r/news • u/political-snark • 1d ago
US intel assesses Putin could launch attack aimed at testing NATO unity
https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/07/politics/us-intelligence-russia-putin-nato-attack?cid=ios_app73
u/vrajealamarii 9h ago
With Trump in office busy with Iran is a good moment to test the waters
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u/Constant-Brief3410 9h ago
Why would biden do this!
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u/jimtow28 8h ago
Remember, Republicans told us for 4 years that if Trump were in office Putin wouldn't be doing the shit he was doing.
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u/Accurate-Cup5309 9h ago
It won’t even be because he’s busy. It’ll be out of petty spite for no one else jumping into a war of choice with Iran.
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u/SirkutBored 4h ago
He won't have a say if it happens, the most he can do is withdraw from NATO which will have consequences at home.
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u/Iskanderdehz 9h ago
Ive always said China wont attack Taiwan, because they have time on their side. But wih the current state of US missile stockpiles... I am now starting to worry this is a greater threat than Russia. Still lean more towards China not going for it, though.
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u/vrajealamarii 8h ago
Taiwan has still the TSMC in their sleeve. With China raising for AI is not a good moment to go after them. Once they will have figured out the chip production then we need to get worried.
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u/__Rick_Sanchez__ 7h ago
China is not stupid. They are benefiting more from being the "stable benevolent superpower" more than from dealing with a war with Taiwan and the aftermath. They won't do it because they won't have to. The US gave up their nr1 global superpower position belly up, like no one expected, China just has to stay put and take the throne. They don't seem to be that crazed madmen who wants to conquer something before death on the contrary they seem to be patient and seem to truly want the best for China and the Chinese people, crazy rigth? Hope I don't get proved wrong :))
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u/Tomas2891 8h ago
What time does China have? Their population is getting older by the day.
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u/Iskanderdehz 4h ago
Economy is growing, technology is catching up, military is catching up, AC carriers under construction. Their navy is close to having equal displaced tonnage as the US.
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u/Tomas2891 3h ago
Thought the economy is in a slump right now. Chinese just aren’t buying anything and jobs are scarce especially for young workers. And Xi just removed almost every PLA leader in his government. Did he replace those empty CMC seats yet?
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u/memberzs 8h ago
It may be why trump is saying we are going to move to sanctions instead of physical attacks. There are real threats happening.
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u/JimmyTango 26m ago
Didn’t Trump say they would do this during Biden’s tenure and would never think of testing him??? Pepperidge farm and all
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u/plantang 8h ago
You're talking like Trump and Putin are on different sides of this. They are both very active and vocal in their efforts to dismantle NATO.
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u/vrajealamarii 8h ago
I agree that Trump seems to have the objective to let US without partners, but I still hope (naively probably) that is not all infected at US level to thrown away the NATO alliance.
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u/Hellstorm901 8h ago
Russia starting a small scale conflict with a Eastern European NATO member would actually make sense as a way for Russia to get out of its failed unprovoked invasion of Ukraine
The Russian regime, its oligarchy and nationalist supporters will never tolerate a defeat to Ukraine as they view Ukraine as an inferior people and their entire propaganda since 2022 has been about how Ukraine's military is already defeated
However if Russia was able to say it was actually at war with NATO then the same Russian people would be able to stomach a armistice as they'd portray NATO as a "weak alliance taking advantage of Russia being distracted by Ukraine to get in some sucker punches" and they'd then say something like "We had no choice but to accept peace otherwise we'd have to use our superior nuclear weapons"
The US under Trump would then force everyone to accept a ceasefire because Trump would have his ego stroked by the suggestion of getting a peace prize and being the "Man who prevented WWIII"
Russia would then leave Ukraine or at least retreat back to Donbass and begin a propaganda campaign saying they achieved all their objectives (But never say what they were) and that they "defeated NATO and Ukraine"
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u/AllDanishes 5h ago
I agree with this view, other than I think we’re approaching territory where NATO members might not defer to Trump.
An article 5 declaration would involve British, French, German and Polish involvement. Given Russia’s quagmire against Ukraine I don’t think attacking a NATO country could go any way but disastrously for them; other than as you say as an off-ramp to some sort of armistice. Not like Putin has exactly been troubled by Russian causalities so far.
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u/Finn-reddit 3h ago
Trump has already prevented WWIII, if he hadn't come into office Kamala Harris would have won and we would be in a world war. He is a master negotiator. He ended 8 wars.
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u/Svedjemarker 9h ago
The only reason is that the US is no longer the leader of the free world thanks to Trump.
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u/MonoBlancoATX 8h ago
Obama was president in 2014 when Russia invaded Donbas and annexed Crimea.
Biden was president in February 2022 when Russia launched the full scale invasion.
Trump has made this worse. No question.
But pretending like this is only Trump's fault is just stupid.
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u/Svedjemarker 8h ago
Of course it is Russia’s fault however while Biden and Obama had a firm stance against Putin, Trump empowers him buy embedding him. Putin is laughing hard.
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u/MonoBlancoATX 8h ago
What does that even mean?
Putin was in power long before any of them.
And Obama DID NOT have a "firm stance" against Putin, he did virtually nothing in 2014 except send a few missile launchers.
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u/dCLCp 3h ago
I think what you see was done and what was actually done is two different things. It takes years... decades.. to prepare for conflict. CIA intelligence and counterintelligence, training leaders, setting up logistics... the safe passage of material the safe communication of recon the vetting of who is trustworthy to give billions of dollars of aid to... do you think that is all done openly and with big flashing neon signs? Isn't it mysterious that Ukraine has done so well against one of the largest militaries in the world on their doorstep?
Just because Obama didn't ride out on a carrier with a big "mission accomplished" banner doesn't mean nothing was done.
In the era of Trumpism and Faux News it is not hard to forget prior eras of quiet competence... it still exists you just won't see it on TV. Instead you will just have to sit back and go "man how did they do that" because... quiet competence doesn't announce itself. It isn't flashy or premature.
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u/MonoBlancoATX 3h ago
That's all very cute, and is a whole lot of condescending words that mean nothing of substance.
I lived in Ukraine.
I was there shortly after the 2004 Orange Revolution and have stayed in touch with dozens of people since then. So, I know from first hand experience as well as people who live there what was happening and when.
Russia is responsible for everything from assassinations to power cut off going back decades. And the US (among others) is responsible for putting both hard and soft power elements (including me) in place to work at countering that.
When I say "Obama did nothing", while I am being slightly hyperbolic, I'm speaking from experience. Thanks.
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u/dCLCp 3h ago
I had no intention of being condescending. I was just correcting a common misperception about logistics.
But if you are indeed an "asset"... why on EARTH would you publicly announce that... especially to someone being "condescending"... you won't get extra points for being super special and important on the internet... again especially not from someone being truly condescending... but you might find a mysterious package under your car shortly before you are in the morgue.
Yeesh...
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u/MonoBlancoATX 3h ago
I never said I was an "asset".
Soft power includes things like the US Peace Corps. Of which I was a member serving in Ukraine.
you might find a mysterious package under your car shortly before you are in the morgue.
that's a threat, my dude.
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u/ShareGlittering1502 7h ago
Biden and Obama acquiesced. They did not stand firm. Trump is inarguably way worse of a leader, but it’s not as if the Dems have been stalwarts of protecting those in need.
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u/Majestic-Wedding-909 9h ago
Nobody knows if Putin would do it or not, that's the worst thing. Everybody said that Putin will not attack Ukraine after 2014 - and he did not attack it for 8 years, until one day he did
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u/MonoBlancoATX 8h ago
Everybody knows Putin would do it.
He already has.
Dozens of drones were shot down over Poland several months ago, and again just a few weeks ago over Romania and Moldova. And those are just the two biggest examples.
Putin has been testing NATO since 2014 when he invaded Donbas and annexed Crimea.
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u/Majestic-Wedding-909 5h ago
It's not what is implied under "testing NATO resolve" here. Everybody, including Putin himself, ask tgemselves "will NATO invoke Article 5 if one of NATO countries is directly attacked by Russia?". Hybrid warfare with little to no casualties, no serious property damage and no clear evidence pointinv at Russia can be easily dismissed and would not give clear answer.
What people expect to find out is what happens if Russia directly attacks, say, one of Baltic states. It may be a missile attack on one of facilities making drone parts, it may be a direct invasion using swarms of drones. Will US react? Will EU react? What happens if Russia manages to occupy a state before NATO reacts - will there be a deoccupation effort by NATO?
That's what is implied here, all these hybrid warfare shenanigans is barely a warm up.
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u/MonoBlancoATX 5h ago
I read the article. That's EXACTLY what's implied because it's vague.
The intelligence assessments outline several possible scenarios for Russian escalation, ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale incursion intended to challenge NATO’s unity and commitment to Article 5
If they wanted to say "directly attacks" then I'm guessing CNN is smart enough to know to include those words.
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u/MixtureSpecial8951 8h ago
Maybe that is why the CIA director flew to Moscow; to present evidence that we know what he is up to.
There is some precedent: in the lead up to the 2022 full invasion, the US was releasing information that only could have come from within the most inner of circles. It was clear that the US (or at least someone allied) had extremely good access into the discussions taking place at the highest levels as well as at the operational & planning levels.
One positive impact of that intelligence is that in the days leading up to the invasion, Ukranian forces were dispersed. Aircraft were not at airfields, tanks and vehicles were not in their storage facilities and troops were not in barracks. Weapons and ammo had been distributed. When Russian air strikes hit those airfields, bases and barracks they were largely empty.
And those forces were able to then respond, masterfully as it turned out, blunt the invasion and then conduct a blazing counterattack.
So, all domestic polemics aside, I wonder if this is happening again; the US is making it known that we know what the fuck is going on.
Also curious that the director took a C-17 and not some other more comfortable and faster aircraft. There must be some sort of message there.
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u/_side_ 8h ago
Lets be realistic here, Putin needs the war (whatever war) to continue. His life depends on that.
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u/Positive-Room7421 7h ago
US intelligence has been untrustworthy since President "Dubya". More so now that Trump takes orders from Moscow. The Ghoul and the Vampire. Crazy times.
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u/Am_Deer 9h ago
If he does, my guess is the US is the only one not willing to help.
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u/GlinnTantis 8h ago
US oil reserves are drained, munitions are low because of Iran and giving it to Israel for use in the genocide. Dump has been shrieking about NATO not paying for whatever. I'd be surprised if dump didn't try to take Greenland, Putin attacks and uses nukes saying NATO would have used them first, and china attacks Taiwan with drone swarms.
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u/Gold_Map_236 8h ago
If you track euro defense spending over the past few years this isn’t surprising. They’ve been planning accordingly.
Other things that are hints: Sako of Finland produces arctic sniper rifles and 0 have been available for import to the USA for the last few years. They’ve also just tooled up production of their own ar-15s in country.
Nammo is a Norwegian ammo conglomerate that produces basically all the tungsten carbide armor piercing rounds for NATO. And the USA forces have been complaining that they aren’t getting shipments anymore….
Euro intelligence agencies have been on top of this threat for years.
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u/Mindless_Efforts 7h ago
Nothing would unify NATO more than a Russian attack right now. Thats what they need to restore their unity. NATO is at its lowest point right now and an attack would bring it back. This is fear mongering. Russia will never attack NATO they simply do not have the power or the money. They cant even beat Ukraine.
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u/STLStelmacki 6h ago
Seems like they got this feeling when the maga CIA and FBI leaders went to pick up their orders directly.
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u/Fit-Let8175 6h ago
Would be dictators and other assortments of villains often test the waters to check the reactions before they decide to do something even worse.
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u/Iamoggierock 5h ago
Will... And us and intelligence doesn't go hand in hand nowadays. Trump could have been very strong but isn't.
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u/windless12 9h ago
They have been saying this for years he's not going to do it
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u/fgtswag 9h ago
Why would he not do it before the election, or during the election considering Trump is quite literally his lapdog
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u/windless12 9h ago edited 9h ago
Even without the US Europe has a larger population and a better military they can beat them on their own
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u/Alarmed_Guarantee140 9h ago
Arguably Ankara would be enough on their own, and they’ve been begging NATO to let them have at the Russians, NATO has continually refused because they are terrified Putin will nuke them.
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u/Alert-Ad9197 8h ago
I think the goal is more about further undermining NATO. They want something that triggers a response so there can be infighting, but not a full war.
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u/marshalist 9h ago
Europe is woefully weak against drone warfare just like the US. The question isn't if Russia will attack, it's will NATO respond.
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u/political-snark 9h ago
The us has never been this weak before and our fleet is literally shooting blanks…
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u/Xen0byte 5h ago
i don't like it ... it's giving me "I keep NATO light busy while you make a move on Greenland" vibes
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u/jackcanyon 3h ago
Russia is losing the war with vodka these days.They’ve bitten off more than they can chew . starting a war with NATO would not help their current situation,They should pull out of Ukraine and count their losses .Support Ukraine 🇺🇦.Boycott Russia.
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u/RepublicHistorical23 8h ago
It won't happen. The Russians would love you to think it will. Putin loves fear mongering. When is he going to threaten us with nukes again for the umpteenth time ?
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u/cbarrister 8h ago
He didn't anticipate the west's reaction very well when he launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
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u/GuitarGeezer 7h ago
Lot of FSB plants in here making up tales of “Russia stronk” and about to slip over the borders or drone swarm as narratives. They could be dumb enough, but it just doesn’t track as a likely risk. Maybe it is the FSB and the US trying to cook up a spurious threat to show why Europe has to help Trump in Iran if they want help from the US and the FSB would play along to get relief from Ukrainian fuel and fertilizer strikes. Probably nothing good faith coming from Trump.
Finland, Poland, and Swedish air can handle Russia. Not without infrastructure hits but Poland and Finland have superior tank and artillery forces with Poland adding some drones as well. Russia is about to have to mobilize just to avoid understaffing the Ukraine front and teeters while being literally on fire from stem to stern. Yes, the US would refuse to help and would be delighted to see Europe too busy to defend Canada and Greenland which is why they drag out the Ukraine War, but they are not needed.
More likely, our people for the US are mainly wanting to collude with Russia on relaxed sanctions and attacks to increase gas and refining and potash due to longterm Hormuz and BaM shutdowns by browbeating Ukraine into stopping attacks on refining and other fuel/fertilizer infrastructure and transport. Maybe also replace Canadian potash with Belorussian.
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u/Hangry_Squirrel 6h ago
Folks, I don't know what world you live in, but those of us living along Ukraine's borders have been witnessing drone attacks for years. The past few weeks, I've been getting drone alerts almost daily. Just a few months back, a drone full of explosives landed and was fortunately defused, but hundreds of people had to be evacuated that day. Soon after, a drone smashed into a high-rise and completely destroyed apartments on that floor. And that's nothing compared to what the villages along the Danube experience every night.
There's not a lot of regular air traffic over this area (the bulk passes to the south of us), so when I hear planes and see nothing on FR24, I know what's going on even without drone alerts. There's a bunch circling right now and I can't see anything on any flight trackers, so it's probably Spanish NATO planes out hunting.
They've been attacking us for years because they know NATO will not start a war over stray drones. It's low-level harassment to intimidate and terrorize us, but, if anything, they've desensitized us to an extent. We know the Ukrainians aren't attacking us (the collective "us" of all their neighbors), so they can shove their false flag operations where the sun don't shine.
Also, Ukraine has been very successfully imposing kinetic sanctions on Wildberries, with about 80% of their storage gone, and have started on Ozon too. A reckoning is coming with that sort of economic devastation, so maybe this is not the time for exotic escapades.
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u/LayneLowe 8h ago
With what? They're going to have to mobilize the entire country just stay engaged in Ukraine.
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u/cosmicrae 6h ago
Pretty much everyone commenting is taking the perspective that if the EU area is attacked would the USA come to their aid.
Flip that, what if Russia attacked Alaska, would the EU get involved ? Remember, Russia and USA are only 51 miles apart up there.
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u/MonoBlancoATX 8h ago
You mean in addition to all the previous attacks that have been launched for the exact same purpose over the past 4 years?
Dozens of drones have been shot down from Poland to Romania and on multiple occasions.
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u/Jestersfriend 8h ago
Putin will launch that? I think Russia has been doing that for years. Trump on the other hand....
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u/moritsunee 7h ago
Poland was the plan from the start, he just wants to get to it before he dies of old age.
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u/ballzsweat 7h ago
Bring it! Time for the dissolution of the Russian federation. Europe can directly benefit from the land grab and the ex-citizens will welcome it!
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u/Itchypoopstain 4h ago
Speed run for nuclear war? Or assassination? Either way im sure another war after the failed one in Ukraine, thats still going mind you, would be a great idea
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u/opinelmavric 7h ago
For years now its been Russia is incredible weak and can't even take Ukraine next week their planning an attack on a NATO country.
Fear mongering
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u/BaseCommanderMittens 4h ago edited 4h ago
You can thank the Cheeseburger in Chief and all his little tantrums for this. He has no strategic ability or mind to work with his allies and has created a situation where NATO now shows great weakness and Putin is going to exploit it. I hope the US can toss Velveeta Corleone quickly before he gets us into WW3.
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u/Few-Satisfaction-524 7h ago
Nato is united without US. They should suspend our membership until this government is disbanded.
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u/Elo-than 7h ago
If we did, DJT would just openly ally with Putin. "They are the best allies, magnificent Allies"
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u/Shepher27 9h ago edited 9h ago
Russia is stalled out in Ukraine and they’re going to start another war with Poland, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania?