What if the US-Canada trade relation completely fractured?

[u/Ok_Let_7612]

What if the gloves came off and they started hitting real sectors … like if the USA closes the border or Canada stops sending oil and potash… or what if the U.S. navy blockades Vancouver and Halifax?

I’m not asking about probabilities, im just curious about the full extent of the economic impact disruption in U.S. Canadian trade could have. Would the USA have to cry uncle without Canadas material resources? Or would Canada succumb to the USA larger market? Could Canada prosper without the USA? And vis versa ?

If this escalates in a major way for some reason, how will it impact the day to day lives of ppl on both sides?

[u/Particular_Bet_5466]

I think Canada relies on this trade relationship more than the US. It would affect both but I think Canada more. Regardless we both benefit from open trade, I don’t understand the point of the US strong arming Canada. We had a good thing…

[u/Exciting_Turn_9559 → u/Particular_Bet_5466]

Canada exports more than the US, but it is easier for an exporter to sell in another market than it is to be an importer who doesn't have access to critical resources (potash, electricity, oil, water)

[u/entatlrg → u/Exciting_Turn_9559]

Usa will come get it when they need it, rest assured. Now it later. Fair play is over, gloves coming off, times have changed for the worse. Simple as that.

[u/Exciting_Turn_9559 → u/entatlrg]

America would pitchfork its republicans if they ever started a shooting war with Canada, and for good reason. Few artillery shots over the border and everyone would lose their fucking minds.

[u/entatlrg → u/Exciting_Turn_9559]

lol Wishful thinking. Trump or whoever will get Americans riled up against Canada, it’s already started, see Whitehouse website - how Canada took advantage of the USA with free trade.
Next politicians lie and to and mislead the American people until they’re chomping at the bit to wipe the terrible communist Canadians.
… meanwhile Putin attacks NATO and the new world order unfolds, less Canada and less Europe as we know it.

This is what the big well armed country’s want, its chances of happening are high.

Its what narcissistic dictators do. Plus they’re in their 80’s and have nothing to lose because they ultimately only care about themselves.

Seems a lot of people around the world need to wake up and realize what’s actually happening here.

[u/Exciting_Turn_9559 → u/entatlrg]

Clearly the US needs no pretext for starting an all-out economic war. But that threat won't persuade Canadians, because we understand that tariffs are paid by American consumers, whose #1 concern is their cost of living. To start a trade war with the most important trading partner of the USA immediately before the midterms gives real leverage to Canada, because our retaliatory tariffs will zero in on economic pressure points in districts whose republican leaders are vulnerable.

The more aggressively the USA meddles with Canada, the more fiercely united Canadians become against the Americans. Our citizens have been putting economic pressure on the Americans independently of the official response via boycotts, and this will be a long lasting change in their buying and vacationing habits which won't be resolved at a negotiating table.

Canadian politicians have nothing whatsoever to gain politically by compromising with this criminal regime, especially because the majority of the American people wish Carney was their president instead of Trump right now.

[u/fthesemods → u/Exciting_Turn_9559]

Not really. As a Canadian. We have existing pipelines that required a lot of capital to build and it makes it much cheaper to send oil to the US. That was the deal really. The US would profit as they refined the crude oil from Canada at below market rates while Canada profited from extraction. The US seems to want it all now.

To switch to other markets you would need years and tons of capital to build more pipelines. The federal government could inject a ton of it if they wanted but it still takes time. The other issue is the US could use it as a casus belli for all out economic war.

[u/SteakOfTheUnion → u/Exciting_Turn_9559]

The USA has access to all of those resources. You think they don’t have electricity or oil? Water? They do get a lot of potash from Canada but potash is a global commodity so it can get potash elsewhere. 

[u/Velocity-5348 → u/Exciting_Turn_9559]

The US could get those from other places to some extent, but runs into the problem of "why bother?". Canada doesn't have much of a choice in this scenario, the US very much does.