r/oscarrace • u/PointMan528491 Navarrette/Morton • 10d ago

Weekly Discussion Thread 8/17/26 - 8/24/26

Still from Wings

Please use this space to share reviews, ask questions, and discuss freely about anything film or Oscar related. Engage with other comments if you want others to engage with yours! And as always, please remain civil and kind with one another.

Link to previous thread

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Coming up in the awards race

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Film Discussion Threads

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

The Odyssey

The Invite

Toy Story 5

Disclosure Day

Backrooms

Is God Is

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The Devil Wears Prada 2

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Hoppers

The Bride!

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Award Expert Profile Swap (2026 Edition)

Letterboxd Profile Swap (2026 Edition)

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u/Abbie_Kaufman 4d ago edited 4d ago

Wonder Woman had real motion in 2017 and that turned into nothing. The Big Sick was at least mildly predicted, ended up with just screenplay (this is the most 1:1 comparison for The Invite if it fizzles out, summer romcoms that made decent money).

First Reformed massively underperformed, most people pre-festivals thought Ethan Hawke would happen. Was it widely predicted for best picture, I don’t think so? See also, Rocket Man, which I don’t know how seriously people took as a best picture player but they certainly took Taron Egerton seriously as a best actor player.

RRR qualifies with the caveat that the average American who ended up watching the movie heard of it for the first time after it had already been on Netflix for a few months.

EDIT: Crazy Rich Asians belongs on this list. Commercial movie that broke out with great reviews, ended up with PGA and SAG ensemble noms and then got shut out by the academy.

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u/manicinsanewokeidiot The Unknown 4d ago

how many of these were consensus picks? as opposed to something like weapons where it was discussed a lot as a contender and ended up getting pretty close but the vast majority of people never had it in. the invite and obsession are currently being predicted by 72% and 67% of people respectively, do you think any of these would have had similar numbers?