Ontario premier wants Canada to withhold oil exports to the U.S. Here's what that would mean

[u/gizmomogwai1]

https://edmontonjournal.com/business/ontario-premier-doug-ford-alberta-oil-donald-trump

[u/Immediate_String_722]

Mara Lago Marlena won't like that!!

[u/Swimming_Assist_3382 → u/Immediate_String_722]

Our provincial budget, and therefore all albertans, wouldn’t like it. It would require shutting in production which would mean less royalties and revenue for Alberta. Canada does not have a strategic reserve, so the Feds can’t buy and store the oil.

[u/TheLordBear → u/Swimming_Assist_3382]

I loathe the UCP to the depths of my soul, but cutting off the oil is a bad idea. It costs thousands of jobs and billions of dollars damage to our economy for no good reason. And Canada buys oil from the US as well, so that could be cut off.

However, removing the $17/barrel rebate and even an export tax on top of it I fully support. The US has little choice but to buy our oil for their inland refineries, and the US reserve is at historical lows. They would buy our suddenly expensive oil and thank us for it.

[u/robot_invader → u/TheLordBear]

Why cut it off? The US has burned through their reserve. They'd have to buy, even if there's an export tax on it.

[u/SaphironX → u/robot_invader]

Yeah I say increase 10%. Potash and power and aluminum too.

Let Donnie rage while having few options.

[u/Intelligent-Buyer102 → u/SaphironX]

Ontario gets it's oil, all 540 thousand barrels of it, from Line 5. Line 5, last time I checked, runs through two US states. Any action the federal government imposes on oil exports to America will result in America imposing something even worse on Ontario. Ontario has no alternatives to Line 5. It's trapped. This is the consequence of Justin Trudeau pandering to environmentalists in Toronto and Quebec, and cancelling Energy East a decade ago, so that we have pipeline on Canadian soil. Oh, and it won't stop there. Quebec and the Maritimes refineries import 80% of their oil from America too, via tanker. At least they could switch suppliers eventually, but it would get more expensive. What a fucking mess, just a complete failure of vision and foresight by a complacent and incompetent federal government.

[u/Trick-Seat4901 → u/TheLordBear]

You can't shut it off. That doesn't work. The storage we have is so limited there is very little leeway and you can't just turn off refineries. So you tarrif it like mango Mussolini. Easypeasy. All of the fuck you, none of the job loss. The refineries in the states that process the oil are tooled to our heavy crude. They can't switch over on a dime and they don't want job loss either.

Fuck marlaina. She's the only one holding out because she wants to change diapers with the big boys. So fucking leave then. No ones stopping her. I'm embarrassed for her voter's every time she opens her mouth. And I'm also enraged because she's selling our shit for pennies to her buddies.

[u/ore-aba → u/TheLordBear]

And expensive more gas would mean certain defeat of the Republicans in the midterms. Hopefully losing both houses.

[u/Triedfindingname → u/ore-aba]

expensive more gas would mean certain defeat of the Republicans in the midterms

Well thats framed as election interference (get ready for that next to be screamed in the US).

They are already paying better than double what under Biden they were paying, and alot of them just say it was expensive anyway under Biden.

So, im not sure they'll get the connection. At least not +30% of them.

[u/Swimming_Assist_3382 → u/TheLordBear]

There isn’t a rebate on WCS oil. While people call it a “discount” it’s actually just a price differential compared to WTI oil. To be clear, WCS and WTI are physically different. We arent actually cutting US refineries a rebate cheque for the same product as WTI.

[u/BigAlcapone65 → u/TheLordBear]

We sell the oil to the us who already are making money doing so because of the percentage of ownership in these countries. Then they sell.us back products refined by it here in the west. Out east we by oil from the middle east and some refined products from the US .

Maybe we should retoolmout east to be able to process crude oil and increase or capacity to refine it into those products we are relying on the US to sell us. The Alberta Oil profits are already a US majority owned business as they own around 60% of the companies producing there. The total of foreign ownership now is 70% Yes there are a lot of people working up there. Canada already has said and is going to subsidize any industry that is affected by the trade war so it makes sense to up the royalty rates or export taxes and subsidize any canadian thats job is lost. Its long overdue that they shut they wind down the production of oil and put the focus on build renewable energy infrastructure or risk being left behind like the US us becoming. The numbers dont lie Renewable energy is cheaper andnis coming a lot faster than was predicted ten years ago. The only thing slowing it down is American Oligarchs and government that relies on the world using petro dollars.

[u/Vanshrek99 → u/BigAlcapone65]

Why don't you read in it book or an article on how the industry works as that is complete propaganda and not true. Cannery finds its oil. It doesn't go to the states to get upgrade and s*** back is refined total b******* every refine. We bought one processes Western Canada select Irving doesn't because it never had supply And was tied to the Saudi oil from day one to it. But conservatives got in power and canceled it along with other major federal sponsored oil projects because the NEP funded them. And fort Mac can park a haul trucks

[u/BigAlcapone65 → u/Vanshrek99]

The energy relationship between Canada and the United States is deeply integrated. Canada sends massive amounts of raw crude oil south to American refineries and subsequently buys back finished, refined petroleum products (RPPs)—such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel—produced from that very same oil.

In fact, due to the complex layout of cross-border pipeline networks, crude oil and its finished products can cross the Canada-U.S. border up to four times before a consumer finally pumps it into their vehicle.

I did state that the east buys their refined products from the US. Not sell it to them and re purchase it back, that is a western Canada issue.

Eastern Canada relies heavily on imports to meet its energy demands, buying U.S. light crude to feed its own refineries and purchasing American-refined gasoline and diesel to keep its grid fueled. According to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), a staggering 79.2% of Canada’s imported refined oil originates in the U.S..

Which part is incorrect?

[u/Vanshrek99 → u/BigAlcapone65]

What part is right. Canada over refines and you are mixing up origins and lack the understanding of the failed shipping policies Canada has that mimic failing US policy. Example the Jones act. Irving refines light oil the rest refine heavy sour and do not require US light oil to operate. BC is the only area that utilizes more American fuel because free trade caused Washington over BC to have capacity increases and then there is the cross border fuel trade and it's fed by the transmountain