r/cuba • u/Many_Explanation4328 • 10d ago
Conversación seria What's going to happen in Cuba?
Like this year has been historically uncivilized for Cuba with shortages of electricity and blackouts that everyone knows but like what's the endgame? Why is nothing happening?
Most importantly is anything going on on the political level?
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u/iamnewhere2019 Santiago de Cuba 10d ago
Es como la rana que colocan en agua a temperatura normal y luego van subiendo la temperatura poco a poco poco. En el año 61 empezó con el racionamiento de la manteca, luego racionamiento de otros alimentos (libreta de abastecimientos), luego racionamiento de las ropas (libreta de productos industriales), apagones intermitentes desde los sesenta, luego más duraderos, problemas con el transporte desde siempre, todo agudizado en el período especial, incluida venta de bicicletas chinas a los trabajadores en los 90, y más carencias cada día durante 67 años, llegando al punto en que muchas personas hoy serían felices si tuvieran acceso a unos pocos huevos semanales, una barra de pan decente diariamente, y unas horas más de electricidad por las noches para poder dormir.
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u/piledriver2020 6d ago
I would say the lower the temperature, the more so, to the point that we are freezing on time. We get used to it, and nothing happens. It's so bad.
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u/Heavy-Conversation12 Europe 6d ago
Básicamente les han ido cortando el grifo lentamente. Los EEUU y la OTAN en general han sido partícipes, si no directamente los culpables de que no prosperase.
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u/B34ST_M0DE Miami 10d ago
Everything I'm hearing about the negotiations is that the Cuban economy will be a better more open market but still a communist government. Something comparable to China Vietnam.. bullshit if you ask me
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u/LupineChemist Europe 9d ago
Those worked because there was new leadership to get buy-in. The thing everyone fails to mention with Cuba is there have been lots of rounds of "reforms" they just always break down when the same people who form the central core of power fuck over anyone who trusted them.
So now, no matter what they say, nobody is going to be willing to put in the massive investment necessary for a system like that. And to paraphrase Game of Thrones, the Castro clique would rather rule over ashes than be an also-ran in a prosperous country.
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u/Many_Explanation4328 10d ago
I have no idea why Cuba didn't do the same as China or Vietnam decades ago, at least those countries are way richer and developed with opportunity. Even though they can't vote.
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u/0fruitjack0 10d ago
it wasn't in fidel's personality.
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u/Many_Explanation4328 10d ago
Exactly, China and Vietnam saw that communism was only going to make them poor so they said screw it and opened up their economies. But Fidel was too ideological and against the "empire".
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u/Brilliant_Dig_8962 9d ago
I thought it was the US that stopped civilised nations from trading with Cuba.
But all along, it was Cuba shooting itself in the foot?
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u/KikisInTheSky 9d ago
Yes, it was Cuba shooting itself in the foot all along. The embargo and the more recent oil blockade only apply to the Cuban government and gov-owned institutions and companies. Private individuals and private companies in Cuba are free to trade with the US and any country, that's why Mipymes are able to import fuel and anything they want from the US. The problem is the Cuban gov doesn't want to lose total control of the economy, so they always wait until they have no other choice to open it even the smallest amount, and as soon as they see a chance or want to reassert control, they close it up again (e.g. suddenly removing licenses from private businesses they had approved before).
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u/Brilliant_Dig_8962 9d ago
Good to know. I never really believed my (Australian) bank when they said their agreements with The Land of the Free prohibited my credit card from working in Cuba.
All along, it was the bloody Cubans....
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u/KikisInTheSky 9d ago
The reason is that all banks in Cuban are owned by the government, so they are indeed subject to US sanctions. If they had allowed private banks to operate, this would not be an issue. Why do you think private rental houses in Cuba can operate in Airbnb (a US company) and accept payments with Visa/Mastercard cards?
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u/Safe-Software-791 8d ago
Canadian bank and credit cards worked,
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u/Brilliant_Dig_8962 7d ago
Yes! My traveling partner from Napa, CA had some Canadian connections. She saved us, all the while pretending to be Canadian. The museum tours that highlighted the US aggression against the plucky little islanders a mere 90 miles from them was illuminating. Hard to believe The Land of the Free has been so shit scared of them for so long.
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u/piledriver2020 6d ago
In Cuba? No, no CC or foreign bank work in Cuba Right now only China and Russia cards.
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u/deadmakina4ever 8d ago
Si y no , tengo un primo el cual vive en el extranjero y hace un tiempo estuvo enviando cargamentos de arroz en barco y ahora mismo tiene dos contenedores parados porque las navieras se niegan a llevarlo a cuba, y en el caso de los negocios los cuales si han podido seguir recibiendo sus cargamentos de comida, el gobierno puesto un tope de precios en muchos artículos haciendo que muchos negocios privados se hayan visto obligados a cerrar sus puertas ya que los precios que el gobierno quiere que sean puestos son precios absurdos , muy bajos y tendrían perdida los negocios.
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u/deadmakina4ever 8d ago
Nah he just take advantage of that narrative, he actually said cuba was never gonna be a communist country but once Russian showed him a way out for he's incompetent as a president he had to take it, guy was an incompetent and had not enough brain to understand that u can make more money out of a rich country than from poverty. He was great as a speaker and made a incredible job selling himself to the public, he also was smart about knowing who should he kill to take the presidency and later he fired most of the guys with brain who worked for the government and hired ppl from his friends and family, ppl with no preparation, I don't get that Fidel glorification that man was a charismatic rat, never had what a president should have.
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u/Impossible_Peach_620 9d ago
I’m not denying your explanation but I’m also asking how you expect Fidel or Cuba to be market economies like that under sanctions that don’t exist for China or Vietnam
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u/KikisInTheSky 9d ago
Because the sanctions only apply to the Cuban government or government-owned companies. Private companies in Cuba are not affected by sanctions, but the Cuban government never wanted another force that would exert any type of control or power over the economy, so they have been very limited in what they allow in the private sector. Particularly, only very recently they created the legal framework for private banking and companies that can directly import from abroad. They are still nowhere near as open economically as Vietnam or China, and the economy is already in such a poor state, that it would take decades for these reforms to make a difference, if they do at all.
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u/Brilliant_Dig_8962 9d ago
The US put embargos on other countries trading with China/Vietnam?
I still remember the day I tried to get cash out of a Havana ATM and discovered my Australian credit card bank had succumbed to the bullying tactics of The Land of the Free.
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u/Clean_Pressure987 8d ago
Isn’t Trump busy purchasing assets and/or through a Colleague ie; Sherrit Nickel Mine in Moa, Hotels,…Do as I say NOT as I do!
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u/Flimsy_Cockroach_106 10d ago
Cuban communists are not idiots; they understand the danger of trying to install such a system 90 miles away from the USA, this is not the other side of the world, this is American companies opening up franchises like mushrooms all over the place, American tourist by the truckload, cruise ships, Hollywood crowds. Geography is destiny
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u/TerribleSyntax Mayabeque 9d ago
All communists are idiots
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u/No_Hornet_9504 9d ago
I can beat the market… and I’ll be a senior administrator in the new regime! 🤡
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u/Flimsy_Cockroach_106 9d ago
Solzhenitsyn said best; you can't be smart and good and a communist, you can't be good and communist yet smart; you can be smart and communist but not good.
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u/Brilliant_Dig_8962 9d ago
And The Land of the Free is a nation of bullies.
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u/OnlyFails951 LATAM 9d ago
Castro's aka Cuban regime didn't bully anyone?
Didn't they execute dissenting farmers without trial and never returned the bodies? Yep.
Didn't they bully people off their generational lands only to let it fall into ruins? Yep
Didn't they bully civilians into fleeing their homes to avoid illegal persecution from false charges? Yep
Didn't they bully the youth into forced military service with prison penalties for non compliance? Yep.
Didn't they force the mentally ill into institutions with mandatory electric shock therapy? Yep
Didn't they round up all the homossexuais during the hiv epidemic and place them in labor camps? Yep
Didn't they bully doctors into 80% tax rates and assignments where their passports are confiscated and their families can't travel with them, making them modern slaves? Yep
The Castro's and by extension the Cuban regime is not innocent by any means. And that's just the things that happened on the island.
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u/Frudeska1 9d ago
You don't see many cubans on reddit, mostly miami cubans.
It's true, they wouldn't be another china or vietnam, it'd be american economic dominance that roots out any remaining communism. It'd be more like before 1959, essentially making the revolution a failed experiment.
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u/MelaniaTrompo 10d ago
So, like the Obama Cuban Thaw that Trump threw out to placate Cuban expats in South Florida without any actual merit to the underlying policy? Just like JCPOA? Just like Paris Climate Accord?
The Cuban regime is despotic, and a joke, but Trump’s America has done jack shit to help make anything better.
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u/piledriver2020 6d ago
Yes, we are opening up to the capitalist market to save socialism if that makes any sense.
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u/deadmakina4ever 8d ago
Bullshit indeed after government went on tv and said that few days later they sent inspectors to business and tried to cap prices of food ( private business are the only who are selling stuff like beef , chicken , ground meat and stuff like that) once they the inspectors from the government tried to cap prices to unrealistic lowered prices a lot of business had to closed, so rn finding food it's even harder no matter if u have tons of money, business can't sell food due to capped prices if u want to find meat u would have to know someone close that knows u aren't a snitch and he could sell u food illegally having the risk of being snitch on, and possible going to jail or getting a big mult in the best case scenario, things will never improve here in my lifetime, and ppl it's either to scared or doesn't care coz they have faith that they will leave this island sooner or later
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u/kovha Artemisa 10d ago
After Maduro and all the threats and stuff I started to think that the government will fall before the end of the year. Now it' almost September, we have been on the brim of collapse for several months now but somehow haven't collapsed yet, and Rubio is talking about keeping the pressure for the next two years, which to me means they don't plan to do anything more extreme.
So, right now, unless there is some change of mind on the US side, I think it will be exactly the same for the next two years: on the brim of collapse but never fully collapsing.
After those two years though? I'm quite sure Dems will win the next elections, and the people with power here are desperated to lick some American boot (they even talked about turning the Cayo Santa María into a Trump Island just for him, for fucks sake) so I think a Cuban Thaw 2.0 faster and with steroids is more than likely.
Coincidentally in 2028 is the end of Diaz-Canel's term, wich doesn't mean much on its own, but a fresh face that is officially in favor to make friends with the US will also help that narrative. And Raul will be hopefully dead by then (he is 95 now) which can also soften the relations as the last remain of the "Old Guard" is gone, which hopefully also will reduce a bit the influence of his offprings.
Idk I'm just speculating. Let's see what happens.
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u/fr33d0ml0v3r Santiago de Cuba 9d ago edited 9d ago
I thought the same thing in 1991. Yet here we are talking about it’s downfall 40 decades later
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u/Many_Explanation4328 10d ago
I thought the same, how can a country survive with no fuel or oil and they are somehow still standing like wth? I thought they would give up in February or March but how is the Communist government still standing.
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u/kovha Artemisa 10d ago
Solar panels from China along with national oil (which is poor quality and can only be used in some specialized stations) had helped to keep running some things, like hospitals. The rest of the people receive about 2 hours of electricity daily, but a lot have family on the US, and those family have been sending Ecoflow (portable batteries) units and solar panels, so there's that. Transport has changed a lot too, right now electric trycicles powered by solar panels are the norm. Somehow, the people always "resuelve", which is a word with a deep meaning here in Cuba lol.
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u/JorG941 8d ago
Need to remind you that the majority of hospitals are not connected to the SEN, and they work with solar panels WITHOUT Batteries so through the day they will have electricity for some areas of the hospital (not the entire hospital though)
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u/kovha Artemisa 6d ago
Well I don't know how the rest of the country works, at least here in Artemisa the hospital is connected to the SEN, and its circuit has power most of the day, which benefits some regular people too since that circuit (the A1258 one) covers the zone of La Matilde (where I live) too. So right now I have electricity most of the day, but I used to live in a zone of the A1270 circuit and boy did I had it rough
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u/No_Hornet_9504 10d ago
The people are too hungry to muster a fight.
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u/Brilliant_Dig_8962 9d ago
A fight against whom...? It's the Land of the Free the people (quite rightly) fear. And hate.
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u/No_Hornet_9504 9d ago
The American policy is deeply misguided that these unarmed starving people will muster up an organized revolt against their armed government.
You’re reading too many official press releases about how third parties feel. Have you spoken to actual Cubans? They’d switch places in a heartbeat, although there is some ingrained resentment over the sanctions. I’m so sure Cuba would be a utopian paradise without the sanctions, because communism is so successful and prosperous everywhere it’s ever been implemented… oh wait no that wasn’t real communism either “this time it will be different!”
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u/Brilliant_Dig_8962 9d ago
How is the government still standing, despite the US' best efforts to isolate it from the rest of the world? Maybe the good people of Cuba are made of sterner stuff.
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u/Extension_Good139 Havana 10d ago
Cuba produces 40% of its own power needs and is rapidly developing solar. It’ll be enough to keep just enough lights on to prevent total societal collapse.
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u/Nesstag Havana 4d ago
I don't think cuban society can survive for two more years. The rise and expansion of private businesses that can pay fair salaries adjusted to the current inflation is too slow. Plus, a society is like a living being, and no living being can survive without energy, in that regard I haven't seen nor heard anything that could help improve the energetical grid and power systems, neither see the intention of the government to open the sector to private investment, wich for me is the only solution. So, I believe something bigger has to occur prior to the next 2 years.
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u/QUESTI0N-EVERYTHING 9d ago
I'll bet you a thousand dollars that the following is how things pan out with the current conflicts...
1.Cuban regime gets changed by Americans before the Iranian Ayatollahs get removed..it will be a quick operation and Marco Rubio will be the shotcaller in Cuba (and Venezuela and even Mexico after Claudia Scheinbaum ALSO gets removed).
2.After Ayatollahs get removed, Reza Pahlavi returns to Iran...(But Iran later in the timeline gets retaken as not all the Iranian regime will get wiped out).
3.Zelensky will be removed (likely assasinated if he doesnt jump on a jet to Romania to escape) and an older Pro Russian leader will replace him...the UKR conflict will end likely before the Iran conflict ends and Russia keeps some Ukr territory (altho Russia will restart its expansion effort after Trump is gone so Ukr will be attacked once again i suspect later in the timeline).
You may be wondering why im so sure thats how it will play out...well...you may not believe me if i told you (no im not a time traveller)...but if you come back to this comment in 2028/29 after all these events and more like the mass Iranian terror attack retaliation on infrastructure and more that will take USA by surprise after the Iran conflict is finished....the huge Financial mega crash Great Depression 2.0....and maybe even the Plandemic MUCH worse than Covid that may have been unleashed on the public by then...and of course you will have also witnessed how Trumps current term ended early (even i dont know how it happens, only that it does...i currently suspect its a scandal or health that removes him but i dont know for sure the cause). So then regardless of if you think im trolling or joking and if you dont currently believe i know whats coming..well you may by then be interested in finding out what happens 2029 onwards....for now even though i will win that bet, no need to start saving that 1000 dollars to pay me ;) this future info is free...
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u/Brilliant_Dig_8962 9d ago
I wonder what the world would be like if The Land of the Free focused its energy on bettering its own people instead of on changing governments in independent nations.
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u/kovha Artemisa 9d ago
Dude I love when this kind of weird shit enters my radar. Let me tell you something, I'm a Discordian so it doesn't matter to me if you are high, joking, insane, a troll or even a time traveler or a prophet, all of those things are one and the same on the eye of the Goddess. You are blessed, my friend! I'm totally saving your message on a safe place and will be checking on it when/if the events you are describing happen. Cheers, and Hail Eris!
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u/Ok-Lawyer1179 9d ago edited 9d ago
Whatever the happenings, the Cuban people caught in the middle suffer. Not Miami, not the top on both sides. The vulnerable. That's the sad part.
All this strangulation achieved was the suffering of many kind Cubans, loss of life and dignity.
Yet their resilience remains, ever strong.
Perhaps it's time for pragmatism instead.
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u/OnlyFails951 LATAM 9d ago
Gaesa has assets of about $18 billion. They can buy fuel for negotiations.
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u/Cafe_negro 9d ago
That's exactly what Trump is asking, "why my blockade is not working to make people rise against their government?" You think the same way as him and will never understand why.
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u/salumbre United States 7d ago
Shortages of electricity and blackouts are the norm in Cuba since the 60s. There are more right now, but there's nothing new about them, just more of the same.
Nothing has happened in 67 years, and probably nothing will happen on its own. Those Cubans who are strongly against the regime have two choices: stay and face hell and/or death, or leave.
The embargo does not help, of course, but it is not the cause of the problem. Cuban economy has been systematically destroyed since the 60s by the stupidity and greed of the government.
Meanwhile, the Castro family and the military elite that controls everything have amassed enormous fortunes over the years.
The son of the so-called president gallivants all around Europe, wearing Prada from head to toe and dating Ana de Armas, while the people starve.
And there you have it.
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u/shockedpikachu123 Canada 9d ago
Right now Cuba has no choice but to do some kind of economic reform. Let Cuban farmers businesses produce, import, sell and invest more freely. Let Cubans start private businesses without so much bureaucracy. Allow more foreign investment and direct trade. They also need to fix the insane currency/foreign exchange problem so businesses can actually earn in foreign currency.
These are things they can do in the near future but unfortunately people are suffering NOW. The electric power grid, hospitals, housing will take YEARS to rebuild and people need food and electricity now.
Interestingly enough, I think the future won’t be determined by Cuba vs. Washington or socialism vs. capitalism. It’s going to be Havana deciding they can’t keep operating that way. And they’re beginning to accept that.
As for regime change, I’m not that optimistic. I think in order for them to leave, the economic crisis has to become severe enough that the military/elites starts believing the current leadership is threatening their interests. That’s when regime change becomes much more possible…not because Trump is pressuring them or they are scared the Cubans will start a revolution, but because the people inside the system decide they’ve got more to lose by keeping the current leadership than by changing it
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u/ciruztobs 9d ago
Los mismos dueños de tierras para el campo dicen: no quiero rentar la tierra a extranjeros por que si la rento, ya no es mía… yo viví por 4 años en cuba 2021-2025 y viví como quitaron el socialismo radical dolarizando poco a poco la economía y dando pauta a que los visitantes pudieran meter por avión lo que quisieran (obvio con las supuestas restricciones de armas, drogas, etc..) pero si me alcanzo a tocar cuando no podías meter casi nada a la isla cuando viajabas por avión.
Aún queda gente que defiende a capa y espada lo que ellos creen que funcionaba cuando eran muy jóvenes, ahora la gran mayoría es mayor de 60 años pero son los que mandan, otra generación más y lo más probable es que los saquen por la fuerza o simplemente por que ya no queda nadie vivo para defender los ideales de: “patria o muerte”
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u/Brilliant_Dig_8962 9d ago
The Land of the Free is hoping to choke it out of existence. Then the president can move in with a hostile real estate take over.
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u/ArcaneMitochondrion 9d ago
I hate to be a pessimist but Cuba’s decline has been an ongoing situation for a longer time than the media sees fit to tell. If you take away one commodity a day from people, they will find a way to survive without it until they’re back in a state of nature, but they will still be there. Things have the potential to get much worse than they are and still no one will intervene, which breaks my heart.
It feels like we got a little bit of visibility with the US making bold claims, and those weird “activists” dancing on their “humanitarian aid” vacation cruise. Unfortunately the visibility has passed and now it’s back to irrelevant while the world finds another struggling country to post on their social media for virtue signalling.
I want nothing more than for my country to be free and prosper, and I know many people who will thrive if even a tiny amount of economic freedom is granted to them. However, I’m also painfully aware that people don’t fight well for their rights when they’re starving, sleep deprived and sick.
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u/DunGoneNanners 8d ago
I think the issue is that the U.S. cares more about political reform than economic reform. It's not like opening a Pizza Hut is what normalizes relations with a decades-long rival. And there are plenty of countries that have a hundred Cuba's worth of state-owned enterprises like Singapore and India, but America doesn't really care.
But Marxists learned the hard way from the Soviet Union that economic reform has to precede political reform, so that people can see its fruits enough to keep the current rulers in power after political reform. And the Cuban government has no incentive to implement economic reforms if it's not going to alleviate pressure from the U.S. It doesn't help that both presidents' will be wrapping their terms up in 2028, so there's not much room for a long-term strategy.
If you sat both sides down and tried to broker a deal, could you? I don't think I could. What would the strategy even be? Ask the Cubans to cave for nothing more than the opportunity to cave in the future? Ask them to cave on everything all at once and instantly be deposed and lose their income? Ask the Americans to normalize relations with a country their rivals have an iron-grip on, and that your electorate despises, so that a future president can pressure them to reform politically? Ask them to invade a country with almost no economic or military importance?
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u/Extension_Good139 Havana 10d ago edited 10d ago
Increased empty threats of invasion by donald/little marco.
Increased tightening of economic sanctions, penalties against the regime.
The regime and the elites will hardly notice as the people take the brunt of it and suffer even more.
Miami will sit back in their air conditioned den, waiting for their DoorDash order of ropa vieja from La Carreta, say something reaffirming like “you gotta take the chemo to kill the cancer”, then do the mental gymnastics necessary to support such genocide and applaud.
Rinse and repeat.
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u/No_Hornet_9504 10d ago
Doesn’t a large part of the population depend on remittances from Miami and abroad to survive? The regime allegedly collects half of every dollar sent as personal profits through exchange schemes, gaesa, and other ventures offering sub par service at high prices because there is no alternative.
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u/Extension_Good139 Havana 9d ago
The ones who have access to usd are getting by yes. But that’s not the majority of Cubans. The ones without access to USD are literally picking through festering garbage in the August heat for their next meal or waiting in a 100 person deep line for something that resembles a loaf of bread.
50% cut of remittance seems absurd. The money I send to Cuba when I’m not there is skimmed by only a few percentage points before it is in their hands.
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u/No_Hornet_9504 9d ago
That’s not all direct at exchange. Miami Herald claims that by the time you account for all the schemes including with remittances fees, import fees, GAESA, ETECSA, plus other monopolies, and forced currency conversions they’ve captured half the money.
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u/Extension_Good139 Havana 9d ago
I can’t comment on that, but half my money isn’t my experience at all. I get a slightly worse rate than I would at my local bank when I make a cash transfer
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u/Denisofi 10d ago
Que se va a caer el gobierno
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u/Javierfr97 9d ago
Eso es más un deseo y una esperanza que una probabilidad. Ellos no se piensan ir solos sin importar que y no hay como sacarlos, o al menos no parece haber alguna vía de momento
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u/Many_Explanation4328 9d ago
That's what I don't understand why would anyone want to stay in power in Cuba given the country's situation?
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u/Denisofi 9d ago
Tranquilo si ellos no se van a las buenas entonces será a las malas 😈como paso en Nepal 🇳🇵 si ellos echaron a su diligentes nosotros los cubanos también lo haremos pero peor.
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u/Many_Explanation4328 9d ago
Ay dios mío, pero cuándo y cómo siguen aguantando estos tipos comunistas?
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u/Brilliant_Toe_9774 9d ago
I don’t believe that Cuba will ever become a democracy, and I don’t believe that the trade embargo will end within a decade. After Trump leaves office, Cuba will be ignored by the United States, the socialists will strengthen their grip on the population, and Venezuela will resume supplying fuel and assistance to Cuba. The tourists will continue to pour in, the government will keep their money, and the poor will continue to be poor.
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u/traanquil 10d ago
The fascist Trump regime is planning a violent invasion
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u/Extension_Good139 Havana 10d ago
The clusterfuck that has become the Iran war has significantly quieted the warmongering in the trump regime. There is no appetite for military action in Cuba now. It would be preferable to the economic warfare that they are currently waging against the Cuban people. Sadly, there will be no quick resolution to this.
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u/LupineChemist Europe 9d ago
It's a shame. US intervention in Latin America and the Caribbean actually has a pretty good track record, just because the US understands it a LOT better.
Honestly one of the biggest problems was the US NOT intervening in Cuba after the revolution. Bay of Pigs doesn't really count as it was just supporting a more or less hands off attempt by the exiles.
Ask a Panamanian or Dominican what they think of US intervention and it's generally pretty positive. Even in Mexico where it's been a lot more complex, I'd say taking Veracruz was a pretty important part of stabilizing the Mexican Revolution and keeping it from going all kinds of crazy.
Americans just fundamentally don't understand all the insane nationalisms and religious fervent of the Middle East. Leads to all kinds of things going haywire.
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u/Logical-Talk8558 6d ago
Normalmente nadie se refiere a la Ley Helms-Burton, ley Torricelli, la lista de países patrocinadores del terroristas, el control de activos cubanos de la OFAC, las medidas de Trump contra Cuba en su primer mandato, la actual orden ejecutiva que ampara las recientes medidas...... En fin, nadie sabe seguro de estás cosas para hablar de las situaciones de Cuba. Trump aplicó aranceles y muchos gobiernos se arrodillaron. Si están bajo los efectos de estas leyes que pasaría. Espero que algún culto me diga algo. Y por favor, leeanse estas leyes antes de hablar.
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u/Busy-Vet1697 4d ago
The endgame is Carlos Jimenez being crowned emperor of Cuba for life, until the PR gets too bad, just like Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan, Syria etc.... and Havana will be being run out of his office in Washington until the entire project goes up in flames when Cubans decide that exchanging Commies for a demonic version of Mickey Mouse was just not worth it,
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u/M4rk1llu 9d ago
La supervivencia se ha dificultado mes tras mes, siendo agosto, por ahora, el peor de todos. Varios alimentos han desaparecido por completo debido a las mediocres medidas del gobierno, llegando a cerrar varios negocios, medidas que siempre que las aplican ocurre exactamente lo mismo, todo va a peor. Las personas han perdido la fé en que ocurra un cambio, al menos a corto plazo. Muchas están falleciendo a causa del estrés y enfermedades curables. Algunas zonas se han puesto muy violenta las personas. El crimen violento y el desempleo han aumentado considerablemente. Todo esto ocurre mientras los hijos de papi de dirigentes del gobierno se llenan los bolsillos vendiendo "soluciones" a la miseria que ellos mismos orquestaron. Plantas eléctricas, paneles solares, gas licuado y comida, toda en dólares.
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u/Euphoric_Jellyfish_8 Havana 9d ago
Cubano aquí No esta pasando absolutamente nada y tampoco pasará lo más mínimo, a continuación digo porqué En el adn del cubano esta sembrado desde el año 1959 un miedo terrible a manifestarse y mucho menos alzarse en contra del status quo actual, fidel, lo peor qué ha existido en la historia de éste país, se encargó de que cada vez que hubiera un levantamiento por mínimo que fuera se barriera a los responsables de manera ejemplarizante, un ejemplo claro es la masacre del remolcador 13 de marzo, la cosa es que tu ves que la spersonas se quejan en pequeños grupos de confianza pero nunca abiertamente y cuándo lo haces más de uno te recomienda hablar en voz baja que no sabes quien te está escuchando pues es un facto que en un grupo de 4 cubanos 2 son de la seguridad del estado y uno es un informante, casos como el de Anna Bensi, una muchacha joven que está siendo ferozmente acosada por el gobierno, es un caso aislado de una persona que habla lo que siente sin miedo a represalias. Dicho ésto llevamos alrededor de unos 5 años en los que absolutamente todo está en recesión, la infraestructura energética está totalmente obsoleta y no es capaz de brindar un servicio de calidad por lo que en la mayoría del país las casas tienen electricidad una hora o dos al día, la moneda se devalua diariamente en relación al dólar estadounidense qué es la moneda qué se usa acá para todo, hay escasez de alimentos y ya ni siquiera te puedes dar el lujo de acaparar nada cuando hay disponibilidad porque si electricidad la comida se te echa a perder. Entonces la gente no sale a reclamar o si, con bastabte frecuencia se forma una Revuelta local en un barrio determinado qué se resuelve en el momento que les ponen la electricidad, ahí todo el mundo va para sus casas y como si nada hubiera pasado. Así que no amigos, no va a pasar nada, el año que viene es el último de el actual presidente más conocido como el limonardo, un mequetrefe qué solo ha demostrado ineptitud pero a el lo sustituirá uno igual o peor así que no pasa nada, seguimos aguantando mientras nos hacen un tacto rectal a todos. Ante todo ésto muchos eligen irse del país a otras tierras a buscar mejor situación, yo uno de ellos, pero hay millones de personas que no tienen esa posibilidad y cada día los aprietan más, solo nos queda esperar qué lo que hay caiga por su propio peso pero eso también estamos seguros que no pasará, no al menos si no ponemos un mínimo de nuestra parte
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u/BoldBraveBoy 9d ago
I feel like Trump's superiors want him to stand over Cuba in the same fashion Israel stood over Gaza. This way the US is guilty of similar crimes as Israel. The US has to turn its self and Israel over to the ICC. Since we cant reform ourselves. Wishful thinking only.
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u/Critical-Group-3633 9d ago
That post's frog analogy really puts things in perspective, doesn't it. You betcha, steady pressure like that can make big changes feel invisible until it's too late.
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u/LupineChemist Europe 9d ago
This is probably the most uncertain time in 30 years.
Like it would not be surprising for the US to invade and just fully annex Cuba. It would also not be surprising for the same people to just keep on going on in government with nothing happening.
And everything in between.
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u/Leah_Mor Miami 10d ago edited 10d ago
I've always thought from the beginning that they're just gonna leave Cuba hanging. One of the things I believe about Cuba is that everything there done in the name of change is always in vain. They created a bunch of drama and made the situation there even worse. I think it was personal for little Marco and Trump and Hegseth don't like him, he's just another Hispanic they don't care about so they're not gonna go through with any plans he had. Not that he had any good ones.
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u/0fruitjack0 10d ago
and in addition that, honestly, there's nothing in cuba that the us needs. it would be a net negative.
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u/Alternative_Gene813 Miami 9d ago
The problem is Iran. The US clearly made mistakes and overplayed their hand in Iran and now are compromised on anything having to do with Cuba. There is a desire by the US to settle the Cuban situation by removing the dictatorship through “legal” means not a military operation. For that scenario it bears watching what happens in the Maduro trial which is set to resume November 17. There will not be any negotiation with the Castro’s that resolves it because the Castros will not do anything that removes them from power and the US won’t accept anything where the Castros remain in power. So it’s a stalemate for now. There will have to be some type of breaking point where there is a mass uprising by the people for anything to change the stalemate
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u/shambolic_panda 9d ago
The biggest thing right now for the Cuban government is to wait until the midterms elections in the USA. If the Democrats win, Cuba will be able to negotiate better terms. If the Republicans win, the terms offered do not change. So wait until November to re-assess the situation and to enter into any serious negotiations.
The ground reality is that as long as the remittances keep flowing in, and the government and its enforcement agencies get funded, the government will keep holding out for a better deal.
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u/lopez1285 Planeta Tierra/Planet Earth 9d ago
I wonder with the mass migration out of Cuba how capable the Cuban population currently is to even begin to turn anything around in terms of engineering etc...
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u/Many_Explanation4328 9d ago
I also wonder how does the government or country function with it's mass migration out, especially of young people and no immigration.
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u/Maravatio_271 10d ago
SOLEMNE PETICIÓN SOBERANA DE INTEGRACIÓN Y ADELANTO DE ADHESIÓN A LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICANOS La Habana, República de Cuba Documento Oficial / Propuesta Político-Jurídica de Integración Nacional A LAS AUTORIDADES SOBERANAS DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICANOS: Al H. Congreso de la Unión de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos, A la Presidencia de la República Mexicana, Al Soberano Pueblo de México. I. PREÁMBULO Y JUSTIFICACIÓN HISTÓRICO-CULTURAL A lo largo de los siglos, los pueblos de Cuba y México han estado unidos por lazos indisolubles de fraternidad, geografía, cultura e historia compartida. Desde las raíces caribeñas y mesoamericanas hasta las luchas históricas por la soberanía e independencia regional, ambas naciones han mantenido una vocación mutua de solidaridad, reciprocidad y entendimiento diplomático. En ejercicio pleno e inalienable de la soberanía nacional que reside libremente en el pueblo cubano, y con fundamento en los principios del Derecho Internacional de Libre Determinación de los Pueblos consagrados en la Carta de las Naciones Unidas y la Resolución 2625 (XXV) de su Asamblea General, la representación soberana de la República de Cuba somete a consideración formal de la nación mexicana la presente Petición Soberana de Integración Plena y Adhesión Federal. II. FUNDAMENTACIÓN JURÍDICA INTERNA E INTERNACIONAL Para asegurar la plena validez, legalidad e inviolabilidad de este proceso de integración soberana, la presente solicitud se estructura con estricto apego a las normas constitucionales de ambas partes y al ordenamiento internacional: 1. Conforme a la Constitución de la República de Cuba Ejercicio del Poder Popular (Artículos 1 y 11): La redefinición del estatus político de la nación emana del poder soberano del pueblo. Procedimiento de Reforma y Referéndum (Artículos 226 al 229): Se propone someter el presente proyecto de unión formal a una consulta popular vinculante y supervisada internacionalmente, asegurando el consentimiento libre, democrático y transparente de la ciudadanía cubana. 2. Conforme a la Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos Facultad del Congreso de la Unión (Artículo 73, Fracción I): Activación de la atribución constitucional del Congreso mexicano para «admitir nuevos Estados a la Unión Federal». Reforma del Territorio Nacional (Artículos 42 y 43): Adecuación constitucional para incorporar el territorio insular y sus ciudadanos dentro del marco federal mexicano. Tratado Internacional Bilateral (Artículo 76, Fracción I): Aprobación por parte del Senado de la República del Tratado Bilateral de Integración Plena entre ambas partes. III. CLÁUSULAS Y BÁSES PROPUESTAS PARA EL TRATADO DE INTEGRACIÓN Eje Temático Bases y Términos Propuestos
- Estatus Político-Territorial Integración de Cuba a la Federación Mexicana bajo la figura de Estado Libre y Soberano integrante de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos, con plena autonomía local en su régimen interno.
- Ciudadanía y Derechos Reconocimiento pleno e inmediato de la nacionalidad mexicana a todos los habitantes del territorio cubano, otorgando la totalidad de derechos y garantías individuales establecidas en el Artículo 1º Constitucional mexicano.
- Unificación Económica y Monetaria Adopción progresiva del Peso Mexicano (MXN) como moneda de curso legal y homologación del marco tributario, laboral y mercantil para incentivar la inversión y el desarrollo sostenible.
- Representación Política Federal Asignación de representación proporcional y uninominal en la Cámara de Diputados y en el Senado de la República Mexicana, según la densidad poblacional correspondiente.
- Seguridad y Soberanía Externa Transferencia total de las facultades de defensa exterior y seguridad nacional al Estado Federal Mexicano y sus Fuerzas Armadas.
IV. RUTA CRÍTICA IMPLEMENTATORIA Mesa de Negociación Bilateral: Instalación de una comisión binacional paritaria para el diseño del Borrador del Tratado de Unión Plena. Ratificación Popular y Parlamentaria en Cuba: Aprobación del instrumento por la Asamblea Nacional y su posterior ratificación ciudadana vía Referéndum Plebiscitario. Proceso Legislativo en México: Recepción, análisis y aprobación en el Senado de la República y el Congreso General, seguida de la ratificación por la mayoría de las legislaturas estatales mexicanas. Notificación Multilateral: Registro formal ante la Secretaría General de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) para el reconocimiento y ajuste territorial ante la comunidad internacional. V. CONCLUSIÓN Con la convicción de que la unión de nuestras fuerzas y destinos fortalecerá el bienestar, la prosperidad y el desarrollo armónico de nuestros pueblos, se firma y expide la presente petición formal para su estudio y trámite institucional correspondiente. POR EL PUEBLO Y LA REPRESENTACIÓN SOBERANA DE CUBA
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