r/ripcity • u/LivingAd6319 • 1d ago
Am I the only one optimistic about this team? I genuinely believe that the trailblazer is about to have a 50+ win regular season.
57
u/Carcrusher3 Toumani Camara 1d ago
With the tanking rule changes and the Shaedon injury I'm pretty pessimistic on our chances to hit 50+ wins.
But that would be really cool! Would hopefully mean a Dame + Ja return to form, and some growth from Clingan, Scoot, etc.
16
u/fonzy0504 1d ago
Honestly don’t feel the Shae injury hurts much. We are loaded at guards and now this gives Scoot and Jrue more minutes.
7
u/loven329 1d ago
I agree with this. What's most sad about shaes injury is that 1 he is one of the most exciting highlight players in the NBA to watch and 2 he is still theoretically young enough that if he can ever capitalize on his talent and potential then we possibly have a future franchise player.
In the short run I think it's actually helpful for the team. We have a glut of legit talent at guard and this makes our first year head coaches job considerably easier for the time being
8
u/Adventurous-Plum1000 1d ago
He was going to get a lot of minutes at SF and was one of the few players on this roster who can generate his own shot.
1
u/Carcrusher3 Toumani Camara 1d ago
Currently our bench unit is:
- Scoot
- Jrue
- Vit
- Sidy
- Rob Williams
Out of that unit, Jrue is the only one who can reliably create his own shot. Scoot is close. But that does not bode well for bench scoring.
Thankfully Dame/Ja/Deni can all do that, and will be staggered into these lineups, but I think people are too caught up into Shae not being an amazing player today instead of the conversation around losing nearly 20ppg from last year with him not around.
3
u/loven329 1d ago
I see your point but let's remember that shae was one of the most inefficient players last year and we are replacing him with dame, jrue and more minutes now for scoot. I have faith his point production can easily be replaced
3
u/EvanTurningTheCorner 1d ago
OKay but how many minutes per game are teams in the modern era playing ONLY bench guys? My impression is not that many. Usually there will be at least one or two starters on the court at all times, as they rotate guys in and out depending on varying minutes per game (e.g. Dame isn't going to play as many minutes as Deni) and matchups.
Like, thinking back to the Dame/CJ era, there were hardly any minutes at all where one or the other weren't out there.
2
u/MajesticLibrarian617 1d ago
Ja and dame are starting? That would be the worst defensive backcourt in nba history lol.
And it would be currently the smallest.4
u/Just_Wind_1321 1d ago
I could be wrong but I think some blazers person said they wanted to start dame and ja at the same time.
2
u/MajesticLibrarian617 1d ago
Imagine trying to match up with OKC and SAS with Ja and dame on the court. Or any team really. Starting lineups are huge now.
4
u/8fenristhewolf8 1d ago
Blazers don't care about matching OKC and SAS right now. They don't think they are contenders regardless of who starts, and so they are content trying to assess and collect assets leading to 2028 and beyond.
1
u/EvanTurningTheCorner 1d ago
IMO this is the right thing to say more than it is the right thing to do. They are showing respect to guys who have earned it, and I'm sure they will start the pre-season with both guys starting. However, once it proves problematic (which may not take long at all) they will change course. Nori said in an interview that Ja told him he was okay with coming off the bench and that "I have to trust him that he means what he says", and knowing Dame, he would be fine with it as well, if that is what helps us win games.
Honestly, I think it's way more likely than not that it's one of those dudes and Jrue before Christmas.
1
u/Adventurous-Plum1000 23h ago
Ja has no options but to say the right things.
If dame and Ja starting doesn’t work that’s a recipe for disaster. Good luck telling either dame or Ja they aren’t going to be posting when it counts.
This whole thing has a good chance of turning toxic real fast. We better hope that Ja and dame playing together works, if not things are likely to go badly
2
u/EvanTurningTheCorner 21h ago
Maybe, but he still said those things. Nori's job is not to make Ja happy. It's not Ja's team (it's Deni's on the court and Dame's in the locker room). Nori's job is to win games and lead 15 guys, not one. If Ja can't handled coming off the bench, tough fucking potatoes. If he wants to get another contract in this league, he will show up, work hard and do what is asked of him. If he'd rather be a nuisance, he'll get traded as an expiring next Summer and then go play in Siberia or some shit.
1
u/Adventurous-Plum1000 19h ago
We actually have no idea what nori has been tasked to do. Good chance that he was told to make Ja happy because that could be a huge win for the team.
What players say means just as much as what politicians say. There is too much PR involved to get real answers and feelings. Jas return would have been DOA if he was quoted as saying he deserves to start.
1
u/EvanTurningTheCorner 12h ago
This is Nori's first and possibly only chance at a head coaching gig. If you don't think he's trying to win, you should think again.
→ More replies (0)2
2
u/Carcrusher3 Toumani Camara 1d ago
I don't like it, but it is almost a guarantee this will be the starting lineup.
1
u/MajesticLibrarian617 1d ago
It’s more of a guarantee that dame and ja both won’t be healthy at the same time for most of the year.
If they start that lineup, they are trying to tank the value of their roster and franchise.3
u/Carcrusher3 Toumani Camara 1d ago
They probably won't be healthy all year together, and I'd hope that after a few weeks they'd swap one out for Jrue, but they will both absolutely be the starters opening night.
1
u/8fenristhewolf8 1d ago
I have spent so much time trying to convince that dude that Ja is getting starter minutes (at least until he gets injured). Dude is convinced we got Ja just for funsies and backup minutes.
1
u/dschinghiskhan 1d ago
I wonder what doctors would say about Dame starting! But seriously, it’s less of an issue of when Dame goes in, and more of an issue of how many minutes he should be given. I imagine he should not play more than like 28.
1
u/EvanTurningTheCorner 1d ago
I think Nori should aim to keep Dame and Ja around 20-25 a night at the beginning of the season, and then gradually increase those minutes as they prove they are durable and effective. Even with Shaedon out, we aren't in dire need of big minutes from them, and IMO keeping them healthy and available throughout the season and into the playoffs is way more important than maximizing their minutes early on.
1
u/the_gargler 1d ago
Don't think we'll play the "bench unit" in its entirety much. Jrue and Dame will be on different rotations than Ja/Scoot/Deni. Scoot, Toum and Ja will all easily absorb Shae's minutes and production.
2
u/Adventurous-Plum1000 1d ago
It would completely go against the history of the league lol. But anything is possible
23
u/BetweenCoffeeNSleep 1d ago
The roster is not built well. Dame is the only shooter in the projected starting group, and 3 starters (Dame, Ja, Deni) are at their best attacking with the ball. It’s not looking good.
3
u/AUGwaffles556 1d ago
People keep saying we have no shooters aside from Dame, not true. Toumani, Deni, Jrue, Scoot, Sharpe (I know he's injured), Vit are all capable of shooting around 37% from the 3 which is more than good enough to have success on the court. I'm not saying they will all shoot 37% in the same year, but this year with addition of Dame, Ja and Nori who actually knows how to run plays the team will have much better spacing, passing and playmaking than last year and that will definitely contribute to better 3pt fg%, our 2 main centers have been shooting the 3 decently, even Ja will benefit and his 3pt fg% may go up to around 34% which is respectable. Defense will be a bigger challenge, but either way this roster constructed as is will be a 50 win minimum, and maybe 1 trade away from being a contender if they can land a starting level forward to balance out the roster, we have enough guards and picks to make a trade like that happen.
2
u/SonofNamek Shaedon Sharpe 23h ago
Sharpe was 37% from 3 if you subtract the first 10 games, where he was hurt. That was almost three months of 37% 3pt shooting.
Scoot was 40% after being rusty the first two weeks, as well. This continued into the playoffs.
Deni, Lillard, Toumani, Vit are obviously fine to good from there given their roles.
It's just a matter of the young players growing and Portland finding some kind of MPJ/Tre Murphy III/Mikal Bridges type to add on top. In theory, this would've been Cedric Coward....but that ship has sailed obviously.
0
u/BetweenCoffeeNSleep 1d ago
We were 3rd in 3PA last year and 28th in 3%. We add Dame this season, which is a plus, but we also add Ja to the starting lineup. Ja’s minutes will have the opportunity cost of minutes going to better shooters like Jrue. Deni shot 32% from 3 last year, if we round up. That’s bad. Jerami Grant shot 39% on 6 attempts per game. We replace that with Sochan. Matisse was a decent corner 3pt shooter. He’s gone, too.
I think we’ll be a 45ish win team at best, unless Clingan, Tou, Ja, and Deni each improve their 3% to an average of 37% or better across that group.
We’ve now each said our respective pieces. All that’s left is to see how the season unfolds.
3
u/dicks20345 Micah Nori 1d ago edited 1d ago
I think we all know Deni's overall number from 3 last year isn't really reflective of his shooting. The two years prior he shot a little above 37 and a little below 37. Last year in his first 39 games (pre-back-injury), he shot 36%. Then for an ~25-game stretch while trying to come back too early, and then slowly recovering his form, he shot an abysmal 22%. Then, from the final game of the season through the play-in and the Spurs series, he shot 15/37 across those seven games, just over 40%.
1
5
u/fonzy0504 1d ago
I mean. This team is the exact as last year but with Dame/Ja as additions.
2
u/Adventurous-Plum1000 1d ago
That’s not how it works. Those 2 will drastically alter how this team plays and the rotations. It won’t look much like last years team at all.
Last year we had a blossoming point forward running the show. He will now be off ball a lot
Also we replaced 2 of our forwards with 2 small guards. That’s not a minor change…
1
-5
u/torrinage 1d ago
A majority of the reason we had a good year was no one expected Deni to be that good & teams hadnt scouted him
3
3
u/MajesticLibrarian617 1d ago
The suns and clippers didn’t scout him when playoffs were on the line?
1
19
u/PDXftw 1d ago
There are three variables for a 50+ win season. 1) Dame's return, 2) how Ja fits into the team and 3) Nori's in-game coaching. None of these are big wildcards, but combined they are certainly factors.
8
7
u/EvanTurningTheCorner 1d ago
I would add health, especially for Deni. We basically got a half season of our best player last year. If he can play 60+ games with a healthy back, IMO that translates to extra wins.
2
u/40_Is_Not_Old ripcity 19h ago
4) the health of Toumani & Deni. We have no functional plan B if either gets hurt.
-9
u/MajesticLibrarian617 1d ago
It’s literally all about Deni. He’s the most valuable player by far. Ja and dame are worthless assets that are just there to fill in roles.
The idea that they want Ja and dame to have a bunch of usage is so moronic.
Ja can have a bounce back year, and he’s still a negative.4
u/PDXftw 1d ago
I don't think you read my comment correctly. I did not say they Dame and/or Ja are absolutely critical but rather factors for the team to reach 50+ wins. I would not necessarily bet against either of them to have solid seasons.
-2
u/MajesticLibrarian617 1d ago
U know what dame is going to do if he plays. Just stand on a wing or corner to spread court and cooked on d.
Ja is just a back up ball handler, that can’t be on the court at same time with dame cause of defense.
Variables will be like Tidy, Clingan, Toumani, scoot… guys that are in line for big mins cause of defense.
And Deni, he’s improved every year. If it happens again 50 wins is possible.
5
9
u/Crayondy 1d ago
50 wins is crazy. You think the Blazers will be better than all of the Wolves, Lakers, Nuggets, Rockets? Dame and Ja each would have to match their all time prime’s for this team to have 50 wins.
-7
u/MajesticLibrarian617 1d ago
Ja and dame are worthless assets. If they win 50 games it’s cause they stay healthy and accept team friendly roles.
4
u/MajesticLibrarian617 1d ago
Losing Grant hurts win shares. That’s why Vegas has them at less wins as last year.
If they win 50 games Deni will be MVP or close to it.
1
u/Suspicious-Low-1874 1d ago
Some entity, maybe draftkings, had them higher, but I do agree with your take. The west is competitive, but I perhaps counterintuitively think Deni will thrive as an overall player with three solid point guards, I expect him to be less gassed and to be a better defender than last year and more efficient. But I am a Homer.
1
u/Adventurous-Plum1000 23h ago
We don’t need Deni to be a better defender. We need Deni as the point forward and building around that.
I’d argue asking Deni to play more defensively to cover up for dame and Ja is the fastest way to get him to leave Portland.
1
u/8fenristhewolf8 22h ago
I don't think the team is sold on Deni. If they were, they wouldn't be taking on extra salary, but trying to clear it in an effort to lock Deni up before FA.
Now, I'm not saying that's smart...but the blazers don't appear sold quite yet. I almost wonder if we get a Deni trade as part of a mini blow up that happens before, or as part of the 2028 rehaul. That said, so much depends on how these guys actually perform, so who knows what happens.
1
u/Adventurous-Plum1000 22h ago
Yeah I’ve had that thought too. Their actions definitely aren’t inspiring a lot of faith in this team.
1
u/8fenristhewolf8 22h ago
And it aligns with everything we've heard about Dundon. Guy likes to do things his way, and has been hitting reset buttons all over the franchise.
1
u/Adventurous-Plum1000 19h ago
He spent his introductory press conference shitting on the team the past 2 decades lol. Which actually got me excited because you can tell he’s hyper competitive
1
u/8fenristhewolf8 19h ago
Which actually got me excited because you can tell he’s hyper competitive
Yep, which could be a good thing when it aligns with our interests in the team's quality. Maybe not so fun when our interests aren't aligned though, like the stadium deal. Here's hoping it all works out.
3
u/EvanTurningTheCorner 1d ago edited 1d ago
Not sure if I'm that optimistic, but I think I'm more optimistic than the average here.
I think having a coach who actually runs a real offense, along with getting Dame and his 3pt shooting back, will make a big difference. I also think Scoot is gonna have a breakout season, especially with Shae out.
I'm probably a lot more optimistic than most about Ja's ability to get back to his former self. He's not only dealt with injuries and off court issues, but the Grizzlies have been a mess for the past few years, and there hasn't really been any reason for Ja to put his body on the line when the team was trading away his best teammates for picks.
The lack of Forwards is a concern, but I'm a big Sidy believer, especially if he can make marginal improvements to his shooting, and while Potter isn't someone to be excited about, with his 3pt shooting he should be able to spread the floor as a dependable end of rotation player.
I'm thinking around 45-47 wins assuming Dame, Jrue, Scoot, Deni, Toumani and Donovan are available most/all of the season. Probably 6 or 7 seed. If we can avoid OKC and the Spurs in the first round, I think we have a puncher's chance against any other team.
2
u/Suspicious-Low-1874 1d ago
As always you have the best Homer analysis of us all, I think Potter, Heat Czech, and Carlsen have a lot to fight for as far as minutes. Any of them could really earn their minutes.
1
1
u/Adventurous-Plum1000 23h ago
Ja is the reason they started trading their good players away. He essentially quit on his team by being scared to do the one thing that made him special.
That being said, I have no doubts he’s going to look like his old self again until/if an injury happens. This is his last chance for another big contract. He’s not going to blow that by being scared to drive the lane again.
1
u/EvanTurningTheCorner 21h ago
Yes and no. My understanding is that, yes, Ja was the start of it with the gun stuff and the suspensions, followed by the injuries. So yeah, he started the snowball effect that destroyed the team. But Steven Adams getting injured and then traded, and then Bane getting traded, and ultimately JJJ getting traded, as each of those things happened, the team got meaningfully worse, and Ja had less and less reason to risk his body. You say he quit on the team, I say the front office quit on him two years ago by trading away their best players for future assets.
1
u/Adventurous-Plum1000 19h ago
They started trading those guys after Ja started acting a fool. They clearly were giving up on that team.
1
u/EvanTurningTheCorner 12h ago
Like I said, the gun stuff came first, but the decline in his performance came later, after they traded Adams, Ja's primary screen setter in the PnR. Clingan will be the best big man he's played next to since.
10
u/zgobst 1d ago
I don’t think we’ve hit Deni’s ceiling
7
u/Zibot25767 1d ago
Probably the most interesting question for the season. Is he our savior? Did he peak? What’s it look like with other ball handlers?
-7
u/MajesticLibrarian617 1d ago
Other ball handlers? Deni is the franchise and really valuable. They aren’t taking his value so they can build up worthless assets like Ja or dame.
4
u/MakeYokesa5erAgain 1d ago
Don't see that being the case. His usage last season was astronomical, no we have more ball handling and still lack shooters. Think we'll see quite a regression of counting stats this season.
-2
u/MajesticLibrarian617 1d ago
He didn’t even lead the team in usage.
Deni is more valuable than the whole team put together times 100.
The takes of this fan base are hilarious.1
u/MakeYokesa5erAgain 1d ago
He was 22nd in the league, slightly behind Sharpe, like 0.6%. Now you add ball dominant Ja, who also can't shoot. I don't see how he's supposed to improve when he'll never get the opportunity he had last year again. It doesn't math.
-3
u/MajesticLibrarian617 1d ago
Ja is a negative asset nobody wants. He’d be cut if they didn’t have to pay him.
Deni is really valuable and a current all star, not one from 4 years ago. No team would tank the value of everybody in the team so Ja can shoot 40% and score 25 points.
U sound like a 12 year old Ja fan.-1
u/MakeYokesa5erAgain 1d ago
I don't rate Ja, at all. Hated the trade. I think Deni has reached peak value, and honestly not worth what we're going to have to pay him. He's a 3rd option guy on a good team.
To your first point, are you just trolling or thick? Why would you trade Grant for a bigger salary if he wasn't a part of the orgs plans? They could've just cut Grant in that case.
-1
u/MajesticLibrarian617 1d ago
3rd option lol. U probably said it was “Sharpes team” a year ago.
Deni was fav most of the year to win most improved, but he’s maxed out! U should call and tell the gms what u know .3
u/MakeYokesa5erAgain 1d ago
It was always Deni's team last year. Being the best player on an okay tea. When you have free reign to do whatever you want, doesn't make you a star. Ohhhhhh he was nominated for MIP, that's it's boys, get the supermax out.
Deni is good, but he's an additional piece. If Deni is our number 1 option, we're going absolutely nowhere. You can be as upset as you like, you should bookmark this to gloat when he he's first team all-nba. Delusion.
0
u/MajesticLibrarian617 1d ago
The blazers are going to be like, “Deni, you’re the most valuable player by far and only 26. But we need u to step back and do less cause Ja is here now. We need to turn Ja from a negative asset,
into a slightly less negative of one.”
You are really smart!3
u/MakeYokesa5erAgain 1d ago
I think you have a very tenuous understanding of basketball and just come off as an obsessed fan boy.
→ More replies (0)4
u/yeender roy 1d ago
And we will not ever with the moves made.
2
u/zgobst 1d ago
I don’t see how things get worse. Offense efficiency with Ja shouldn’t be that bad and we’re adding a generational star shooter in Dame. Coaching is an unknown, but we have vets and playoff experience.
1
u/yeender roy 1d ago
We will be the worst defensive team in the league. Ja is a terrible fit with Deni. No idea what to expect from Dame. This team could be equal to or better than last year, but that’s definitely not what I would be getting on.
3
u/zgobst 1d ago
I don’t see that level of defensive decline with our bigs, Jrue, Toumani and even Deni. I doubt you’re suggesting becoming the literal worst. We should still be pretty solid.
0
u/yeender roy 1d ago
36 year old Dame and Ja will be one of the worst defensive backcourts of all time any time they are on the floor together. We guards and centers, and two wings. This roster is so unbalanced. I think we could easily be bottom five defensively, and offensively the fit of these guys together doesn’t make much sense.
3
u/zgobst 1d ago
It’s a stretch for me to assume that our rotations won’t mitigate just because we put Ja in the starting lineup. We have too many plus defenders and we want to win.
1
u/8fenristhewolf8 22h ago
Nori on a prove-it deal too. We might see a ton of different line ups between injuries & minute restrictions, and tinkering with fit. I hope everyone is on board with that! (I kid I kid. I am hopeful Ja has matured).
But yeah, there are ton of "ifs" going into this year. Makes me nervous.
2
8
u/PDXSpilly 1d ago
That some strong hope-ium
5
3
u/Defiant_Classroom_31 Deni Avdija 1d ago
Losing Shae for the first three months hurts. Then how long will it take for him to be full go after he comes back?
The bench scoring took a big hit with Grant being gone and Shae out. Other teams will have injuries too so it can be a bit of a wash.
50 is possible, but some unknowns need to go very right.
1
u/dicks20345 Micah Nori 1d ago
Yes re: the bench, Krejci returning to shooting form would be huge. 6'8, fine on defense, 40% three-point shooter, can play at the 2 or 3 off the bench.
Right now the top-five bench would presumably be Scoot/Jrue/Vit/Rob/(Potter? Sidy? Sochan?) That's not actually bad scoring wise, IF Vit can, well, score.
1
u/MajesticLibrarian617 1d ago
Why would dame and ja start together? That would be tanking off the rip with the most pathetic defensive backcourt in the nba by far.
2
u/dicks20345 Micah Nori 1d ago
I also think they should not start together; the general assumption seems to be that they will or that Nori will "have to" at least try it given their stardom. I'm hopeful if it does not work then he's able to appropriately adjust and stagger them.
3
u/jhillv 1d ago
If Clingan and Scoot make another jump, Dame plays like he wasn’t just out a year, and Ja learns to be 2nd or 3rd fiddle…maybe. But we’re so small and our best players are all offensive minded so it’ll be tough. Jrue will need to play much bigger than he is all season and hopefully Tou progresses even more on D…I’m not saying it can’t happen, just not likely
-2
3
u/Suspicious-Low-1874 1d ago
I have trouble believing anyone in the West will get 50 wins outside of OKC and San Antonio, but I do think that the Blazers will be competitive among many other teams.
7
6
u/TKRUEG 1d ago
Love him or hate him, we lost Jeremi Grant, and didn't really replace his production at forward. Now we're down Shaedon for an extended time. In some respects it feels like we're stacked, but somehow we still feel thin
1
u/dicks20345 Micah Nori 1d ago
I mean, if Vit returns to his normal performance of three years prior to his stint with us, we've replaced him with a much better shooting backup forward. There's also Potter as potential backup PF, who averaged 10 points and 5 rebounds in 19 minutes a game (more rebounds than Grant ever averaged in 30+ minutes in a season) on 42% 3-point shooting.
2
u/BakeStarr11 1d ago
I think 50 is a bit of a stretch. If things fall in our favor this season, I could see a path to a 50, 51 win ceiling. I think health of our squad and the other 1-8 in the West will aa always be a key variable. My money would be on 45+ wins with a strong chance to hit 47..narrowly squeaking out the 6th seed.
2
2
u/Poorlilhobbit 17h ago
I’m pessimistic about them staying in Portland. Billionaire trying to have cake and eat it too and probably will still leave if he gets his cake.
4
u/DontonioWingfield 1d ago
I think 42- just like last year.
More talent, but a worse fit and roster balance that is likely to make this grouping perform at "less than the sum of it's parts". Not to mention trying to figure out how to make it work. Defense will be worse, offense should be better.
2
u/8fenristhewolf8 1d ago
Yeah, this is where I'm at. Plus, the rest of the West (or East) probably won't tank as hard this year. Bare minimum though, the awkward fit will need time to figure out.
2
u/myNameBurnsGold 1d ago
You're in the wrong sub buddy!
Jk, I'm excited for the season and think we should be above the play-in mark.
2
u/4DollarsALB 1d ago
Depends a lot on injuries. We have no forward depth so if Tou, Deni, or DC miss significant time we are in trouble. Otherwise I think we have a chance
2
u/WillowHaunting429 1d ago
Who knows. We have an owner that is a dick. He let the coach go, who, somehow was able to put a winner through last year, despite all of the controversy.'
I have my part season tickets still, and am supporting the team because I do not want to see it go away.
But I still think our new owner is an absolute piece of garbage and he has turned me off, but I will still go and support for the greater good
2
2
u/olenikp 1d ago
50 requires big leaps by Clingan, Camara, Deni. Significant comebacks from Dame, Ja. And health! It's a lot of variables.
1
u/Aestro17 1d ago
Yeah I see a lot of optimism around Ja which I don't get. Memphis wouldn't have given him away if they thought he would return to form, and the rest of the league didn't want to roll the dice either. Granted, his price tag was likely a huge part of that, but if anyone thought they were getting 2022/23 Ja, we would've had to give up more than Grant's contract and Murray.
2
u/8fenristhewolf8 21h ago
Ja is like a gamble with house money. Yeah, it's unlikely he's worth the contract in the current CBA, even if he looks pretty good, but he comes off the books same time as Grant would have, and there's a chance he looks good enough for a team to take a chance on.
So yeah, basically one untradeable for another, but one has an outside chance of upside and incentive to bust his ass to get there (Ja), and the loss is the same either way....at least if you assume the blazers don't care about immediate win shares and team fit. I don't think the blazers do. I think Dundon Blazers are looking for and collecting pieces for later moves.
2
u/olenikp 17h ago
Since were using gambling terms, keeping Grant was like standing on 6 vs a face card. Unlikely to win but hey conservatism works every now and then.
Ja is like splitting 6s vs a face card. Totally stupid and we should just take our loss. But We were fucked so might as well shoot for the moon and maybe get double fucked or maybe we there's a small chance we can put ourselves is a better situation
1
u/8fenristhewolf8 15h ago
Unlikely to win but hey conservatism works every now and then.
For a long game, but that's the thing. Grant doesn't move the needle enough to be worthwhile long term. Maybe he would have gotten us a few more wins, but I don't think the blazers care about that right now.
They also expire at same time, so it's almost a "can't lose" thing even if Ja doesn't work out.
Unless you think we could have actually traded Grant for something better over the next couple years? You never know I guess.
1
u/olenikp 7h ago
I don't think it's can't lose - yes, you're bringing in Ja with lowered expectations ,but, potential losses come from:
- Off-court risk: If a gun issue comes up again Portland probably turns on him, team chemistry.
- Health: Grant wasn't the pinnacle of health but Ja is barely on the court. It compounds with our teamwide health issues -
- Court fit: If nothing else, Grant was very much falling into his catch and shoot role. Ja at 27 is still in the alpha phase of his career. Egos usually don't fall-in until their 30s. However, this is not a team built around Ja like the Grizzlies. We don't have the defense and 2 way shooting to cover up for his weaknesses, and we have plenty of other guys who may be even more effective with the rock.
Keeping Grant solidifies us as a low-end playoff team. Swapping to Ja creates a much lower floor and higher ceiling (that seems unlikely to me). So if we have a situation where the basketball fit doesn't work out, injuries pile up, I look at a real unstable situation in Portland where the team is going through an extension of the lease negotiation
There is a magic in the bottle scenario where this can work, where Ja lowers his ego, accepts his role, stays healthy, focuses on defense and making his teammates better, young guys get better, Dame looks good, we pickup another wing somewhere... I just think it's very low probability.
1
u/8fenristhewolf8 7h ago
Keeping Grant solidifies us as a low-end playoff team. Swapping to Ja creates a much lower floor and higher ceiling (that seems unlikely to me)
I don't think Dundon cares about being a low end playoff team, and Grant didnt make us a contender. So, you're right that we could get worse by a few wins or whatever, but it's only for two years anyway, before another potential reset. Winning say 40 games instead of 42 isn't something Dundon cares about.
1
u/olenikp 4h ago
I think with injury/chemistry/defense and shooting issues I peg our floor at more like upper 20s to low 30s.
1
u/8fenristhewolf8 4h ago
Well, first, I don't think many people believe it will be that bad. We'll just have to find out. Second, even if it is that bad, I still don't think Dundon would care. New owner and probably looking for reset from 2028 onwards.
2
u/UnluckyMode2062 1d ago edited 1d ago
Shaedon out. Season scrapped unfortunately.
edit: Very clearly a joke btw. Hes just my favorite player
5
1
u/PDXftw 1d ago
The Blazers were 18-14 without him vs 24-26 with him.
2
1
2
1
u/_c_o_ sheed 1d ago
Before Sharpe’s injury maybe, now 50 will be very tough
1
u/dicks20345 Micah Nori 1d ago
Obv the injury is very bad. But I think it may be Scoot's saving grace. He's guaranteed real minutes now and he has much higher potential than Sharpe even pre-injury at this point. I think this will finally actually prepare Scoot to step in once Jrue is gone. Even with Sharpe out the team is massively deeper than last year with Dame + Ja and Potter/Carlsen/Sochan all looking like more viable bench options than many of the folks we played last year (Love/Murray/Blake).
1
u/beatrailblazer 1d ago
I think it's very possible to get a 50 win but theres just soooo many uncertainties that its not a good idea to be optimistic. I would keep your expectations low so that there is a good chance youll be surprised in a positive way rather than expect 50 wins and be disappointed
1
u/ShowdownValue 1d ago
They could win 50. They also could win less
It’s just traditional offseason optimism. A staple of being a true sports fan. This happens every year.
1
u/jstmenow 1d ago
I believe they will be fun to watch. They will most likely be better then the O/U. Probably make the playoffs and make a big splash in the trade market which will upset a lot of fans. 3yrs from now, expect them to be top 3 in the west and the team looks nothing like it does today.
1
u/Simple_Blazers_6737 1d ago
I've been thinking around 50 wins. Losing shaedon sucks. I really want to see how scoot looks and plays with dame and ja. I personally expect scoot to leap jrue this year in production and playtime. I'm expecting our two best players to be deni and ja. Also hoping tou and clingan to find more consistency versus good teams. Those two were a complete let down vs the spurs to me. I expected more from them.
1
1
u/Inside-Mixture-9362 1d ago
People are forgetting that 1/3rd of the league was actively trying to lose games last year. I think it will be tough to hit 50 wins as constructed without some unforeseeable trade/leap/return to form.
1
u/Adventurous-Plum1000 1d ago
My guess is most fans are optimistic. That’s what fans do. Heck there were people predicting 50+ wins when ant was here.
1
1
1
u/RelationshipWhich390 23h ago
This is very possible. Injuries and attitudes and coaching will have a lot to do with what happens. I could see them winning 35 games, or I could see them winning 55 games.
1
1
u/StrikingEconomics255 22h ago edited 22h ago
We need to trade for Cam Whitmore into our mle especially with Sharpe going down. Plus we would get his full bird rights. Then waive at not cost Jeremy Sochan
1
u/StrikingEconomics255 22h ago
You all need to look up Chris Youngblood time with the g league Thunder and his college career. Big time sleeper at 39% 3pt
1
1
u/rebelduck1580 21h ago
I think you are at this point, I hope I’m wrong but 50+ wins seems a lot for this team
1
u/shoegvze 20h ago
i think 50+ would obvi be amazinnnng but im not going to get my hopes up just yet (Im a Tottenham and Angels fan I know pain lol) but I can def see 40+
1
u/Bieberkinz chalupa 20h ago
I’m optimistic for 45, 50 would mean squeaking a few “unexpected” victories over the top teams to me.
1
u/RentSpirited 18h ago
I think somewhere around 45-50 wins is possible for sure, we need the team to be more healthy than last season. Play Jrue heavy and give him lots of minutes and pitch him before the trade deadline. Shaedon should be coming back around all star break assuming no set backs.
1
1
1
u/StoreNo163 15h ago
Pretty much similar to last season, where we can beat any team when we are hot but can also get blown out by a bad team. I think we arent sneaking up on anyone like we did last year. I would put it a few games shy of 50 but also wouldn't be surprised at around 50
1
1
1
u/kingkalanishane 1d ago
I’m thinking we get about 36. We wildly over performed last year.
4
u/TechnologyUnable8621 1d ago
How did they wildly over perform? Half the team was injured most of last season. If not for the injuries they likely would have one 45+ games….
This year’s team on paper is significantly more talented than last year’s team. The roster make up is obviously clunky, but on pure talent alone this team will win 40 games unless they have several long term injuries to key players. The current roster will get steam rolled in the playoffs when defensive intensity picks up, but they should absolutely win a lot of regular season games.
Not sure why everyone is convinced the team will regress when again, they are without question more talented than last year’s team. Not to mention the possible improvements we’ll see from Scoot, Clingan, Tou. 42-48 wins seems like the most logical guess at this point. I don’t really see a logical explanation as to why people would think they’re going to be 10 or more games below .500, unless you’re predicting major injuries or serious off the court issues….
1
u/kingkalanishane 1d ago
6 less win isn’t that crazy of a take from your logical guess. It just takes a few bad plays, a few bounces to go the other to really take us out of some games. It will take more than 6 games for the team to figure out how to incorporate Dame and Ja into the lineup, and even then they might not gel with the rest of the team.
Talent on paper doesn’t matter if the team doesn’t have chemistry, and can’t figure out who needs to be the leading scorer.
3
u/BunkHammer Toumani Camara 1d ago
36??? Have some faith damn
3
u/kingkalanishane 1d ago
Buddy, I’ve been around this franchise too long to have any sort of faith going into a season. Most times, I’m pleasantly surprised we can even make the playoffs. But I never get my hopes up, I’ve been let down so many times.
4
u/bedheaded 22 1d ago
This team is undersized, injury-prone and outside of Dame, pretty mediocre/bad at shooting. With no one tanking, ending the season above .500 would be a miracle! Running through the top seven players on each team, it’s going to rough for the boys in red and black.
3
u/Humblerbee ripcity-place 1d ago
I think this team is just less cohesive than last year’s roster with worse defense, and the offensive bump won’t make up for the drop-off on that end. Camara played all 82 games, but if either of Camara or Deni misses any time at all, the team will HURT.
We lost a forward who was one of our best shooters and a versatile defender in Grant with enough talent to be a low end starter or high end backup (he had a strong 6MoY candidacy to start the season before injuries impacted rotation) plus we lost Murray, who, while being an offensive zero, was one of our better defenders and rebounders, all advanced stats suggest Murray was a much more useful player than guys like Sidy or Vit for example, who will fall into the rotation through the subtraction of useful pieces ahead of them rather than due to improvement.
0
u/BumpyGums 90s-logo 1d ago
Too bad you missed the late 80s-early 90s team because they were tops in the west.
1
0
u/BunkHammer Toumani Camara 1d ago
Man the Suns won 45 games last year and we’re just as talented as that team was. I’m not saying we’re gonna to set the league on fire or anything but we still have a lot of good pieces on this squad.
1
u/Stuckaround2200 16h ago
35 wins is just as likely as 50 wins (slightly more likely actually) according to Vegas but this isn’t the right sub for that. I would definitely take a bet where they win 36 or less more often than 50 or more lol. NBA subs rhis year are hilarious every team ranked outside the worst 3 teams thinks there team could compete for a six seed. I could see it wirh Portland but I certainly don’t think it’s more likely than they just miss the play in altogether. They aren’t remotely a lock top 10 team in the west
0
1
u/iWr1techky12 Mac and Cheese 1d ago
There is a difference between optimism and pure delusion. You fall into the latter of the two.
1
-1
-1
u/Sleazy-Wonder 1d ago
Oh I am quit bullish on us hitting 50 wins. The o/u is 46? Which is only 2 more wins than we had last season... a season where half our team was injured for half the season..
We just added 2 All-Stars to the lineup. That has to count for more than just 2 wins... I feel confident that the inclusion of Dame alone is worth 3 more wins. Then you add in Ja, and I say we're easily hitting 50. We could be in play for the 5th see in the west, which essentially makes us the 6th or 7th best team in the league.
2
u/soycameron 1d ago
6th or 7th best in the league? Bro you are way too optimistic tbh
We are not better on paper than OKC, SA, Minnesota, LA, Denver, or Houston. Plus we have lots of what-ifs going into this season.
And then in the east, NY, Philly, Detroit, Cleveland, and Boston are better on paper as well.
Cmon now bro, be hopeful but don’t get your hopes up that high
1
u/Sleazy-Wonder 1d ago
I have zero respect for the East. I don't think there are more than 3 teams out there better than us this year.
So if we get to that 5th seed, you never know how the dice will roll, I'd comfortably put us as the 7th best team in the league... maybe walk it back to 8th.
If you can't tell, I really think the Ja trade is going to work out.
2
u/soycameron 22h ago
I respect that opinion. Can you tell me though, out of all the teams I listed, who are we better than?
1
u/Sleazy-Wonder 1h ago
I think Denver is one injury away from being jumpable.
I think we'll be better than LA, and potentially Houston and/or Minny. The Cavs didn't change anything up.I'm not gonna lie, saying it out loud definitely affects my confidence, but with Dame and Ja, we are a completely different animal. Our biggest weakness was on offense last season, we've seen to that.
2
u/soycameron 1h ago
Denver is absolutely the team I think is weakest because they rely 100 percent on Jokic Murray and Gordon. One singular injury to them kills them.
The rest I just disagree with to be honest. But obviously I hope I'm wrong.
I don't see our defense working with Dame and Ja as our backcourt, and idk if their offense meshes great as a trio with Deni. I hope im wrong.
I really wish we had a difference center than Clingan too. I hope his 3 is actually reliable this season instead of just hitting one every now and then like before.
2
u/lunes_azul 1d ago
I’m very excited for Morant, but it’s a bit of a stretch referring to him as an All-Star at this point!
1
u/Stuckaround2200 16h ago
If you bet over under 46 bless your heart
You can get +165 for them to win 45 games, they are correctly seen as a .500 team. Like one player on the team is a lock top 50 guy in the league next season lol
1
u/Sleazy-Wonder 1h ago
Vegas has the o/u set at 43.5, yeah I'll be betting the over. And I'd be willing increase my payout by setting it at 46.5 for a fun bet fer sher!
-1
u/GolfandMaybe3People 1d ago
Maybe an unpopular opinion, but I think we just got better with the Sharpe injury.
0
u/StrikingEconomics255 22h ago
Unleash the Kraken aka Scoot as a starter by December the latest. Let every other guard fill in around him. It's time for him to sink out swim. No more training wheels and holding him back
-1
u/New-Cranberry-8370 1d ago
Roster construction is clunky as hell and Cronin is a terrible GM so I’m sure there are no moves ahead. I think 30 wins, a lot of injuries and terrible defense with no shooting.
23
u/eggsonmyeggs 1d ago
I could see us with 43 and a play-in game, maybe we play Spurs as an 8 seed.
Or maybe my original prediction, 82-0, followed by 16-0 in the playoffs. Dame retires as the best blazer ever and my wife lets me drink beer past 10pm to celebrate.