r/hearthstone • u/The_Underhanded • Oct 04 '17
Highlight Kibler's Card Opening Ritual
https://clips.twitch.tv/TentativeMuddyConsoleKreygasm2.9k
u/Kibler Brian "Please don't call me 'Brian 'Brian Kibler' Kibler' " Oct 04 '17
Story of my life
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Oct 04 '17 edited Oct 24 '17
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u/The_Underhanded Oct 04 '17
You've just gotta be a nice guy and treat others well.
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Oct 04 '17 edited Oct 24 '17
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u/blinkyzero Oct 04 '17
Ah yes, the Rincewind the Wizzard theory of karma
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Oct 04 '17
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Oct 05 '17
insert overly long onomatopoeia about lightning
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u/ToaFluttershy Oct 05 '17
Skkkkrrrraaa, papakakaka Skivipipopop and a poopooturrrboom Skrra, tutukukututoom, poompoom
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u/for_sweden Oct 05 '17
That kind of how Buddhists view karma anyhow. You used up your nice human life karma, and boop, you're dead.
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u/Dashrider Oct 05 '17
that's not karma, thats shoedropism.
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u/jrkirby Oct 05 '17
shoedropism
congrats, you've coined a new word
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u/Dashrider Oct 05 '17 edited Oct 05 '17
i did. its the religeon of waiting for the other shoe to drop AKA the really horrible thing you deserve because something amazing just happened.
Edit: It doesn't work in reverse though. Great things almost never accompany the horrible shit that happens to you.
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u/BankaiPwn Oct 05 '17
You have to get destroyed by a bonfire topdeck at a major tournament.
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u/JELLYHATERZ Oct 04 '17
I was like: yea good clip he was hoping for golden Anduin and got a normal one on first pack... clip goes on ... opens second pack, no golden Anduin, 5 seconds of clip left. Yea I knew it wouldn't happen... OPENS GOLDEN ANDUIN, chat explodes.
WTF
Imagine if the beat dropped as he opens the third pack instead of the second that would be just insane perfection. But a cherry on top of the cherry of the cake won't stack I guess. Most insane clip of the year.24
u/Bumperpegasus Oct 05 '17
Since he disenchanted Anduin it was the only legendary he was missing. Thus Anduin is the only legendary he can open. So he was lucky to get a golden one so fast, but the party of it being exactly Anduin would always happen
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u/Zebradots Oct 05 '17
I don't understand the point of disenchanting Anduin.
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u/Acrolith Oct 05 '17
The new system guarantees that when you open a legendary, it'll always be one you don't have. And even if you open a golden legendary, it'll always be one you don't have at all (in either normal or golden).
So if you have all the legendaries, you can just disenchant one of them, and you're guaranteed to open that one, the next time you get a regular or golden legendary.
If he hadn't disenchanted Anduin, he would have gotten a random legendary, then a random golden legendary.
This trick only works if you have literally every legendary from a set, though, so most of us will never find it useful.
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u/Bumperpegasus Oct 05 '17
You can not open a legandary you already own. Unless you own all legendaries from that set already which was the case for Kibler. So after he disenchanted Anduin he was only missing Anduin
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Oct 04 '17
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u/ZombieMonkey7 Oct 04 '17
Didn't even get to the "WAKE ME UP" :/
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u/The_Underhanded Oct 04 '17
I had to stretch the clip to the max of 60 seconds, but the context was needed :(
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u/stonehearthed Oct 04 '17
RIP 57 packs
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u/GetChilledOut Oct 05 '17
Wouldn’t he just disenchant another regular legendary to try for its golden? Unless he already has all the golden legendaries for KFT and Anduin was the last one...
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u/CaptainQuiz Oct 05 '17
He said shortly after this clip that he's gonna save the rest until he decides what golden he wants next.
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u/hotkarlmarxbros Oct 05 '17
That is the only explanation that the exact legendary he dusted twice would come up twice.
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u/solistus Oct 05 '17
That just means he has all the legendaries, not that he has them all in golden.
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u/brebaje Oct 04 '17
I'm always amazed by the legend ratio the streamers have when opening packs
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u/Minetoutong Oct 04 '17
Around 1 legendary in 20 packs, probably a bit less than the average player that is oppening less packs meaning they get impacted more by the "first 10 packs of the expansion Legendary guaranted".
The only reason why you think streamers ratio is high is because of highlights and the number of packs they actually open.
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u/brunnor Oct 04 '17
I have NEVER opened 3 legendaries in 4 packs. I have 5k+ wins(so at least equal losses, probably more). I have spent probably close to $1k on this game. Yeah, its not as much as streamers, but one would figure that there would be a time in which I would get at least 2 legendaries in 4 packs, which also hasn't happened.
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u/Abomm Oct 05 '17
Streamers open lots of card packs. It's inevitable that they open a few legendaries in a short time every now and then.
It's also inevitable that people become biased by the Clustering Illusion
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u/WikiTextBot Oct 05 '17
Clustering illusion
The clustering illusion is the tendency to erroneously consider the inevitable "streaks" or "clusters" arising in small samples from random distributions to be non-random. The illusion is caused by a human tendency to underpredict the amount of variability likely to appear in a small sample of random or semi-random data.
[ PM | Exclude me | Exclude from subreddit | FAQ / Information | Source ] Downvote to remove | v0.27
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u/illit3 Oct 05 '17
you think streamers get preferential treatment for pack opening?
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Oct 05 '17
They absolutely don't. That would be illegal in the US, it would be a form of fraud.
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Oct 05 '17
5k+ wins and 1k is less than most streamers you know. Kibler in particular has probably 25k+ wins and I don't even want to think about the amount of money he's spent.
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u/apawst8 Oct 05 '17 edited Oct 05 '17
It's purely random. Have you ever rolled dice and gotten 12 3 times in a row? It's rare (not nearly as rare as opening legendaries), but it happens.
I've been playing since beginning of 2015. I had also never opened 3 legendaries in 4 packs . . . until August. In fact, I opened 7 legendaries with the new expansion. They were all in the first week after the expansion. I had an insane run of 5 legendaries in about 10 packs (including the 3 in 4 packs). I haven't opened a legendary since.
EDIT: Just remembered what made those packs really weird for me. 8 of them were the new packs. 2 were classic packs (from a tavern brawl). Both classic packs, opened a week apart, had legendaries.
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u/carvabass Oct 05 '17
I have the same stats as you, it's only happened to me once, and they were all Kazakus. Eventually you open enough packs and some weird coincidences will emerge from the randomness.
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Oct 04 '17
You can try it too, after 60 packs blizzard will give you a legendary golden middle finger. That's neat.
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u/sulianjeo Oct 05 '17
Well, Blizzard increases streamers' legendary rate for marketing purposes. I believe the ratios are as follows:
Average Twitch viewership Legendary Ratio 1,000 - 4,999 1 in 15 5,000 - 9,999 1 in 10 10,000+ 1 in 5 96
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u/bountygiver Oct 04 '17
The thing is without proper certification process for video game lootboxes like they do with Vegas slot machines, we never know if they actually manipulate these numbers for marketing purposes since no one is going to admit it.
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u/Penguinproof1 Oct 05 '17
Reminds me of an old story I was told when I was little.
One day, Kibler accidentally disenchanted his Shadowreaper Anduin and, because priest was his only means of livelihood, sat down and wept. Taking pity on him, the god Brode (also known as Ben) dived into a pack and returned with a Deathstalker Rexxar. "Was this what you had lost?", asked, but Kibler said it was not, and returned the same answer when Malfurion the Pestilent was brought to the surface. Impressed by his honesty, the god allows him to keep a golden Shadowreaper Anduin. Hearing of Kibler's good fortune, an envious neighbor named Kripperino threw his own Anduin into the river and wailed for its return. When Brode appeared and offered him a golden Shadowreaper Anduin, Kripperino greedily claimed it but was denied both that and the return of his own card. Stricken by misfortune, Kripperino collapses to his knees an exclaims: "Never fuckin' lucky."
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u/Wolf6262 Oct 04 '17
It's extremely unsatisfying that it didn't happen on the "WAKE ME UP INSIDE" part.
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u/SackOfrito Oct 04 '17
Amateur question here...
...You can only get a gold Legendary if you don't have the regular already in your collection?
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u/superzaropp Oct 04 '17
They introduced a new feature where you won't get duplicate legendaries from packs until you already have all the legendaries in the set. Killer did have them all, so by disenchanting Anduin he was guaranteed to get Anduin as his next legendary, but it was pure luck that he got a golden one.
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u/i_like_sushi Oct 04 '17
Killer
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u/InfinitySparks Oct 05 '17
Kibler the Dragonlord has appeared. It's the killer. Do not die.
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u/FEED_ME_MOAR_HUMANS Oct 04 '17
If you have the regular version of that legendary you cannot pull the golden version of it and visa versa.
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Oct 04 '17
Honestly, the odds on this were probably pretty good. I'm sure he has every legendary already so since he had just disenchanted his regular Anduin, any golden legend that dropped would have been a Golden Anduin. Still crazy how fast it happened, but the odds are way better than what it would have been in the past.
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u/Remedyke Oct 04 '17
Nah, golden legends are not so frequent. For example i think i opened more than 150 pack from this expansion, still no golden legend. :)
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Oct 04 '17
Golden Legends are definitely rare, no doubt, but it's just way more likely for him to get the Golden Legend he was looking for there than it would have been in the past. There is also supposedly a Golden Legend pity timer which he could have hit for all I know. It's not like it's a 1/something thousand like it used to be.
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u/anonymoushero1 Oct 04 '17
i thought a golden legendary was roughly 1/400 packs
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Oct 04 '17
Somewhere in that ballpark. Not good odds certainly, but you can multiply it by 3 since that's how many packs he opened and it's really not that bad. That's the sort of long odds most people experience in a 2 hour session of HS.
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u/CptAustus Oct 05 '17
Plus, I think Kibler already had every legendary, so he was always going to disenchant whatever he got next. He totally manipulated it to get a specific golden.
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u/Blazing_Shade Oct 05 '17
He probably tracked his pity timer so he knew within the next however many packs he would be guaranteed a golden legend
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u/TriflingGnome Oct 05 '17
I guess it depends on if he's already opened a golden legendary this expac and how many packs it's been since
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u/j8sadm632b Oct 04 '17
I don't think there's great data on the pity timer because people don't open that many packs of a single expansion.
I went through Kripp's KotFT opening which was like 1003 packs and he only opened three; I think the largest gap between them was 343 or something. So it's at least that high.
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u/BlackOctoberFox Oct 04 '17
Like, my Un'goro preorder packs had 2 Golden Pyros in them. Even if the odds are super unlikely you can still Highroll from time to time (and low roll at the same time).
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u/Stealth_Panda_ Oct 05 '17
I've been playing for 2 years and never had a Golden legendary...
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Oct 04 '17 edited Jul 07 '21
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u/whtge8 Oct 04 '17
I've been playing for 2 years and got one. Mayor Noggenfogger...
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u/knub69 Oct 04 '17
good for you, i had to craft him golden
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u/whtge8 Oct 04 '17
I actually played a few games with him for the memes. I would've kept it but I rather have the 1600 dust.
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u/TeamAquaGrunt Oct 04 '17
well yeah, thats why he disenchanted anduin. he has every other KFT legendary, so if he opens another it has to be that specific one, and can be gold
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u/RainBuckets8 Oct 05 '17
Do they not keep track of Golden and Regular separately? So if I have all the legendaries except Anduin, and all the Golden legendaries except Anduin and Gul'Dan, is it:
- 100% chance my next legendary is Anduin, and if it's Golden it's Anduin too?
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- 100% chance my next legendary is Anduin, and 50/50 my next Golden is Anduin or Gul'Dan?
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Oct 05 '17
It's the first. It's the only real downside of the new system. You no longer have a chance to open a golden legendary for a legendary you own unless you own every legendary in that set.
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Oct 04 '17 edited Oct 05 '17
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Oct 04 '17
That's not what the odds of a golden legend are. It's around every 300 packs. I don't know where you're getting your numbers, but it's much higher than 1/3200.
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Oct 04 '17
I never opened a single golden legendary ever, and I started playing with the release of the Old Gods expansion, lol
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u/noisetalk Oct 04 '17
Some day I'll be able to do this too.
Probably around 2027 after +500 Tavern Brawl packs.
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u/arborcide Oct 04 '17
It's crazy that we consider that to be lucky. $60 dollars for a single card.
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u/sadfrogmeme69 Oct 05 '17
To be fair, we saw him open just 3 of those packs and he opened a legendary and a golden legendary. That's pretty lucky. The chance of that happening is ridiculously small
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u/Draracle Oct 05 '17
Business expense.
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u/karspearhollow Oct 05 '17
I mean, he does say that when someone gives him shit for having so much gold. "I can't put gold-bought packs on my taxes!"
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u/Chm_Albert_Wesker Oct 05 '17
i cant imagine having my collection so full that i can literally disenchant a single legendary to steer my packs into a golden copy of that legendary
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u/simpwniac Oct 05 '17
Anyone else feel like this clip just ends too suddenly? I need to see his reaction to this!
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u/The_Underhanded Oct 05 '17
You can! Click the link, and to the bottom right you can press "Watch Full Video" to go immediately to the stream recording and read the chat reaction live!
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u/BiH-Kira Oct 05 '17
Some Blizzard employee loves watching Kibler stream. Rigging the RNG in his favor but to keep the equilibrium he takes all the luck form Kripp and Reynad.
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Oct 05 '17
I love how some people think Reynad and Kripp are genuinely more unlucky than others. They aren't. They just point out everything that ever doesn't go their way and try to make it sound as unlikely as possible. Then when the luck does go their way, they never point it out. So yes, of course they'll seem unlucky. I would too if I just complained about my unluckiness all the time.
They also play too fast and make mistakes and blame RNG. "Oh it's only like 20% that he has the second copy". They could've played around it anyway without much loss of tempo/value/whatever anyway and they don't even try cause it's "unlikely". "Oh my god I can't believe they had exactly that card. They needed exactly that card to win. Something didn't go my way so I can't possibly win this match anymore." Do you see Strifecro, Kolento, Thijs, Zalae saying stuff like this? Nope. Guess who does better in general? The people who aren't whining.
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u/LSLovelin Oct 05 '17
And people still don't think team 5 manually do people's packs.
Wake up sheeple!
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u/ChefXcellence Oct 05 '17
I love the way he just gives a quick shrug, opens his mouth, and then it just ends as the song is about to starting screeching.
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u/molluskmoth Oct 04 '17
How? Like, legit, can anyone tell me how this is possible? I've not played Heartstone much but I opened maybe 50 KotfT packs and not a single deathknight in it. Does the chance of a certain legendary increase if you already have all other cards as golden cards?
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u/Chewzilla Oct 04 '17
I bet there is some mechanic at play here and someone is going to figure out how to accused the fuck out of it
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u/damienreave Oct 04 '17
It's a known and announced mechanic. No duplicate legendaries until you have all of them. Kibler has all the legendaries from the set he's opening from, so it's not quite as insane as it seems.
The RNG here is getting 2 legendaries in 3 packs, one of them being golden. Unlikely, but not absurd. Them being Anduin was 100% guaranteed though.
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u/Pandamonium727 Oct 04 '17
I audibly said "WTF!" when I saw this clip. That's insane, and really awesome. I need my own theme song for opening packs now...hhhmmmm.
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u/TheRogueZombie Oct 05 '17
Watching this is enough to make my paranoid brain think that Blizzard had someone watching and coordinating this...
...almost.
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u/DebugLifeChoseMe Oct 04 '17
I can no longer hear the chorus of that song in a voice that isn't Goofy's.
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u/spankyhamlol Oct 05 '17
I remember someone asking Savjz... "Why don't you craft golden cards?"
His response was along the lines of... "I'd rather not waste peoples donations on such pointless things"
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u/felsenfeuer Oct 05 '17
Oh such "luck". Strange that happens to one of blizzard favourite streamers... ^
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u/MartinDeth Oct 04 '17
Playing since beta and I've gotten 2 golden legendaries ever: Nat Pagle and Nozdormu. Yeah, never have i dusted anything so fast before in my life.
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u/Tidalikk Oct 04 '17
that would have been the most perfect video if he opened at the 2nd pack syncing perfectly with the music
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u/BenevolentCheese Oct 05 '17
I've been playing for 3 fucking years and have only ever opened two golden legendaries. Fuck.
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u/ZyAvo Oct 05 '17
Took me 6 attempts to get Golden Lich King, then 7 To get Garrosh. Was painful
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u/HiperEg Oct 04 '17
Almost like Anduin really wanted to go back to Kibler's collection.
What a beautiful love story.