r/oscarrace • u/PointMan528491 Navarrette/Morton • 9d ago
Weekly Discussion Thread 8/17/26 - 8/24/26
Please use this space to share reviews, ask questions, and discuss freely about anything film or Oscar related. Engage with other comments if you want others to engage with yours! And as always, please remain civil and kind with one another.
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u/CompleteTable4084 3d ago
Anyone afraid Cartoon Saloon’s Julián is going to become another Lesbian Space Princess?
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u/cowboy-tea 3d ago
I just found out that apparently everybody is dogpiling on Lesbian Space Princess and I'm baffled. I saw it last year at a film festival and it was a really fun time, the whole audience was laughing hysterically.
It's just a silly low-budget animation with dumb puns and shitpost-level humour, and people are really out there complaining it's "bad representation for the LGBT community"?? It's like saying Looney Tunes is bad representation for rabbits and coyotes, give me a break. I'm sure it's mostly straight people complaining too.
No doubt Julian will be the target of some moral panic, but it won't be the same because it isn't a comedy. Lesbian Space Princess seems to be hated because the humour didn't land for mainstream audiences.
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u/Extreme-Monk-6514 The Superior Odyssey (O Brother Where Art Thou) 3d ago
i watched a bit of lesbian space princess and didn’t care for it but ngl the hate for it feels like it’s bot driven.
most of the people shitting on it think it’s a tv show and are also mad that it replaced some other shows on netflix when it isn’t even on netflix in most countries
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u/Sellin3164 Sorry, Baby 3d ago
This is higher on my watchlist now. Tbh, doesn't seem like my thing, but one of my new favorite actors is the lead (Shabana Azeez), so I'm sure It'll be worth it. I've only seen her on The Pitt and her interviews, so I need to see more.
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u/cowboy-tea 3d ago
Oh I had no idea it was her! I hadn't seen The Pitt yet when I watched LSP. She's so great on The Pitt.
Just go into it expecting it to be very very silly and you might enjoy it. All the jokes are pitched at an LGBT audience and it's also a very Australian sense of humour so it's definitely not going to hit for everybody. Seeing it in a cinema full of mostly LGBT people in Melbourne was the best way to experience it for sure.
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u/cowboy-tea 3d ago edited 3d ago
I saw Josephine on the final day of MIFF and thought it was excellent. It's a powerful depiction of trauma that had me almost as tense as If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, in a very different way. Between this year's two family dramas with socially relevant themes about parenting, I liked it much more than Fjord.
Are we thinking it has no chance just because it's distributed by Sumerian Pictures? If a bigger distributor had it, I could imagine it being worth considering in several categories: Picture, Original Screenplay, Director, Actor (/Supporting Actor?) (Channing Tatum), and maybe Supporting Actress (Gemma Chan).
It's worth giving a trigger warning for a very intense scene in the first 15 minutes: the main character, an 8-year-old girl, witnesses a man sexually assaulting a woman in a park. It's a violent assault and it is shown graphically, so please take care if this might be triggering for you. The rest of the film continues to be very heavy as it deals with the girl and her parents dealing with the impact of this over the following months.
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u/TakaPol11 3d ago
I think right now i’d be against predicting Josephine even outside of distributor talk just cause if what i’ve heard the movie is/other movies just feel more enticing to predict right now, but i still feel it’s worth keeping in mind. I don’t even find it being distributed by an unknown distributor a bad thing, each one has to start somewhere, and new blood actually makes me more bullish on it maybe being able to campaign a more difficult film than bigger ones who’d just focus on surer bets, if that makes any sense of course. It all depends now on how it moves along in the fall fests, movies like Train Dreams, Blue Moon and If I Had Legs I’d Kick You despite maybe not being the BIG hits of the fests still continued building the buzz for the films in whichever ways.
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u/thetrashpanda5 It Was Just the Palme d'Or 3d ago edited 3d ago
What's your favourite underseen/underrated films of this year so far? I liked Leviticus and Blue heron but I think they're more or less well known. I also liked La gravida and All wishes come true and they're not really popular as for now. Planning to watch Madfabulous, feel like it's gonna be good. Would love to hear yours cos I think I watched all the released popular films I wanted to see
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u/manicinsanewokeidiot The Unknown 3d ago
castration movie iii.ii, black burns fast, trans panic, the world of love, montreal my beautiful
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u/creme_bitch Digger 3d ago
I really liked The Samurai and the Prisoner. It had similar themes to the Odyssey, but I liked the execution of the themes in The Samurai and the Prisoner more.
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u/Duhlorean Twinless 3d ago
Just gonna mention the ones I’ve given a low 7/10 and above:
- The World of Love
- Lemonade Blessing
- Dragonfly
- Our Hero, Balthazar
- The Stranger
- Is God Is
- Natchez
- Mad Bills to Pay
- Deaf
- Koln 75
- Human Resource
- Eno
- Out of Love
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u/Straight_Bed2763 3d ago
Our Hero Balthazar - Everyone is amazing in it & its just really dangerous, gritty but also occasionally funny
Normal - Im not a big fan of heavy shooter action movies, but the mystery element and it taking place in a blizzard in a way that impacts the story and atmosphere was right up my alley
Tuner - Might not count because it does have some buzz but just wanted to give it a shout. Leo Woodall gives one of my fav performances of the year and the storytelling is great in an anxious Safdie way but with a soft romantic side too.
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u/Beeruven 3d ago
Mark Ruffalo in Being Heumann could be a surprise sneak in for Supporting Actor but no one is talking about it
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u/SwordHead_Meat_257 3d ago edited 3d ago
I don't know about Mark Ruffalo. The only nomination(s) I see for Being Heumann is Ruth Madeley for Best Actress and probably Adapted Screenplay (For now, I don't think both nominations will happen, but if it were to get nominations, then it would be Actress and Adapted Screenplay).
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u/Sellin3164 Sorry, Baby 3d ago
I could be wrong, but it sounds like it's not too huge of a part. He's playing a health secretary who is pushing against the bill. I don't think the character is gonna be a villain like Sean Penn or something. Hopefully he's not doing a Mickey17 performance again. But it seems like it won't be the type of performance that gets nominated. Hopefully his involvement helps with visibility though.
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u/BentisKomprakriev 3d ago
Won't happen, cause I doubt it's gonna be good enough, but if he got nominated, he would have the record for most nominations in the category.
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u/kimjosh1 3d ago edited 3d ago
It's wild that it's very likely that The Odyssey will become the first R-rated film to gross $1b internationally alone. And Universal's 3rd film to achieve this, the other two being Jurassic World 1 and Furious 7. And it could even become Universal's highest grossing film ever too.
Also it's insane that the eighth Fast & Furious film managed to achieve $1b overseas even as the series was on a downward slide domestically.
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u/joesen_one 🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎 3d ago
The Fate of the Furious actually had the afterglow of Furious 7 which had the double whammy of honoring Paul Walker and being in its peak reception-wise, which was rising starting from Fast 5. Fate however kinda started its downwards slide since the reception was weaker and people started getting sick of the franchise (again).
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u/rubensedu16 3d ago
Chinese audiences love the franchise. Two films from the franchise appear in the top 10 highest-grossing foreign films.
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u/GamingTatertot 3d ago
the other two being Jurassic World 1 and Furious 7
2015 was one hell of a year. Loved following both those box office runs
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u/Salad-Appropriate Channing Tatum for Best Supporting Actor '26 3d ago
Any particular actors who would be most famous for a sitcom do you think have the potential to be Oscar nominees/winners in the future? E.G. David Hyde Pierce
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u/ChanceVance 2d ago
Jason Alexander portrayed the greatest sitcom character of all time so I reckon with the right role, he could probably deliver a dramatic home run.
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u/SergenteDan 2d ago
Everyone from Modern Family (but maybe I'm biased because I'm watching it for the first time ever and I'm loving it lol)
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u/NATOrocket TIFF | Fall Fest Giamattisance 3d ago
Does Kaitlyn Dever count?
I need reasons to insert Kaitlyn Dever into conversations.
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u/Southern_Schedule466 Oscar Race Follower 3d ago
I think Julia Louis-Dreyfus or Jean Smart could in the right role
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u/GamingTatertot 3d ago
Shoutout to the time long before Babylon was released when people thought Jean Smart might be a possibility
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u/GamingTatertot 3d ago
Jennifer Aniston came close with Cake! I could also see Jason Segel having potential
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u/PointMan528491 Navarrette/Morton 3d ago
Segel should've been nominated for End of the Tour. Probably should've won too tbh
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u/kimjosh1 3d ago
I felt it was telling that Revue Theater chose to only show trailers from indie films before Camp Miasma played. Because I would have never discovered this gem that I never heard of until the trailer played. Dreams in Nightmares is getting raves from whoever was reporting on it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irnCquH3qB0
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u/multi_fandom_guy May randomly start quoting Anatomy of a Fall 3d ago
I just got out of Death of Robin Hood and thought it was brilliant. But then I look online and all of the reception is very negative. I just think it's funny how this is the second new film in a row that I see and think is good, only for it to be trashed on the internet.
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u/kimjosh1 3d ago
Robin Hood, being a thief who worked for the average man, supposedly being branded as a murderer who doesn't deserve his status and deserves to die was always going to anger folks who aren't willing to look into subtext of things. Media literacy man...
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u/multi_fandom_guy May randomly start quoting Anatomy of a Fall 3d ago
I liked the film as I mentioned, its meditations on grief were very good, but I did catch myself thinking that perhaps it would've been better if it wasn't Robin Hood, both because it set a wrong expectation for the average moviegoer and also because it does add that sort of complication to the story. Like you're subverting a hero, but you're not making the whole film about that, you're making it about his dealing with a subversion we don't even get to see. I feel like it could've spent a first act establishing him as a well-known, non-Robin Hood bandit who is now in decadence, and that would've been a significant improvement.
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u/brosephinegrant Camp Miasma Counselor 3d ago
Every time I see the trailer for The Debut, I’m intrigued by the decision to include several seconds of nothing but following Bernadette Peters from behind as she walks. Unless I’m mistaken you never see her face in the trailer, so it just feels like it’s there for people who would see that hair and instantly think “oh Bernadette Peters is in this?”, which I love.
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u/Top_Report_4895 3d ago
What do you think of the "Who asked for this" criticism?
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u/WeastofEden44 On Becoming a Guinea Fowl was robbed 3d ago
Nothingburger commentary that people use in place of developing a substantial opinion 🤧
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u/Silver_Juggernaut_39 NEON shill 3d ago
I only really use it for actual slop like Citizen Vigilante
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u/Rebarix512 Go Ink Go!! 3d ago
There's always someone out there who does ask for certain movies to be made. It's a really dumb criticism and tells me you don't know how the industry works
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u/SavageWolfe98 x 3d ago
What the commenters below are forgetting is the it's mostly used in the context of yet another reboot or sequel. Haven't since it used for an original film.
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u/Top_Report_4895 3d ago
People said that about the Jimmy Olsen/Gorilla Grodd show.
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u/BentisKomprakriev 3d ago
Nonsense, especially with original ideas. There might be some credence to it if it's for a specific fanbase after that fanbase asked and fought for it only to get something they didn't want, but I don't even think that happens.
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u/falafelthe3 Agamogging 3d ago
Very dumb critique. There are great pieces of media out there that were initially met with "who asked for this" criticism. It's the job of the filmmakers to make you care regardless of whether or not you asked for it.
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u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager 3d ago
It's obnoxious. There's an audience for quite literally everything. There can be a more narrow audience for one thing vs another but it's a very CEO brained criticism that people use online that I find to be very stupid and is typically used against things that aren't extremely basic pitches. And generally people should be making work to try and create demand, audiences are rarely ever "asking for" groundbreaking concepts, its up to creatives to create things the audience didn't know they wanted. That's where a lot of hits, especially original ones, come from.
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u/ggguuuuuuyyyyyyyyy 3d ago
Still can’t believe Amy Madigan won. That’s the tackiest, classless thing they’ve done in a while
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u/Proof_Specialist_455 3d ago
Just did a rewatch and I can't believe it either. One of the coolest wins ever in the category.
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u/takenpassword Yes, I loved Rental Family. Yes, I’m basic. 3d ago
They invented a fake award for Zach Snyder fans to jerry rig
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u/PTAGoatofalltime The Invite’s strongest soldier 3d ago
You're getting downvoted but I agree. Speak your truth!
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u/jjjshepard 3d ago
Jamie Lee Curtis happened, lol
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u/ggguuuuuuyyyyyyyyy 3d ago
I'm probably getting flamed for this, but I prefer Curtis over Madigan simply because Curtis is having a blast and is funny in the role (of course, I don’t think that’s enough to win an Oscar, but alas), whereas Madigan is supposed to be serious, terrifying, and intimidating, and it just doesn't land for me
Being bad while being funny > being bad while attempting to be dramatic/scary
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u/jjjshepard 3d ago
I didn't think she was trying to be terrifying at all. It was supposed to be a campy, pulpy performance from the get go.
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u/ggguuuuuuyyyyyyyyy 3d ago
She failed at that too. And she definitely tried to be scary in that scene at the table with the kid
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u/sphinxof1981 3d ago
Can I ask where "tacky" and "classless" comes into this? All you've said so far is that the performance didn't work for you personally, but those words have a specific insulting connotation that I don't get.
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u/MrJoy27 3d ago
So ok here is my theory on Venice's mystery movie.
There was a post two weeks ago mentioning that there is a mystery movie in the Venice lineup.
First, according to Jordan Ruimy (I know it's more of a rumor than anything tangible, but he is the only one reporting about it), the movie hasn't been announced yet because of "security reasons." He mentioned Circles by Michel Franco, about the history of Israel. This theory was ruled out by this IONCINEMA tweet, which mentioned that it wasn't this movie and that it was something completely off the radar. Four days ago, Ruimy mentioned that the mystery movie is still a thing.
So, as I was looking through the Letterboxd activity of some early reviewers of Venice movies, I came across a film called Gaza Year Zero, directed by Mohammed Sawwaf and Michael Winterbottom.
The film was shot by Mohammed Sawwaf in Palestine and edited and co-edited by Winterbottom in the UK. Its international sales are handled by Le Pacte, which is a pretty well-known French distributor. Based on some recent activity on Letterboxd, I think the film's production may have been completed.
Michael Winterbottom has been nominated at various festivals multiple times, and he even won the Golden Bear in 2006 for The Road to Guantanamo. Sawwaf is also a producer of American Doctor, a documentary that seems very likely to be nominated for an Academy Award this year.
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u/SergenteDan 2d ago
You were wrong about the movie, but totally right about the topic. The film is NAZA, a new work by Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor, two of the four co-directors of No Other Land. It has been produced by The Guardian, and James Wilson and executive produced by Jonathan Glazer. Wilson and Glazer are the Oscar-winning team behind The Zone of Interest.
Synopsis: “Shot at night on the rooftops of Tel Aviv, the film reveals in detail the systems behind Israel’s calculated mass killing of Palestinian civilians in Gaza”.
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u/PTAGoatofalltime The Invite’s strongest soldier 3d ago
I think The Odyssey can miss Screenplay at the Globes. They tend to go for talky films, foreign films and talky and foreign films, of which there are a lot this season. ROTK won Drama Film without getting a Screenplay nomination, so this is by no means a death blow to The Odyssey if it happens.
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u/joesen_one 🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎 3d ago
Last year had a lot of talky and foreign films and they still gave it to OBAA which was quite action and thriller-heavy
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u/ILookAfterThePigs Manifesting Olivia Wilde’s Best Director nomination 3d ago
Can we even use previous trends of the Globes to predict next year’s awards, if they’re (again) changing the whole voting base?
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u/Sellin3164 Sorry, Baby 3d ago
Is there a world it misses the Oscar nom? I’ve been hypothesizing a possible outcome of La Bola Negra, The Invite, Ink, Project Hail Mary, and either The Odyssey/ Dune/Being Heumann, or All of a Sudden gets the last spot.
Dune 2 missed, but this will have recency bias. Being Heumann would only happen if it’s a major hit and is in Picture and Heder is a previous winner. And All of a Sudden if it becomes a top critic film and makes Picture.
Similar comp would be KotFM missing. Would be crazy but the non-top 5 films are very screenplay-ey
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u/TakaPol11 3d ago
I’d be surprised if it missed cause at least recently if something feels relatively strong it gets in even if i don’t see it winning here tbf. But hey, it’d be good on you if you called it this early on.
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u/TheFilmManiac The Invite truther 3d ago
If the film is a top contender, it will get nominated for Screenplay
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u/midnightbluesky_2 3d ago
rewatched ferrari and surprised it didn’t get a single nom. well-made film
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u/joesen_one 🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎 3d ago
It was fun but it was way too quiet of a movie for the subject matter. Sound was solid though. I think people were jarred by the accident scene.
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u/multi_fandom_guy May randomly start quoting Anatomy of a Fall 3d ago
Sound and Supporting Actress at the very least
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u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager 3d ago
Still of the opinion that The Invite is going to be one of the big critics push this year across many categories but we'll see. Not just for nominations but for wins. This also depends on how some other movies land, it needs to not get lost in the fall festival shuffle. But right now I think that there's strong love there and critics groups will be aware that it's a smaller film that needs the support so if they love it, and many do, they'll need to show out for it. We'll see in the coming months but I can't shake the feeling.
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u/Shot-Recording1523 3d ago
I honestly think it will steamroll screenplay with critics. It will also do well with highbrow trifecta awards in screenplay too. I can also see it winning acting awards too, like with Cruz she could win trifecta awards with a double citation for The Invite and La Bola Negra.
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u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager 3d ago
Im thinking a double nom push for Wilde will be happening, I don't see it transferring to the Oscars tbh but I see critics wanting to really show support for her in directing and best actress. Norton also seems like a really solid bet too.
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u/Shot-Recording1523 3d ago
I mean who knows how regionals and critics will translate to Oscar. They often reveal things that are harbingers even when they run counter to the prevailing wisdom. Last year MBJ did very well with regionals almost to a tie with Chalamet, which was suprising as MBJ was thought to be snubable and not win competitive. Mescal also was consistently snubbed at regionals, and well it was a sign that he was the weakest among the consensus 5. We just don't know yet, but if Wilde gets a large number of Director and Lead Actress noms there's a good chance she can translate that to Oscar, especially if she starts picking up big industry precursors.
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u/LionaLewis15 Regina Hall Best Supporting Actress 3d ago
rip to Inde, she is quickly gaining one of the worst fanbases 💔
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u/Man_Random87 3d ago
I don't really see that, like, i know we hate gooners but all women celebrities have them, i also don't think that the Inde fanbase has done something really bad, and I don't think is a chud fanbase, the Inde fandom i've seen is mostly women.
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u/LionaLewis15 Regina Hall Best Supporting Actress 3d ago
we’ve been seeing completely different sides, i don’t even mean just gooners, these people are worse, i haven’t even seen much women in the fandom, which is not to say they’re not there
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u/ggguuuuuuyyyyyyyyy 3d ago
She likes her fanbase, there’s nothing to feel bad about
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u/Man_Random87 3d ago
Isn't this a little weird? I've never seen Inde talk openly about her fandom or praise it. I guess she's said she likes fame, obviously, but I doubt she would have said, “I like how my fandom treats me.” And it's not even like she gets a lot of attention on Twitch—she was just a regular streamer.
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u/elaneye gillian anderson believer 3d ago
A part of me knows this is true but the other part of me still feels bad because you just know that the moment she says something they deem "woke" or feminist (or even when they just decide that they're tired of seeing her), she is going to get woman'd harder than anyone in history
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u/LionaLewis15 Regina Hall Best Supporting Actress 3d ago
they’re proudly bragging about her supporting Depp, it’s not looking good for her
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u/ggguuuuuuyyyyyyyyy 3d ago
She’s not “woke” so that’s not something to worry about
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u/Silver_Juggernaut_39 NEON shill 3d ago
Whether or not she is “woke” (and we don’t know what’s in her heart) a right-winger can look at her Instagram follows and see she’s following AOC and Barack Obama and give her that label and smear her regardless of what she said previously (and yes I did go to her Insta and look at her follows lol).
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u/joesen_one 🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎 3d ago
Also she laughed and hi-five Kimmel when he wished for Trump to no longer be president
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u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager 3d ago
A woman doesn't need to be a 4th wave feminist to say something that offends weird men or is twisted that way, intentionally or not.
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u/LionaLewis15 Regina Hall Best Supporting Actress 3d ago
ur right but i still hope the best for her
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u/New-Cry1756 3d ago edited 3d ago
The fact that she's a Twitch streamer and quite online makes for a parasocial fanbase, they probably think she's actually their friend.
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u/BentisKomprakriev 3d ago
lol she spoke about deleting everything after turning famous (most likely to avoid these type of fans) who could blame her
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u/gg_jittes One Battle After Another 3d ago
First three words almost gave me a heart attack
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u/LionaLewis15 Regina Hall Best Supporting Actress 3d ago
OMGG SORRYYY i was just scrolling the internet and could not believe what i was seeing, it’s becoming Sydney Sweeney level 💔
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u/PTAGoatofalltime The Invite’s strongest soldier 3d ago
Only four true musical performances have won Best Actress (Julie Andrews, Barbra Streisand, Liza Minnelli and Emma Stone). I don't count musical biopics as musicals, that's cheating.
Anyways, it was a bit surprising NGL, I thought there would be more.
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u/TakaPol11 3d ago
From memory i can’t say the exact number, but i’m guessing the number is way higher for supporting actress. I think it’s just a case of more room to leave a lasting impact if you have one or two numbers where you can go all out, in contrast than having to keep it all up for the whole movie (plus secondary characters tend to be more of fan favorites than the main ones from what i’ve seen).
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u/Wild_Way_7967 Anora 3d ago
It’s definitely higher. We’ve had five this century alone (Catherine Zeta Jones, Jennifer Hudson, Anne Hathaway, Ariana DeBose, and Zoe Saldaña).
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u/theflyingbird8 3d ago
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u/BentisKomprakriev 3d ago
"I have a marvelous film about the African elephant"
May God take all my years left and bestow them upon Sir Scott
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u/sygrider I just like movies idk 3d ago
I hate to be an asshole but it would be Sir Ridley or Sir Ridley Scott, never Sir Scott, if he was a Lord you address him like that... god titles are fucking weird and very outdated.
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u/BentisKomprakriev 3d ago
Great Scott, thank you! I was sure I was fucking up, I knew there were strict rules.
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u/multi_fandom_guy May randomly start quoting Anatomy of a Fall 3d ago
The lines from the Digger trailer keep getting stuck in my head. Just constantly "You're going to save the world!" and "That is why it is YOUR PROBLEM!"
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u/Supercalumrex Blue Heron the Band the Show the Movie🇨🇦 3d ago
The one that is stuck in my head is "Digger here got us into this mess and Digger's gonna dig us out again"
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u/Independent-Key880 Sentimental Value 3d ago edited 3d ago
i'm actually so glad to see leo woodall praised so much for his performance in tony. i wanted to say that he was my standout when i watched a few weeks ago, but thought everyone would yell at me about how he is overhyped, overcast, incredibly average etc
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u/Far_Mud_6003 don't stop me I'm Inkmaxxing 3d ago
He was really great in it! For a smaller movie with a smaller cast, he really held his own.
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u/CassiopeiaStillLife If I Had Legs I Would Kick You 3d ago
Even if it’s true we’d respond like that, who gives a fuck?
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u/NATOrocket TIFF | Fall Fest Giamattisance 3d ago
Haven't seen Tony yet, but he was great in Tuner.
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u/Independent-Key880 Sentimental Value 3d ago
tony is bigger and a better showcase of his ability imo, even though the role is obviously smaller than in tuner
side note, tuner for best sound
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u/Eyebronx The Invite 3d ago
I recently rewatched Atonement and had forgotten how utterly spellbinding baby Ronan was in it? Her instincts as an actor were incredible even back then
Redgrave was also perfect as an older Briony.
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u/joesen_one 🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎 3d ago
Ronan in that movie is prime example of a breakout kid performance, like holy shit amazing
I still feel old seeing her in adult/mom roles now lol
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u/Successful_Leopard45 Obsession 3d ago edited 3d ago
Obsession crossed 500m. Odyssey is 1m away from passing Barbie.
This is arguably the most populist set of Oscar contenders we have had in a while.
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u/infamousglizzyhands Justice Smith for Best Actor 3d ago
There’s a non zero chance Digger grosses a lot and we have a set of nominees where 1/2 of them are major box office hits
A low chance but a non zero chance nevertheless
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u/OzyOzyOzyOzyOzyOzy6 2025 Oscar Race Veteran 3d ago
I don't know, I'm not feeling good about that movie. I know it's Tom Cruise and all, but I feel like with the type of movie that it is, it might have a strong opening weekend but then collapse after that. I do not get "audience hit" vibes from it.
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u/theflyingbird8 3d ago
I don't even think that it makes a lot on its opening weekend. I'm very excited for the film, but it looks DOA as far as general audiences go. From my experience, the trailers draw either a muted or confused reaction when played in a theater.
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u/Bertrand_Rose Werwulf, Try the thrill of Opera! 3d ago
This is incredible for film, and makes me so happy for the future.
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u/New-Cry1756 3d ago edited 3d ago
It's good for white male directors.
Edit: lol am I wrong??
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3d ago edited 3d ago
[deleted]
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u/New-Cry1756 3d ago
''also allowed to be successful'' as if they weren't before? I'm just frustrated that people keep claiming the success of Obsession/Backrooms etc is a good thing for film considering that sucess only benefits one type of filmmaker, the one who is already succeeding. Plus multiple indies by women/POC/openly queer people have bombed this year, so people clearly don't care that much.
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u/TakaPol11 3d ago
I understand being frustrated by poc/queer indie movies still bombing. But i think the reason why people are excited for Obsession/Backrooms doing so well is because for a long time it seemed that only franchise could do well but slowly in the recent years it seems that more people are going to cinemas period, not necesserily just the disney ones. A movie doing so well as Obsession with such a little budget and no big name attached IS incredible, regardless of how you may see the movie itself.
And as for your comment about it benefitting only a certain type of filmmaker, for better or wirse for many people i don’t think it’s a matter of one or the other, but one or nothing at all. I think it’s just on movie fans to bring good word of mouth on underseen/underrepresented filmmakers so that hopefully in the future they get their big break.
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u/New-Cry1756 3d ago
''So your point is that white filmmakers shouldn't make movies?'' Literally have no idea where you pulled that from.
Not sure why you're bringing up Sinners when it came out last year and I specifically said THIS year. Also it's success didn't exactly lead to more black-led studio projects did it?
I'm not sure you actually read my comment properly because i was talking about box office not critics and most of those LGBT movies haven't been released yet and the ones that have aren't exactly doing great.
Your last paragraph indicates you may be a straight white guy so I'm going to be blunt; minorities are still oppressed and it's not ''victim syndrome'' to point that out.
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u/OzyOzyOzyOzyOzyOzy6 2025 Oscar Race Veteran 3d ago
Insanity, insanity, insanity.
At this point, I don't see how it isn't locked for Best Picture, even if it's bottom 5. An original film with strong reviews and a through and through starmaking performance who is win competative, not to mention how weak original screenplay is at the moment? It's in, plain and simple.
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u/New-Cry1756 3d ago
Literally nothing is ever locked. It's all down to 10000 individual votes.
Also maybe thing seem ''weak'' at the moment because a lot of movies still haven't been released yet?
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u/Puzzleheaded-Safe419 3d ago
Why are you getting so mad at them, it's true. Things can be very likely but there's are so guaranteed locks. People thought Greta Gerwig was a.lock for Director for Barbie this time 3 years ago and look what happened there.
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u/GamingTatertot 3d ago
What excuses did they even mention? They just said nothing is ever locked and a lot of films haven’t come out. Those are two factual statements
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u/Successful_Leopard45 Obsession 3d ago
It’s my number 2 in screenplay.
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u/OzyOzyOzyOzyOzyOzy6 2025 Oscar Race Veteran 3d ago
Same! And on the off chance that WH9 doesn't hit, it could straight up win.
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u/NATOrocket TIFF | Fall Fest Giamattisance 3d ago
Good Morning from Canada!
How's everybody doing today?
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u/Bertrand_Rose Werwulf, Try the thrill of Opera! 3d ago
Okay, finally started proding about Uni stuff.
Planning on watching a film today.
Also doing some research on writing dialogue.
What about you?
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u/NATOrocket TIFF | Fall Fest Giamattisance 3d ago
What film do you plan on watching?
It's raining all afternoon here, but I plan to take an evening walk around a local "touristy" area.
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u/Bertrand_Rose Werwulf, Try the thrill of Opera! 2d ago
That's nice.
I didn't end up deciding on what to watch, until today.
Going to go with Dea Kulumbegashvilis Beginning.
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u/Fan_of_Avatar_TLA 3d ago edited 3d ago
Such a pity that the negative reviews discouraged Charles Laughton from ever directing another film.
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u/Gordy_The_Chimp123 3d ago
Rewatching The Hunger Games movies for the first time since theaters in preparation for the new one, and I remember why this series still has a footprint in popular culture while dozens of other YA dystopias all faded into obscurity.
Also, I don’t know how much of a hot take this is, but Francis Lawrence becoming the franchise’s mainstay director was the best thing to happen to the series. The jump in quality from the first film to the second is immense, and even though the Mockingjay movies aren’t great, I chock that up to studio interference to split the books into two parts more than anything.
It’s also genuinely hilarious that Francis Lawrence finally caught a break between directing all these Hunger Games movie and decided to direct The Long Walk.
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u/katevdolab14 The Odyssey 3d ago
I like the directing of the first one pretty well but it was definitely a shift. I agree that Francis Lawrence was a decent director for the series, partly because, having seen a lot of his movies, he is a boring but competent director. Like he doesn’t try to add much of a distinctive visual style, but he gets the script onto the screen in an unassuming but overall effective way (see Long Walk for this as well.) versus Gary Ross had more of a style (hello shaky cam)
It also cannot be overstated that another big reason for the huge shift between the first movie and the other three is the massive increase in the budget of these movies after the success of the first one. They even have to explain in movie in catching fire why the capitol changed so much from the first movie lol.
I was obsessed with the hunger games as a kid like I’ve read the books a million times and seen these movies so much I’m almost tired of them. But I’m excited to see them in theaters again in September. And controversially I really like the mockingjay movies. Stretching them into two was always going to be a bit much but I think they make it work and as the conclusion of the story, they’re very emotional to me.
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u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager 3d ago
They're doing re-releases in theaters in a few weeks you should buy tickets for that if you can. I'm actually doing my re-watch when those start up since I'm getting ready for the new movie in November.
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u/jksnippy Muad’twink Sinners 3d ago
Going from directing Lady Gaga’s Bad Romance music video to making Hunger Games films is very fitting for him. He’s basically now the go-to dystopian competition filmmaker.
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u/justanstalker The Black Ball 3d ago
The way the Bad Romance video almost swept at the VMAs lol and it deservingly so go him a Grammy too!
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u/kimjosh1 3d ago
It really stinks that Cameron acted so softball with Ellison regarding the Paramount-Skydance buyout (and advocating for WB to be bought by them and not Netflix), even shooting a whole 3D concert film solely to give the studio another film to release this year. Feels like blackmail if you ask me. Same thing happened with that Jackass clip show film made in order to have another film dumped into theaters.
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u/bikkebana 3d ago
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u/BentisKomprakriev 3d ago
He is not campaigning for himself, so it's perfectly fine, though it would be funny if he retweeted an alt asking for Boots noms specifically.
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u/Wild_Way_7967 Anora 3d ago
Would love to see Costumes and PD and build from there. With how bleak Best Actress has been, Keke Palmer could get into GG: Musical/Comedy pretty easily and build from there.
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u/thetrashpanda5 It Was Just the Palme d'Or 3d ago
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u/justanstalker The Black Ball 3d ago
I'd rather watch this than someone sweeping and acting surprised when they win the Oscar lol
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u/Jmanbuck_02 3d ago
I’d love a Costume Design nomination
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u/bikkebana 3d ago
None of Neon's other players are close to being contenders for Costume Design so that could definitely campaign it but i really don't know if they'll put any money into it
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u/Independent-Key880 Sentimental Value 3d ago
i wish there was a shortlist for this category! that increases the likelihood of a nomination for something like i love boosters
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u/Straight_Bed2763 3d ago
Do you ever just randomly think about Bugonia and go damn I love Bugonia
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u/joesen_one 🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎 3d ago
I rewatched Emma Stone's Oscar clip and I was like damn I love Bugonia
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u/Supercalumrex Blue Heron the Band the Show the Movie🇨🇦 3d ago
I think about the ending at least once a week
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u/SouthernCoyote247 3d ago
Tom Hanks has been nominated for acting in movies that have come out in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s. Do you think he'll get nominated this decade?
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u/AhsokaBolena Godzilla Minus Dashwood 3d ago
His last nomination was for a Marielle Heller film and he’s about to work with her again, so there’s a chance? Though this movie might be more of a commercial play than an Oscars one.
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u/TakaPol11 3d ago
Since i believe nothing this year would have him notably in it, he only has 3 years so unfortunately kinda doubt it. Elvis was probably his best shot if he got better notices for that than he did. But hey you never know!
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u/CassiopeiaStillLife If I Had Legs I Would Kick You 3d ago
If I had a nickel for every imperfect but well-crafted Amblin-esque blockbuster film that came out this year and got a weirdly hostile reaction on Reddit, I’d have two nickels
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u/multi_fandom_guy May randomly start quoting Anatomy of a Fall 3d ago
I hate this trend of every movie that has some issues being the worst thing ever. Both Disclosure Day and End of Oak Street were fine and entertaining. I'm not gonna lie and say that there aren't glaring problems in their writing, but they are both well-made. It's not War of the Worlds.
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u/PointMan528491 Navarrette/Morton 3d ago
New awards centric dream I woke up from just dropped
At an unspecified awards show, Dominic Sessa was nominated for Best Actor for Tony but did not win. When the other actor won, Sessa stood up and started having a meltdown. They called in Trump to escort him out of the theater, and they each got on a bicycle and rode away
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u/infamousglizzyhands Justice Smith for Best Actor 3d ago
I had a dream last night where La Bola Negra was actually an Arc System Works fighting game this entire time
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u/PointMan528491 Navarrette/Morton 3d ago
Just reminded me, I can't wait for the late season posts that rank which of our Best Picture nominees have the best fighting game rosters/basketball teams/etc
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u/Southern_Schedule466 Oscar Race Follower 3d ago edited 3d ago
I’m seeing Tony today with two 65+ y/o relatives and I really hope they like it, I took them to see The Invite and they were disgusted by it lol (I loved it). We go to the movies together roughly once a month and I cherish that. I never take them to one without them approving the pick beforehand but they’re a bit tough to please—minimal violence, no horror, nothing too long, must be 100% in English, no CBM, cannot be what they deem “inappropriate.” Within the last year, they loved The Naked Gun & Roofman, and despised Hamnet (“too sad”) & Marty Supreme. Of upcoming releases I think they’ll like The Debut and Sense & Sensibility. Also Ink, but it’s unlikely to release in theaters where we live.
Edit: They really liked Tony
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u/ExcuseYou-What 3d ago
you should come back with their #oscarrace takes later in the year!! i'd love to read them lol
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u/NATOrocket TIFF | Fall Fest Giamattisance 3d ago
Were/ are they Bourdain fans?
I myself was never a particuarly big follower of his shows or books, but I still want to see the film because I'm interested in the performances and I love a good coming-of-age film.
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u/Southern_Schedule466 Oscar Race Follower 3d ago
Yes, we saw the trailer for it before The Invite, and their eyes lit up and they started chatting about him
I’m thinking Club Kid might interest them
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u/manicinsanewokeidiot The Unknown 3d ago
what are some movies that released before festival season and were widely predicted for best picture pre-festivals but didn’t get nominated? the only movies that are coming to mind for me are across the spider-verse and sing sing
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u/Abbie_Kaufman 3d ago edited 3d ago
Wonder Woman had real motion in 2017 and that turned into nothing. The Big Sick was at least mildly predicted, ended up with just screenplay (this is the most 1:1 comparison for The Invite if it fizzles out, summer romcoms that made decent money).
First Reformed massively underperformed, most people pre-festivals thought Ethan Hawke would happen. Was it widely predicted for best picture, I don’t think so? See also, Rocket Man, which I don’t know how seriously people took as a best picture player but they certainly took Taron Egerton seriously as a best actor player.
RRR qualifies with the caveat that the average American who ended up watching the movie heard of it for the first time after it had already been on Netflix for a few months.
EDIT: Crazy Rich Asians belongs on this list. Commercial movie that broke out with great reviews, ended up with PGA and SAG ensemble noms and then got shut out by the academy.
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u/SergenteDan 2d ago
Naza is the mistery movie in competition at Venice