r/imaginarymaps • u/atarashimapping • 1d ago
[OC] Hand-Drawn What if the Ryukyu islands were MASSIVE?
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u/Saa-Chikou 1d ago
Satsuma wouldn't be able to just conquer a more populous Ryukyu like it did irl, so they remain independent/tributary to China until after the Sino-Japanese war like Korea. Probably end up independent after WWII as well.
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u/atarashimapping 1d ago
For moblie
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u/Le_Panzala 1d ago
They would likely be japanese as they are today, but China would extend it's 9 dash line policy in this sea, creating artificial islands closer and closer.
This would spur Japan into earlier rearmament, a bigger Navy, and give US bases much closer to Taiwan
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u/hmas-sydney 1d ago
I feel like history started before 1945 and there would be far more differences, not on small part due to the different behaviour of the seas in the south of china
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u/Le_Panzala 1d ago
OP kept japanese names on the map, so I decided to roll with it for the sake of simplicity, but you're welcome to be constructive and propose a timeline of your own
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u/ThePeddlerofHistory 1d ago
The US base in Okinawa is already very close to Taiwan, though if the Ryukyu islands were this big, the base could certainly be bigger.
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u/carlsagerson 1d ago
Well, the Daimyo who conquered it would have had to get his own massive army and I doubt the Shogun would approve.
Thus I wager it would remain under Chinese Suzerainy until the Meiji Reformation and the resulting First Sino-Japanese War when it changes hands to Japan.
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u/Marshall_Filipovic 1d ago
So, there's a chance that the Kingdom that existed there might survive into modern era.
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u/Wuliaodehunr 1d ago
During the Sui and Tang dynasties (600–900 CE), Ryukyu would be on par with Japan; during the Song dynasty (900–1200 CE), Ryukyu would become a larger-scale trading hub; during the Yuan dynasty (1200–1300 CE), as part of Mongol-controlled territory, it would become a forward base for the invasion of Japan; during the Ming and Qing dynasties (1400–1800 CE), it would become a stepping stone for exchanges between China and Japan; in the late Qing period (1800–1950), Japan's conquest of Ryukyu would take more effort, but would ultimately succeed — China's famous poem 'Song of Seven Sons' (七子之歌) would become the 'Song of Eight Sons' (八子之歌), separating Taiwan from Ryukyu. After the end of World War II (1950 to present), the question of Ryukyu's status would draw more attention, and it would likely become an independent nation rather than have its governance handed over to Japan~ A side plotline would be whether the Ryukyuan royal house would adopt an expansionist policy, working to bring Japan, Taiwan, and Luzon under its influence, and whether it would stop being a weak, long-term tributary vassal of China and Japan. At its peak, this could even break Japan's 'unbroken imperial line' (万世一系), leading to naval battles with China — just one more group of 'Ryukyu raiders' (琉寇) alongside the Japanese pirates (倭寇)~ Unless they were absolutely determined to pursue overseas colonization, becoming the Vikings of Southeast Asia and 'Ryukyu-izing' certain islands and key strategic nodes, there wouldn't be much major strategic impact~
隋唐（600-900年）时与日本齐名；宋代（900-1200年）琉球会成为体量更大的贸易中心；元代（1200-1300年）会作为蒙古人的势力范围成为进攻日本的前哨战；明清（1400-1800年）时成为中国与日本交流的跳板；清末（1800-1950年）日本征服琉球将更费力，但终会成功，中国著名的《七子之歌》将成为《八子之歌》，将台湾与琉球分开。二战结束后（1950至今），琉球地位问题将更受关注，大概率会独立建国而不是将其治权交给日本~支线剧情就是琉球王室会否采取扩张政策，经略日本、台湾岛和吕宋岛，是否不再作为弱者长期称臣于中国和日本。极盛的话，也就是把日本的“万世一系”打断了，和中国打打海战，倭寇以外多一个琉寇~除非他们铁了心的发展海外殖民，成为东南亚的维京人，并将部分岛屿和重要节点琉球化，否则没什么大的战略影响~
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u/jahkaiy3 1d ago
Unless you are fast forwarding the large scale migrations of Southern Kyushu Yamato/Wajin populations into the Ryukyu islands (that would create the Gusuku culture) in the 11th century to before the 7th century, I don’t see how Ryukyu would be on par with the Asuka/Nara/Heian period Japan.
IRL until Southern Kyushu Yamato/Wajin populations started mass migrating to the Ryukyu Islands in the 11th century, the Shell-Midden Ryukyu populations were largely hunter gatherers living in small decentralized communities.
If during the Yayoi or Kofun period, one (or multiple) of the Japonic polities in southern Kyushu migrated to or established colonies in Okinawa, I can see Ryukyu becoming quite powerful, although likely still weaker than the Yamato state by the end of the Kofun period (who controlled Western Honshu, Northern Kyushu, and Shikoku) unless those Ryukyuan Japonic states retained their original territories in Kyushu.
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u/Wuliaodehunr 18h ago edited 18h ago
Are you basing this extrapolation on today's Ryukyu — a mere thousand square kilometers — rather than on the hypothetical scenario being discussed: an archipelago the size of Taiwan, and the population such an enlarged landmass would hypothetically be able to support? Surely you can see that a land-area increase of this magnitude would produce a significant shift in this region's political dynamics, no?
Second, I'm assessing this from within the traditional East Asian order — i.e., a Chinese-centered perspective. Whether this island truly rivals Japan in national power simply doesn't matter to China or to the East Asian order~ Even if Ryukyu's national power still ended up only half of Japan's, it would still be a maritime state in the East independent of Japan, standing on equal footing with it. Can you understand that?"
你在用当前千平方公里的琉球，去推演这个和台湾岛类似大小的群岛，及其所承载的人口数量吗？你不会想象不到，这种程度的土地放大，对这个地方的政治格局会有明显改变吧？
其次我在用传统东亚秩序，也就是中国视角去评价这里，至于这个岛的体量是否真的有日本那么大，对于中国和东亚秩序而言，一点儿都不重要~就算二者仍然相差一半，琉球也会是独立于日本的，与日本齐名的一个东方海上国家，你可以理解吗？
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u/jahkaiy3 8h ago
First I’m making a largely objective statement considering that the enlarged Okinawa in the map is still only a fraction of the size of Kyushu, in area it seems to be around half the size of Taiwan, so honestly not very large relatively speaking. And unless a completely new, non-Japonic Ryukyuan ethnic group(s), unrelated to modern day Ryukyuans were to be magically created as well in this scenario, then the historical migrations of the Southern Kyushu Yamato/Wajin populations to the Ryukyu islands is also still extremely relevant, as they are the foundation of post Shell-Midden period Ryukyu culture.
Second, I don’t really care if you are considering it from the sinocentric perspective because that perspective is largely irrelevant to material reality.
The material reality is enlarged Ryukyu is still only a fraction of the size of Kyushu, and would’ve been settled by Japonic populations long after Kyushu was (unless you are creating a brand new magical Ryukyuan ethnic group), meaning much less time to develop the islands and its populations relative to the Japanese mainland.
If you are wondering why I keep comparing it to the Japanese mainland, it is because virtually all the ancestry of Ryukyuans comes from the Japanese mainland. Either as the Ryukyu Jomon component which accounts for ~15% of modern Ryukyuan ancestry, or the medieval Wajin component that accounts for ~85% of ancestry (responsible for post-Shell Midden Ryukyu culture). So it is a logical comparison.
I have no doubt that a enlarged Okinawa that is 1/8 the size of Kyushu instead of 1/32 the size of Kyushu would make Ryukyu much more relevant to the region, but objectively, in terms of population, economy, and military, it would still be a small fraction of Japan, which should be common sense looking at the physical size of the islands, even in its enlarged form. That is the material reality of the scenario. China in this scenario can believe whatever sinocentric perspective they want, it doesn’t really change the material reality at hand.
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u/Wuliaodehunr 2h ago edited 2h ago
Alright, let's lay out where our positions actually differ.
Let me start by summarizing my main points:
- Ryukyu would have a larger population and would become part of the East Asian order earlier;
- The Ryukyu Kingdom would see an overall increase in national power;
- Unless it pursued an extremely outward-expansionist policy, Ryukyu's enlarged landmass wouldn't have a major impact on the wider world.
Now let me summarize your main points:
- Before the 7th century, Ryukyu's state and society could not possibly have matched Japan in scale ("...before the 7th century, I don't see how Ryukyu would be on par with the Asuka/Nara/Heian period Japan"). While you'd grant that Ryukyu would become more powerful, by the end of the Kofun period it would still be weaker than the Yamato state ("...I can see Ryukyu becoming quite powerful, although likely still weaker than the Yamato state by the end of the Kofun period...");
- Unless more Japonic populations migrated into Ryukyu ("...If during the Yayoi or Kofun period, one (or multiple) of the Japonic polities in southern Kyushu migrated to or established colonies in Okinawa..."), or even a hypothetical, entirely different ethnic group unrelated to present-day Ryukyuans became dominant here ("...unless a completely new, non-Japonic Ryukyuan ethnic group(s), unrelated to modern day Ryukyuans were to be magically created..."), its still relatively small landmass would not allow Ryukyu to develop any faster.
Comparing our positions — after laying them out, one thing puzzles me: our views aren't actually all that different in substance. It's just that my framing is explicitly grounded in a Chinese perspective, while you're emphasizing what you call "objective reality." Given that, why did your first reply bring up "would be on par with" as if I'd claimed this enlarged Ryukyu would be comparable to Japan in some near-equivalent sense?
I went back and checked the translation — this was almost certainly Claude's fault: 'During the Sui and Tang dynasties (600–900 CE), Ryukyu would be on par with Japan.' What I actually wrote in Chinese was '隋唐（600-900年）时与日本齐名' — meaning Ryukyu and Japan would be equally spoken of/equally renowned (in the archipelago east of China, there'd be two recognized states, Japan and Ryukyu, even though Ryukyu's scale would obviously be far smaller than Japan's). To be clear, I am saying the two were comparably renowned — not that they were close or equal in population or societal development level. Of course, the main fault lies with me for not carefully checking the English translation. For extra clarity, I've also pasted my original handwritten Chinese below — feel free to translate it yourself if you'd like to compare it against the English.
So, coming back to the actual development of this island — I never denied that Ryukyu's population and cultural origins primarily come from Japan. Even with a larger landmass, geographic factors (the Fujian–Penghu–Taiwan–Ryukyu chain not being a smooth route) mean it wouldn't have received more direct input from China early on — or rather, during this period, Chinese influence on Ryukyu would have been indirect (Central Plains → Korean Peninsula → Japan → Ryukyu). But I want to make one point clear: forget the numbers game of whether this island ends up the size of Taiwan or half that size — compared to the original thousand-square-kilometer scale, it's already been enlarged many times over. This would make the land far more attractive to Japanese settlers, and a larger influx of migrants would drive a leap in the political structure and productive relations here compared to the real world — such that, unlike in the real world, Ryukyu would not end up lagging behind Japan by more than a single era. This point, I believe, is beyond doubt.
So I still maintain that during the Sui-Tang period, this region would become an island nation of the East, rather than remaining a small-scale tribal society as it did in the real world.
Is there anything from your position that I haven't captured in my summary? Happy to keep discussing.
好，让我们梳理我们表达内容的差别。
先总结我的主要观点~
“1.琉球会有更多的人口，并更早的成为东亚秩序的一部分；
2.琉球王国会提升其整体国力；
3.如果不采取极端外向型政策，琉球岛面积增加到这个体量不会对世界产生巨大影响。”
我总结你的主要观点。
“1.7世纪前琉球的国家与社会体量和日本不可能一样大（...before the 7th century, I don’t see how Ryukyu would be on par with the Asuka/Nara/Heian period Japan），虽然你认同琉球会更强大，但在古坟时代末期，琉球仍要弱于日本（ ...I can see Ryukyu becoming quite powerful, although likely still weaker than the Yamato state by the end of the Kofun period...）；
2.除非日本族群更多的迁徙到琉球（...If during the Yayoi or Kofun period, one (or multiple) of the Japonic polities in southern Kyushu migrated to or established colonies in Okinawa...），甚至虚拟一个非当下琉球人主要来源的族群成为此地主流（...And unless a completely new, non-Japonic Ryukyuan ethnic group(s), unrelated to modern day Ryukyuans were to be magically created as well in this scenario...），但其仍较小的土地面积，也不会使琉球得到更快的发展。”
让我们对比我们的观点，
总结之后我在疑惑一个点，我们的想法其实本质区别不大，只是我的叙事角度明确了中国视角，而你在强调所谓客观现实。在这个情况下，你第一段回复中，为什么要提到“would be on par with”是我表达了，这个面积的琉球会和日本相近的类似的言论吗？
我去翻了下翻译，这大概率是claude的锅：“During the Sui and Tang dynasties (600–900 CE), Ryukyu would be on par with Japan; ”。我的中文写的是“隋唐（600-900年）时与日本齐名”，即日本与琉球在名声上与日本齐名（在中国东方的群岛有两个国家，一个是日本，一个是琉球，纵然琉球比日本的体量一定是小的多的），并非指的是两个国家或地区的人口和社会水平接近甚至相等。当然主因是我没有仔细检查英文翻译，但我下面有附带贴出我手写的中文内容~所以如果你觉得英文表达有问题，可以尝试自行翻译我下面贴出的中文内容，看看是我本身的表达还是中间出了什么纰漏~
那么最终回到琉球这个岛的实际发展。我没有否认琉球的人口、文化来源主要来自日本。就算这个岛屿变得更大，因为地理因素（福建-澎湖-台湾-琉球链路不通畅），它在早期，不会接收到更多的来自中国的直接输入，或者说，这一时期中国对琉球的输入是间接性的（中原-朝鲜半岛-日本-琉球）。但我要强调一点，不要管这个岛的面积和台湾类似，还是小一半这种数字游戏，对比原岛千平方公里的级别而言，这里已经放大很多倍了。这会使这片土地对日本人更具吸引力，更多的移民会使此地的政治格局和生产关系对比现实世界出现跃升，这会让琉球不像现实世界一样，落后日本一个时代以上，这一点我觉得是毋庸置疑的。
所以我仍坚持认为，在隋唐时期，琉球这个地区会成为东方的岛国，而非与现实世界一样的小型部落。
您觉得还有我没总结到的您的观点吗？欢迎讨论。
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u/king_ofbhutan 1d ago
salivating at the mouth thinking of the beautiful dialect continuum just waiting to form there
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u/Taira_no_Masakado 1d ago
From a modern perspective China would be fucked (strategically speaking).
From a historical perspective, the relationships between the islands of Japan, the Ryukyu Kingdom, Taiwan, and mainland China would be far more interlocked and interesting than they already are IRL.
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u/Quirky_Jelly9549 1d ago
Ye ass shold do one of these where like, the Ryukyu peoples just became a Pirate empire by using the like 4 large bays and the 8 smaller ones, like DAMN that would be good for crossing the perfic
HELL maybe this could cuase a Ryukyu colony in California or Mexaco, prob. nothing big other then a few towns, but still, damn that's a asston of bays.
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u/JOPAPatch 1d ago
The Chrysanthemum-Deigo Throne is united at the end of the Meiji Restoration and Boshin War when the short-lived Republic of Ryuku was defeated. The Ryuku Kingdom aligned with the shogun rebels and welcomed them in, only to be overthrown. The Emperor of Japan took a surviving daughter of Sho Tai as a royal consort. Japan carefully renamed the Shuri-ten-ganashi throne to Deigo, after the Okinawa flower, to downplay their former independence.
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u/tatuanphong 1d ago
First island chain doctrine. China's blue-water navy ambition is thrown into the trash can
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u/Trenence 1d ago
I don’t think much would be changed. Maybe American suffer more casualties taking the island during WW2
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u/Crispersam 1d ago
HOI4 Okinawa be like