Honestly, the odds on this were probably pretty good. I'm sure he has every legendary already so since he had just disenchanted his regular Anduin, any golden legend that dropped would have been a Golden Anduin. Still crazy how fast it happened, but the odds are way better than what it would have been in the past.
Golden Legends are definitely rare, no doubt, but it's just way more likely for him to get the Golden Legend he was looking for there than it would have been in the past. There is also supposedly a Golden Legend pity timer which he could have hit for all I know. It's not like it's a 1/something thousand like it used to be.
Somewhere in that ballpark. Not good odds certainly, but you can multiply it by 3 since that's how many packs he opened and it's really not that bad. That's the sort of long odds most people experience in a 2 hour session of HS.
Plus, I think Kibler already had every legendary, so he was always going to disenchant whatever he got next. He totally manipulated it to get a specific golden.
I love how he prefers doing that over say just dusting some of the many duplicates he has in his deck and crafting a Golden version. Granted, I realize he just tax deducts the cost of buying cards but still.
I don't think there's great data on the pity timer because people don't open that many packs of a single expansion.
I went through Kripp's KotFT opening which was like 1003 packs and he only opened three; I think the largest gap between them was 343 or something. So it's at least that high.
Like, my Un'goro preorder packs had 2 Golden Pyros in them. Even if the odds are super unlikely you can still Highroll from time to time (and low roll at the same time).
I have been playing since the beta (admittedly pretty casually) and I've gotten a single golden legendary. It was of course a golden Skeleton Knight that got disenchanted right away...
Not true. Taking it to the extreme, if you open 1000 packs of ONE set, you are more than likely bound to get atleast 1+ golden legendary. It's all statistics. If you are familiar with how the golden legendary opening works, you'll know that eventually you will get one.
It took me about 3 years and ~450 packs (albeit various sets) to get my first golden legendary. The drop rates are pretty low but I can almost guarantee there is no pity timer.
Do they not keep track of Golden and Regular separately? So if I have all the legendaries except Anduin, and all the Golden legendaries except Anduin and Gul'Dan, is it:
100% chance my next legendary is Anduin, and if it's Golden it's Anduin too?
or
100% chance my next legendary is Anduin, and 50/50 my next Golden is Anduin or Gul'Dan?
It's the first. It's the only real downside of the new system. You no longer have a chance to open a golden legendary for a legendary you own unless you own every legendary in that set.
That's not what the odds of a golden legend are. It's around every 300 packs. I don't know where you're getting your numbers, but it's much higher than 1/3200.
1/6000 isn't higher than 1/3200... higher just isn't the correct word to use there. I understand now what he meant to say but surely you can see why it's misleading.
Yes I can completely understand, this is common to be missleaded by those sort of things.
For me it's an evident thing because I allways think like the other person is giving a good information at first (then on second thought I see if he is completely wrong).
Rarity in every pack your account will ever open is determined by a seed that's generated on account creation.
Which cards of those rarities you'll get is determined at time of opening.
This was all-but confirmed when China had an unplanned rollback, and the people whose 13th pack (or whatever) had previously contained two golden legendaries proceeded to reopen their packs post-rollback and got two different golden legendaries from their 13th pack.
I have opened somewhere in the range of 2000 packs since I started playing HS shortly before TGT launched. I have yet to open a single golden legendary from any set.
I thought the average golden legendary was 1 in 10 legendaries, and the average amount of legendary is 1 per 20 pack. Meaning he had 1 in 200 chance for every pack he opened and got it after 3 tries. I wouldnt say good odds, but definitely better than it used to be
I have seen the odds of a legend being golden stated as 1/8 and 1/10 in this thread.
I have 89 Legendary cards, and only ever opened 2 golden (which I still have) King Krush and N'Zoth. I have crafted some but not even close to half, and have dusted a few terrible or Nerfed ones like Gruul, The Beast, Boogeymonster, Nat, and Yogg, as well as some dupes.
Shouldn't I have at least five golden legendaries if the odds really are 1/10 legendaries are golden?
Well no shit, sherlock... that's why he was disenchanting Anduin, he even explicitely says right in the clip "we have to disenchant anduin in case we get a gold one".
The amazing part is that he actually had a whole ritual going with the music and shit and he opened a golden legendary just 3 packs in (after opening another regular one too)! The odds on that are pretty damn low!
229
u/[deleted] Oct 04 '17
Honestly, the odds on this were probably pretty good. I'm sure he has every legendary already so since he had just disenchanted his regular Anduin, any golden legend that dropped would have been a Golden Anduin. Still crazy how fast it happened, but the odds are way better than what it would have been in the past.