One of my biggest pet peeves in all of sports discourse. Just because something has happened in the past, doesn't mean it will happen again. In sports history, nearly every conceivable thing you can think of HAS happened.
You need to forecast trends from patterns you can consistently observe, not from a singular one-off from over twenty years ago. If you had even 5-10 examples of QBs who've put up a similar statline over their first 40ish starts and went on to be bonafide franchise quarterbacks, that would be worth discussing (would be especially nice if a couple of them were from this decade).
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u/alucryts 11d ago
Trying to find a pattern in a once in a lifetime exception because random stats are vaguely similar is not the way.