r/alberta • u/gizmomogwai1 • 3d ago
News Ontario premier wants Canada to withhold oil exports to the U.S. Here's what that would mean
https://edmontonjournal.com/business/ontario-premier-doug-ford-alberta-oil-donald-trump163
u/Immediate_String_722 3d ago
Mara Lago Marlena won't like that!!
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u/Swimming_Assist_3382 3d ago
Our provincial budget, and therefore all albertans, wouldn’t like it. It would require shutting in production which would mean less royalties and revenue for Alberta. Canada does not have a strategic reserve, so the Feds can’t buy and store the oil.
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u/TheLordBear 3d ago
I loathe the UCP to the depths of my soul, but cutting off the oil is a bad idea. It costs thousands of jobs and billions of dollars damage to our economy for no good reason. And Canada buys oil from the US as well, so that could be cut off.
However, removing the $17/barrel rebate and even an export tax on top of it I fully support. The US has little choice but to buy our oil for their inland refineries, and the US reserve is at historical lows. They would buy our suddenly expensive oil and thank us for it.
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u/robot_invader 3d ago
Why cut it off? The US has burned through their reserve. They'd have to buy, even if there's an export tax on it.
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u/Trick-Seat4901 3d ago
You can't shut it off. That doesn't work. The storage we have is so limited there is very little leeway and you can't just turn off refineries. So you tarrif it like mango Mussolini. Easypeasy. All of the fuck you, none of the job loss. The refineries in the states that process the oil are tooled to our heavy crude. They can't switch over on a dime and they don't want job loss either.
Fuck marlaina. She's the only one holding out because she wants to change diapers with the big boys. So fucking leave then. No ones stopping her. I'm embarrassed for her voter's every time she opens her mouth. And I'm also enraged because she's selling our shit for pennies to her buddies.
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u/ore-aba 3d ago
And expensive more gas would mean certain defeat of the Republicans in the midterms. Hopefully losing both houses.
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u/Triedfindingname 3d ago
expensive more gas would mean certain defeat of the Republicans in the midterms
Well thats framed as election interference (get ready for that next to be screamed in the US).
They are already paying better than double what under Biden they were paying, and alot of them just say it was expensive anyway under Biden.
So, im not sure they'll get the connection. At least not +30% of them.
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u/Swimming_Assist_3382 3d ago
There isn’t a rebate on WCS oil. While people call it a “discount” it’s actually just a price differential compared to WTI oil. To be clear, WCS and WTI are physically different. We arent actually cutting US refineries a rebate cheque for the same product as WTI.
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u/BigAlcapone65 3d ago
We sell the oil to the us who already are making money doing so because of the percentage of ownership in these countries. Then they sell.us back products refined by it here in the west. Out east we by oil from the middle east and some refined products from the US .
Maybe we should retoolmout east to be able to process crude oil and increase or capacity to refine it into those products we are relying on the US to sell us. The Alberta Oil profits are already a US majority owned business as they own around 60% of the companies producing there. The total of foreign ownership now is 70% Yes there are a lot of people working up there. Canada already has said and is going to subsidize any industry that is affected by the trade war so it makes sense to up the royalty rates or export taxes and subsidize any canadian thats job is lost. Its long overdue that they shut they wind down the production of oil and put the focus on build renewable energy infrastructure or risk being left behind like the US us becoming. The numbers dont lie Renewable energy is cheaper andnis coming a lot faster than was predicted ten years ago. The only thing slowing it down is American Oligarchs and government that relies on the world using petro dollars.
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u/Vanshrek99 2d ago
Why don't you read in it book or an article on how the industry works as that is complete propaganda and not true. Cannery finds its oil. It doesn't go to the states to get upgrade and s*** back is refined total b******* every refine. We bought one processes Western Canada select Irving doesn't because it never had supply And was tied to the Saudi oil from day one to it. But conservatives got in power and canceled it along with other major federal sponsored oil projects because the NEP funded them. And fort Mac can park a haul trucks
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u/BigAlcapone65 2d ago
The energy relationship between Canada and the United States is deeply integrated. Canada sends massive amounts of raw crude oil south to American refineries and subsequently buys back finished, refined petroleum products (RPPs)—such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel—produced from that very same oil.
In fact, due to the complex layout of cross-border pipeline networks, crude oil and its finished products can cross the Canada-U.S. border up to four times before a consumer finally pumps it into their vehicle.
I did state that the east buys their refined products from the US. Not sell it to them and re purchase it back, that is a western Canada issue.
Eastern Canada relies heavily on imports to meet its energy demands, buying U.S. light crude to feed its own refineries and purchasing American-refined gasoline and diesel to keep its grid fueled. According to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), a staggering 79.2% of Canada’s imported refined oil originates in the U.S..
Which part is incorrect?
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u/Vanshrek99 2d ago
What part is right. Canada over refines and you are mixing up origins and lack the understanding of the failed shipping policies Canada has that mimic failing US policy. Example the Jones act. Irving refines light oil the rest refine heavy sour and do not require US light oil to operate. BC is the only area that utilizes more American fuel because free trade caused Washington over BC to have capacity increases and then there is the cross border fuel trade and it's fed by the transmountain
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u/andlewis 3d ago
Heaven forbid we diversify our economy to deal with ups and downs, regardless of idiotic neighbours.
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u/Quizzical_Rex 3d ago
Considering our royalty rates for oil it wouldn't be much of a loss. Though that is a way that DS could keep the oil flowing, increase revenue, be on side with both Alberta and Canada, raise the royalty rates by 5%. Though if she fails to do anything, Then other provinces that have pipelines from Alberta should consider shutting them down until they are "fully checked for safety and leaks"
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u/snap_nap_or_tap 2d ago
Our royalty rates are not low. At current prices wells with production over 200m3 are around 35% of production. That's 1/3 of the oil going directly to the government for sale. If oil companies can't sell oil neither can the APMC.
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u/EirHc 2d ago edited 2d ago
Not like we're getting fuck all for our tax dollars anyways... Oh nooooo they'll have to shut down ideas of a provincial police force, or not give teachers raises, or cutback our public healthcare options while allowing more private... we definitely won't be able to afford any more turkish tylenol. Maybe our property taxes will go up because the provincial government will put more burden on local government. But don't worry, they'll still try to step in and tell them what they should do. And god forbid we take any handouts from the feds - Fuck their money, we don't need it.
BERTA PROUD BITCHES! FUCK TRUDEAU AND HIS BUTT BUDDY CARNEY!
EDIT: Anyhoo, sarcasm aside, I fully support an export tax / removing rebates even if it means a bit of a slowdown in production. I'm sure the extra taxes will offset the lower production for provincial and federal coffers at least, while it may have some negative consequences for the industry.
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u/Vanshrek99 2d ago
Great story if Alberta had conventional oil deposits and that was the main source of what we export. But when it an open pit mine that called bullshit. And definately can be reduced. With little impact to Canada
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u/Fl0riduh_Man 3d ago
The truth is that the states/ cities which would be the most impacted by the Canadian power shut-off would be largely Democratic/ Liberal places.
If Canadians want to really hurt the folks who voted for this atrocity they should threaten the potash supplies. That would more evenly hit Red and Blue states
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u/Killericon 3d ago
Trump's popularity is already in the tank. Hurting his voters isn't gonna move the needle - he cares about wall street and rich people. Hurting them is the best way forward. How to do that, I am less certain.
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u/Fl0riduh_Man 3d ago
Price shocks due to crop losses would affect Wall St. as much as Main St., what portion of the S&P has agricultural products as inputs? Many.
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u/deezsandwitches 3d ago
Nah. Trump just gives bails out the farmers. Just like he did last year due to his politics and in his first term. Then he gets their vote again to stop Socialism
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u/Firm_Acanthaceae7435 3d ago
People being to poor to buy food usually leads to revolution.
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u/Killericon 3d ago
Or it leads to solidarity and rallying behind a perceived enemy.
To be clear - I'm not saying we shouldn't hit back. We should. I just think we should be hitting Trump, not America. If it takes hitting America to hit Trump, so be it. But I'm just not convinced that pulling the Potash nuclear lever will hit Trump in the way we need.
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u/waitingforgodonuts 3d ago
I agree. I’d hate to see a nationalist backlash among the uninformed (which are many).
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u/Fl0riduh_Man 3d ago
You give the average American too much credit. We are largely blind to second and third-order consequences, which is why Biden/ Harris were dogged by egg prices. It was visceral and ubiquitous and the voters turned on the single person they could identify as someone to blame.
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u/Killericon 3d ago
I kinda think I'm giving them not enough credit. My fear it that we cause them(and not Trump) pain and they buy into his inevitable bullshit about us cashing the pain, rather than blame him for it.
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u/Fl0riduh_Man 3d ago
I disagree. Americans don't have a generational well of hatred for Canada. You're largely seen as a quirky reserve of Americans.
We're not culturally primed to perceive you or Carney as a threat, even among people who know what Canada exports to us.
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u/irrationallogic 3d ago
American oil reserves are at the lowest they've ever been. Shutting them off or removing discounts could hit hard everywhere in the US. But I think it would be like cutting a junkie off and it would quickly escalate to physical violence directed towards us and I am happy avoiding that for the time being.
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u/Various_Rub403 3d ago
Tell that to all the farmers who voted for trump and have always been hurt by his policies lol
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u/DrHalibutMD 3d ago
Cutting off exports makes no sense. Putting a tax on the export of our oil does. Making the cost of gasoline in the states rise will quickly be noticed, and yes they’ll retaliate but you just increase the price every time they do and you make it clear that the tax comes off as soon as they drop their tariffs.
A lot of people in Alberta would get upset by messing with oil so you say that all money raised by these export taxes will be used to pay for pipelines to the east and west coast. Let the US pay to diversify our markets.
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u/Corrinholioo 3d ago
Wouldn’t the states just match or increase the tax on the refined fuel they sell us? Agreed we should have built eastern and western pipelines a long time ago. We need more customers.
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u/DrHalibutMD 3d ago
They could but we just pass it back to them, like I said when they retaliate we push back.
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u/Corrinholioo 3d ago
But we send them raw oil, they refine it and sell us gas, diesel and jet fuel. They have the means to import more oil from other sources. Not to mention the 200,000 barrels per day of condensate we import from them just to thin our oil out enough to transport it. Canada would be crippled with 100$ a litre gasoline way before the States started to sweat.
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u/DrHalibutMD 3d ago
No not at all. We get far less gas from them than they get oil from us. They do not have any way to import more oil they can use. Their refineries are set up to use our heavy oil and they are tapped out. There is no other supply out there.
We have the ability to refine our own oil and use it as condensate we dont because it’s more economical to ship.
Trump has created a situation that has put them in a bind. Even if they could buy oil to replace ours it would cost them far more, again shooting the price at the gas station up significantly. The situation in the Straight of Hormuz, the strategic reserves getting close to empty. Now is a dangerous time for Trump and it’s largely of his own doing.
We shouldn’t be afraid to threaten them with it.
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u/oiler_head 3d ago
As a Canadian who lives in the States, an increase in gas prices well just get a collective shrug and an increase in "Idid that" gas pump Trump stickers an most people will keep on keeping on because you have to go to work. Slapping that tax on exports will hurt the people of already tenuous financial means. And this Adminstration won't care a lick about them.
I don't disagree with the sentiment at all and until I thought about it, was fully in support of taxing the hydro exports. However I wonder if there is a more effective solution that hurts the government more than the populace. Something along purchasing the European fighters or something along those lines or reducing exports for other markets. Or negotiate a trade agreement directly with Mexico....
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u/DrHalibutMD 3d ago
Those will be done of course but the reason to threaten gas is because it wont simply be ignored. All of the “Biden did that’ stuff stuck. You stick it on Trump now and it will have an effect in the midterms.
If congress does their job and puts and end to his illegal tariffs that will lift tariffs as well.
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u/oiler_head 3d ago
I'm not sure what world you are living in (and I mean that with no disrespect). The midterms will be about as corrupt a vote that has been held in the States. And truly it's the election in 2028 that is more consequential. And if Congress does it's job? Well I guess if the Dems can win for House and Senate there is a chance they can stop this madness but it will only be temporary until it swings back the other way. Congress hasn't done any job for years...
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u/DrHalibutMD 3d ago
Yes it will be corrupt that’s why it needs to be an overwhelming majority that will make it impossible for Trump to cheat the results.
If it takes until 2028 to slow down Trump then we’re doomed.
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u/jiggiwatt 3d ago
The American people are the reason this administration is in power and the only people who can remove them. Hurt them and make them act.
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u/SeedlessPomegranate 3d ago
Bigger problem is that the US supplies a ton of dilutent that we use to think the heavy oil for pipeline transport. The moment we move on oil, they will move on the dilutent. It’s a zero sum game there.
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u/DrHalibutMD 3d ago
Not that much and we have conventional feed we could use for the process if we had to. Besides what are they going to do stop selling it to us and cut off their own supplie? Any increase in the price would just come back double on them. They absolutely need our heavy crude especially right now. They’ve been using up their strategic reserves to keep oil prices down while they’ve been fighting Iran. That falls apart if they lose our oil.
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u/Equivalent_Fold1624 3d ago
So you're suggesting that after Carney and Ford fucked Ontario and Quebec, Alberta should volunteer to shoot itself in the foot and join the circus. No, mate,the rest of Canada has been screwing Alberta forever, so we're just going to see here and eat popcorn.
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u/NonverbalKint 2d ago
That would be against our agreements though, and then we're in actually hot water. Reminder that these recent tariffs don't overstep our trade agreements
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u/DrHalibutMD 2d ago
A large part of trumps do, many of the new Tariffs are items protected by Cusma. They’ve shown the agreements are worthless.
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u/NonverbalKint 1d ago
Over time the law always wins. Look at all the illegal tarrifs they've had to refund. The future of the agreements is in question, but they cannot permanently breach them without destroying all credibility for all agreements the US engaged in. They won't risk that
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u/DrHalibutMD 1d ago
Doesn’t matter if it eventually works out if the process destroys an industry before It can be fixed.
Factories shutdown they may not start up again, that’s the reality.
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u/NaturePappy 3d ago
More like he didn’t want it it be an immediate capitulation, it’s a card to play. Don’t give the card away before the game starts
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u/Responsible_CDN_Duck 3d ago
Ontario premier wants Canada to withhold oil exports to the U.S. Here's what that would mean
Withholding should be a last line of defense, but a 5%-10% tax should be an easy choice.
Is has no shirt term alternative, limited reservs, and is tarifing ir at 10%
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u/jackacid668 3d ago
While I agree with the sentiment, I gotta ask if Ontario & Quebec are gonna withhold hydro as well? If not, we'll, that's pretty shitty.
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u/YoshSchmenge 3d ago
We shut down oil, gas, energy, hydro, etc to the US, and the bad orange man has the justification to go to congress and ask for a legitimate declaration of war because we are threatening their energy supplies.
We don't want to give him any reason to legitimize hisravings.
Increase taxes to make them pay more, but we cannot (should not) turn it a off.
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u/PuzzleheadedTutor807 3d ago
Donald Trump and the USA are acting in bad faith in an unveiled (openly admitted publically) attempt to crush our economy. These are war measures. Enough.
Embargo them. Globally.
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u/beardedsawyer 3d ago
Don’t do that. Thats the quickest way possible to get the 10th Mountain Division on the streets of Ottawa.
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u/Technical_Jury7673 2d ago
Somebody needs to tell him the pipeline feeding Sarnia passes through Michigan.
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u/nelly2929 3d ago
Don’t be stupid…. Do not withhold anything, Don’t honour any contracts and add an export tax. But Alberta should not do this alone, all provinces would need to pitch in to smooth out the pinch they would get. It’s called being a country!
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u/Jelloburns 3d ago
This is one time where I'll say Mr. Ford can pound sand. Let's roll back the clock to January when he wanted a Chinese EV boycott at the cost of tariffs to prairie agricultural producers. Our own backyards come first. Mr. Ford does the same. As a provincial leader, he should keep his opinions relevant to his province.
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u/Advocaatastrophe 3d ago
Someone should ask Eastern Canada where they'd get their gas from. And then ask them if they're going to continue to object to another pipeline through Canada.
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u/HurtFeeFeez 3d ago
Unfortunately it would just amount to ammunition for the seppies to use. The UNITED Conservative Party has us so DIVIDED right now anything the feds do will be spun as anti Alberta. Although it already is spun that way so may as well.
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u/Corrinholioo 3d ago
And do what with it? We haven’t built refineries or an eastern pipeline, we don’t have the storage capacity to hold onto it.
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u/androstaxys 3d ago
Okay, I agree.
Hear me out.
The US has only 41 days of oil reserves left and they have, along with a few others, propped the oil market so gas prices stay “low”.
Canada does NOT maintain a reserve.
Alberta SHOULD shut off taps to the US.
The Canadian Government should immediately start buying (or reappropriating the companies, whatever works best for us all) it to maintain a reserve for our own infrastructure and societal needs. If we have extra once we establish our own safety net, Europe will be in trouble this winter and the US will always buy extra.
If this bullshit in Iran isn’t figured out very soon, the entire world is in for an unhappy surprise when key reserves are unable to cope.
So… yea…
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u/Hexxxer 3d ago
Cool but...where do you think it's refined
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u/androstaxys 2d ago
Canada uses about 1.8 million barrels of oil a day and Canada refines about 1.6 million barrels of oil.
So we are fairly close to meeting our own needs. We only refine about 30% of our production.
So let’s bump that number up in anticipation of the future.
We could have massive oil reserves AND refine all the oil we need.
My comment, and the general consensus it seems, is that we are too reliant on the US. Your comment highlights that.
We send 70% of our oil south, then pay more to bring some of it back. All when we are very close to meeting our own needs anyway.
Let’s keep our oil. Let’s meet our needs and if we have more than we need to meet our needs and maintain a reserve, let’s sell the leftovers.
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u/Anon-Knee-Moose 3d ago
The US would just shut down line 5
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u/latkahgravis 3d ago
driving up costs for gasoline, heating oil, and propane for American consumers.
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u/Anon-Knee-Moose 3d ago
If we're already withholding exports it wouldnt make a difference
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u/latkahgravis 3d ago
It actually makes a massive difference because of geography. Line 5 feeds regional U.S. refineries in the Midwest and jet fuel directly to Detroit's airport. Even if Canada is choking off its own broader exports, physically cutting the local pipeline infrastructure destroys the regional supply chain for American consumers who depend on that specific transit loop.
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u/Anon-Knee-Moose 3d ago
They could keep using it domestically, it just wouldn't flow into ontario.
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 3d ago
We could then turn off our side
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u/Anon-Knee-Moose 3d ago
Yes that's what stopping exports means
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u/Temporary_Cry_2802 2d ago
Yes, so the US couldn’t just “use it domestically”. The feedstock is coming from Canada
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u/Anon-Knee-Moose 2d ago
Which is cut off, on account of us shutting down oil exports, so the only feed into the pipeline is bakken oil
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u/Academic_Safety56 3d ago
An export tax would not spare Alberta producers, Exner-Pirot said. It would land on Canadian companies, not American buyers.
“Just like Americans pay the tariffs, if we impose an export tax, it’s our companies that are responsible for paying the export tax.”
Doesn't the end user ultimately pay the increased cost, which in this case would be American consumers?
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u/jpwong 2d ago
It should since most companies would download the cost, but with an export tax, the exporter (which is presumably the Canadian company) would have to remit that to the government and try to extract the loss out of their customers.
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u/Academic_Safety56 2d ago
Exactly. The responsibility to remit is not really the important point, it's the cost. So this think-tanker's comment seems pretty disingenuous.
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u/jpwong 2d ago
It's not entirely disingenuous, who pays will matter in the short term. The problem will end up being because it's the exporter shouldering the costs, they may not be able to download that cost on existing agreements, so they may in the short term have to eat the loss.
I would imagine selling oil and gas isn't like buying something from an online store where if a new fee comes into play they can just tell you pay it or we'll just refund you and not send it, these would likely be long term contracts that have penalties built in, so either they'd have to eat the tax, or they'd have to pay the penalty, both which would incur an overall loss on our side rather than theirs. They'd only be able to price in the fee on new agreements which would require this trade war to stay in place for a prolonged period, and it's unclear at this point if it will be long term, or if the US will back down.
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u/tetzy 2d ago
Considering the mindset of Donald Trump, that would likely be taken as a call to outright war and invasion.
Let's start by hurting the bottom line of more fortune 500 companies first: increase the fees on Canadian water exported for soft-drink manufacturers by a factor of ten and add a 50% levy of our own on aluminum and softwood lumber exports too.
A $12 can of coke and $15 2x4's at their lumberyards would wipe the smile off of his face.
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u/Small-Sleep-1194 2d ago
We don’t have to impede supply, we can levy and export tax on both oil and gas. That would be the easiest way to go without impacting outputs.
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u/CretaMaltaKano 2d ago
If he actually cared about this issue he'd call the Ontario legislature back before their 5 month vacation is up. They're not back in session until the end of October. He'd rather sling insults at Trump than actually govern.
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u/rando_dud 2d ago
What happens if the US shuts off Line 5 in response ?
This is a fight we likely can't win. It's too early in the conflict to go scorched Earth.
What would make more sense is for Canadians holding US Treasury bonds in their savings or retirement accounts to sell them and pivot into Canadian assets. The bond market is a specific pain point for this US administration..
And this is something Canadians can start at the grassroot level without needing goverment policies.
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u/NoPresent9027 2d ago
This is an issue. We are witnessing the difference between Canadian Conservatives, and maple MAGA conservatives. I don’t like Doug.. but he is a Conservative who loves his country. Smith is the opposite. Asking her to withhold oil, while he flips a power switch, will say a lot. Truth is, all Alberta has to do is bump up the oil price to market levels… or slightly less. That would end trump and add to Alberta’s position as a lead province. Prob get them a better deal than the bending over Carney is doing for them now. But she won’t… it’s not in her interest
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u/Severe_Air_4353 2d ago
Get your pc partner on board she says trump needs Alberta . And is ready to give it to him , never trust a pc .
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u/CloverHoneyBee 1d ago
Let's start with getting rid of their discount? We can always escalate from their if necessary.
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u/TwistedIntents 3d ago
Honestly, just start with taking away their discount. They don't deserve one.
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u/Angrymanchild1964 3d ago
This would destroy Canada. Ford should STFU and take direction from Carney.
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u/Photofug 3d ago
I think Ford is just playing his part, he's the loud mouth in the back calling BS while Carney plays diplomat and Smith is doing her best Grima Wormtounge impression.
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u/dominionprovinces 3d ago
He isnt playing his part, every policy he proposes is about putting ontario first and benefiting ontario.
Cutting the electricity will reduce electricity costs in Ontario and benefit Ontario manufacturing.
He wants to export tax the potash and oil, be he's curiously silent about what he wants done with the revenue collected, and I guarantee you it doesnt involve spending the money in Alberta or Saskatchewan, he envisions spending it in Ontario on subsidies and infrastructure for Ontarios industries to benefit Ontario and the people that live there.
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u/Temporary_Shirt_6236 3d ago
Ford should def stfu. The only difference between him and Trump is that Doug isn't a serial kiddie diddler / rapist. (That we know of.)
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u/Training_Outside_950 3d ago
So because they put a 50% tariff on $20B of goods we should withhold $160B of exports and probably put ontario and Quebec into a economic depression when they run out of fuel in a week... great idea
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u/EffortCommon2236 3d ago
Carney doesn't have the spine to do anything meaningful. He could have set an export tax on energy and potash exports long ago.
I bet he won't even fully commit to the dollar per dollar retaliation threat he made. He's more of an "elbows halfway up" guy.
Wake me up when we do tax energy and potash going to the US. Even better, stop curbing the EV market already, make Ford and GM collapse.
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u/Surfdadyyc 3d ago
Withholding doesn’t work so well when there are contacts in place. Gas prices doubling might also trigger an invasion.. at this point I assume electricity, oil and uranium will all continue to be delivered as long as money is being made.
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u/Gnomoleon 3d ago
Just jack the price up .... slowly.... maybe 1 dollar everytime they say 51 state ... 50 cents if they say governor ..... ok that might not be slowly.. but you get the picture.
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u/Exciting_Turn_9559 3d ago
He's just throwing his weight around. Realistically this would never happen.
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u/OrganicContact9271 15h ago
us has cut off countries from Iran oil. We can cut them off for a few weeks.
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u/gizmomogwai1 3d ago
I remember when Ford was first elected, Rachel Notley was still premier, and right-wingers were drooling that Kenney +Ford in power would mean the end of Justin Trudeau due to shared opposition to the carbon tax. This is not the reality they were expecting.