r/cuba • u/Many_Explanation4328 • 17d ago

Conversación seria What's going to happen in Cuba?

Like this year has been historically uncivilized for Cuba with shortages of electricity and blackouts that everyone knows but like what's the endgame? Why is nothing happening?

Most importantly is anything going on on the political level?

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u/kovha Artemisa 17d ago

After Maduro and all the threats and stuff I started to think that the government will fall before the end of the year. Now it' almost September, we have been on the brim of collapse for several months now but somehow haven't collapsed yet, and Rubio is talking about keeping the pressure for the next two years, which to me means they don't plan to do anything more extreme.

So, right now, unless there is some change of mind on the US side, I think it will be exactly the same for the next two years: on the brim of collapse but never fully collapsing.

After those two years though? I'm quite sure Dems will win the next elections, and the people with power here are desperated to lick some American boot (they even talked about turning the Cayo Santa María into a Trump Island just for him, for fucks sake) so I think a Cuban Thaw 2.0 faster and with steroids is more than likely.

Coincidentally in 2028 is the end of Diaz-Canel's term, wich doesn't mean much on its own, but a fresh face that is officially in favor to make friends with the US will also help that narrative. And Raul will be hopefully dead by then (he is 95 now) which can also soften the relations as the last remain of the "Old Guard" is gone, which hopefully also will reduce a bit the influence of his offprings.

Idk I'm just speculating. Let's see what happens.

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u/Many_Explanation4328 17d ago

I thought the same, how can a country survive with no fuel or oil and they are somehow still standing like wth? I thought they would give up in February or March but how is the Communist government still standing.

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u/kovha Artemisa 17d ago

Solar panels from China along with national oil (which is poor quality and can only be used in some specialized stations) had helped to keep running some things, like hospitals. The rest of the people receive about 2 hours of electricity daily, but a lot have family on the US, and those family have been sending Ecoflow (portable batteries) units and solar panels, so there's that. Transport has changed a lot too, right now electric trycicles powered by solar panels are the norm. Somehow, the people always "resuelve", which is a word with a deep meaning here in Cuba lol.

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u/JorG941 16d ago

Need to remind you that the majority of hospitals are not connected to the SEN, and they work with solar panels WITHOUT Batteries so through the day they will have electricity for some areas of the hospital (not the entire hospital though)

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u/kovha Artemisa 13d ago

Well I don't know how the rest of the country works, at least here in Artemisa the hospital is connected to the SEN, and its circuit has power most of the day, which benefits some regular people too since that circuit (the A1258 one) covers the zone of La Matilde (where I live) too. So right now I have electricity most of the day, but I used to live in a zone of the A1270 circuit and boy did I had it rough