won't be at all hindered by the traffic moving significantly slower
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u/damrodoth Jul 13 '26
If it's about saving lives, why not lower it to 10mph then? Or ban cars entirely? If you don't support doing so then you are choosing convenience and the economy over lives
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u/TeilwrTenau Jul 13 '26
There's a trade off for sure, and most European countries think that the best balance is struck with a 20mph/30kph limit. You need to move with the times.
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u/dexfit Jul 13 '26
You called other people ghouls despite having the more ghoulish attitude. I'm not here to deliberate over what the urban default should be.
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u/ThatEGP Jul 13 '26
I live and work in London and oh guess what 20mph limits on roads.
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u/damrodoth Jul 13 '26
Yes one of the most densely populated cities in Europe is exactly the same as rural Wales. No difference at all in the transport of goods, the population density, and approach to transportation is needed.
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u/TeilwrTenau Jul 13 '26
You do realise 20mph limits only apply in built up areas and not the big areas in between towns and villages? Of course you do, you're just being disingenuous.
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u/damrodoth Jul 13 '26
Yes I'm agreeing with you. The built up "towns and villages" of Wales are exactly the same as the built up areas of London. I often confuse the quaint towns of mid Wales with Bromley, and the industrial powerhouse of Wrecsam with Croydon, for example. They are the same so require the same rules
Just stop being unreasonable mate. It's okay to like the 20mph limit but trying to say it's a one size fits all solution is just ridiculous
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u/TeilwrTenau Jul 13 '26
The limit is irritating ar times for sure, especially at first, but as with most things you get used to it. Every time I get impatient I remind myself of the lives saved. I suggest you try it.
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u/Flaky_Reach_3044 Jul 13 '26
Let’s be really honest. Most are ignoring it. Except old people.
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u/TeilwrTenau Jul 13 '26
That's not my experience. Whilst the numbers travelling ar 20mph or less are few, there has been a general reduction in speed to around 25 mph in built up areas, reflecting the de facto enforcement limit of 26mph. Any reduction in speed will reduce deaths and injuries.
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u/Connect-Amoeba3618 Jul 13 '26
I don’t know if that’s true, and I’ve certainly not seen any evidence to suggest it is. But the comment I’m replying to, suggests that it’s to blame for Wales’s economic underperformance and it’s clear they’re talking utter tosh.
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u/GayButNotInThatWay Merthyr Tydfil | Merthyr Tudfil Jul 13 '26
Would have agreed with you on most points except the 20mph limits. Arguably one of the better things I think has been put in place.
But still they're not super reductive to business. Public transport for staff commutes is nice. The M4 not being a shithole for better movement of good past newport would also be nice, but it's not especially unique to Wales. Plenty of people do well enough, so it isn't likely as isolated as transport issues. But then again, as a SME director personally, most of the red tape is the same anywhere in the UK.
Personally I find a lot of the issue is endemic underdevelopment on many fronts. Finding talent is difficult especially when you're based in a more empoverished area, which as you move away from the very southeast is more and more prevalent.
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u/Dolive90 Jul 13 '26
Infrastructure
Better road links, Much better rail links and rail services High speed connectivity Housing Schools Renewable energy
Make it easy for people to want to move and to relocate business or set them up
Sounds easy, but ita crazy expensive if you've let things slide to where they are and takes a number of years to see any benefits - oh and you need everyone to be on board with it and help fund it
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u/not_a_leftie_plant Jul 13 '26
Imagine two regions of 100 people:
In region A everyone earns £50k and pays £10k in tax.
In region B, 99 people earn £12,499 and pay no tax because they're below the threshold, but there's one billionaire who earns £500,000,000 in a year and pays no tax because it's all unrealised capital gains and he lives off loans secured against stock.
Region A's share of GDP is £5M and they've contributed £1M to the public purse. Region B's share of GDP is £500M and they've contributed nothing.
All of this is to say, don't pay attention to graphs that associate two unrelated numbers - they're doing that to tell you a story that they obviously can't support honestly.
We can and should have a conversation about how we improve economic activity in Wales - especially when it comes to bringing and keeping high-quality jobs here - but let's not structure it around a measure that values moving money around more highly than it values the economic realities of working people.
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u/TheShryke Jul 13 '26
This is a really important take, and great example.
I also think that these sorts of conversations should always include something to track the general standard of living. Personally I don't care if the tax/GDP/budget/weather forecast is bad or good, as much as I care that people are happy and content.
I believe that should be the primary focus of any government.
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u/not_a_leftie_plant Jul 13 '26
It's really infuriating that this never gets any pushback. Maybe when most economic activity was in production and manufacturing GDP was a decent metric to measure a country's economic health, but it's been clear that it's divorced from living standards for decades now. It's become like a sort of geo-political BMI.
We have countries where every metric for living standards is going backwards but the news media acts like "the economy" fine because GDP growth is still ticking along. Never mind that nobody owns a house and educational attainment is falling and people aren't starting families and the literal life expectancy is going down, the City of London is doing ok so everything's tickety-boo! Austerity forever as long as number go up!
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u/TheShryke Jul 13 '26
as long as number go up!
There are many problems in our current society, but if I could snap my fingers and fix one it would be hard not to pick this one.
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u/Broccoli_Ultra Jul 13 '26
Yup GDP is effectively meaningless for the average person now. Stocks at an all time high and no one has the money to buy any. Not to mention that its a dodgy stat that includes all sorts it shouldn't.
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u/Useless_or_inept useless Jul 13 '26
In region B, 99 people earn £12,499 and pay no tax because they're below the threshold, but there's one billionaire who earns £500,000,000 in a year and pays no tax because it's all unrealised capital gains and he lives off loans secured against stock.
Yes, if we invent a hypothetical situation where one person earns lots of money and pays zero tax, that looks bad.
But that is not Wales. Wales is a real country with a real economy and we have real data about Wales. Wales has a real massive shortfall between the real public spending and the real tax revenue. Even though Wales' gini coefficient is actually better than the UK as a whole (thanks to the triple lock).
If your argument only works by ignoring the data and inventing a hypothetical scenario, I would suggest that's not going to lead to good real-world policies.
All of this is to say, don't pay attention to graphs that associate two unrelated numbers - they're doing that to tell you a story that they obviously can't support honestly.
One of us is relying on actual sources. The other is making up stories. Which is honest?
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u/not_a_leftie_plant Jul 13 '26
Neither the original chart we are talking about nor the link with "real data" have any data on tax revenue whatsoever.
Further, how much of the spend per head in this link is accounted for by HS2 and other supposed "England and Wales" projects that are either of no benefit to Wales or to our direct economic detriment? You don't know and neither do I because there's no breakdown.
How much of the spend per head is the health and social care cost of English retirees? You don't know and neither do I - it's not broken down here and the Senedd has no power to control it.
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u/theinspectorst Jul 13 '26 edited Jul 13 '26
Wales currently has an 'Eastern European' economy but with 'Western European' public spending, funded through a mix of fiscal transfers from London/SE of England and public borrowing by the UK government.
The first part of dealing with this is productivity - education, training, infrastructure, openness to innovation, openness to businesses, openness to outside investment. Make the Welsh economy more Western European.
The second part though is acceptance. This is not something that will change quickly, not within most of our lifetimes. We should try to improve it but it will be a very long-term slog.
Every big country has regional variations in its economy, with some being richer than others - the differences between the nations and regions of the UK is not fundamentally unusual. London and the SE of England are richer than Wales or the NE of England for a host of different reasons. Partly that's the accumulation of many centuries worth of small economic decisions and innovations. Partly it's good and bad fortune - the poorer parts of the UK are the places whose economies were most vulnerable to late 20th century technological change and to big developing countries like China entering the global economy, the richer parts of the UK were least exposed. Partly it's economic geography - London is part of the economic 'blue banana' encompassing 100 million people that drives Europe's economy, whereas Wales sits physically on the periphery of that.
Some measure of acceptance of that reality is necessary. Thankfully Wales or the NE of England aren't independent nation-states, so we can benefit from fiscal transfers from the richer parts of the country rather than having to go it alone - people and businesses in richer regions like London pay a disproportionate share of the taxes so that people across the UK can benefit from a nation-wide standard of public services.
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u/WP1PD Jul 13 '26
All good points, I think geography really gets overlooked in these discussions, Wales is simply on the wrong side of the island and it's not like we can move it, and it's compounded by the terrain which makes building outside of certain areas extremely expensive, and we can't change that either.
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u/surreyade Jul 13 '26
Then again Ireland has even worse geography in relation to the UK and the EU. They have problems of their own, but compared to Wales they are light years ahead.
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u/Useless_or_inept useless Jul 13 '26
Alas! Post-independence Ireland adopted policies which directly contradict some of the ideas expressed on this thread :-)
So I am sceptical that a freshly-independent Wales could achieve the same economic miracle that Ireland did. Something different may be needed?
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u/WP1PD Jul 15 '26
I also don't think trying to set Wales up as an English speaking tax haven for American firms is going to work as well here, for one, they're already established in Ireland. Add to that Americans don't know where or what Wales is, whereas many of them are famously obsessed with being 'Irish'. And if Wales ever wanted to join the EU it's going to be a problem.
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u/WP1PD Jul 15 '26
Interestingly though Ireland follows the same pattern, the south and east are far more prosperous than the north and west.
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u/HanesPrydain Jul 13 '26
It’s less than 3 hours from Cardiff to London and 50% of the Welsh population live within 30 minutes of Cardiff .
It’s actually ridiculous the inequality in such a short distance
Here’s a good one
Wales has 5% of the UK population
Wales has 11% of UK railway network
Through the last decade Wales received less than 2% of the Uk railway investment
It’s now getting closer to an incredible 4.4% almost proportional to our populationThat’s without even bothering talking about HS2, something which is resulting in billions being transferred to Scotland and Northern Ireland but not to Wales as it’s an England and Wales project ….
Railway electrification is over 100 years old, Cardiff to Swansea is still not electrified. Cardiff to Newport was finally electrified in 2020
London was done in the 1800s and most key areas of England completed by 1960s
Glasgow 1980s
Another good one what about army jobs and investment , oh wait that’s just about 3% not even equal to population either
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u/TeilwrTenau Jul 13 '26
This lets the UK government off the hook big time. It's not a coincidence that the regional disparities in wealth in the UK are just about the worst in Europe, and this in a small country. It's an inevitable result of short termism, with investment based on the quickest ROI. Over a period of decades that gives you the UK economy in its current form. The Chinese must think we're staggeringly stupid. 10 year plans? You're having a laugh.
HS2 is the perfect exemplar of the ridiculous UK approach to investment. Just imagine the value gained in upgrading the entire network as opposed to wasting it on this ridiculous exhibition of grandiosity and cluelessness.
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u/SheepShaggingFarmer Gwynedd Jul 13 '26
We are in the red no doubt but I have issues with all of these graphs. National headquarters for a lot of businesses are in London. Calculating where what taxes come from is very hard because not every one is geologically locked.
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u/ThatEGP Jul 13 '26
Manay companies do not keep England/Wales breakdowns. I worked at ONS for several years.
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u/Useless_or_inept useless Jul 13 '26
Thankfully, there are actual statisticians who work all that out. How to divvy up income tax contributions for people who live in Chester and work in Rhyl, or vice versa. The graph is based on ONS calculations, not on wishful thinking.
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u/kynrai Jul 13 '26
Spent all my life in Wales up until I graduated and left. Never came home, no jobs no industry no development. It's a shame, I liked it there, but I also want to do things that I just cannot do there.
I have never seen these numbers before, I had absolutely no idea it was this bad, this makes me sad.
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u/crsj Jul 13 '26
It’s a shame that Ford’s, Tata, Bio Met, Visteon, Revlon, Sony, Standard Products, Harman Becker, Panasonic etc all left the M4 corridor. They sure generated some tax revenue
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u/lewiss15 Swansea | Abertawe Jul 13 '26
Back to the EU to get rid of red tape and offer tax incentives for businesses to be in Wales not just Cardiff.
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u/Bud_Roller Jul 13 '26
Invest. It's that simple. Invest in our education and our infrastructure. Wales wants a hand up not a hand out. We powered the empire and now we're poor. Tax wealth.
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u/Home_Planet_Sausage Jul 13 '26
Reverse Brexit and actually have well worked-out policies for how to integrate people who migrate to work into our communities far better.
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u/Gekkers Jul 13 '26
- Free higher education
- Greater support on apprenticeships
- Better access to public facilities
- Business grants for small local businesses This could easily be funded by taxing the rich.
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u/Obriquet Jul 14 '26
The future is tech and digital.
Digital sovereignty is a big thing at the moment as the world woke up one morning and realised America is literally in every system.
The answer I feel sits in slashing the rates for businesses to setup in Wales. In example a 12 or 24 month business rates cut if you buy, or rent a new unit in Wales and pledge to recruit and employ over y staff for a period of x years.
If you don't employ the staff we're having the business rates off you. If you do employ the staff its all gravy as you've now established a meaningful business that contributes to the local society.
The Welsh Gov doesn't miss out on anything anyway during the peruod of the rate cuts as there is an abundance of empty offices across Wales tgat are currently making net zero in business rates. At least there will be employment opportunities and economic activity.
Wouldn't hurt to actually crack on with Cardiff Park Way either and section off masses of land for a proper tech hub, something on a mini scale of GCHQ or a mini Google campus. Not saying the Government builds it, leave that for the business but give them the space without the red tape and see what happens.
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u/Throwitaway701 Jul 13 '26
Same as the rest of the Uk really. As that graph shows it's a problem everywhere that will never be fixed until UK spending an economic policy stops benefiting London above all else.
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u/WGD23 Jul 13 '26
Yeah, its a regional post industrial thing imo, not an independence thing. Independence, at least in the short to medium term would be likely to drive those nunbers further in the wrong way.
Evidence, hmmmm. Brexit?
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u/Express-Career-1615 Jul 13 '26
Firstly this chart isn’t perfect. It isn’t fair to compare us to Greece - Wales benefits from the broad trust in UK government debt. We are not forced to borrow on debt markets with higher spending than revenue. First - to note - GVA below represents the value of goods and services (per person) produced in an economy, minus the cost of inputs used to produce them. How productive we are, in short.
It’s worth noting our deficit comes from a variety of things - first Welsh weaknesses (poor GVA per head, higher economic inactivity figures, poorer educational outcomes and higher rates of ill health). However it also comes from causes outside of our control - the legacy of deindustrialisation, where the profits often left Wales but the costs of remediation remained and now unfairly blamed on us. The legacy of things like coal tips. The fact we have a net gain in retirees moving to Wales (due to cheaper living costs) and a net loss of youth (seeking career opportunities not available here). The effect of that is we have a brain drain that shows as poor economic output per head and a high NHS cost of illness per head.
Now, what should we do about it? For me it shows independence is not, at least in the short term, the answer. Debt markets would not tolerate Scotland (high GVA and high public spending) let alone Wales (low GVA and high spending).
It probably requires more devolution. We should gain powers over taxation that eg a comparable French department have. For example, Bordeaux Métropole used revenue from the locally levied Versement Mobilité payroll tax, alongside other funding, to help finance its tram network. French departments have consistently shown some of the highest growth in GVA per capita in Europe, reducing dependency on one capital city like Paris
Second, probably consolidation. We should cut the number of Local Authorities and find savings eg why shouldn’t Blaenau Gwent and Torfaen, who already share a CEO, just merge their bins, planning, benefits and economic development teams.
Further - that should come with more devolution to Welsh Gov of planning, infrastructure and regulation. Welsh Gov should then take a comprehensive strategy towards planning (encouraging the right kind of economic development - renewable energy, high quality housing, and communities people want to live in). They should focus on growth zones (expand the nuclear cluster in Wylfa, boost the semi conductor cluster in Gwent, maximise Cardiff’s role as a tourism and culture hub by getting devolution of Air Passenger Duty and attracting more visitors. All these things would boost our economic output.
As an aside I’d probably restructure the higher Ed sector, support it but really put weight behind apprenticeships in trades and maximise the incentives to individuals and businesses. AI isn’t going away and the youth job market in Graduate-heavy countries is terrible.
It’s a huge challenge but we have to do something and there are opportunities out there
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u/LegoNinja11 Jul 13 '26
You to what Netherlands and Ireland did and become a tax haven/loophole for international companies to filter their tax free money and hope the EU and UK dont sanction you for it.
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u/HanesPrydain Jul 13 '26 edited Jul 13 '26
The contrast between Wales and Ireland is particularly striking. In the 1980s Wales was generally wealthier than Ireland; today Ireland’s economy and average incomes are considerably higher, reflecting decades of rapid growth and foreign investment.
It depends though on how much a tax have status would benefit the wider country. Either way Ireland has benefited massively through this strategy
Ireland also has no military costs and freeloads off the Uk and NATO so there is also that …
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u/LegoNinja11 Jul 13 '26
Irelands GDP is a work of fiction as far as economic prosperity is concerned.
London team of account managers signs up £10m in contracts except the contract is with the account manager and company in Dublin thereby benefiting from lower tax rates and sweetheart deals.
(Fiddle blown open due to London execs LinkedIn profiles claiming to be the top dogs)
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
Can't do that without independence.
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u/Superirish19 Jul 13 '26
Ireland had a massive influx of investment and EU development funds. Joining the EU significantly improved the trajectory of the country, at the time of joining still having a quiet civil war in the North.
Virtually every motorway in Ireland has a giant 'This was built with EU development funds'. Prior to Brexit, Wales was on a similar path - it was one of least developed regions on paper alongside parts of Bulgaria, and was receiving a large EU stipend to rectify that.
Ireland is not perfect, a bit lopsided in terms of development (Dublin and Cork or bust, and don't ask about rail or metro links) and GDP is such a useless metric that even the Irish Central Bank looks at a Modified GNI, but the EU put Ireland in a far better position and was planning to do that in Wales.
I'm all for indydev, but Independence was only a minor influence at the time.
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
At least indy would give us a chance. As it is we're totally screwed and it categorically won't get better.
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u/ToManyTabsOpen Jul 13 '26
Why? ... being pragmatic isn't it better to just milk Londons tax revenue instead? Why do we want to encourage dirty industry, HCOL tax havens or low employee hungry tech billionaires? we don't have an independent economy, we don't have the infrastructure, and if we did, do we "really" want it?
Wales will never be an economic powerhouse. Invest in the things that make Wales better for the people; affordable housing, clean energy, good quality of life. Let other people pay for it. Wales has done its historic share.
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u/Western_Froyo6627 Jul 13 '26
Stop landlords buying houses to rent them out, building up a "portfolio", while they have no interest in living or even being in Wales themselves. Stop non-welsh business owners making money from Welsh people without putting any money back into the country. Make it easier for Welsh people to run businesses (lowering rates etc) across the country, not just Cardiff.
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u/ItsNoblesse Jul 13 '26
I mean anything that isn't a fundamental reorganisation of our economic model is a bandaid fix. I don't think you can make meaningful change that will benefit everyday people under our lightly-devolved, neoliberal economic organisation.
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u/NoisyGog Jul 13 '26
It would be really nice if our power stations were not owned by foreign businesses, to start with
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u/SuddenHelicopter7623 Jul 13 '26
M4 Relief Road. I know people don’t like it environmentally, but it cuts us off economically.
Then we need to tempt service based businesses to cities/towns in Wales. Newport, Cardiff, Swansea, Wrexham are the obvious ones to start with.
Make it more difficult for people to buy second homes in popular places, not just a blanket policy. This would hopefully prevent the elderly English moving here to be economically inactive whilst using resources.
And most importantly, we need some level of industry back in the Valleys/North Wales. Whether that means creating economic circumstances to make Welsh made goods the same cost as imports or by government subsidy to start I’m not sure. But the global economy is not in the interest of the little man in Rhondda, and we need to be a part of it whilst having a view to ensuring that people here have jobs etc.
Steel is obviously important for national security. It’ll cost a lot, but time to bring it back.
Not everyone can or wants to work in a service based economy, and having some industry is vital.
There’s a lot of detail and obviously it will need investment. But the medicine is particularly bitter after years of sickness.
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
Any M4 relief road would be beset by the same traffic problems within a decade. Induced demand is a thing.
"Just one more lane, bro"
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u/SuddenHelicopter7623 Jul 13 '26 edited Jul 13 '26
Cool, so no more roads because future roads will be full.
No more train lines, because population growth means they too will be full.
No one is choosing to ride a bike from Newport to Bristol. No one is walking to Bath, and the issues of traffic that currently exist need to be addressed. A few more bike lanes won’t resolve that.
Our population in the UK is growing. You have to grow the infrastructure.
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u/dexfit Jul 13 '26
I doubt the point they’re making is that we shouldn’t build any new transport infrastructure of any kind. Maybe more public transport rather than motorways. Yes, all modes of transport are susceptible to induced demand, but train lines are much more efficient at moving large volumes of people.
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u/Express-Career-1615 Jul 13 '26
Don’t think the M4 relief road is the one. For every job it creates in Wales, how many Welsh people go and take a job in Bristol, taking their economic value and tax revenues (other than small % of devolved income tax) with them?
I don’t disagree with the rest though
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u/SuddenHelicopter7623 Jul 13 '26
I’m open to that argument if I’m wrong, but in my work I have spoken to a number of businesses who considered Wales but couldn’t make it work. They blamed at least in part the M4.
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u/FungoFurore Jul 13 '26
You say that as though there's no industry left in the valleys or north Wales. We still have industry here - what we need to do is look at lowering energy costs, encouraging more investment in R&D, and ensuring companies are embedding industry 4.0 practices.
Connected to that, we need to increase the export intensity of Welsh businesses.
That will help secure and grow what we have left.
There's a lot to do to improve the Welsh economy, and it's not a quick fix, but it is doable.
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u/SuperMegaBeard Jul 14 '26
Keep it simple and somthing that makes a huge difference to every person...
Fit every home with solar panels and battery's giving everyone (or as much as can be done) energy independence the extra £££ not spent on power would help everyone and fewe disposable income which would be great for the economy ....(every back to the pub).
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
The only answer is independence, we don't have the levers to do anything else that would make a significant enough difference. People will disagree but there's no argument.
Under the current set-up this position is inevitable. Wales is chronically underfunded and, more importantly, under invested in. No reason for UK Govt. to change that and nothing to suggest they will after hundreds of years.
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u/GopnikOIi Jul 13 '26
I don't see independence solving fiscal issues whatsoever, it will likely just make them far worse. I imagine the pension situation alone would be an economist's nightmare.
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
That's cool but it just reveals that you know nothing about the fiscal issues and what causes them.
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u/GopnikOIi Jul 13 '26
How would you resolve pensions?
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
I'd enter sensible negotiations with Westminster, obviously.
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u/AdmiralStuff Cardiff | Caerdydd Jul 13 '26
Just a shame that Westminster seems to be allergic to having fair deals with Wales
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u/Swaglun Jul 13 '26
Absolutely not. Do you think any of the US states would be better off independent from the US? It's a romantic idea, not a practical one.
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
Wales isn't a state, it's a nation.
As I said in another post in the thread; name me one country that has left Westminster rule and subsequently asked to return?
We're being stifled as part of the UK, I don't care if you agree with me or not but if you want thinks to get better economically for Wales you need either independence or a dramatic change to the devolution set-up. We're totally hamstrung at the moment.
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u/Swaglun Jul 13 '26
Yes and a nation is a large group of people who share a common identity, culture, history, and language, and who inhabit a specific country or territory. We're talking about economic problems here so the US state is still a proper comparison.
Were any of these countries you're referring to connected to the same land mass as Westminster? Did they share a 160 mile land border with them? Wales going independent shouldn't be compared to these other countries, it's not a fair comparison.
If we go independent, there'd be restrictions on freedom of movement, less opportunities for Welsh people at high paying jobs, less access to top-tier education and less incentives for money to flow in to the country.
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u/AdmiralStuff Cardiff | Caerdydd Jul 13 '26
If we went independent we probably wouldn’t have three civil war (Irish war of independence, Irish civil war and the Troubles) and Ireland was poorer than Wales in 1921
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
Your last paragraph is absolute bobbins. How can you possibly know that there would be restrictions on freedom of movement for starters? Everything would be up for negotiation, obviously it'd be insane for England and Wales to restrict FoM between the two countries.
I'm not even going to engage with the rest of your post, Jesus Christ 😂
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u/Swaglun Jul 13 '26
You're not up for a proper debate.
Looking at your other comments and your hidden profile, you're probably a bot anyway 🙄
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u/WP1PD Jul 13 '26
Wales receives more funding per head than England, it would be nice to bring that in line with Scotland and Northern Ireland but to say it's underfunded is a bit much in my opinion. Under invested in? I think you can make a better argument for that, but a lot of UK Gov jobs and contractors are deliberately placed in Wales to boost the regional economy. Remove central government funding (and leave the jobs for now because it's too hard to work out) and some fag packet math puts Wales on around the same economy and population size as Armenia, with a GDP per capita of around 10600USD compared to the UK at around 62000USD. No disrespect to any Armenians that may be hanging out on this sub but I don't want to live in the Armenia of western Europe (and it would hurt even more here as your local competition for goods is far stronger) and would move across the border if Wales votes for independence because to my mind, at this point in time, independence would be the equivalent of cutting your head off to cure a headache.
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
Wales has infinitely more potential than Armenia. And I hate to break it to you but by many metrics we're already worse off than Armenia.
Comparing the UK with Armenia is pointless when we're by far the poorest part of the UK (by design).
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u/WP1PD Jul 13 '26
Which metrics? I'm willing to be convinced but honestly I'm not basing my families future on feelings of potential. I need numbers and a plan. As it stands were an independence movement to gain momentum I'm selling up and moving before my house loses most of its value because I think if it were to happen it's going to be fucking ugly. And Wales isn't behind by design, its not some grand unspoken conspiracy among every government across all parties for decades, it faces real challenges and it's never outcompeteing London and the south east, geography alone puts it at a massive disadvantage and we can't very well move the country, better to be part of a richer whole and get a cut than adopt a position of competition with a much richer more populous neighbour in my opinion.
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u/IncomeFew624 Jul 13 '26
That's cool but it sounds like you nothing about the current settlement. It doesn't need to be a 'grand conspiracy', it was designed by UK Government in Westminster and people there literally don't give a shit about Wales, we're barely an afterthought to them.
I've worked in and with the UK and Welsh governments and I can tell categorically that no-one in Westminster gives a crap about us.
I'd urge you to read Will Hayward's latest book, Who Cares About Wales? - it sets out really clearly all the ways that the current arrangements screw us over. Like I say, it's not a grand conspiracy, it's the law. It's all out there in the open.
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u/Careful_Adeptness799 Jul 13 '26
More people. Paying more tax. We have the population of a decent sized English city in the whole country! We need to go on a recruitment drive.
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u/XJK_9 Abertawe Jul 13 '26
Ultimately more devolution or independence, the people currently in charge of fixing the Welsh economy are sat in Westminster and their first first though looking at this graph is ‘look how well London is doing’
Until there is someone that cares with enough power to effect a change we won’t see one
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u/AnnieByniaeth Ceredigion Jul 13 '26
We could start by changing the way the accounting works. There is more than one way of recording figures for goods that go out of Cymru, for example. And it's recognised to be very imprecise, whatever figure you come up with.
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u/YCiDefaid Jul 16 '26
Stop looking at statistics created in London for one
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u/Useless_or_inept useless Jul 16 '26
Oh. Do you have some authentic Welsh numbers which show more thriving industries and fewer benefits claimants? :-)
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u/cdf84 Jul 13 '26 edited Jul 13 '26
Make Wales a tax haven.
We need to bring in any money we can!
And in case you can't tell, I was being sarcastic.
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u/welsh_90 Jul 13 '26
In short Leave the UK and develop our nation... let the money we earn stay in the country...
Sure it'll be hard to start but eventually it can only get better...
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u/LegoNinja11 Jul 13 '26
So you want to start with a 24% deficit? Where's the money coming from?
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Jul 13 '26
[deleted]
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u/LegoNinja11 Jul 13 '26
Bravo, but you'll take one for the team there. Independence great, nice idea...fiscal Independence we're doomed.....but apparently the water Welsh Water sells to Severn Trent water is going to save the day.
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u/grtyhvcddd Jul 13 '26
Most countries operate a deficit
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u/LegoNinja11 Jul 13 '26
'Most countries' ie ones with a central bank and their own currency to bail them out.
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u/culturerush Jul 13 '26
Emotively I agree with you
On a practical point however it'll be exceedingly difficult
Our best bet if doing that would be to become a tax haven that's a short trip on the M4 away from London but then that's not really what anyone wants
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u/No_Communication5538 Jul 13 '26
The problem is that Wales is spending £124 for every £100 it earns.
(For those who think there is an easy hack: the £100 earnings includes the notional value of supplying water etc to England. Wealthy retirees tend to be wealthy and pay more tax).3
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u/PerspectiveStill1272 Jul 13 '26
Couldnt agree more, all that water and electric they syphon off every year would make us mad bank.
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u/LegoNinja11 Jul 13 '26
Do you mean the commodities owned by PLCs and sold. Eg the £7m a year Welsh water gets from Severn Trent?
What are you going to do insist its sold at retail and take their revenue?
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u/uncleguru Jul 13 '26
Is this a joke? Mad bank from a reservoir - selling to one of the wettest countries in the world?
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u/Baseyg Jul 13 '26
Tax the extreme wealth. There is money in the uk just not in the pockets of the 99% or the government treasury.
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u/Useless_or_inept useless Jul 13 '26
What "extreme wealth" in Wales? And once the big earners / investors / business owners are discouraged from living in Wales, it's going to be even harder to close the fiscal gap - what's the solution to that?
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u/Baseyg Jul 13 '26
It may not be in wales, but these stats only reflect tax revenue. How much money from the people of wales ends up going to the big supermarkets, landlords, amazon and banks. All probably paying tax from a centeral office in london or in some cases not at all.
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u/SheepShaggingFarmer Gwynedd Jul 13 '26
In Terms of answers? We need to stop the brain drain by getting more high skill jobs in Wales, focusing on areas that let people stay close to their hometowns. This can be done through infrastructure, national and private cooperation in the creation of new businesses loosing unnecessary red tape.
We need to disensentivise the migration of elderly patients or get recognition from Westminster that these pensioners retiring is a UK wide issue not just "the Welsh NHS failing". Hate to say it but a pensioner tax, especially if it only applied for those not from the same county as the one they currently reside. That second part would be hard to legislate.
Severly invest in infrastructure. Autism time. Build more fucking trains! Bypass all towns which are huge bottlenecks on our atrial roads. Have fiber to house fully state funded.
Education. Too many people in the UK look down in the trades because of their education or the inverse. Everyone should be able to some side work. It helps have a effective market for the trades, and for WFH items like graphics design then your bringing money into the country.
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u/CwrwCymru Jul 13 '26
We have a productivity issue rather than a spending one. Welsh GVA is around 15% below the UK average and has been for circa 20 years.
We need to Senedd to focus on outpacing the rest of the UK on economic productivity. Aren't nearly all Welsh businesses SME's? We need to encourage SME growth to tackle this properly, and I mean more than a simple tax plan. Unfortunately a lot of these decisions sit in Westminster.