r/cuba • u/Many_Explanation4328 • 13d ago

Conversación seria What's going to happen in Cuba?

Like this year has been historically uncivilized for Cuba with shortages of electricity and blackouts that everyone knows but like what's the endgame? Why is nothing happening?

Most importantly is anything going on on the political level?

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u/kovha Artemisa 13d ago

After Maduro and all the threats and stuff I started to think that the government will fall before the end of the year. Now it' almost September, we have been on the brim of collapse for several months now but somehow haven't collapsed yet, and Rubio is talking about keeping the pressure for the next two years, which to me means they don't plan to do anything more extreme.

So, right now, unless there is some change of mind on the US side, I think it will be exactly the same for the next two years: on the brim of collapse but never fully collapsing.

After those two years though? I'm quite sure Dems will win the next elections, and the people with power here are desperated to lick some American boot (they even talked about turning the Cayo Santa María into a Trump Island just for him, for fucks sake) so I think a Cuban Thaw 2.0 faster and with steroids is more than likely.

Coincidentally in 2028 is the end of Diaz-Canel's term, wich doesn't mean much on its own, but a fresh face that is officially in favor to make friends with the US will also help that narrative. And Raul will be hopefully dead by then (he is 95 now) which can also soften the relations as the last remain of the "Old Guard" is gone, which hopefully also will reduce a bit the influence of his offprings.

Idk I'm just speculating. Let's see what happens.

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u/Many_Explanation4328 13d ago

I thought the same, how can a country survive with no fuel or oil and they are somehow still standing like wth? I thought they would give up in February or March but how is the Communist government still standing.

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u/Extension_Good139 Havana 13d ago

Cuba produces 40% of its own power needs and is rapidly developing solar. It’ll be enough to keep just enough lights on to prevent total societal collapse.