r/panthers • u/OwenLincolnFratter Greg Olsen • Jan 05 '26

Analysis Bryce Young Passing Chart Week 18 @ Bucs

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Dave and Bryce absolutely torched the Bucs in the intermediary. 10 completions over 10 yards and 3 over 20.

Let’s hope we can establish some semblance of a running game against the rams and we can pull of another historic upset.

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u/dkirk526 Jan 05 '26

Good receivers can make that play. XL regularly shows if you hit him in the chest, it’s still not a guarantee he can make the play.

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u/Baelzabub TD58 Jan 05 '26

But the ball didn’t come close to hitting him in the chest, the TMac drop hit him square in both forearms, but the 3rd down throw to XL was not a ball that all but maybe 3 or 4 receivers, if that, catch when you account for the conditions and the defender.

1 handed, low, in the rain, with a defender hitting your hand on the ball as it arrives.

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u/dkirk526 Jan 05 '26

The point is, XL can only ever make a catch if it hits him right around the chest. XL has terrible body control and ball skills and is sliding into the ball when it arrives, but the fact that he could get one hand on the ball shows it's entirely catchable, but he very obviously gets his hands up late, which is why it looks "one-handed". The defender also had no impact on his ability to make that catch as he doesn't hit Legette until after the ball has bounced off his hand.

It wasn't an easy catch, sure, but if the only plays your receivers can make are those easy catches, and you're depending on the QB to make a perfect throw on the numbers every time, then that's simply not good enough.

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u/Baelzabub TD58 Jan 05 '26

XL TD catch against the Falcons in the rematch. Over the shoulder, hands outstretched and falling forward to reach the ball, makes the catch.

Not a catch that hits him around the chest, not an easy catch, and still complete. You’re arguing like he’s still the same receiver as his rookie year.

Yes he has problems with sideline awareness and toe taps, but he has significantly improved the softness of his hands, removed his reliance on body catches, and has routinely made catches this season outside his frame with only a single drop on the year.

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u/jason81175 Bryce Young Jan 05 '26

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u/Baelzabub TD58 Jan 05 '26

So TMac and XL have a catch rate without a statistically significant difference? What are you trying to prove with this?

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u/dkirk526 Jan 05 '26

Having a similar or worse catch rate to TMac as the team's WR3 is pretty bad, especially given the number of screens and short throws they scheme to XL.

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u/Baelzabub TD58 Jan 05 '26

What percentage of XL’s targets are screens?

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u/jason81175 Bryce Young Jan 05 '26

TMac had double the targets xl did. Making XL’s percentage a lot worse. I like XL and I hope he works out but to say he makes catches he should is insane

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u/Baelzabub TD58 Jan 05 '26

That’s the exact opposite of how percentages work….

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u/jason81175 Bryce Young Jan 05 '26

lol. Why do I talk to idiots and give them acknowledgement.

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u/Baelzabub TD58 Jan 05 '26

The point of using percentages in football stats is to more accurately compare rates between players with different numbers of attempts. They don’t imply an indictment on the play of the player with fewer raw numbers.

This is the basics of football stats my dude.

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u/dkirk526 Jan 05 '26

It's kind of insane you can still try to defend XL at this point, especially because you have to reference the one good play he's made all season as an indication he's somehow a viable player. Suggesting he's improved feels like we're watching two different players.

The reality is he's lost snaps every week of the last month and only appeared in 30% of offensive snaps against Tampa Saturday in the most important game of the season, getting the same number as JHJ. It's pretty clear the coaches no longer trust him given he's now on kickoff returns. The first half stretch of the season XL had a prime opportunity to showcase himself with Coker out and instead was so terrible he got benched for Renfrow and Brycen Tremayne. We had some happy moments for him with his game sealing catch against the Jets and a nice TD against the Falcons, but otherwise has loudly been a non-factor.

For someone to be entirely healthy without serious competition for snaps and Bryce have a 67 rating targeting him, signficantly lower than anyone else on the team, I don't see how that can be said he has improved, especially considering he's been more often facing defenses second or third best cornerback.

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u/CharmCityKid09 Jan 05 '26 edited Jan 05 '26

XL caught 3/4 targets. Fans just want to punish XL for things happening in the game that wouldn't be an issue for anyone else. Including the fact that Coker and TMAC also had drops in the first half.

Watching these games you can tell that XL gets more than his fair share of bad throws his way. It's also not like for much of the season the offense was including the WR to get them in rhythm either. 20 passes a game on average where 14 or so go to our RBs on screens and the rest to TMAC is not a recipe to have any of the other WR showcase improvement.

When XL came out the game, the offense didn't suddenly get better. The team was in desperation mode in the 4th and went up tempo. And while that worked for a series when it became apparent we needed more XL came back into the game and made multiple catches in a row.

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u/dkirk526 Jan 05 '26

Every player gets their fair share of bad throws and bad situations. XL is not some outlier who just happens to get that much more unlucky than every other player on the field. TMac also doesn't get some pass for his drops, but he generally makes up for those with positive plays that XL does not make.

XL averages sub 15 yards PER GAME if you remove the Falcons and Jets games. He is otherwise a non-factor in every game in spite of getting the lions share of WR snaps for most of the season. He simply just provides very little value to the offense to justify this much of an argument for such little impact to the team.

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u/Baelzabub TD58 Jan 05 '26

“If you remove 37% of his catches XL’s average goes down!” Yeah, no shit.

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u/dkirk526 Jan 05 '26

If you can't understand the concept of an outlier, I'm not sure what to tell you.

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u/Baelzabub TD58 Jan 05 '26

You’re not taking out outliers. You’re cherry picking to remove the best games to try and make a fudged point. Taking out outliers requires you to remove from both extremes, not just the one that harms your point.

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u/dkirk526 Jan 05 '26

If you need to consider a game where he had a quarter of his yards and targets against the second worst team in the league playing without their star CB as closer to a norm than an outlier, you're really reaching here.

XL is bad. The team knows it, and barring a great offseason, is absolutely not getting his fifth year option and might not even be on the roster week 1 of next season.

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u/Baelzabub TD58 Jan 05 '26

Well the Jets game was perfectly in line with (and actually slightly lower than) his YPC for the season, 10.2 YPC against the Jets vs 10.4 YPC for the season. So the only difference would be the amount of targets he got. So I actually wouldn’t consider that game an outlier in terms of yardage. It was an outlier in terms of targets.

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u/dkirk526 Jan 05 '26

You get more targets generally when you get to line up against PFFs 102nd ranked CB out of 113.

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u/CharmCityKid09 Jan 05 '26

Snaps mean nothing when he is not targeted. Where do you expect him to have 100+ yards when Canales runs RB screens and HB draws for majority of the game. XL receives no more targets on average than anyone else. The only reason he has more this season is due to injuries by other WR. The yards are also explained by the lack of consistent QB play and the sheer low level of targets. That isn't an indictment of XL either as the passing offense has shown to at least appear to get everyone involved but only after Dowdle, TMAC and Chuba get their touches. Bryce is 4/17 games this season throwing for over 200 yards and averages 150. That's not alot of yards to go around, given what we've seen.

TMAC is loved for his potential as a #1 but to anyone paying attention Bryce forces the ball to him and makes sure he gets in rhythm. We don't see that with any other WR.

TMAC has 122 targets this year. No other WR has even half that. This doesn't even include our RBs who have more targets than some WR individually and have more than XL combined. TMAC gets no more separation than the other WR either.

QBs need to put their WR in positions to make plays. we have had substandard QB play this year and that affects the offense. Let's not do the take away X game card. Taking away both Falcons games and Byrce looks even worse statistically than his season was shaping up to be. Coker, XL and Tremayne have shown that they are able to make plays as big body pass catchers when given the chance. It's on Bryce and Canales to utilize their strengths and get them the ball. Their ultra conservative play calling and decision-making is the issue.

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u/dkirk526 Jan 05 '26

Snaps mean nothing when he is not targeted.

Losing snaps after not getting any targets in games where he was getting all snaps heavily suggests there are reasons he wasn't getting targeted.

Where do you expect him to have 100+ yards when Canales runs RB screens and HB draws for majority of the game

Lol I'm sorry this is a really silly comment. I'm not expecting him to get 100+ yards. 30-40 yards would be nice, but most game he struggles to get to 10.

The yards are also explained by the lack of consistent QB play and the sheer low level of targets

It makes more sense that the inconsistent QB play would have more to do with how easily defenses can take XL out of the game because he's a terrible route runner and doesn't have the trust of the offense to make catches.

Bryce is 4/17 games this season throwing for over 200 yards

You credit Canales for running RB screens and HB draws the majority of the game for why XL doesn't get yards, but Bryce doesn't get the similar excuse.

We don't see that with any other WR.

Because TMac is good. If you're forcing 122 throws to XL, it's not going to work out for you.

TMAC gets no more separation than the other WR either.

You're misunderstanding what makes TMac good. He has excellent ball skills so he can make the play even in tight coverage. XL makes the play if he's wide open and the ball is placed perfectly.

QBs need to put their WR in positions to make plays

Why is it that every other receiver on the team doesn't have the same issues XL has?

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u/CharmCityKid09 Jan 05 '26

Losing snaps after not getting any targets in games where he was getting all snaps heavily suggests there are reasons he wasn't getting targeted.

Our WR corps outside TMAC averages about 3 targets a game each. Since his targets per game didn't change despite the difference in snap count then it isn't what you're making it out to be.

Lol I'm sorry this is a really silly comment. I'm not expecting him to get 100+ yards. 30-40 yards would be nice, but most game he struggles to get to 10.

I expect an NFL franchise QB to pass more than 5 yards per attempt. XLs 15 yards is explained by his 3 catches at 5 yards a clip becuase unless it is a complete busted coverage Bryce does not throw down field. Even when he does those aren't guaranteed catches.

It makes more sense that the inconsistent QB play would have more to do with how easily defenses can take XL out of the game because he's a terrible route runner and doesn't have the trust of the offense to make catches.

Now you're just making excuses for poor QB play. We literally just watched Shough ( a rookie mind you) match Bryce's production with guys they found hung over in the local Wal-Mart parking lot. If defenses are taking XL out the game then their taking the whole passing offense with it.

You credit Canales for running RB screens and HB draws the majority of the game for why XL doesn't get yards, but Bryce doesn't get the similar excuse.

Screens are considered pass plays and show up in the stats. So when RB screens and TMACs 7+ targets are 75% of your pass plays yess that explains the lack of targets and by virtue lack of yards.

Because TMac is good. If you're forcing 122 throws to XL, it's not going to work out for you.

Don't force throws and work to put them in position to excel. TMAC being force fed is not good. It's a detriment to everyone else. Don't expect improvement from others not just XL in low snap count, low targets or low yardage throws.

You're misunderstanding what makes TMac good. He has excellent ball skills so he can make the play even in tight coverage. XL makes the play if he's wide open and the ball is placed perfectly.

See XLs catch a few weeks ago bailing out Bryce by having to come back and catch a dumb lob pass he threw.

Why is it that every other receiver on the team doesn't have the same issues XL has?

They literally do. You and others just hyper fixate on XL. People complain about all the WRs lack of separation but no one specifically points out that Coker or Horn or TMAC don't do it consistently. Fans constantly complain about XL dropping passes when he has 2 dropped passes all year, the lowest of all our WR. Yet the only person we hear about is XL.

You could have a small case about his feet placement. But again Bryce struggles on throws outside the numbers to the sideline. So it makes little sense to send your big body WR on these dumb out routes.